488
FXUS63 KMQT 262313
AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
713 PM EDT Fri Jul 26 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Very warm to hot conditions are expected over the weekend and
  then again by the middle of next week.

- The best chance for any organized showers and storms over the
  next 7+ days will be Monday afternoon into Tuesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 221 PM EDT Fri Jul 26 2024

Expect sunny skies over the area for the rest of today into this
evening as the high pressure over the Great Lakes continues to leave
our area to the east throughout the rest of this afternoon through
tonight. Overall, today has and will continue to be a beautiful
summer day up here in the U.P.; if you can manage it, get outside
and enjoy the beautiful weather while you can! Observations show
temperatures already in the upper 70s; we can expect the
temperatures to rise into the lower 80s across the downslopes near
Lake Superior before we cool this evening and tonight. We are also
seeing some smoke in the upper atmosphere, particularly over the
eastern half, which is creating a little bit of haze in the sky.
Thankfully, the smoke is not expected to make it down to the surface
today through tonight. Expect warmer lows and mostly clear skies
tonight, with low temperatures getting into the mid 50s in the
interior areas to around 60 to mid 60s near Lake Superior.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 322 PM EDT Fri Jul 26 2024

Ridging shifting along the Great Lakes toward the east coast results
in southwest flow and thus a hot period for the rest of the weekend.
Even though two shortwave troughs pass through the region early next
week flattening out the mid level pattern, warm summery temps look
to continue well into the extended; this is captured well by the CPC
outlooks with 60-80% chances for above normal temps through August
8th. While we do have some good chances for rain Monday afternoon
into Tuesday, the long range forecast leans on the drier side.

Starting on Saturday, mid level ridging will be situated over the
Great Lakes with a trough to the northwest over Saskatchewan and
Manitoba. Another trough will be positioned over the west coast with
a shortwave trough developing over the lower Mississippi Valley.
This pattern shifts east through the next 24 hours save for the
lower shortwave trough, which begins to lift northeast. At the sfc,
high pressure also shifts from the Great Lakes toward the east coast
with troughing over the mountain west. This yields a period of WAA
from southwest flow. Highs are expected in the mainly in the 80s,
cooler in the east where there is winds off Lake Michigan and warmer
in areas of downslope flow in the west where some low 90s are well
within reach. With afternoon destabilization SBCAPE increasing to
1000-2000 J/kg, some diurnal cu is expected in the west. Some of the
CAMs are trying to spit out some light isolated showers with this.
That said, model soundings leave much to desire with fairly dry
profiles; opted to leave PoPs out for now. Mixing in the late
afternoon and evening will bring south gusts up to 20-25 mph.

Skies clear out Saturday night and lows only fall into the 60s,
areas of downslope flow may stay above 70 all night. Light south
winds ~10-20 mph remain overnight, especially in areas of downslope
flow.

Sunday should feel somewhat like a repeat of Saturday as southerly
flow continues. Given the longer period of moisture advection with
PWATs increasing to ~1.3-1.5" by the evening, Sunday will feel
warmer than Saturday for the east as dewpoints stay higher. As the
shortwave lifts into the Great Lakes, some shower and storms could
develop in the west half, but guidance currently looks to keep this
south of our CWA until the evening hours with only cloud cover
increasing. Sunday night otherwise looks to remain mostly dry.

Now to the main precip for the extended. The northeast lifting
shortwave and an additional shortwave moving in from the west
progress over the Upper Great Lakes Monday into Tuesday, bringing a
cold front through Monday night. Some isolated showers and storms
may kick off from PVA well ahead of the shortwave on Monday, but
better chances hold off until late in the day Monday into Monday
night when the main axes passes overhead bringing the cold front.
While there is instability (500-1500 J/kg of SBCAPE), shear is
lacking around 20-25 kts, so severe weather is not expected. Ample
moisture should lead to some locally heavy downpours with some of
the storms.

From here, the mid level pattern flattens out. The better chances
for the next round of showers and storms holds off until late next
week when another shortwave trough progresses east over the region;
confidence is not high on the timing. Model guidance then spreads
into the weekend. Overall, the warm temps with highs in the upper
70s to upper 80s and lows in the upper 50s to upper 60s continue
into next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 713 PM EDT Fri Jul 26 2024

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the TAF period. There
is around a 30% chance of seeing MVFR cigs developing at IWD 09-15Z.
Also, some borderline LLWS conditions are expected at IWD/CMX 06-
12Z. Southerly winds will gust to around 20 kt at IWD/SAW during
much of the daytime hours on Saturday.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 322 PM EDT Fri Jul 26 2024

Southerly winds this afternoon increase into tonight to around 20-25
kts as high pressure shifts east toward New England. South winds
remain through the weekend, but mainly hold around or below 20 kts
during the day Saturday. With the pressure gradient tightening
Saturday night into Sunday, another period of winds up to 20-25 kts
is expected. South winds taper off to 15 kts Sunday night, veering
west behind a weak cold front/sfc trough Monday night. Light winds
below 15 kts are expected to then persist through the remainder of
the forecast period.

&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TAP
LONG TERM...Jablonski
AVIATION...Thompson
MARINE...Jablonski