Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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057
FXUS64 KMRX 110742
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
242 AM EST Mon Nov 11 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 154 AM EST Mon Nov 11 2024

Key Messages:

1. Rain chances will taper off this morning and clouds will clear
out this afternoon as a cold front moves through.

2. Cooler temps tonight with clear skies and northwesterly winds
behind the front.

Discussion:

Rain showers have become more widespread over the past couple of
hours. The line of heavy showers over Middle Tennessee has
weakened. The HRRR keeps a thin, weak line moving through
overnight. Lightning potential is low with only two strikes noted
over the past couple of hours over the region and upstream.
Additional rain totals will probably be around a quarter of an
inch or less.

In the upper levels, flow will become more zonal by this
afternoon. At the surface, a cold front will move through the
region this afternoon. Rain chances will taper off by mid
morning. Clouds will clear out this afternoon as a cold front
moves through. Cooler, drier air and northwesterly winds will be
over the region by this evening. Tonight will be cooler with lows
in the 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 154 AM EST Mon Nov 11 2024

Key Messages:

1. Chance of rain Wednesday night into Friday ahead of a cold front.

2. High pressure building with warmer temperatures again over the
weekend.

Discussion:

By Tuesday we`ll finally start to get a taste of fall temperatures
behind the front with highs expected to peak just a few degrees
above seasonal normals. Mid level ridging will quickly strengthen
ahead of the next system, helping to keep temperatures warm through
Wednesday even though we should see more overcast skies for the
second half of the day.

The second half of the week`s weather will be primarily affected by
a strong and fast moving low traversing through the Great Lakes
Region and dragging along a front through the Ohio and Tennessee
Valleys. There are two aspects of the front, with different forecast
confidence levels associated with them, temperatures and
precipitation. Firstly, there is high confidence that this front
will usher in a period of cooler weather behind it once it finally
moves through the southern Appalachian region late Thursday into
early Friday. High temperatures on Thursday/Friday are expected to
be a few degrees below seasonal normals. Secondly, this front will
be the next best chance to see moderate rainfall, Thursday into
Friday. High confidence there will be widespread precipitation with
this front, but lower confidence on the rainfall totals when it`s
all said and done. Right as this front is moving through, enhanced
moisture is expected to move up from the Gulf of Mexico, which could
really increase rainfall totals. However if the front moves through
quicker, or the winds don`t turn southerly fast enough the QPF
totals will be limited. With the latest forecast have slightly
increased the 48 hour QPF totals, with areas south of I-40 seeing
the highest amounts. However, still have most locations seeing less
than 1" of rainfall, so flooding is not anticipated at this time.

As we move into the weekend mid level ridging builds back in along
with high pressure near the surface. Temperatures will rebound back
above normal and once again flirt with the 70 degree mark by Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1207 AM EST Mon Nov 11 2024

Mostly MVFR conditions across the region currently. IFR conditions
are likely late tonight/early morning as rain moves in from the
west. The strongest showers, currently over Middle Tennessee,
haven`t produced any lightning within the last hour but we cannot
rule out a few embedded strikes here and there. Rain will move out
of the the region in the early morning hours with IFR conditions
improving slowly becoming VFR by late morning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             74  48  72  46 /  10   0   0   0
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  73  46  68  41 /  20   0   0   0
Oak Ridge, TN                       72  45  68  40 /  10   0   0   0
Tri Cities Airport, TN              69  41  64  32 /  20   0   0   0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...McD
AVIATION...McD