Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN
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070 FXUS63 KMPX 121130 AFDMPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 530 AM CST Tue Nov 12 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Dry with breezy southerly winds today before rain moves in by early Wednesday morning. Western Minnesota is expected to receive the bulk of the rain. - Warmer temperatures return to end the week with little chance for precip until early next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 324 AM CST Tue Nov 12 2024 A large surface high is centered over northwestern Wisconsin early this morning, with clear skies for at least 250 miles in any direction from the Twin Cities. The closest area of shallow moisture/low clouds is working its way westward across Wisconsin. This would be the first to reach the MPX forecast area, with some stratus creeping into our western Wisconsin counties by late morning and potentially into eastern Minnesota by late afternoon. However, the best plume of moisture lies across the western Dakotas, where southerly flow on the backside of this high has already kicked into high gear. Winds are already gusting 30-40 MPH in response to a tightening pressure gradient as a trough digs down out of Canada. Closer to the Minnesota/Dakotas border, winds are beginning to come up with gusts of 20-30 MPH. These breezy southeasterly winds will continue to spread eastward through the morning, but wind speeds will not be quite as high as they will over the central Dakotas where a strong LLJ will be able to mix down to the surface this afternoon. As usual, western Minnesota will see the brunt of the gusty conditions with speeds approaching 35-40 MPH. Speeds will decrease as you head east into Wisconsin, but it will still be a breezy Tuesday. Highs will be in the upper 40s to low 50s, but the wind will make it feel more like mid 30s to low 40s, which is closer to where we should be for mid November. Attention then turns to the other component of this system- the precip. Models have been slowing down the progression of the precip out of the Dakotas several runs in a row now, putting the start time for any rain after midnight for far western Minnesota. As noted in the previous discussion, the area of highest QPF has been narrowed down to the western half of Minnesota. A sharp gradient in precip totals is expected somewhere in this swath, with totals approaching an inch possible by Wednesday night. Rainfall amounts quickly taper off east of I-35 with a couple tenths to a quarter inch of expected. Once rain comes to an end overnight Wednesday, the remainder of the week into the weekend should be dry. Temperatures will return to the 50s to near 60 for Friday and Saturday, making for a stellar end to the week by mid November weekend standards. Things look to take a turn as we start next week with models continuing to highlight a much more active pattern settling in through the end of next week. It`s still too early to speculate on what exactly this will mean in terms of our sensible weather, but I suspect precip type will be a topic of conversation in future forecast discussions. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 511 AM CST Tue Nov 12 2024 Winds will be increasing over the next few hours from west to east with gusts generally running 20-30kts through the day for all except KEAU, which should remain sub 20kts. KEAU will also likely be the only one to see a few hours of MVFR cigs this morning as an area of stratus continues to move up to the northwest. Some clouds are possible early this morning for KRNH and KMSP, but both sites should remain VFR. By this evening, high clouds increase for all as a system approaches from the Dakotas. A LLJ should stay confined to far western Minnesota tonight, so have removed the mention of LLWS for everyone except KAXN. By the end of the forecast period, rain will be knocking on the doorstep of KAXN and KRWF, with MVFR conditions to follow. KMSP...As mentioned above, VFR conditions are expected to hold through the forecast period, save for the final couple hours. Added a PROB30 for the last two hours to account for the shower chances and MVFR cigs. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ WED...MVFR/-SHRA likely. Wind S 10-20kts becoming NW 5-10kts. THU...VFR. Wind light/variable. FRI...VFR. Wind S 5-10kts. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...None. WI...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Dye AVIATION...Dye