Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39
000
FXUS64 KLZK 230029
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
629 PM CST Thu Feb 22 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 236 PM CST Thu Feb 22 2024

Some convection starting to get underway across the northern part of
the state, along and ahead of a cold front pushing into NW Arkansas.
Front will push across the state tonight, with precipitation
generally remaining across the northern and eastern halves of the
state.

Somewhat cooler and drier air will filter in behind the front, but
the cooling effect will not be excessive, with highs tomorrow
generally topping out in the 60s. NW flow will develop aloft, and
high pressure will continue to settle into the area through
Saturday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday Night through next Thursday)
Issued at 236 PM CST Thu Feb 22 2024

Upper flow will become more zonal during the early part of next week
with several perturbations crossing the Rockies and supporting
persistent lee cyclogenesis. The resulting pressure gradient will
yield breezy Srly flow and associated thermal/moisture advection
locally with a broad warm sector established by Tues (for reference,
highs Tues and Wed afternoon will reach the upper 70s to low 80s F
for all of AR). A pronounced dryline to our W will serve as the Wrn
terminus of rich BL moisture.

Meanwhile, a large trough will advance Ewrd and emerge in the lee of
the Rockies by Wed with an elongated corridor of sfc pressure falls
spreading along a SW-to-NE oriented front draped across the central
Plains and Great Lakes. While 22/12Z guidance maintains broad
agreement, confidence in fcst evolution remains low regarding severe
potential Tues and Wed. Several complicating factors are evident in
the data: (1) phasing issues between a Srn stream impulse ejecting
ahead of the incoming Wrn trough; (2) notable timing discrepancies
among medium-range solutions; (3) orientation of the upper trough
and associated dynamic fields and mass response; (4) likelihood of
an EML and associated inhibition across the warm sector.

It does still appear that dynamic support will be sufficient for
organized convection, although the presence of a stronger EML and
lack of significant cooling aloft could diminish what would
otherwise be a more substantial reservoir of thermodynamic
instability, especially on Tues. By Wed, convective probabilities
will likely be maximized as the aforementioned sfc front overtakes
the dryline to our W and races thru the state. Severe weather still
appears possible somewhere in or near the area prior to frontal
passage, but will need to await further consensus among model
solutions before locking in a more specific fcst.

As sfc ridging settles in behind the front on Thurs, more seasonable
air will filter in from the NW to end the period.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 625 PM CST Thu Feb 22 2024

Mainly VFR conds were noted across area terminals. Scattered
SHRA/TSRA were moving across Cntrl/Srn terminals attm, reducing
conds to MVFR in some instances. This activity developed along
and ahead of an advancing cold front. Behind the front, winds
will switch the NW and skies will become SKC. Winds on Friday may
gust in the 15 to 25 knot range. Precip should wind down before
midnight tonight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     46  66  42  61 /  50   0   0   0
Camden AR         50  70  44  71 /   0   0   0   0
Harrison AR       42  63  39  61 /   0   0   0   0
Hot Springs AR    49  68  44  69 /  20   0   0   0
Little Rock   AR  49  70  45  67 /  40   0   0   0
Monticello AR     52  70  47  68 /  20   0   0   0
Mount Ida AR      47  68  43  70 /  20   0   0   0
Mountain Home AR  43  64  39  60 /   0   0   0   0
Newport AR        45  64  42  60 /  60   0   0   0
Pine Bluff AR     49  67  45  66 /  30   0   0   0
Russellville AR   46  68  42  67 /  20   0   0   0
Searcy AR         46  67  41  63 /  60   0   0   0
Stuttgart AR      47  65  44  63 /  50   0   0   0

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...53
LONG TERM....69
AVIATION...70


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.