824
FXUS64 KLZK 111142
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
642 AM CDT Sat Apr 11 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 140 AM CDT Sat Apr 11 2026

-Well above normal temperatures through much of the period

-Occasional chances for thunderstorms from Sunday through much of next
 week

-The most widespread/heaviest precip expected across western AR

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 140 AM CDT Sat Apr 11 2026

There aren`t many significant changes to the forecast this morning
as the large scale pattern over the next 7 days or so remains fairly
similar to what has been advertised recently. Looking at the H500
level, a persistent ridge will generally reside over the Gulf
extending northeastward across the SE US. Extending north of this
feature, a ridge axis will move from the middle of the country
eastward and will largely be in place across the eastern US.
Looking across the western US, a robust cyclone will move onshore
along the northern CA coast Sunday and will slowly weaken after
moving inland. With time, this cyclone will open and elongate
before ejecting E/NE across the middle of the country later next
week. What this means for much of the Central and Southern Plains
is persistent mid-level SW flow aloft. Well above normal
temperatures and abundant moisture will be pumped northeastward.
As pieces of shortwave energy aloft move across the area, several
rounds of rain and thunderstorms will develop.

For Arkansas, we are generally on the sidelines for much of this
activity as the SE US ridge will largely remain more dominant than
the systems attempting to work against it. So, western Arkansas will
be most favored for precipitation with chances tapering off toward
the MS River. Over the next few days, chances for precip will
increase from Sunday evening into Monday as the ridge to the
south retreats slightly.

By the middle to later part of the upcoming week, the ridge is
expected to flatten as the main western trough moves east across the
country. At the sfc, a cold front will try to approach from the west
on Thursday-Friday and widespread rain and thunderstorms are
expected to develop and move across Arkansas. With the ridge`s
influence weakened, precip may be able to make it across more of
the state.

Overall rainfall amounts will generally be highest across western AR
through the period with little to no precip expected across portions
of far eastern and southeast Arkansas. On Sunday afternoon, as
precip develops across western areas, much drier air will be in
place across portions of eastern and northeast Arkansas. These areas
will see gusty southerly winds during that timeframe. This could
provide an increase to the wildfire danger across mainly NE Arkansas
Sunday afternoon.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 635 AM CDT Sat Apr 11 2026

VFR conds are expected through the TAF cycle. Winds today will be
Srly around 10 kts or less. Mid to high clouds will be seen
through the period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     84  63  82  67 /  10   0  20  50
Camden AR         84  61  84  64 /   0   0  20  60
Harrison AR       81  62  77  65 /  30  10  70  50
Hot Springs AR    83  62  81  64 /  10  10  40  70
Little Rock   AR  85  62  83  66 /  10  10  20  60
Monticello AR     85  62  85  66 /   0   0  10  30
Mount Ida AR      82  62  79  64 /  10  10  60  80
Mountain Home AR  82  62  80  65 /  20  10  40  40
Newport AR        84  62  83  68 /  10   0  10  40
Pine Bluff AR     84  61  84  65 /  10   0  10  50
Russellville AR   84  62  81  65 /  10  10  50  70
Searcy AR         85  59  83  64 /  10   0  10  50
Stuttgart AR      84  62  83  67 /  10   0  10  40

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...70