Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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FXUS63 KMPX 291719
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1119 AM CST Thu Feb 29 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Much warmer today, with a continued warming trend through the
  weekend. Record high temperatures are possible Sunday.

- Elevated fire weather concerns this afternoon.

- Storm system to bring the return of mixed precipitation
  chances for the end of the weekend into early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 254 AM CST Thu Feb 29 2024

Early morning temperatures have dipped into the single digits/low
teens thanks to clear skies and light winds. Our blast of cold air
will be rather short lived, as a surge in temperatures is on tap for
today. In fact, today will be the start of yet another impressive
warming trend which seems fitting for the last day of this
historically warm meteorological Winter season. An expansive 500 mb
ridge will build over the Upper Midwest, setting the stage for the
return of anomalous warmth. A warm front will lift across Minnesota
and Wisconsin through the day, opening the door for an extended
period of southwesterly flow. Surface temperatures, supported by
substantial mid-level warm air advection, will rebound into the mid
40s/low 50s this afternoon. While quiet weather is expected, we do
have to keep an eye on expected favorable fire weather conditions.
Minimum RH values will fall below 30 percent across southeastern
Minnesota and western Wisconsin this afternoon, which will
combine with wind gusts in the 30-35 mph range to elevate fire
weather concerns. Dew points will increase amid the continued
southwesterly flow Friday, resulting in lower fire weather
concerns. Friday`s highs will climb into the mid 50s to lower
60s. The passage of a cold front on Saturday may lower
temperatures into the 40s to the northwest of the Twin Cities
Metro, however 50s and 60s remain likely in southern/eastern
Minnesota and western Wisconsin. An upper-level trough will dig
into the Pacific Northwest this weekend, resulting in the
development of a surface low across the northern Great Plains.
Southerly flow will increase to the east of the developing low,
which will warm local temperatures even further to close the
weekend. Highs are forecast to climb well into the 60s, which
brings daily record highs into play. NBM 75th percentile Max T
output illustrates highs flirting with 70 in the Twin Cities!
Should a 70 degree or warmer observation be recorded at MSP, it
would be the earliest such occurrence on record by two days!
(Earliest 70 degree observation at MSP was on March 5, 2000)

The eventual eastward movement of the surface low pressure system
mentioned above will bring the return of precipitation chances for
Sunday evening into Monday. Several recent model cycles have
featured a northwest shift in the energy associated with this
system, thus QPF expectations have decreased. Wile the majority of
ensemble members feature measurable precipitation, there are a few
dry solutions within the Grand Ensemble suite (GEFS/EPS/CMC). This
continues to look like a mixed precip event, with rain changing to
snow as the event unfolds. For now, chance PoPs (30-50%) for rain
Sunday night followed by rain mixing with snow Monday seems
reasonable. The airmass will moderate behind the passage of this
storm system, with highs in the 40s for the rest of the week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1112 AM CST Thu Feb 29 2024

Gusty southerly winds will continue through the afternoon. LLWS
is expected overnight with a strengthening LLJ through early
Friday morning. Friday looks to be another breezy day with
south-southwest winds gusting 25-30kt by the end of the period.
No ceiling/visibility concerns.

KMSP...No additional concerns.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR. Wind SE 5-10 kts.
SUN...VFR. Chc MVFR/-RA late. Wind SE 10-15 kts bcmg SW 15-20G35kts.
Mon...MVFR Chc -RASN. Wind NW 10-15G20kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Strus
AVIATION...Dye


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