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426
FXUS63 KMKX 090234
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
934 PM CDT Wed May 8 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

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- Scattered showers expected later Tonight through Thursday,
  with a few rumbles of thunder possible. No severe weather is
  expected.

- Small Craft conditions may occur Thursday due to north winds
  and building waves.

- Periods of showers and a few rumbles of thunder are expected
  Friday evening through Saturday. Strong storms are not
  expected at this time.
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&&

.UPDATE...
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Issued 933 PM CDT Wed May 8 2024

Current radar and satellite imagery do not support
precipitation developing as previously thought. Increasing
clouds and mid to lower level saturation to occur a little later
tonight, so it should be dry through 06Z, and possibly up to
08-09Z. After this time, areas of light rain to spread over
forecast area. Do not expect much in the way of convection.

Northeast surface wind to remain persistant the rest of tonight
into Thursday. This will keep temperatures cool. Rest of
forecast for southern Wisconsin appears to be on track.

KPL
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&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued 400 PM CDT Wed May 8 2024

Tonight through Thursday night:

East winds have already developed in lakeshore counties behind
the lake breeze, with widespread northeast winds developing
tonight ahead of the approaching low pressure system. The low
passes south of us tonight, leaving us with only 50 to 200 j/kg
of MUCAPE in the latest CAM guidance. Scattered rainshowers are
likely tonight, particularly after midnight. A few rumbles of
thunder may occur, but no severe weather is expected at this
time. Clouds and scattered showers linger Thursday, becoming
more isolated later in the day.

Sheppard

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued 400 PM CDT Wed May 8 2024

Friday through Wednesday:

A 40% chance for showers is forecast Friday evening ahead of a
shortwave trough, rapidly approaching from the northwest. The
combination of steepened lapse rates from CAA aloft and lifting
/ triggering from the PVA (both associated with the shortwave)
may allow for some rumbles of thunder, but widespread severe wx
is not expected. A 25% chance for continued shower activity is
forecast on Saturday. A steady cadence of medium-amplitude
troughs in the jet is expected to continue the pattern of
occasional shower / thunderstorm chances through the end of the
forecast period.

Sheppard

&&

.AVIATION...
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Issued 933 PM CDT Wed May 8 2024

VFR conditions should persist up until 09Z Thursday. The airmass
will eventually become saturated with lowering ceilings and MVFR by
12Z. These lower ceilings will continue over all routes on
Thursday with areas of light rain. Additionally, flow off of
Lake Michigan will result in breezy northeast surface winds
late tonight through Thursday evening.

KPL
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&&

.MARINE...
Issued 400 PM CDT Wed May 8 2024

Low pressure of 29.5 inches over Missouri will drift northeastward
into Illinois tonight, then exit east towards the Atlantic Ocean
on Thursday. Variable winds up to 15 kts are expected for the
remainder of the day, followed by steady northeast winds to 20
kts tonight as the low pressure approaches. Winds gradually
back northerly on Thursday, accelerating to around 25 kts over
the southern half of the lake. North winds decelerate Thursday
night as high pressure of 30.0 inches approaches the Upper Great
Lakes.

Sheppard

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...None.
&&

$$

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