000
FXUS64 KMOB 281923
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
123 PM CST Tue Nov 28 2023

...New AVIATION, NEAR TERM...

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 123 PM CST Tue Nov 28 2023


VFR conditions will prevail through the next 24 hours with light
north to northeast surface winds. /12


&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Now through Thursday) Issued at XXXXXX

A dry flow pattern will continue through early Thursday, but a
few isolated showers will be possible by late Thursday afternoon
over interior southeast MS as the next storm system begins to take
shape to our west. Surface high pressure will be drifting east
across our area tonight and Wednesday, bringing mostly clear skies
and cool/cold temperatures with it. The ridge axis will be more or
less centered right over our area late tonight and Wednesday. By
Wednesday night into Thursday the center of the surface high will
have shifted east of our forecast area, with a moderating return
flow beginning to set up for us. Mid/upper flow will be more or
less zonal through late Wednesday, but as a shortwave troughing
and developing surface low pressure moves into north Texas by
Thursday mid/upper flow will become more southwesterly. The low
level return flow off the Gulf and increasing southwesterly flow
aloft will bring a surge of higher dewpoints into the region from
the southwest by the end of the near term period, but as mentioned
rain chances will not increase until we move into Friday and the
weekend.

With regard to temperatures, the Freeze Warning remains in effect
tonight for the entire forecast area except for locations along
the immediate coast. Temperatures tonight will fall into the upper
20s and lower 30s from interior southeast MS eastward across
interior southwest and south central AL, low to mid 30s along the
I-10 corridor and then in the upper 30s and lower 40s closer to
the coast. A gradual warmup will begin on Wednesday and persist
into Thursday. Highs on Wednesday will be in the upper 50s and
lower 60s, with the cooler temps over interior southwest and south
central AL. Lows Wednesday night will not be quite as cold as
tonight, generally ranging from the low to mid 30s inland areas
and low to mid 40s closer to and along the coast. A few inland
locations could briefly drop to right around the freezing mark,
but for now looks to be only a few isolated locations and only
briefly right around sunrise Thursday morning, so will not issue a
Freeze Watch for Wednesday night at this time. We will continue
to monitor and see if temperature trends over the inland areas
cool any before making any firm decision on that. Thursday high
temperatures mainly in the low to mid 60s across most of the area,
but a few isolated upper 50s possible over south central AL east
of I-65 and a some upper 60s possible along the immediate coast.
/12


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      33  60  41  66  57  74  62  72 /   0   0   0  10  70  70  60  70
Pensacola   39  58  44  68  59  74  65  72 /   0   0   0  10  60  80  60  70
Destin      41  60  46  67  59  75  67  74 /   0   0   0  10  50  80  60  70
Evergreen   28  59  31  62  46  74  59  71 /   0   0   0  10  70  80  50  70
Waynesboro  30  60  35  61  49  73  56  67 /   0   0   0  10  90  60  40  60
Camden      28  57  31  60  44  72  56  67 /   0   0   0  10  80  70  50  70
Crestview   29  59  32  63  49  75  62  74 /   0   0   0   0  60  80  60  70

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 7 AM CST Wednesday for
     ALZ051>060-261>264.

FL...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 7 AM CST Wednesday for
     FLZ201-203-205.

MS...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 7 AM CST Wednesday for
     MSZ067-075-076-078-079.

GM...None.
&&

$$

This product is also available on the web at:
www.weather.gov/mob