782
FXUS63 KMKX 202037
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
337 PM CDT Wed Mar 20 2019

.SHORT TERM...

Tonight Through Thursday Night...Forecast Confidence Is High.

A cold front and advancing 500 mb shortwave trough will move
southeast across the area into this evening. This will continue to
bring scattered rain showers to the area. There could be a brief
light snow shower that mixes in across the far northwestern
portions of the area. Any precipitation amounts will be light.

Low clouds will move into the area tonight and linger into
Thursday morning, before moving out by midday. High pressure to
the southwest of the region will bring dry conditions on Thursday.
Lows tonight should drop into the lower to middle 30s, with highs
Thursday into the upper 40s to around 50.

Another stronger cold front will move southeast through the region
Thursday evening, with gusty north winds behind it. Airmass is
relatively dry with this frontal passage, with the main 500 mb
shortwave trough to the northeast of the area. Kept dry forecast
going for Thursday night. Cooler temperatures should begin to move
in behind the front, on strong cold air advection.

.LONG TERM...

Friday Through Saturday...Forecast Confidence Is Medium.

Lingering influence of mid level cyclonic flow and low level
thermal trough will likely result in a good deal of cloud cover,
as either stratus or stratocu for Friday. Some areas may struggle
to get out of the 30s. Mid level ridging and surface high dominate
for Saturday with much more sunshine likely then with a bump in
temps.

Saturday Night Through Monday...Forecast Confidence Is Medium.

The latest GFS and GEM keep things dry Saturday night while 00z
ECMWF starts to bring some waa induced rain into the southwest
half of the area later in the night. There are still some
differences to work out as the 00z ECMWF shows waa rain Sunday
though a quick end later Sunday or Sunday evening. The 00z ECMWF
had brought a push of colder air in quicker, however the 12z run
has come into better agreement with the GFS showing a slower
southward push of the colder air. The GFS and now the ECMWF as
well, keeps column warmer longer and lingers rain longer into
Sunday night. The models eventually pull the colder southward into
this system, with only the GFS showing more overlap with some
lingering precip potential on Monday, which could result in a bit
of a mix or some brief light snow.

Monday Night Through Wednesday...Forecast Confidence Is Medium.

Chilly low level thermal trough hangs on into Tuesday with the
GFS a colder solution. A waa pattern sets up for Tuesday night
into Wednesday with southwest winds on the uptick and a nice boost
in 850/925 temps so some areas will make a run at or eclipse the
50 degree mark.

&&

.AVIATION(21Z TAF UPDATES)...

Scattered rain showers should move southeast through the area into
this evening, exiting the southeast by 03Z or so. A cold front
will accompany these showers, with winds shifting southwest to
northwest. Ceilings should become VFR in the southeast TAF sites
by 00Z Thursday, before more MVFR ceilings move southeast into the
area this evening and linger into Thursday morning. Skies should
clear out by early afternoon. Northwest winds linger tonight and
become west on Thursday. Some gusts of 15 to 20 knots on
Thursday are possible.

&&

.MARINE...

Southwest winds will shift to the west and northwest with the cold
frontal passage into this evening.

There is a decent shot at 30 to 35 knot gusts over the open
waters later Thursday night into Friday, after a cold front moves
through the region. Gusts to 30 knots may occur over the nearshore
waters as well.

Thus, a Small Craft Advisory may be needed for the nearshore
waters later Thursday night into Friday. Gales may occur over the
open waters, so a Gale Watch or Warning may eventually be needed.

Gusty north winds Sunday night into Monday may reach Small Craft
Advisory levels over the nearshore waters. Gusts may reach 30
knots over the open waters during this time.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...None.
&&

$$

Tonight/Thursday and Aviation/Marine...Wood
Thursday Night through Wednesday...Collar