Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 061134 AAA
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
634 AM CDT Sat Jun 6 2020

.UPDATE...

Mid level clouds over MN and IA are making their way into
southwest WI this morning. There are a few sprinkles, but nothing
widespread. Expect more sunshine for the afternoon.

&&

.AVIATION(12Z TAFS)...

Plan on dry weather through the period. We will see mid level
clouds roll across southern WI at times today, especially this
morning. More widespread cloud cover with high bases is expected
tonight. Look for increasing southeast winds and scattered mid
level clouds on Sunday.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 347 AM CDT Sat Jun 6 2020)

SHORT TERM...

Today through Sunday...Forecast Confidence is High.

There`s a pleasant weekend in store for southern Wisconsin!
Dewpoints are slowly dropping, with values in the upper 40s north
and lower 50s south. Kenosha and Racine areas still have dewpoints
in the lower 60s, but they will eventually drop too. Expect mostly
sunny skies, although southwest areas may see overcast skies for a
period late this morning. There are showers over northeast Iowa
that are associated with 850mb frontogenesis, but these are
expected to weaken and remain to our southwest today.

We should see high temperatures in the upper 70s to around 80 for
inland areas and around 70 near the lakeshore with a steady
north-northeast breeze today. Dewpoints are expected to be around
50 today, although they may mix lower toward central WI.

Low pressure sitting over the Northern Plains will eject some
energy into MN to bring showers across the Northland. These
showers are expected to miss southern WI, but we will see more
clouds tonight. Low temperatures will generally be in the lower
50s.

Sunday will be another nice day with clearing skies. Increasing
southeast winds with a strong mid level ridge overhead and
increasing 925-850mb temps will give us highs a notch warmer than
today, ranging from around 70 lakeshore to lower 80s well inland.
Dewpoints will have a gradual rise, but should mix out during the
afternoon.

Sunday night through Monday night...Forecast confidence high.

An upper ridge will remain over WI during this period. The
subsidence and ssely winds will bring a warming trend with high
temps possibly reaching 90F over south central WI on Mon. A lake
breeze will keep far ern WI cooler.

LONG TERM...Tuesday through Friday...Forecast confidence medium.

The latest ECMWF and the GFS brings the remnants of Tropical
Storm Cristobal to nw IL and far ern IA by 00Z Wed, which agrees
well with the NHC. PWs of 2-2.3 inches, high pcpn efficiency, and
strong lift all is very favorable for heavy rain and possible
flooding, while the fast speed of the system and track changes
gives some uncertainty to how much rain and potential flooding
will occur. The ECMWF actually produces cyclogenesis Tue nt as a
sharp upper trough swings newd out of the Great Plains into the
wrn Great Lakes. The low pressure area will quickly move nnewd
across WI Tue nt followed by breezy wly winds for Wed and
lingering showers.

For the remainder of the week it is uncertain when a cool Canadian
airmass will arrive. It could occur as early as Thu or hold off
for the weekend.

AVIATION(09Z TAFS)...

Plan on dry weather through the period. We will see mid level
clouds roll across southern WI at times today. More widespread
cloud cover with high bases is expected tonight. Look for
increasing southeast winds and scattered mid level clouds on
Sunday.

MARINE...

High pressure will build over Lake Superior today. Northerly
winds and waves will be elevated over the south half of Lake
Michigan. The high shifts towards the eastern Great Lakes on
Sunday and winds will begin increase out of the southeast in
response to low pressure developing over the Rockies. Remnants of
Tropical Storm Cristobal in the Gulf will reach Wisconsin on
Tuesday. This system combined with a cold front will bring higher
winds to Lake Michigan Tuesday through Wednesday.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...None.
&&

$$

Update...Cronce
Today/Tonight and Aviation/Marine...Cronce
Sunday THROUGH Friday...Gehring


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