234
FXUS64 KMOB 172352
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
652 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024

...New AVIATION...

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 652 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024

Isolated showers and perhaps a brief storm or two will push south
toward the coast this evening, and eventually offshore. A few
showers remain possible near the coast overnight. Brief MVFR to
IFR conditions will accompany the stronger convection. Similar
conditions are possible late tonight where patchy fog develops.
VFR conditions are otherwise expected. Winds will typically be
light and variable. /22

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 332 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024/

..New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

NEAR TERM...
(Now through Wednesday)
Issued at 332 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024

An upper low centered near the Carolinas gradually broadens and
evolves into an upper trof over the eastern states through
Wednesday night. A weak frontal boundary meanders mainly over the
coastal counties through Wednesday before finally moving well
offshore Wednesday night. Plenty of deep layer moisture is
currently in place over the area although progressively drier air
will start to slowly filter into the area from the north this
evening. Have continued with chance to good chance pops for much
of the area this afternoon with slight chance pops for the coastal
counties and extreme southeast Mississippi for early this
evening. Dry conditions prevail for the rest of tonight into
Wednesday morning, although will leave in small pops near the
coast close to the weak frontal boundary. For Wednesday afternoon,
have kept slight chance pops in for the coastal counties and much
of southeast Mississippi, but otherwise dry conditions are
expected through Wednesday night. Lows tonight range from the mid
60s well inland to the lower 70s at the coast, and lows Wednesday
night will be similar. Highs on Wednesday will be in the mid to
upper 80s. A low risk of rip currents is expected through
Wednesday night. /29

SHORT AND LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 332 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024

An upper level trough will continue to slowly move eastward
through the end of the week as an upper level ridge builds over
the southern plains. This pattern places the local area in a
northwesterly to northerly flow during this time. Drier air will
filter into the area from the north with PWATs likely to be 1.5
inches or less through the rest of the week. This drier air along
with the lack of forcing will result in dry conditions. Over the
weekend, the upper level ridge amplifies and builds further east
into much of the Southeastern US which will push the upper trough
out into the western Atlantic. Increasing subsidence across the
area will maintain the dry conditions through the rest of the
period. High temps will generally be in the upper 80s and low 90s
with lows in the lower 60s well inland to lower 70s near the
coast. /13

MARINE...
Issued at 332 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024

No impacts are expected other than higher winds and seas near
storms. /29

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      70  88  69  90  69  91  70  90 /  20  20  10   0   0   0   0   0
Pensacola   73  86  72  89  72  89  73  88 /  20  20  10   0   0   0   0   0
Destin      73  86  73  89  73  89  73  88 /  20  20  10   0   0   0   0   0
Evergreen   67  90  64  91  66  91  67  91 /  10  10  10   0   0   0   0   0
Waynesboro  65  88  63  89  65  89  66  90 /   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Camden      65  87  64  88  65  89  66  89 /   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Crestview   68  88  67  91  67  91  67  90 /  20  20  10   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

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