Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN
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057 FXUS64 KMRX 110742 AFDMRX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Morristown TN 242 AM EST Mon Nov 11 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 154 AM EST Mon Nov 11 2024 Key Messages: 1. Rain chances will taper off this morning and clouds will clear out this afternoon as a cold front moves through. 2. Cooler temps tonight with clear skies and northwesterly winds behind the front. Discussion: Rain showers have become more widespread over the past couple of hours. The line of heavy showers over Middle Tennessee has weakened. The HRRR keeps a thin, weak line moving through overnight. Lightning potential is low with only two strikes noted over the past couple of hours over the region and upstream. Additional rain totals will probably be around a quarter of an inch or less. In the upper levels, flow will become more zonal by this afternoon. At the surface, a cold front will move through the region this afternoon. Rain chances will taper off by mid morning. Clouds will clear out this afternoon as a cold front moves through. Cooler, drier air and northwesterly winds will be over the region by this evening. Tonight will be cooler with lows in the 40s. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through Sunday) Issued at 154 AM EST Mon Nov 11 2024 Key Messages: 1. Chance of rain Wednesday night into Friday ahead of a cold front. 2. High pressure building with warmer temperatures again over the weekend. Discussion: By Tuesday we`ll finally start to get a taste of fall temperatures behind the front with highs expected to peak just a few degrees above seasonal normals. Mid level ridging will quickly strengthen ahead of the next system, helping to keep temperatures warm through Wednesday even though we should see more overcast skies for the second half of the day. The second half of the week`s weather will be primarily affected by a strong and fast moving low traversing through the Great Lakes Region and dragging along a front through the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. There are two aspects of the front, with different forecast confidence levels associated with them, temperatures and precipitation. Firstly, there is high confidence that this front will usher in a period of cooler weather behind it once it finally moves through the southern Appalachian region late Thursday into early Friday. High temperatures on Thursday/Friday are expected to be a few degrees below seasonal normals. Secondly, this front will be the next best chance to see moderate rainfall, Thursday into Friday. High confidence there will be widespread precipitation with this front, but lower confidence on the rainfall totals when it`s all said and done. Right as this front is moving through, enhanced moisture is expected to move up from the Gulf of Mexico, which could really increase rainfall totals. However if the front moves through quicker, or the winds don`t turn southerly fast enough the QPF totals will be limited. With the latest forecast have slightly increased the 48 hour QPF totals, with areas south of I-40 seeing the highest amounts. However, still have most locations seeing less than 1" of rainfall, so flooding is not anticipated at this time. As we move into the weekend mid level ridging builds back in along with high pressure near the surface. Temperatures will rebound back above normal and once again flirt with the 70 degree mark by Monday. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1207 AM EST Mon Nov 11 2024 Mostly MVFR conditions across the region currently. IFR conditions are likely late tonight/early morning as rain moves in from the west. The strongest showers, currently over Middle Tennessee, haven`t produced any lightning within the last hour but we cannot rule out a few embedded strikes here and there. Rain will move out of the the region in the early morning hours with IFR conditions improving slowly becoming VFR by late morning. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Chattanooga Airport, TN 74 48 72 46 / 10 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 73 46 68 41 / 20 0 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 72 45 68 40 / 10 0 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 69 41 64 32 / 20 0 0 0 && .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...McD AVIATION...McD