Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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000 FXUS63 KMKX 250750 AFDMKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 250 AM CDT Fri Jun 25 2021 .SHORT TERM...
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(Issued 250 AM CDT Fri Jun 25 2021) Today through Saturday: Moist airmass will remain across the area. Northeast quadrant of mcv affecting portions of south central and southeast Wi this morning southeast WI this morning as primary circulation traverses eastward through central IL. This in an area of deep moisture convergence/moisture transport. Have lagged some pops longer today in the southeast due to progs showing pockets of convection pivoting around the circulation for a time. Eventually would expect a subsidence to field to take hold. Some indication the mid level flow will turn more southwest later this afternoon with some return waa into the southwest cwa may bring some chances of shra/tsra there. This hinted at by some of the CAM`s. During the overnight hours mid level flow will be decidedly southwest with a renewed surge of some higher pwat`s. 300 millibar jet streak noted as well. Should see more rain/tsra overspread the area. In fact several rounds of showers and storms likely to affect the area tonight into Saturday. Plenty of cloud cover will limit instability. However soundings are very moist with a period of lower MBE velocities noted later tonight into Saturday morning could result in pockets of heavier and beneficial rainfall. A warm front is proggd to move northward through into the area Saturday. depending how far northward the boundary gets will dictate temps as winds likely to remain east ahead of the front and shift decidedly south or southwest in the wake of the frontal passage. The steadiest convection may lift north of the area as the day goes on with other scattered convection developing, especially with any heating that could evolve should any breaks occur.
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&& .LONG TERM...
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(Issued 250 AM CDT Fri Jun 25 2021) Saturday Night and Sunday: Weak low pressure moving from Iowa through Wisconsin will increase the low level convergence across southern WI as the low level jet ahead of this system re-amplifies and grazes southern WI. The best chance for more widespread showers and storms will be Saturday night, as this enhanced lift affects the area, with the chance for showers continuing through Sunday as the low level trof continues to move slowly eastward across WI. Precipitable water values remain high in the 1.5 to 2" range Saturday night with some decrease on Sunday. Can not rule out heavy rainfall Saturday night due to the high precipitation efficiency expected of the atmosphere during this period in a few locations. In addition, Corfidi Vectors drop less than 10 kts for a period of time overnight as a low level theta-e ridge is draped across southern WI. Sunday Night through Thursday: Periods of unsettled weather and beneficial rainfall are expected to continue during this period across the region. Long wave trof from central Canada will extend south-southwest into the central CONUS for much of this period, as large blocking ridges will persist over the eastern and southeast CONUS as well as upstream across much of the west. Between these two blocking ridges will be the long-wave trof that will carry occasional short waves across the region. In addition, persistent south to southwest low level winds will continue to transport deeper moisture into the area, contributing to the occasional rounds of showers and storms. At this time, it is much too early to try and pin point the most favored times for the precipitation as chance Pops will be in the forecast for much of the period. Seasonal temperatures and more humid conditions can be expected for much of this period as well. Kavinsky
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&& .AVIATION...
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(Issued 250 AM CDT Fri Jun 25 2021) Moist regime in place and this has resulted in some areas of stratus across southern WI. Conditions vary considerably from LIFR to VFR so a tough forecasting scenario. In addition, we are seeing some showers and thunderstorms pivot into southeast WI associated with an MCV moving through IL. These should affect SE WI for at least the morning hours with possibly a bit of this activity persisting into the afternoon hours. More rain and storms look likely overnight into Saturday as a renewed moisture surge arrives. Could see some decent downpours at times especially later tonight into Saturday morning. Expect lower ceilings to prevail with this moist and active pattern. A warm front hen may lift into southern WI on Saturday with winds predominantly east ahead of the front and south or southwest behind the front. Confidence not great on how far north this front will push through southern WI.
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&& .MARINE...
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(Issued 250 AM CDT Fri Jun 25 2021) Main focus this period will be potential for a period of some stronger winds across the far southern reaches of the lake from later morning into early afternoon as an MCV works through that area. Could see some local gusts well into the 30-35 knot range as this moves through. At this point it looks localized and of short duration so will not issue any long duration headline for this feature. But something to keep an eye on. Other concern would be fog. With the moist airmass across the lake the fog coverage could expand but hard to get a handle on extent of this at the moment. Had one report of some fog in mid lake but shoreline locations are featuring a transient regime to the fog. So will not hoist a headline at this time but one may eventually be needed.
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&& .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. LM...None. && $$ Visit us at weather.gov/milwaukee Follow us on Facebook, Twitter, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/NWSMilwaukee www.twitter.com/NWSMilwaukee www.youtube.com/NWSMilwaukee

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