Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 262251 AAA
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
551 PM CDT Mon Oct 26 2020

.DISCUSSION...

Updated to include the 00Z aviation discussion below...

&&

.AVIATION...

Widespread SHRA and VCTS will be possible at the NRN terminals
through tonight and early Tue...while locations further south
will see scattered RA and patchy DZ into the overnight period. The
SERN terminals should remain dry...though some patchy DZ may
still be seen at PBF or LLQ. Rain chances decrease from SE to NW
during the day on Tue...with most areas expected to be dry by Tue
afternoon. However...CIGS should remain low through this TAF
period.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 238 PM CDT Mon Oct 26 2020)

SHORT TERM...Tonight Through Wednesday

Early this afternoon, frontal boundary remained over Louisiana
with attendant low pressure over deep east Texas. Aloft, deepening
low pressure was located over the desert southwest. And, Tropical
Storm Zeta was located between the Yucatan Peninsula and Cuba.

Zeta should become a hurricane over the next few hours, and
continue to move into the Gulf of Mexico. At the same time, the
upper low will send several waves through the region, which will
interact with the boundary stalled to the south of Arkansas. This
will result in periods of rain, with a few embedded thunderstorms.
This will be most likely in the northwest half of Arkansas, as
northeast surface flow will bring drier air into the southeast
half.

Precip coverage should increase over central and southern Arkansas
by Wednesday, as the stalled boundary to the south pushes back to
the north as the closed upper low shifts into the southern
Rockies. Also, with the approach of Zeta to the central Gulf Coast
Region, uplift should be enhanced over northern and central
Arkansas, as Zeta interacts with the frontal boundary.

LONG TERM...Wednesday Night Through Monday

It still looks to be a rainy start to the forecast period as a
stout H500 low approaches from the west and Tropical Storm Zeta
approaches the northern Gulf Coast. Expect 1 to 1.5 inches of rain
to fall across northern portions of the state on Thursday, with
less than an inch of rainfall anticipated elsewhere. Tropical
Storm Zeta is expected to reach Hurricane strength before making
landfall late Wednesday, and should remain east of Arkansas.

The aforementioned low pressure system will move over the state and
push east of the region by Friday morning. Winds will shift to the
north behind the low with an associated cold front moving trough.
This will help bring cooler and drier air into the state with sunny
skies and tranquil weather returning for the weekend.

Temperatures will be on the cool side through the period, with lows
in the 30s and 40s and highs in the 50s and 60s. Some locations
across the north could see low temperatures drop into the mid 30s
later this week, but it still looks to remain above freezing so
wintry precipitation is not anticipated at this time.

&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&

$$

Aviation...62



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