709
FXUS63 KMQT 171145
AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
645 AM EST Tue Feb 17 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- High temperatures remain well above normal today.

- An impactful winter storm will move into Upper Michigan this
  evening through Wednesday. Expected impacts include heavy
  snow, strong winds, and mixed precipitation. Highest snow
  amounts along the northern tier from the Keweenaw to Baraga
  and Marquette Counties. Highest ice amounts to a tenth of an
  inch most likely across the south central U.P. and along the
  Wisconsin border.

- A Winter Storm Warning is in effect for the Keweenaw, north
  central, and east tonight through Wednesday. A winter Weather
  Advisory has been issued for Ontonagon and the counties along
  the Wisconsin border.

- Another low pressure system could bring impactful winter
  weather to the U.P. again on Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 446 AM EST Tue Feb 17 2026

GOES infrared satellite imagery reveals mostly clear skies across
Upper Michigan early this morning, with surface observations and
webcams showing patchy freezing fog reducing visibilities across the
eastern half. Transient high pressure will support another day of
well above normal temperatures in the mid 30s to low 40s beneath
mostly sunny skies during the first half of the day.

Attention then quickly turns to the system moving into the region
tonight as an upper level trough and attendant broad surface low
move out of the Rockies and onto the northern Plains. A warm front
will extend eastward from this low and stall over Upper Michigan
tonight into Wednesday. Forecast details are mostly in line with
previous thinking as models have shown decent consistency in recent
runs in painting the swath of highest snowfall totals across the
northern tier of the UP and more mixed precipitation closer to the
WI border. Still, some guidance notably continues to depict a swath
of higher QPF across the southcentral U.P. lead by the Canadian and
AI Euro suites, and the forecast thus remains sensitive to subtle
shifts in the track of the system. Precipitation type remains tricky
to pin down as model soundings continue to depict a warm layer aloft
straddling the 0C isotherm through tonight and much of Wednesday
morning, yielding the potential for periods of snow, sleet and
freezing rain. Surface temperatures will also linger near and
possibly above freezing tonight near the WI border, allowing some
plain rain to mix in as well, particularly towards Menominee County.
At the same time, profiles will be susceptible to dynamic cooling as
higher precipitation rates could be enough to send the column below
freezing and result in higher snowfall totals over the southern half
of the UP. Bottom line, be ready for a messy system with all modes
of winter precipitation on the table, particularly closer to the WI
border. Finally, strong winds will also contribute to hazardous
conditions, particularly in the Keweenaw where winds could gust as
high as 50 mph out of the east tonight and Wednesday. Low snow to
liquid ratios will not be especially conducive to blowing snow, but
the combination of strong winds from a somewhat atypical direction
along with heavy, wet snow could still produce localized visibility
reductions along with some sporadic power outages. Have upgraded to
a Winter Storm Warning for the north and east and issued a Winter
Weather Advisory along the border with the morning forecast package.

Eventually, expect the stationary front over us to occlude on
Wednesday and push northwards. This will in turn change the precip
type to all snowfall, with most of the snowfall becoming relegated
to the east-wind upslopes of Marquette County and the Keweenaw,
where some moderate to occasionally heavy snowfall could be seen
from time to time. As the forcing weakens across the area Wednesday
night, expect the snowfall to lighten, with some spots transitioning
over to freezing drizzle as the moisture aloft gets lost and the
lower levels fail to reach the DGZ. However, another winter storm
could move over the area around Friday as a Colorado low lifts
through the Plains into northern Lake Michigan; there may be several
inches of wet snowfall with this second system too. Behind this,
expect more `winter-like` conditions as a shot of reinforcing cold
air drops down from Canada and potentially brings more light
snowfall over us this upcoming weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 645 AM EST Tue Feb 17 2026

VFR prevails this morning as mostly clear skies are seen this
morning across Upper Michigan. Some patchy fog can be seen via
satellite but observations suggest this is avoiding the airports.
through this afternoon, a fog/stratus layer over eastern and north-
central Lake Superior may creep towards SAW/CMX similar to the other
day. Confidence in how far inland this bank will penetrate inland is
low, thus opting to include a period of low vis/cigs at SAW/CMX
between 18 and 21z, though this could reach these sites earlier.

The main story is the incoming winter storm set to lift through the
area late tonight through Wednesday. MVFR cloud cover and
precipitation spreads into the UP by at least 00z at IWD, with p-type
initially starting off as rain, though cannot rule out periods of
fzra. Precip then fills in at SAW/CMX closer to 03-06z, again
initially starting off as rain or a rain/snow mix. Cannot rule out
ip/fzra as well. Mixed precip changes over to all snow at CMX/SAW by
06z. E to ENE winds pick up this afternoon, gusting to 30 kts at CMX
by 00z before increasing to 35-45 kt gusts in the Keweenaw into
Wednesday morning. Gusts 25-35 kts will be common at SAW/IWD.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 446 AM EST Tue Feb 17 2026

Light and variable winds over Lake Superior this morning will
quickly give way to increasing NE winds this afternoon as the
approaching system tightens the surface pressure gradient across the
lake. Expect gales over the western arm by later this afternoon to
then spread to the rest of the lake tonight into Wednesday, with
storm force gusts of 50 kt expected in the west tonight through
Wednesday evening. Have thus upgraded to a Storm Warning for the
western arm, with Gale Warnings over the remainder of the lake
through Wednesday. May have to monitor central portions of the lake
for an eventual upgrade to a Storm Warning as well as winds will
likely sporadically gust as high as 50 kt on Wednesday, but expect
these to be sparse enough in coverage to leave gale headlines in
place for now. Freezing spray concerns will likely be somewhat
mitigated by warmer air temperatures, but could certainly still see
some patches of freezing spray as strong easterly breezes persist
through the end of the week with the approach of another system on
Friday.

&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
  Winter Storm Warning from 7 PM this evening to 7 PM EST
     Wednesday for MIZ001-003>005.

  Winter Weather Advisory from 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ this evening
     to 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ Wednesday for MIZ002-009>012-084.

  Winter Storm Warning from 1 AM to 7 PM EST Wednesday for
     MIZ006-007-013-014-085.

Lake Superior...
  Gale Warning from 4 PM EST /3 PM CST/ this afternoon to 10 PM
     EST /9 PM CST/ this evening for LSZ162.

  Storm Warning from 10 PM EST /9 PM CST/ this evening to 7 PM
     EST /6 PM CST/ Wednesday for LSZ162.

  Gale Warning from 1 AM Wednesday to 1 AM EST Thursday for
     LSZ242>250-263>266.

  Gale Warning from 7 AM to 7 PM EST Wednesday for LSZ251-267.

Lake Michigan...
  Gale Warning from 1 AM to 4 PM EST Wednesday for LMZ248-250.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CB/TAP
AVIATION...BW
MARINE...CB