Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL

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FXUS64 KMOB 262346
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
546 PM CST Wed Feb 26 2020

.AVIATION /27.00Z Issuance/...VFR conditions expected tonight
through Thursday. A few widely scattered showers will be possible
early this evening over the western Florida panhandle but ending
by mid evening. Moderate to strong northerly winds at around 15
knots with gusts up to 20 or 25 knots near the coast this
evening, subsiding later tonight into tomorrow. No restrictions to
surface visibility expected. /12

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 400 PM CST Wed Feb 26 2020/

NEAR TERM UPDATE /Now Through Thursday/...We have dropped the
wind advisory as winds don`t seem to be as gusty as previously
expected. We still expect some gusts this afternoon and evening
between 20 to 30 mph, but should remain below wind advisory
criteria tonight. BB/03

PREVIOUS NEAR TERM...We are FINALLY looking at the start of an
extended period of drier weather. A positively tilted longwave
trough centered over the southern Great Lakes will continue to
progress eastward today into tonight. As the upper trough moves
east, a subtle embedded shortwave will round the base and move
across our area. In response to the shortwave, a reinforcing
boundary over central Mississippi will surge southward and a few
showers will be possible this afternoon. Most of the shower
activity will be focused northwest of the I-65 corridor. Given the
lack of deep layer moisture and the shortwave quickly pulling out
of the area, rain will be light with any showers that do develop.
The biggest issue during the near term will be gusty winds along
the coast. Wind gusts up to 25 to 30 mph will be possible this
afternoon and evening.

As the trough moves off the east coast, skies will clear on
Thursday, but temperatures will remain cold as cooler air surges
behind the trough. Temperatures tonight will be in the mid 30s
tonight and likely struggle to get out of the mid 50s tomorrow.
BB/03

SHORT TERM /Thursday night Through Saturday night/...A broad upper
level trough spanning the eastern CONUS late Thursday will gradually
shift eastward toward the Eastern Seaboard and adjacent western
Atlantic Friday into Saturday. Surface high pressure centered over
the western Gulf of Mexico late Thursday and Friday will build
eastward across the rest of the Gulf on Saturday before shifting
toward the southeastern states and the FL peninsula by late Saturday
night. Deep layer dry air will spread across our forecast area along
the base of the trough axis Thursday night and Friday and also
within developing northwest flow aloft Friday night through Saturday
night. POPs remain nil through the short term period. Another chilly
night is expected on Thursday night with lows ranging from 30-33
degrees across most locations along and north of I-10 and in the mid
30s to around 40 near the immediate coast. Lows on Friday night
should be slightly warmer in the mid to upper 30s inland and in the
lower to mid 40s along the coast. Highs Friday and Saturday are
expected to range in the lower to mid 60s. /21

EXTENDED TERM /Sunday Through Wednesday/... Weak shortwave ridging
aloft will build across our region on Sunday, maintaining mostly
clear and dry conditions. The next feature of interest will be a
positively tilted trough that be deepening over the Desert Southwest
on Monday. This system is forecast to translate eastward across the
southern Plains on Tuesday before ejecting eastward or northeastward
by Wednesday. Low level flow southerly flow should prevail across
our region early next week as the surface ridge shifts east and
ahead of the next low pressure system and cold front to our
west/northwest. Low level moisture will be on the increase early
next week with this pattern. Isentropic ascent within moistening
zonal to southwest flow aloft will bring a low chance of rain
showers back into the forecast Monday and Monday night over our
northwest zones and across much of our region by Tuesday. The latest
medium range guidance indicates that a potent shortwave trough will
eject northeastward across either the MS/TN Valleys or possibly a
little farther northward late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning.
Large scale ascent/forcing ahead of this feature may favor an
organizing area of convection that may be set to spread from the MS
Valley and across the Gulf Coast states during the Tuesday
night/Wednesday time frame. A strengthening low level jet, plentiful
deep layer shear, and coincident instability could potentially bring
some severe risk to our area during this time frame, dependent on
where the best forcing is located. Also of concern could be more
locally heavy rainfall either across portions of our area or farther
north/upstream which could have implications on ongoing river
flooding. We will closely monitor the progress of this system over
the next several days. /21

MARINE...Northwesterly to northerly flow will strengthen over the
marine area this evening into Thursday morning as high pressure
builds across the region in the wake of the passage of a cold front.
Seas also build during this time frame. We will keep the Small Craft
Advisory in place until midday Thursday. A moderate to occasionally
strong west to northwest flow will redevelop late Friday through
Saturday as a broad surface ridge of high pressure builds eastward
across the north central Gulf. A Small Craft Advisory may become
necessary again late Friday afternoon into Friday night. Lighter
winds are expected by Saturday as the ridge of high pressure builds
over the north central Gulf, followed by a light to moderate
southerly flow Sunday into Sunday night as the ridge shifts east.
/21

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until noon CST Thursday for GMZ630>636-650-
     655-670-675.

&&

$$

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