Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
391 FXUS63 KMKX 160805 AFDMKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 305 AM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Snow this morning, especially over the eastern half of the area. 1-2 inches of slushy accumulation from Janesville to Sheboygan and southeast. Lower amounts to the west. - Warmer and windy Monday, with elevated fire weather conditions. - Another strong storm system will impact the Midwest midweek. There is increasing potential for rain and thunderstorms changing to snow Wednesday and Wednesday night for southern Wisconsin. && .SHORT TERM... Issued 305 AM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025 Today through Monday: A swath of precipitation is developing across mainly the eastern half of the area this morning, within an area of low level frontogenesis and ahead of shortwave energy lifting north through the region. Rain has initially been reported, but this will transition to snow quickly as temperatures cool. Warm ground temperatures and marginal air temperatures complicate the accumulation forecast a bit, but overall think there will be a swath of 1-2 inches along and southeast of a line from Janesville northward to Sheboygan. Within this area, there may be a few spots that touch 3 inches, particularly from Milwaukee to Kenosha. Temperatures will rise above freezing later this morning, with a good chance for melting during the afternoon hours. Skies clear late this afternoon into early evening has high pressure builds into the area. Lows tonight will be in the mid to upper 20s. A warmer, breezy day is expected for Monday, with highs rebounding into the mid to upper 50s. South winds will gust as high as 30 MPH, resulting in elevated fire weather conditions as afternoon humidity values fall to between 25 and 35 percent. Boxell && .LONG TERM... Issued 305 AM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025 Monday night through Saturday: Temperatures will continue to warm on Tuesday, as southerly flow continues ahead of deepening low pressure in the High Plains. Highs Tuesday look to reach the mid to upper 60s. Rain and thunderstorm potential will start to increase Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, as that low pushes into southern Iowa and northern Missouri. Rain and a few thunderstorms should persist into the day Wednesday, before cold air rushes into the area from the northwest as the low moves east of the region. This will cause rain to begin to transition to snow. The timing of this transition--both when and how fast--will be highly dependent on the exact track and strength of the surface low. EC and GEFS ensemble members have the surface low tracks generally between about I-80 in Illinois and central Wisconsin, which isn`t a particularly wide spread at this distance, but is a critical difference in this scenario, especially with eventual snow accumulations. Details will come into the better focus over the next few days, but it does look like a combination of thunderstorms, rain, snow, and gusty winds is increasingly likely for the forecast area between Tuesday night and Wednesday night. Relatively quiet weather is favored for Thursday and Friday, with ridging building into the region. Boxell && .AVIATION... Issued 305 AM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025 Precipitation will change from rain to snow early this morning over the eastern half or so of the area. MVFR ceilings and visibility are likely, along with gusty northwest winds. Some brief drops to IFR are possible this morning. Precip will end by mid day, with ceilings lifting and then scattering out by late afternoon. Clear skies are expected tonight with light winds. Boxell && .MARINE... Issued 305 AM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025 Northwest winds will prevail today, becoming variable tonight as a surface ridge shifts across the lake. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for locations north of Milwaukee this morning for the gusty northwest winds. Breezy south winds will then develop Monday as low pressure starts to develop in the Plains. A few gale force gusts as possible Monday afternoon and evening, especially across the central portion of the lake. Another Small Craft Advisory is likely for both winds and waves during this time. Southerly winds will persist into Tuesday as the surface low deepens over the Central Plains. A sharpening warm front across the central portion of the lake will result in southeast to east flow across the northern half of the lake, with southerly winds persisting over the south half. The low is currently expected to cross the far southern part of the lake late Wednesday afternoon or early Wednesday evening, with winds rapidly becoming northwesterly as the low moves east. Gales will be possible during this time, depending on the exact track and strength of the low. Boxell && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. LM...None. && $$ Visit us at weather.gov/milwaukee Follow us on Facebook, Twitter, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/NWSMilwaukee www.twitter.com/NWSMilwaukee www.youtube.com/NWSMilwaukee