624
FXUS64 KMOB 252329
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
529 PM CST Sat Jan 25 2025

...New AVIATION...

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 528 PM CST Sat Jan 25 2025

VFR conditions prevail through the period. Light and variable
winds overnight turn southeasterly by Sunday afternoon. 07/mb

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 339 PM CST Sat Jan 25 2025/

..New NEAR TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

NEAR TERM...
(Now through Sunday Night)
Issued at 339 PM CST Sat Jan 25 2025

25.12Z upper air maps indicate the deep south is under a
predominantly zonal (west to east) flow aloft. At the surface, a
strong (1030mb) ridge of high pressure was positioned over the
southeast while a quasi-stationary front was draped over the
southern Plains. An attendant wave of frontal low pressure along
the boundary was positioned over western OK. Well southeast of the
front, satellite imagery indicates clouds beginning to expand
northward over southeast TX. There are indications that moisture,
caught up in the westerlies aloft, will be heading on an eastward
trajectory bringing an increase in mainly high based clouds to the
area beginning late tonight and into Sunday. As southern plains
front slips southeast to the Lower MS Valley later in the day
Sunday and into Sunday night, forecasters begin to see the
probability of showers re-entering the forecast. Some small timing
differences rain start late in the day primarily over the
northwest zones noted between the physicals and short range
ensembles. Sunday night looks to be best chance of showers, with
higher (60%+) PoPs aligned up along and north of US Highway 84 and
20-40% chances the further south.

With the high off to the east and an evolving light onshore flow off
the Gulf, overnight lows are favored to trend more modified than
what we have seen over the past several nights. Numbers range
lower to mid 30s interior to mid 40s closer to the coast. Could
see some patchy to widespread frost development late in the night
with the better potential of this over the interior. Highs Sunday
warm mostly into the lower to mid 60s. Sunday night, a chilly
rain, but nothing impactful as lows mostly well into the 40s. /10

LONG TERM...
(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 339 PM CST Sat Jan 25 2025

A predominantly zonal flow pattern aloft will continue across the
local region through Thursday as longwave troughing digs into the
northeast US. This trough will gradually move into the western
Atlantic by the end of the week. Additionally, a cutoff upper low
over the southwest US will slowly move to the east through
midweek. By time it reaches Texas/Oklahoma, it will quickly eject
to the northeast, providing us with southwesterly flow aloft. At
the surface a weakening cold front will be moving into the Deep
South at the start of the period, bringing with it scattered to
numerous showers. This front will stall and wash out somewhere
over the local area on Monday, and rain chances will decrease by
Monday afternoon and into the evening hours. We dry out through
Tuesday night as shortwave ridging moves overhead and high
pressure builds over Florida. Rain chances increase once again on
Wednesday as another front attempts to move through the local
area. After drying out once again on Thursday, rain chances ramp
up Friday night into Saturday as the cutoff low ejects
northeastward and another front approaches the area. Temperatures
gradually warm through Wednesday, with highs reaching the low 70s
and lows ranging from the mid 40s north to the mid 50s south.
Temperatures decrease a bit for Thursday and Friday as the midweek
front moves through, and they eventually rebound by Saturday. /96

MARINE...
Issued at 339 PM CST Sat Jan 25 2025

No impactful marine weather through the middle of next week. Winds
light. Seas 2 feet or less. By Thursday, there are indications that
as a reinforcing high noses into the southeast combined with
lowering surface pressures over east TX with next system, the
pressure gradient force increases to cause a net increase in east
northeast winds and a build in seas. /10

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      39  65  49  66  46  66  51  71 /   0   0  40  40  10   0   0  30
Pensacola   45  62  50  66  49  65  54  70 /   0   0  20  30  10   0   0  20
Destin      46  62  52  65  50  64  55  69 /   0   0  10  30  10   0   0  20
Evergreen   33  64  44  61  42  65  48  72 /   0   0  50  60  10   0   0  30
Waynesboro  34  61  46  59  40  64  47  71 /   0  20  70  60   0   0   0  40
Camden      33  62  44  57  39  63  47  70 /   0  10  70  70  10   0   0  30
Crestview   33  63  44  65  44  66  49  72 /   0   0  20  30  10   0   0  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

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