Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Francisco Bay Area, CA

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000
FXUS66 KMTR 290548
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco Bay Area
1048 PM PDT Sat Mar 28 2020

.SYNOPSIS...Scattered light showers will continue overnight.
Widespread rain is expected from Sunday morning into early Sunday
afternoon as a cold front moves through the area. Dry conditions
will develop by Sunday night. A weak weather system may bring
light rain to the North Bay on Monday, otherwise dry high
pressure will start to build. The long range forecast calls for
dry weather for the remainder of next week, along with a gradual
warming trend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...As of 8:30 PM PDT Saturday...An upper trough is
centered offshore along 125W this evening. This weather system has
been producing scattered shower activity throughout the day, and
KMUX radar currently shows scattered light showers persisting this
evening. Rainfall amounts have thus far been light, with most
locations picking up less than a tenth of an inch. Greatest rain
totals have been in the East Bay where local amounts of about a
quarter inch have been reported.

Latest short-term model data indicate scattered light showers will
continue overnight, but with little additional precip
accumulation. The 00Z NAM and latest HRRR agree that a line of
widespread and heavier precipitation will then track across our
forecast area from late tonight through midday Sunday as the
trough axis arrives along the coast. Shower activity will then
taper off Sunday afternoon and mostly end by Sunday evening.
Additional rainfall through Sunday afternoon is forecast to range
from a tenth to a half inch.

A system forecast to move inland to our north on Monday may
produce light rain as far south as our North Bay Counties.
Otherwise, Monday is expected to be a dry day with temperatures
remaining slightly cooler than seasonal averages. For the
remainder of next week, the models agree that an upper ridge will
gradually build near the West Coast, maintaining dry weather
across our region and resulting in a slow warming trend.
Temperatures by Wednesday and Thursday are forecast to warm to
near normal, or slightly above, with highs expected to range from
the mid 60s to mid 70s. Based on latest extended forecast models,
dry and mild conditions will likely persist through next weekend.

Looking farther out, the ensemble mean from both the ECMWF and GFS
indicate wet weather will return during the week of April 6 as a
trough over the Eastern Pacific undercuts the ridge.

&&

.AVIATION...as of 10:48 PM PDT Saturday...For 06z tafs. Showers and
VFR to MVFR conditions tonight and Sunday morning. VFR returning by
early Sunday afternoon.

Vicinity of KSFO...VFR occasionally MVFR tonight, VFR Sunday afternoon
and evening. Showers tonight and Sunday tempo moderate to possibly
heavy showers Sunday morning.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to KSFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR occasionally MVFR tonight, VFR Sunday
afternoon and evening. Showers tonight and Sunday tempo moderate
to possibly heavy showers Sunday morning.

&&

.MARINE...As of 8:22 PM PDT Saturday...Generally light winds
persisting through the weekend and early next week as high
pressure moves over the southern California waters and a weak
boundary approaches from offshore of the Pacific Northwest. Mixed
swell will continue with a moderate northwest swell and a light
southwesterly swell.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .Tngt...None.

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: Dykema
AVIATION/MARINE: Canepa

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