Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 232027
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
227 PM CST Sat Feb 23 2019

.SHORT TERM...Tonight Through Monday

Latest satellite imagery and surface obs show clearing skies across
the western portions of the Natural State as a cold front surges
through the state. The surface low was last located across the
eastern portions of Kansas, and should continue pushing northeast
through the afternoon and evening. Lingering thunderstorms, some of
which are strong to marginally severe, continue across the far
eastern sections of the state. A very narrow window for severe
weather, mainly strong winds and tornadoes, persists across the far
southeast corner of Arkansas as a warm front remains draped across
the southeast, generally south of I-40. However, the better
likelihood of severe weather is east of our forecast area.

As clear skies begin to work into the area, expect winds to increase
and become gusty as stronger winds just off the surface mix down.
Sustained winds could reach 15-25 mph, with higher gusts up to 30
mph possible. We could see some wrap-around moisture across the far
northwestern sections of the area, which could bring some cloud
cover back to the forecast. Conditions should remain dry through
the end of the short term period as zonal flow pattern takes over.

Temperatures will be well above normal today, with high temperatures
in the mid 60s to lower 70s. Lows overnight will drop into the upper
20s across the northwest, and range to the lower 40s across the
southeast. Sunday and Monday temperatures will be mild, with lows
in the 30s and highs in the 50s and 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM...Monday Night Through Saturday

No major changes made to the long term portion of the forecast this
afternoon as long term model solutions remain in somewhat good
agreement. The flow aloft will remain largely zonal with no major
systems expected to approach the forecast area.

At the start of the period, surface flow will largely be out of the
south but by mid-week as a cold front moves through and ridging
builds in north of the state a north to northeasterly flow will
setup. Some rain chances will also be possible as lift increases due
to some weak shortwave energy aloft passing over the area.

Temperatures will be near normal through most of the period, with
rainfall amounts generally less than one half inch across the state.
Hopefully, this will help many locations start to dry out in the
wake of the heavy rainfall and flooding noted in some areas.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     37  54  28  54 /  10  10   0   0
Camden AR         40  60  34  62 /   0  10   0   0
Harrison AR       33  50  25  55 /   0   0   0   0
Hot Springs AR    38  57  31  58 /   0   0   0   0
Little Rock   AR  39  57  32  57 /   0  10   0   0
Monticello AR     43  58  35  60 /  10  10   0   0
Mount Ida AR      36  57  30  59 /   0   0   0   0
Mountain Home AR  34  51  26  54 /   0   0   0   0
Newport AR        38  54  29  53 /  10  10   0   0
Pine Bluff AR     41  57  33  58 /  10  10   0   0
Russellville AR   36  57  30  57 /   0   0   0   0
Searcy AR         37  56  29  55 /  10  10   0   0
Stuttgart AR      40  56  33  57 /  10  10   0   0
&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Wind Advisory until midnight CST tonight FOR Arkansas-Baxter-
Boone-Desha-Fulton-Independence-Izard-Jackson-Lawrence-Lincoln-
Marion-Monroe-Newton-Prairie-Randolph-Searcy-Sharp-Stone-White-
Woodruff.

&&

$$

Short Term...CROSS / Long Term...67



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