Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL

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FXUS64 KMOB 231206

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
706 AM CDT Mon Jul 23 2018

.DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.


12Z issuance...
Majority VFR conditions expected through the forecast period
though isolated thunderstorms are possible in the afternoon hours.
Anticipate light west to north winds throughout the central Gulf
coast region becoming light and variable in the evening. DJ/17


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 509 AM CDT Mon Jul 23 2018/

NEAR TERM /Now Through Monday night/...Elongated trough shifts
to the east of Alabama today and locally generates a weak occluded
surface low over southern Georgia. This low then provides a light
northernly flow over the region. Though the atmosphere is
considerable more stable than it has been the last few days some
instability and moisture still persist mainly focused in our
northeast counties. The modest 1500 J/kg CAPE should be sufficient
for sparse daily convection driven by diurnal heating with Max
temperature reaching the low 90s in the afternoon hours.

Models are indicating in the evening a weak shortwave impulse
dipping south from northern Alabama may initiate some additional
thunderstorms over the eastern half of the forecast area. In the
overnight hours, the trough continues to drive drier more stable air
south with PWATS falling to 1.55 inches. DJ/17

SHORT TERM /Tuesday Through Wednesday night/...An upper trough
over the eastern states will gradually weaken through mid week as
an upper ridge builds eastward from the western states. Isolated
to scattered rain chances expected through Wednesday with the
best chances over eastern parts of the area closer to the trough
axis. Lower rain chances over the western areas due to the
increasing influence from the upper ridge. Highs will generally be
in the low 90s and with lower dewpoints than the past few days,
heat index values will only top out in the mid and upper 90s. /13

LONG TERM /Thursday Through Sunday/...The upper ridge will shift
westward through the end of the week as a broad upper trough
develops over the eastern states. This will bring a return to a
more typical summertime convective pattern through the period with
generally scattered afternoon and early evening showers and
thunderstorms. /13

MARINE...The weak surface low to the northeast creates a light
northerly flow locally with offshore 2-3 feet wave heights
decreasing in the beginning of the week. As the high over the
southeastern Gulf of Mexico becomes more established, winds shift
out of west southwest becoming more light to moderate by mid week.
This regime is expected to persist throughout the week. DJ/17




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