Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 261138
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
638 AM CDT Tue Oct 26 2021

.AVIATION...

Upper level high pressure over the region will slide to the east
today with east to southeast winds continuing. Winds will increase
across the northern terminals late in the period as a strong
upper system approaches. Moisture will increase as the system
approaches with VFR conditions becoming MVFR with time. No
precipitation is expected this TAF period.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 305 AM CDT Tue Oct 26 2021)
DISCUSSION...

Short Term...Today through Wednesday night

Latest satellite imagery shows mainly clear conditions over the
region this morning sans some high level clouds over north central
Arkansas and some lower clouds moving into the NE corner of the
state. Upper level ridging will crest over the state later today but
exit quickly off to the east this evening. While there will be an
increase in primarily high level moisture, overall a pleasant day is
expected with mainly clear skies and high temperatures in the upper
60s to lower 70s.

Meanwhile, the progressive weather pattern of late will continue
with a deep and significant trough working its way through the
intermountain west. This system will emerge into the western high
plains by the end of the day bringing widespread rain to the CWA for
the second half of the short term period.

As the western system exits the Rockies, lee side cyclogenesis
will initiate over the central high plains. Surface low pressure
expected to move to the southeast and into west central Arkansas
by late Wednesday and into northeast Arkansas by the end of the
period.

Moisture will be drawn into the state as the system approaches with
widespread showers developing in advance of the approaching warm
front. Widespread showers and isolated thunderstorms will initiate
over the western part of the state late tonight and become
widespread across the state Wednesday and Wednesday night. The
overall severe weather threat is minimal with just a brief window
over primarily the south when the warm sector moves through.

Rainfall will average out to around an inch or two for most parts of
the state with locally higher amounts expected. With precipitation
falling over a day or two and overall dry conditions, widespread
water concerns are not expected although some localized flooding can
not be discounted.

LONG TERM...Thursday Through Monday

An upper level closed low will be situated over AR at the start of
the long term period...with chances for SHRA expected to continue as
moisture wraps around the upper low on the west side as it slowly
shifts east. These chances for SHRA will continue Thu into early
Fri...before chances decrease as the upper low begins to exit to the
east by Fri afternoon. Drier air will move into the state as this
upper low moves away from the region. Some breezy NW winds will be
seen Thu into Fri as the SFC pressure gradient will be fairly tight
over the region. Due to cloud cover and the NWRLY winds...temps will
remain cool for Thu and Fri...with highs in the 50s and 60s. Lows
Fri morning will be in the 40s to low 50s.

By the weekend...expect winds to relax over time as the SFC pressure
gradient relaxes. Decreased cloud cover and lower winds will allow
temps to warm some over the weekend...with highs back into the 60s
and 70s. Lows will be cooler however due the lighter winds and dry
air...with lows Sat and Sun mornings in the 40s for most
areas...though some upper 30s cannot be ruled out. Flow aloft will
become  somewhat SWRLY for early next week...though the forecast
should remain generally dry...and temps just a tad warmer than over
the weekend.

&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&

$$


Aviation...56


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