Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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FXUS63 KMQT 062018
AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
418 PM EDT Thu May 6 2021

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 414 PM EDT THU MAY 6 2021

WV imagery and RAP analysis indicated a mid/upper level low over
James Bay with a broad trough through the Great Lakes into the
southeast CONUS. a weak shortwave trough combined with daytime
heating and low level convergence near Lake michigan has supported
some light shower or sprinkles over southeast Upper Michigan. A more
vigorous compact shrtwv located over northwest Ontario, north of
KINL, was not producing much more that sct light rain showers into
northern MN so far.

Tonight, as the upstream shrtwv approaches, expect sct showers to
increase into the west this evening. There is more uncertainty with
the pcpn trends overnight. The NAM along with several high res
models and SREF plume members suggest that a band of heavier pcpn,
exceeding 0.5 inch QPF, could develop over north central Upper
Michigan. Expect enough dynamic and evaporative cooling to change
the rain over to snow in the higher terrain where the pcpn is
heaviest. With steep mid level lapse rates to 8C/Km and strong
forcing with the shrtwv, this may not be unreasonable. However,
confidence in the development and location of any higher QPF is low
given the amount of spread, so only included QPF in the 0.10-0.25
inch range with snowfall amounts into the 1 to 2 inch range over the
north central. An SPS was issued to highlight the potential for some
hazardous driving conditions with slushy roads.

Friday, the shrtwv and associated pcpn will quickly exit central
Upper Michigan into the east during the morning and during the
afternoon. Northerly winds behind the cold front and 850 mb temps
in the -4C to -6C will result in max readings only from the lower
40s north to the mid and upper 40s south.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 410 PM EDT THU MAY 6 2021

The extended is pretty uneventful for the most part. The U.P. should
be fairly dry and cooler for this weekend and into the early next
week. Temperatures should warm up a bit by the mid week as the dry
conditions continue. There is a slight chance for some showers late
in the extended period, but other than a stray shower or two not
much more precipitation is expected.

As a low remains fixed over northern Ontario for this weekend and
early next week, expect temperatures to remain cooler (ensembles
show 850mb temperatures in the 10th percentile until Monday night).
While this low may bring a few shortwaves over the area, don`t
expect any rainfall to occur, as ensembles show PWATs in the 10th
percentile until mid next week. Therefore, drying is expected over
the area, which could cause some concerns in regards to drought,
particularly in the east where there is a moderate drought occurring
(see CPC homepage). As the temperatures warm over mid next week, the
drying trend is expected to continue, which may be worth noting in
regards to fire weather and drought concerns.
&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 139 PM EDT THU MAY 6 2021

Mid-level clouds will persist this afternoon with VFR conditions
prevailing. This evening and tonight, a weak cold front and
disturbance will move through the region from northwest to southeast
bringing a chance of rain showers into the west. Enough cooling is
expected for the precipitation to change to snow at KCMX and KSAW. A
period of IFR conditions is likely at KSAW while mainly MVFR
conditions should prevail at KCMX. A few inches of slushy snow will
also be possible at KSAW. Slowly improving conditions are expected
Fri morning.
&&

.MARINE...(For the 4 PM Lake Superior forecast issuance)
Issued at 414 PM EDT THU MAY 6 2021

North winds will increase to around 20 knots and back to the
northwest as a cold front moves through the region. The pattern will
then be quiet across Lake Superior into next week. During this time,
winds are expected to be below 20 knots.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...TAP
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...JLB


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