Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
069 FXUS63 KMKX 131932 AFDMKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 232 PM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Smoky conditions aloft and near the surface from Canadian wildfires are expected into tonight, resulting in minor visibility reductions. The Air Quality Alert from the Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources continues across all of southern Wisconsin. - There are increasing chances (30 to 60 percent) for showers and thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night, with 20 to 40 percent chances lingering at times into next weekend. && .SHORT TERM... Issued 232 PM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025 Tonight through Monday night: A southeast lake breeze may develop near the lake from Milwaukee southward late this afternoon, with the light winds. Diurnal cumulus clouds should linger until early evening. High clouds will continue to slowly shift east of the area into this evening. Areas of smoke from Canadian wildfires are expected to continue into tonight, with the persistent northwest flow aloft. Low level mixing into early evening should allow for some of the smoke to mix down toward the surface, so the scent of smoke should linger into at least this evening. Visibility is generally in the 3 to 6 mile range, which will lead to the hazy look to the sky into tonight, with the Air Quality Advisory from the Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources remaining in effect. The smoke should gradually move out of the area and be more confined to northern Wisconsin later tonight into Monday, as southwest winds develop and flow aloft becomes more zonal. There may be some fog in the Wisconsin River Valley overnight into early Monday morning. Light southwest winds tonight will remain so on Monday, with a southeast lake breeze from Milwaukee southward by Monday afternoon. There may be small chances for a shower to develop Monday afternoon in northern parts of the area, near a confluent boundary oriented west to east. Some CAMs are showing this development, with others dry. Given the lack of upward vertical motion, will leave the forecast dry for now. Lows tonight in the lower to middle 60s, with highs Monday in the middle 80s, with humid conditions lingering. Quiet weather should linger into Monday night, as light winds shift south. Lows should be in the middle to upper 60s. Wood && .LONG TERM... Issued 232 PM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025 Tuesday through Sunday: Warm and humid conditions should linger into Tuesday, as south winds persist with highs into the middle to upper 80s. There should be a southeast lake breeze Tuesday afternoon closer to the lake. Zonal flow Tuesday should become west southwest by Tuesday night. A shortwave trough at 500 mb may shift northeast and clip parts of southern Wisconsin Tuesday night into early Wednesday, with some very weak warm air advection. Kept mainly 20 percent chances for showers and a few storms during this time. There may be better chances for showers and thunderstorms later Wednesday into Wednesday night, as low pressure undergoes some cyclogenesis and shifts northeast from the Central Plains into and through southern or central Wisconsin. Warm and humid conditions will linger. There is a fairly well-defined 500 mb shortwave trough that accompanies the low, so there should be decent upward vertical motion. There is ample mean layer CAPE with modest deep layer bulk shear of 20 to 25 knots during this time, along with increasing precipitable water values. Some stronger storms with heavy rainfall appear possible during this period, so something to watch as we get closer to that period. Kept 20 to 50 percent chances for showers and storms Thursday into Thursday night, though most of the upward vertical motion may be southeast of the area by that time, depending on how quickly the low and shortwave trough move out of the region. Some heavy rainfall may occur if the system is slower to move out, with precipitable water values remaining near 2.00 inches at times. Temperatures will depend on the timing of the system as well during this period. High pressure may bring a brief quiet weather period on Friday, with cooler temperatures. 500 mb cluster analysis suggests generally zonal flow over the region into next weekend, with perhaps some chances for showers and storms at times as various systems may move through the region. Kept 20 to 30 percent PoPs for this period for now per ensemble output. Temperatures should remain near seasonal normal values. Wood && .AVIATION... Issued 232 PM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025 A southeast lake breeze may develop from the Milwaukee to Kenosha terminals late this afternoon, though confidence is low so left out of TAFs for now. Scattered diurnal cumulus clouds should linger until early evening. High clouds will continue to slowly shift east of the area into this evening. Areas of smoke from Canadian wildfires are expected to continue into tonight. Some of the smoke should to mix down toward the surface. Visibility is generally in the 3 to 6 mile range, which will lead to the hazy look to the sky into tonight. The smoke should gradually move out of the area and be more confined to northern Wisconsin later tonight into Monday, as southwest winds develop. There may be some fog in the Wisconsin River Valley overnight into early Monday morning. Light southwest winds tonight will remain so on Monday, with a southeast lake breeze from the Milwaukee to Kenosha terminals by Monday afternoon. There may be small chances for a shower to develop Monday afternoon in northern parts of the area. Low confidence in this happening, so will leave the forecast dry for now. Wood && .MARINE... Issued 232 PM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025 Modest south to southwest winds are expected to linger into Monday, as high pressure around 30.0 inches moves across the southern portions of the Great Lakes region. Increasing southerly winds are expected Tuesday into Tuesday night, as a low pressure system around 29.7 inches develops across the Central High Plains. This low should move toward and across the region Wednesday into Wednesday night. Winds may then shift to the north for Thursday into Friday, as high pressure around 30.1 inches develops over the region. Wood && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. LM...None. && $$ Visit us at weather.gov/milwaukee Follow us on Facebook, Twitter, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/NWSMilwaukee www.twitter.com/NWSMilwaukee www.youtube.com/NWSMilwaukee