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564
FXUS64 KMRX 111136
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
736 AM EDT Wed Mar 11 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
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Updated at 718 AM EDT Wed Mar 11 2026

- Warm and breezy today with near record to record high
  temperatures areawide.

- Showers and storms this evening. Some storms could be strong to
  severe, especially near the Cumberland Plateau. A conditional
  low-end tornado threat will be in place.

- Cooler and drier conditions area-wide Thursday. Then, another warming
  trend is expected through the weekend.

- Another round of showers and storms will move in by late Sunday or
  Sunday night, followed by a surge of much colder air.
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&&

.DISCUSSION...
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Issued at 152 AM EDT Wed Mar 11 2026

Mostly quiet through the rest of the night and into late morning.
However, a few isolated showers and storms are possible. Though
hazardous weather is not anticipated, if we do see any activity there is
a low chance that a storm could become strong enough to produce small
hail and/or damaging wind gusts. Confidence on storm development and
any hazards occurring are low. Latest HRRR isn`t too excited, the
18Z RRFS showed some activity across northeast TN after sunrise but
the 00Z run backed off the intensity.

Near record to record high temps are expected today ahead of an
approaching cold front along with breezy winds areawide. Valley
winds will gusts between 20 and 30 mph and the highest ridgetops
across the east TN mountains will see gusts from 30 to 40 mph. Below
are the record high temps for today`s date.

Daily Record High Maximum Temperatures:

Date    Chattanooga    Knoxville      Tri-Cities     Oak Ridge
03-11   81(2006)       81(2006)       78(2006)       80(1990)

The main story however will be on a line of showers and storms that
moves into the area this evening. Some of these storms could be
strong to severe as the approach and move into our area from out of
middle TN. The better chances for any severe weather continues to be
west of I-75, closer to the Cumberland Plateau as this is where
instability will be highest. Instability, and thus resultant
strength of storms, are expected to weaken as we get further into
the evening/overnight hours. CAMs are in decent agreement on arrival
time and generally show storms moving onto the Cumberland Plateau
sometime between 5 PM and 8 PM EDT. 00Z HRRR sounding indicate there
will be surface based instability as storms first arrive, then
transitioning to elevated instability shortly thereafter. If this
occurs, we will have a short window where a low-end tornado threat
will be in place due to the moderately to strongly sheared
environment. In addition to favorable shear, 3CAPE values of over
100 J/kg are also supportive of a tornado environment. After storms
become elevated, the main threat will shift to a damaging wind
threat. Latest SPC day 2 outlook keeps most of our area in a 2% risk
for a tornado, with no intensity notated in their new intensity
categories. This means that if a tornado were to occur it would most
likely be on the weaker side. Any severe threat will subside after
midnight, with mainly showers expected thorugh the rest of night.

The rain will be ending early Thursday, and there may be a few
snowflakes mixing in over the highest mountains before the
precipitation ends as colder and drier air pushes in behind the
front. Very little to no snow accumulation is expected. High
temperatures will be a bit below normal for a change, topping out in
the 50s in most valley locations.

Temperatures rebound nicely on Friday and into the weekend as see a
southerly return flow. Then, a deep upper trough and cold front move
into the area on Sunday/Sunday night, bringing another round of
widespread rain and some storms. This system may also bring high
winds across the mountains. The severe threat remains low at this
point but we will continue to watch. Drier and sharply colder air
will push in behind this front for Monday and Tuesday, with
temperatures below normal to end out the forecast period.
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&&

.AVIATION...
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(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 718 AM EDT Wed Mar 11 2026

Brief MVFR this morning at KTRI should return to VFR in the next
two hours. Breezy conditions on tap today, with peak gusts to 25
knots, 30 knots at KTYS. Best timing estimate still holding for a
line of leading TS this evening, followed by stratiform rain
through the end of the period. Brief periods of IFR possible
during initial TS followed by MVFR conditions during the steady
rain.
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&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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Chattanooga Airport, TN             81  42  58  37 /  30 100  10   0
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  79  40  54  34 /  30 100  20   0
Oak Ridge, TN                       79  40  55  34 /  40 100  10   0
Tri Cities Airport, TN              80  38  50  29 /  20 100  20   0
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&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...Wellington