541
FXUS64 KMOB 140029
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
728 PM CDT Mon May 13 2024

...New AVIATION...

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 728 PM CDT Mon May 13 2024

MVFR to occasional IFR ceilings overnight, with periods of showers
and a few thunderstorms late this evening and possibly continuing
overnight. Some thunderstorm activity may move into the coastal
counties of AL late this evening, around 04z-05z and then possibly
continue east across portions of the western FL panhandle overnight.
Brief periods of LIFR ceilings and visibilities will be possible
in and near the thunderstorms. Convection should be east of the
western FL panhandle by around 10z-12z Tuesday morning. There is a
chance for a few strong storms at the TAF site, but at this time
it appears that the strongest convection should be just offshore
to our south (but we will have to monitor this). Surface winds
will primarily be out of the southeast and south around 10 to 15
mph at TAF sites, but could be much stronger and gusty, as well
as more variable near any over the potentially stronger storms
over night. DS/12

&&

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
Issued at 728 PM CDT Mon May 13 2024
late Tuesday morning into the afternoon, rain chances will
decrease as a drier airmass moves into the area.

A line of strong to severe storms is currently moving east across
south central AL and into southeast LA at this time, and a Severe
Thunderstorm Watch is in effect for that area (as well as the
coastal MS counties) through midnight. As of now, our southeast
MS or southwest AL counties are NOT included in the watch. The
convection from earlier in the day has stabilized the airmass
across most of our forecast area, and SPC Mesoanalysis continues
to show that the northern edge of the greatest instability
stretches east-southeast from southern LA and into the Gulf just
to the south of AL and the western FL panhandle. Current thinking
is that this most unstable airmass will remain just offshore and
the current line of storms over LA will ride the northern edge of
instability into the Gulf, just to our south. It is still unclear
as to how much, if any, the airmass over our land zones will be
able to destabilize through this evening. We still think that the
greatest risk of any additional severe weather for our area will
remain just offshore, but the coastal counties will likely see
some thunderstorm activity move in from the west by around 10pm to
midnight. It isn`t out of the question that a storm or two could
become strong to severe over the coastal counties, but that
possibility (while not zero) remains fairly low at this time. At
this time we are not expected any Severe Weather Watches for our
area, but we will continue to monitor trends. Heavy rain remains a
possibility, especially near the coast and the Flash Flood Watch
remains in effect for coastal Alabama and northwest Florida
through Tuesday morning. By late Tuesday morning into the
afternoon, rain chances will decrease as a drier airmass moves
into the area. DS/12

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 249 PM CDT Mon May 13 2024/

..New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

NEAR TERM...
(Now through Tuesday)
Issued at 249 PM CDT Mon May 13 2024

The line of storms that brought the damaging wind gusts and heavy
rain to the area this morning have moved east with lingering light
rain across coastal Alabama and Florida. In the wake of these
storms, a rain cooled, stable airmass exists. The question is just
how much airmass recovery can take place. Current thinking is that
the most unstable airmass will remain offshore, keeping any
additional severe risk offshore as well. Near term CAMS have
consolidated on the next round of storms moving mainly offshore
or possibly skirting the coast tonight. This will be something to
watch through the evening hours to see if the airmass is able to
recover more than expected. Heavy rain remains a possibility,
especially near the coast and the Flash Flood Watch remains in
effect for coastal Alabama and northwest Florida through Tuesday
morning. High rain chances continue into Tuesday morning as a
broad southwest flow continues ahead of an upper level trough. By
late Tuesday morning into the afternoon, rain chances will
decrease as a drier airmass moves into the area.

Low temps tonight will be in the low to mid 60s inland to low 70s
along the coast. Highs on Tuesday will be in the low to mid 80s.
/13

SHORT TERM...
(Tuesday night through Thursday night)
Issued at 249 PM CDT Mon May 13 2024

Axis of upper level storm system/trough axis is progged to be
aligned from the Mid MS River Valley southward to the central Gulf
Coast Tuesday night. There appears to be just enough, albeit weak
lift lingering Tuesday night to support only a slight chance of
showers/storms over the eastern zones from Greenville AL
southward to east of Navarre FL. After midnight, as drier air
begins to filter in from west to east and expand, rain chances
end over the land zones. The upper trof pivots eastward Wednesday
and with the surface front well east and south of the local area
along with drier deep layer air in place, rain-free weather is on
tap Wednesday/Wednesday night.

Low temperatures in the lower/mid 60s interior and lower/mid 70s
coast Tuesday night are well above normal. Wednesday night lows,
see a lowering trend to a range of 58 to 63 interior to upper half
of the 60s coast. Highs Wednesday range mostly 84 to 88. /10

Along the beaches, the rip current risk remains High through mid
week. /10

LONG TERM...
(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 249 PM CDT Mon May 13 2024

The southern stream remains active going into the medium range. An
evolving upper level storm system over TX sends rounds of
shortwave energy eastward through a nearly zonal upper flow
pattern over the deep south Thursday and Friday. Increased ascent
will operate on a signal of deep Gulf moisture return resulting
in an increase in showers/storms. There are some indications of
yet another heavy rain event possibly setting up to close out the
week. As far as strong to potentially severe storms, guidance
points to Friday. All depends on position of the warm-front late
in the week. Model solutions differ on the evolution of the
boundary/warm sector and degree of moisture, lift, instability,
and shear. Stalled front may linger near-by into the weekend to
keep a mention of a small PoP going.

Daytime highs through the period mostly well into the 80s.
Exception being Friday where overcast conditions and higher
coverage of showers/storms keep highs tapered back, 78 to 83.
Lows moderate to well into the 60s interior to lower 70s
coast. /10

MARINE...
Issued at 249 PM CDT Mon May 13 2024

A moderate to strong south to southwest flow will develop tonight
and continue into Tuesday. A light westerly flow develops on
Wednesday and becomes southerly for the end of the week. /13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      68  85  66  87  64  87  69  83 /  80  80  10   0   0  10  40  60
Pensacola   71  83  71  85  68  86  72  83 /  80  80  20   0   0  10  30  60
Destin      72  82  72  85  70  85  72  82 /  80  80  20   0   0   0  20  60
Evergreen   66  84  64  87  61  88  66  82 /  70  80  20   0   0   0  30  70
Waynesboro  65  84  61  86  61  88  64  80 /  70  70   0   0   0  10  40  70
Camden      65  82  63  84  60  86  65  80 /  70  80  20   0   0   0  30  70
Crestview   66  84  65  87  62  90  66  83 /  80  80  20   0   0   0  20  70

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...Flood Watch through Tuesday afternoon for ALZ261>266.

     High Rip Current Risk through Thursday morning for ALZ265-266.

FL...Flood Watch through Tuesday afternoon for FLZ201>206.

     High Rip Current Risk through Thursday morning for FLZ202-204-
     206.

MS...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 7 PM CDT Tuesday for
     GMZ630>632-634-650-655-670-675.

&&

$$

This product is also available on the web at:
www.weather.gov/mob