000
FXUS63 KMKX 202324
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
524 PM CST Mon Jan 20 2020

.UPDATE...

Temps should fall pretty quickly this evening given clear skies
and light winds; expect readings to fall into the low teens by mid
to late evening. Morning lows will bottom out in the single
digits.

Given the clear skies, light winds, and cold airmass, will need to
watch for a little ground fog development later tonight. This
will likely be most favored in the more sheltered valley areas.

&&

.AVIATION(00Z TAFS)...

The main aviation concern tonight will be the potential for some
light fog to develop during the overnight hours. There is a lot of
uncertainty with this, and it`s possible that little to no fog
develops. MVFR to IFR visibility will be likely with anything
that does develop, though.

Any fog will dissipate after sunrise tomorrow morning. Light and
variable winds overnight will become southwesterly on Tuesday,
with a modest increase in speeds expected later in the day.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 333 PM CST Mon Jan 20 2020)

SHORT TERM...

Tonight through Tuesday Night...Forecast Confidence is High.

The last of the low clouds are finally scattering out this
afternoon and skies should be clear tonight with high pressure
nosing in from the northern Plains. The only uncertainty is the
potential for some light fog to develop. Given low dewpoints and
dry air in place, opted to leave this out of the forecast. Temperatures
should fall into the single digits across southern WI tonight
with an expected inversion. Many models are leaning toward a
slightly warmer forecast, probably due to bias correction, so I
undercut the guidance.

Sunny skies will give way to mid level clouds moving in by Tuesday
evening. Highs tomorrow will be in the lower 20s, similar to
today. Lows Tuesday night will be more mild than tonight, with a
quick drop-off in the evening and then gradual warming overnight.

LONG TERM...

Wednesday and Wednesday Night...Forecast Confidence is Medium/High...

The next system is expected to start pushing in from the west
Wednesday along a frontal boundary with some influence from an upper
level shortwave. There remains some uncertainty with the timing as
the low pressure system pulls northeast but generally the western
half of the CWA should see some precipitation, likely snow. However,
accumulations are expected to remain light at this point.

Thursday Through Saturday...Forecast Confidence is Medium...

As the Wednesday system pulls out there may be a lull in the
precipitation as the next system pushes northeast Thursday into
Friday. There still remains plenty of uncertainty in this period
generally with the most of the uncertainty coming from inconsistency
across models in the forcing aloft. Mostly snow is expected for this
period but warmer temperatures may cause some mixed precip. The
system initially expected Friday night looks to have drifted
southeast in its track thus likely not impacting the CWA as much as
initially expected. However, there is still uncertainty in the track
of this system and we expected the track to continue to change so we
will continue to monitor how this system changes.

Sunday Through Monday...Forecast Confidence is Low...

Given the uncertainties in the system track Friday night into
Saturday, Sunday and Monday become very uncertain. Models show very
different solutions in the upper levels with vast differences in
forcing. Thus this period should become more clear as models begin
to more closely align as we get a better idea of what will happen
with the system Friday night into Saturday. However the period look
likely to remain dry at this point.

MARINE...

High pressure spreading into the Great Lakes from the
Northern Plains will bring light winds to the region through
Tuesday morning. Expect increasing southwest winds Tuesday
afternoon into Tuesday night with the departing high. Gale force
gusts are possible over the north third of Lake Michigan Tuesday
night through Wednesday.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...None.
&&

$$

Update...Boxell
Tonight/Tuesday and Aviation/Marine...Boxell
Tuesday Night through Monday...99