Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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FXUS63 KMQT 152320

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
720 PM EDT Sat Jun 15 2019

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 152 PM EDT SAT JUN 15 2019

Upper air pattern consists of a 500 mb trough over the Great Lakes
region and a baggy trough in the Rockies and troughing over the
northern plains and Canadian Rockies this morning. The trough in
the northern plains moves into the upper Great lakes by 00z Mon.
With the shortwave approaching on Sun and with light winds creating
lake breezes, this will feature an uptick in pops in the afternoon
with the lake breezes and their convergence helping to kick off
some convection. Made very few changes to the going forecast.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 401 PM EDT SAT JUN 15 2019

With zonal flow aloft and surface high pressure dominating at the
start of this forecast period, expect relatively benign weather
conditions to kick off the work week. A decaying wave approaching
from the Lake of the Woods area could trigger some showers in the
western U.P. by early Tuesday, although chances look rather low.
Another very weak shortwave on its heels could trigger additional
showers later on Tuesday into early Wednesday as the pattern remains
fairly stagnant under zonal flow. By week`s end, there are
indications of a low pressure system approaching from along the
U.S./Canadian border, but confidence remains low in the details due
to model divergence in solutions other than increasing PoP chances
as compared to earlier in the week.

Temperatures will hang out near normal for this time of year, with
60s and 70s for highs, and 40s for lows. Enjoy!

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 719 PM EDT SAT JUN 15 2019

Dry air continues to linger over Upper Michigan with mostly clear
skies. Expect mid/upper level clouds to thicken overnight and
tomorrow, but VFR conditions are expected to prevail. KIWD could see
a few showers tomorrow afternoon, elsewhere looks to remain dry as
the Lake Superior lake breeze pushes inland early in the day. KSAW
may be on the edge of the lake breeze convection, but the majority
of models keep things off to the south.

.MARINE...(For the 4 AM Lake Superior forecast issuance)
Issued at 152 PM EDT SAT JUN 15 2019

The wind will remain around or below 20 knots across the lake into
the middle of next week.

Upper Michigan...
Lake Superior...
Lake Michigan...


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