Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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FXUS63 KMPX 080933
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
333 AM CST Mon Mar 8 2021

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 333 AM CST Mon Mar 8 2021

It will be tough to get any nicer of an early Spring day than Monday
with the warm pattern marching on as advertised. Some patchy fog is
present over western WI early this morning but should burn off as the
day progresses. The passage of a weak, dry cold front overnight
means Monday`s temperatures are forecast slightly cooler than Sunday.
Highs are expected in the mid 50s to lower 60s across MN while west-
central WI are progged for the lower to mid 50s. A surface high will
pass through southern MN during the day, creating very light winds
and mostly clear skies.

Mid to high level clouds are expected to move in this evening from
the west as a weak mid-level trough shifts into the region.
Southeasterly winds will also develop and increase to around 10
knots by 12z Tuesday. The cloud cover and increasing winds mean that
Monday night`s lows will not drop significantly. West-central WI
will stagnate near 40 while western MN should be warmer in the mid
40s.

Temperatures reach their warmest Tuesday as southwesterly 850 mb
flow advects the thermal ridge axis into western MN by noon. The
enhanced low-level flow will allow for southerly surface winds
around 15 knots gusting into the lower 20s. Area-wide 850 mb
temperatures Tuesday afternoon are forecast to be above the 90th
percentile climatologically for early March. In fact, forecast 850
mb temperatures peak between 11-14 C over southwest MN (near record
values according to ABR and MPX`s sounding climatology). Cloud cover
will also decrease from west to east during the day as the mid-level
trough shifts east. Taking all of these factors into account, have
good confidence to go big for Tuesday`s highs. The entire CWA should
be comfortably in the 60s, with southwest MN reaching the lower 70s.
All 3 of our climate sites should easily break their daily record
highs for March 9th; MSP and STC`s records being well over 100 years
old.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 333 AM CST Mon Mar 8 2021

Now that we have our first 60-degree day of the year out of the way
in many spots, it must be time for thunder! The long term forecast
appropriately features a chance for some rumbles, along with a
reality check back to more typical temperatures for March.

On Tuesday night into Wednesday, broad 850-700mb moisture transport
and warm-air advection expand into the southern third of Minnesota
and western Wisconsin, as a surface low noses into the area.
Precipitable water values bloom to between 150 and 300 percent of
normal. Lift supplied by said advection in the southwest flow looks
likely to bring precipitation spreading into the area overnight and
Wednesday morning. There is still uncertainty regarding timing of the
associated cold frontal passage, but elevated instability is progged
in the downstream warm sector over the eastern two-thirds of the
area. If the 08.00Z ECMWF had its way, we`d have the potential for
some hail along/east of Interstate 35, with 1) MUCAPES sneaking
toward 1000 J/KG, 2) H7-H5 lapse rates of 7 C/km, and 3) bulk shear
of 50 knots. The 00Z GFS showed similar parameters to some extent,
but displaced the them well to the south/east. Therefore, any threat
for severe storms is of very low probability at this point, but a
thunder mention is certainly warranted for Wednesday afternoon from
south/east central MN into west central WI.

Meanwhile, for the far western part of the forecast area, the
highlight is the potential for a quick half inch to inch of snow on
Wednesday night in the colder/western sector of the system. It would
be a nuisance snow of little impact.

From Thursday into the weekend, surface high pressure brings cooler
temperatures and dry weather. However, temps will still be averaging
around 5 degrees above normal, so don`t pack those shorts away yet.
Meanwhile, a mid/upper trough spinning over the Four Corners region
will begin to pivot toward the Upper Midwest. There is still large
variability among models regarding the track of this feature, but
most feature precipitation coming in on Monday. Have removed the NBM-
populated 20 POPS for Sunday given the higher consensus toward a
slightly slower timing.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1059 PM CST Sun Mar 7 2021

VFR conditions overnight and Monday as high pressure builds across
the region. There is still a chance for some patchy fog to develop if
winds go calm overnight, so did continue to mention it in the TAFS
for most locations. Look for variable winds on Monday to become more
southeast during the day and increase toward Monday evening.

KMSP...
VFR conditions overnight and Monday as high pressure builds across
the region. There is still a chance for some patchy fog to develop so
did continue to mention it in the TAF. Look for variable winds on
Monday to become more southeast during the day and increase toward
Monday evening.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...VFR. Wind SE 10-20kts.
WED...MVFR with -RA possible, mixed with -SN late. Wind NE 10-20kts
bcmg NW.
THU...VFR. Wind NW 5-10kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CTG
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...JRB


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