Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 030543 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 1243 AM EST Wed Mar 3 2021 .SYNOPSIS...
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Strong high pressure to the west will weaken and slide to the south overnight into Wednesday as a warm front passes well to the north. A cold front will approach from the north Wednesday night and pass through early Thursday. The region will then be situated between strong low pressure over the Canadian Maritimes and high pressure across southern Canada Thursday into Saturday. The high pressure will build over the region early next week.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
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Forecast is on track. For this update mainly adjusted temperatures and dew points as the WSW flow is beginning to get underway. High pressure slides off the Mid Atlantic coast overnight. Winds turn W to WSW and will pick up closer to daybreak. With the winds starting to pick up overnight temperatures have bottomed out already for the most part. Temperatures should actually begin to rise for the remainder of the night as the return flow gets established. Other than some clouds further north initially, skies should be mostly clear.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/... Wed should be a mostly sunny day, and with mixing to mixing to 875mb or so and downslope W winds 10-15 mph it should be a noticeably milder day, with highs around 50 for NYC metro and most of Long Island, and in the mid/upper 40s to the north. Was tempted to go even warmer, but temps in first day of return flow often stay on the medium to low side of the guidance envelope. A dry cold fropa expected toward morning Thu, with winds shifting NW and low temps from 30-35 NYC metro to 25-30 elsewhere. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... A deep closed low aloft over the Canadian Maritimes will slowly retrograde a bit westward on Thursday. This upper low is then likely to meander over the Canadian Maritimes Friday into the weekend carving out mean troughing over the northeastern seaboard through the weekend. Upper ridging will persist across the Rockies into Central Canada late this week before gradually shifting eastward this weekend and early next week. The mean trough axis on the ensembles is too far east for any system to impact the region and the overall synoptic pattern favors dry conditions in the long term. Temperatures will generally average below normal into the weekend. Temperatures then trend towards above normal levels early next week as the mean trough shifts offshore and the upper ridge builds over the eastern states. A cold front moves further offshore Thursday morning with cold advection taking shape through the day. A breezy NW flow will also occur due to the increasing pressure gradient over the area between building high pressure to our west and the aforementioned low pressure across southeast Canada. The breezy NW flow will continue Thursday night into Friday before gradually diminishing this weekend as the high pressure slowly nears and the pressure gradient relaxes. The high should then build to our south early next week. The models continue to indicate a southern stream shortwave traversing across the Gulf Coast Friday into the weekend, then interacting with a northern stream shortwave within the mean upper trough. Due to the aforementioned positioning of the mean trough, the low pressure associated with these systems is expected to pass well south and east of the northeast coast. Have removed the slight chance PoPs from the forecast on Sunday. Temperatures on Thursday will be close to normal in the lower to middle 40s, then middle to upper 30s on Friday. Some slight moderation is possible this weekend with highs in the upper 30s to near 40 degrees. Temps should then warm back into the 40s Monday and possibly into the lower 50s by next Tuesday. Nighttime temperatures will generally be in the 20s through the weekend. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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VFR as a strong low pressure lingers over Southeastern Canada through the overnight, a warm front passes well north, and high pressure shifts to the south then weakens on Wednesday. W/SW winds 5-10kt through late tonight become W-NW 10-15 kt Wednesday morning. There may be occasional gusts to near 20 kt by late Wednesday morning. Gusty winds diminish late afternoon and into the evening. ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty... The occurrence and timing of any gusts on Wednesday may be off by an hour or two. .OUTLOOK FOR 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... .Wednesday Late Night through Sunday...VFR. NW winds G20-25 on Thu, and G25-30kt on Friday. Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: http:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
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&& .MARINE... Low water advisory continues for tonight for all but eastern CT/Long Island, as water levels around times of low tide likely bottom out at a little over 2 ft below MLLW. The gale warning on the eastern waters has been converted to an SCA. Most waters will then see SCA conditions through tonight although there may be a slight weakening overnight before winds ramp back up again early Wednesday morning through the afternoon. Winds on the Western LI Sound and NY Harbor should gradually weaken below SCA levels this evening. There may be occasional gusts up to 25 kt Wednesday morning, but for now have held off on any SCA for this time frame. Ocean seas will remain elevated through Wednesday and some 5-ft seas could linger into Wed night on the outer ocean waters E of Moriches. SCA conditions are likely on the waters from late day Thursday through Friday night due a tight pressure gradient. The pressure gradient begins to relax by Saturday morning with winds likely to fall below SCA levels on all waters for the upcoming weekend. The strongest winds are likely to occur Thursday night into Friday and ocean wind gusts may reach around 30 kt. Ocean seas will build to around 5 ft Thursday and remain there through Friday before subsiding Friday night. && .HYDROLOGY... No hydrologic impacts through the weekend. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ330- 340-345-355. Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for ANZ350- 353.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...BG/DS NEAR TERM...JE/BG SHORT TERM...BG LONG TERM...DS AVIATION...MW MARINE...BG/DS HYDROLOGY...BG/DS

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