000
FXUS63 KMKX 080257
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
857 PM CST Sun Mar 7 2021

.UPDATE...
(Issued 857 PM CST Sun Mar 7 2021)

Strong warm air advection ahead of approaching low pressure trough
is generating an increasing area of mid-level clouds across
northeast IA into southwest and central WI. Expect these clouds to
spread across southern WI overnight into early Monday, with
strong, gusty southwest winds just above the surface. The strong
mixing and waa should keep temperatures mostly above freezing
overnight. A few locations tumbled quickly this evening, but
should rebound a few degrees as the low level winds increase. This
strong boundary layer mixing should prevent any significant fog
development, however can not rule out some patchy low clouds
developing closer to approaching low pressure trof late tonight
into the morning.

Kavinsky

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Issued 210 PM CST Sun Mar 7 2021)

Tonight through Monday night:

Temperatures this afternoon have reached the low to mid 40s, with
filtered sunshine as a batch of cirrus moves through the region.

A shortwave approaching from the Dakotas will pass through the
area tonight, pushing a weak surface trough into southern
Wisconsin, with winds becoming light from the west. Will need to
watch for patchy fog tomorrow morning in a few spots, especially
where the remaining snow pack is most widespread. Lows tonight
should reach the low to mid 30s.

Continued warm advection will help boost temperatures into the 50s
tomorrow, with a few 60s not out of the question south and west of
Madison. Lows tomorrow night will again fall into the low to mid
30s.

Boxell

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Issued 210 PM CST Sun Mar 7 2021)

Tuesday through Sunday:

Deepening low pressure over the central and northern Plains will
allow the surface warm front to lift north into the area Tuesday,
and continue to mix northward on Wednesday. Highs both days are
expected to be in the low 60s for most locations, with readings
perhaps just a touch warmer on Wednesday. South to southwest winds
will be breezy both days, but especially on Wednesday, with some
gusts in the 20 to 30 MPH range at times.

Ascent will start to increase across the area on Wednesday as a
cold front begins to approach from the west, and heights aloft
continue to fall. As moisture increases, we will likely see
isolated to scattered showers expand in coverage through the day.
A few rumbles of thunder will be possible as well, especially
Wednesday evening and night as better moisture and lift arrive.
Right now, a quarter to half inch of rain appears most likely,
with the higher amounts of QPF across the northwestern half of the
forecast area. Since a good deal of the snow pack has been
allowed to melt already, this amount of rain should not cause any
major flooding concerns, though with the ground still partially
frozen and ice in many area rivers, some minor issues could crop
up.

The front will pass through the area Wednesday night, with post
frontal rain lingering into the day on Thursday. The front should
continue to push south over time, with Friday currently looking
dry. Temperatures both days will be cooler but not unreasonable
for mid March, with highs in the low 50s on Thursday and mid to
upper 40s on Friday.

Another wave is expected to move into the region over the weekend,
though right now there is considerable uncertainty regarding
timing and strength of this system.

Boxell

&&

.AVIATION...
(Issued 857 PM CST Sun Mar 7 2021)

Mid-high level clouds will increase across southern WI ahead of
approaching low pressure surface trof overnight. At this time,
expecting ceilings to remain VFR, but increasing low level
convergence may be able to generate some patchy lower ceilings
late tonight into Monday morning, but confidence remains low at
this point. Strong low level boundary layer mixing should
preclude any significant fog development as well. Low level wind
shear will continue overnight, with southwest winds of 45 to 50
knots just off the surface.

Kavinsky

&&

.MARINE...
(Issued 857 PM CST Sun Mar 7 2021)

Will continue Small Craft Advisory for northern nearshore zone
from Port Washington to Sheboygan as expect gusty south to
southeast winds to keep waves higher in this area until the winds
veer more to the southwest late tonight into Monday morning.

Otherwise, increasingly shallow low level temperature inversion
over the Lake Michigan open waters will allow gusty south winds to
occasionally reach the lake surface overnight, with gusts to
around 30 knots ahead of approaching low pressure surface trough.

Kavinsky

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...Small Craft Advisory...LMZ643 until 9 AM Monday.

&&

$$

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