Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL

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FXUS64 KMOB 072131

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
331 PM CST Sun Mar 7 2021

.NEAR TERM UPDATE /Now Through Monday/...Upper level ridging is
starting to take hold over the southeastern CONUS as an upper trough
progresses over the east coast. This ridge will maintain its hold
over the region through the near term period. At the surface, high
pressure will settle directly over the southeast today. However,
this feature will begin to slowly migrate east towards the east
coast by late Monday afternoon.

For sensible weather, the aforementioned pattern will result in no
rain chances and persistent dry conditions through Monday. Some
cirrus clouds continue to stream across the region this afternoon,
but clear skies are expected by late tonight through Monday
afternoon. The main takeaway for the near term is that it will be
very dry across the region. Model PWATs show very dry conditions,
ranging between 0.15-0.25 inches this afternoon through Monday. Dew
points have also dropped considerably in the last couple of hours.
Current dew points are in the teens over inland areas, with some
spots reporting dew points as low as 10-12 degrees within the last
hour. Dew point observations closer to the coast are in the mid 20s
to lower 30s. Did further adjust forecast dew points down to account
for this through Monday. Much like today, minimum relative humidity
values are therefore expected to be in the teens over inland areas
and in the lower to mid 20 percent range near the coast on Monday.
Ultimately, these dry conditions will lead to increased risk and
hazard with any burning.

Current temperatures across the local area are generally in the
lower to upper 60s. Expect chilly temperatures tonight due to winds
at or below 5 mph and mostly clear to clear skies. Lows in the mid
to upper 30s are anticipated north of I-10 with upper 30s to lower
40s south of I-10. It will then be a bit warmer on Monday, as highs
are forecast to be in the upper 60s at the coast and in the lower
70s inland. Lastly, there is a MODERATE RISK of rip currents through
Monday. /26


.SHORT TERM /Monday night Through Wednesday night/...Surface and
upper level ridging will continue over the area through the
period. This will continue to result in strong subsidence over the
area with clear skies and a very dry airmass. Precipitable water
values remain well below 1 inch through the period. As the sfc
ridge moves east, a light southeasterly flow develops over the
region with a slight increase in sfc moisture on Wednesday. The
dry airmass will continue to result in large diurnal swings in
temps. Lows in the upper 30s and low 40s inland to mid 40s near
the coast Monday night, warming into the upper 60s and low 70s on
Tuesday afternoon. Lows will gradually modify with mid and upper
40s inland to mid 50s along the coast Tuesday night warming to the
low to mid 50s inland to upper 50s near the coast Wednesday
night. Highs on Wednesday will be in the low to mid 70s. /13


.EXTENDED TERM /Thursday Through Sunday/...Upper level and surface
ridging will continue through the end of the week. Plentiful deep
layer dry air and subsidence will remain in place across our
forecast area through Friday, and PoPs remain zero during this
time frame. Periods of mid-upper level clouds will spread overhead
through the middle to latter half of the week. A large upper low
is expected to develop across the southwestern states late in the
week and eject eastward during the weekend into early next week.
Moisture levels will increase along with clouds ahead of this
system with rain chances increasing this weekend. However,
significant timing differences exist with this system which makes
it difficult to pin down when the highest rain chances will be. As
a result, rain chances will show a modest increase through the
weekend awaiting better model agreement. /13


.MARINE...Northeast winds have decreased this afternoon to be
light to moderate. Winds will shift to be more easterly and increase
to be mainly moderate tonight. Small craft should exercise caution
over the offshore Gulf waters tonight into tomorrow morning.
Moderate southeast winds are then expected by Tuesday. This flow
will then persist through late week, with winds being occasionally
strong during this time. In addition, seas will begin to build once
again by Tuesday and continue to be elevated through Friday. All of
this will lead to at least exercise caution conditions for small
craft, mainly over the open Gulf waters, through much of this next
week. /26




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