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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KOKX 220842
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
442 AM EDT Sun May 22 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
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A cold front approaches from the eastern Great Lakes today,
passing through the area this evening. High pressure over the
Midwest will then build to the north of the area through
Tuesday and offshore Wednesday. A frontal system approaches the
area late next week.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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This short spell of high heat and humidity for the region will
come to an end this evening as a cold front passes through the
area. Before then though, highs today will be a touch cooler as
the upper ridge axis along the eastern seaboard slides farther
east and slightly cooler air works in aloft. In addition, an
onshore flow will keep areas just inland from the coast several
degrees cooler than those locations that remain under the heat
advisory. The advisory has remain unchanged and includes the
following: NE NJ, the Lower Hudson Valley, Fairfield CT, and
the remainder of interior southern CT.

Preference today for highs was to lean more toward the 50th
percentile of the NBM versus a cooler deterministic. Many
locations yesterday seemed to overachieve. Highs today will vary
from mainly the 80s along the coast, to the lower 90s across NW
portions of NYC, NE NJ, and the remainder of the interior. The
south facing beaches on LI will be lucky to get much higher than
the lower to mid 70s. Also, while it may be hot and humid,
water temperatures will be in the 50s to around 60. So please be
prepared for the danger of cold water immersion if you are
planning to head out on the waters.

As for the cold frontal passage this evening, it will be
preceded by scattered showers and thunderstorms. A few of these
thunderstorms, primarily north and west of the NYC metro, could
become strong and/or severe. Frontal forcing combined with
moderate to high instability will be the main ingredients. Not
expecting much organization due to weak wind shear. Once
daytime heating is lost and the convection works toward the
coast, quick dissipation is likely. The NSSL WRF is a bit more
aggressive of the CAMs with possible early to mid afternoon
convection, thus a slight chance has been introduced for the mid
afternoon, but much of the activity looks to be late.

Following the cold frontal passage this evening, NW winds will
occasionally gusts up to 20 mph overnight. Lows will still be
several degrees above normal Monday morning, but trending
downward significantly from the 15 to 20 degrees above normal
this morning.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
More seasonable conditions are forecast Monday into Tuesday as
high pressure over the Midwest builds to the north of the area.
This will place the area in a northerly flow Monday that veers
around to the NE Monday night into Tuesday. There could be
enough of a weakness (thermal trough) each afternoon for
possible seabreeze development.

The greatest uncertainty during this time resides with the
extent of mid level cloud cover as moisture from a frontal wave
over the SE streams NE. Model blends, in particular the NBM,
have been aggressive with the cloud cover. Decided to shave it
down a bit based on a raw model consensus. Expect at least
partly cloudy conditions at this time. This could impact the
temperature forecast a bit, but overall highs and lows will be
trending closer to normal.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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High pressure shifts offshore northeast of the area Tuesday night
into Wednesday. This will allow a return flow out of the south at
the surface, while a ridge begins to build over the western Great
Lakes region, which itself will be ahead of a developing storm
system in the middle of the country. This upper level ridging will
translate east through Wednesday night, and a surface warm front
will push through from the southwest during the day Thursday or
early Thursday night. This will allow warmer air to advect into the
forecast area for Thursday and Thursday night. A cold front will
move through on Friday and push off shore late Friday and Friday
night. The global models (GFS, ICON, GEM) appear to be in better
agreement in getting the front offshore at a faster pace. Depending
on the speed of the front, temperatures on Friday could be a bit
cooler if the front moves in sooner than forecast. Recent runs of
the ECMWF ensembles have shown as much as a 14 degree difference in
some members for the high on Friday.

Conditions are expected to be dry through Tuesday night with high
pressure in control, and should be mainly dry through Wednesday.
Started to introduce slight chance of showers Wednesday, with low
end chance POPs towards Wednesday night as there are some
indications the ridge may get compromised a bit with onshore flow
and low level moisture off the ocean. It could very well stay
completely dry through Wednesday night. The main batch of unsettled
weather appears to be more likely later Thursday and into Thursday
night. First the warm front moves through, then the cold front into
Friday. With the region getting into the warm sector with the
passage of the warm front on Thursday, and before the cold front
moves through on Friday, look for more moisture and instability
overall. Thus, there will be an increasing likelihood of showers and
the slight chance of a few thunderstorms.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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High pressure remains off the eastern seaboard through today, with a
cold front approaching from the west late this afternoon, and
crossing in the evening.

Mainly VFR conditions expected through this afternoon. The
exceptions are late this overnight into the early morning with some
low stratus and fog development outside of the NYC terminals, and
mainly eastern most terminals.

A scattered to broken line of showers/tstms likely to approach KSWF
towards the mid to late afternoon, possibly working into NYC/NJ
metro terminals early in the evening. MVFR or lower conds and strong
W/NW wind gusts (30kt+) will be main concern with any convection.
Latest thinking has showers/tstms weakening as they work closer to
eastern terminals later in the evening.

Light S/SW winds overnight, increase to 7 to 10 kt my mid morning,
and then 12-15 kt with some gusts up to 20 kt mid to late afternoon.
Winds shift to the W/NW in wake of cold frontal passage during the
evening with gusts to 20 kt.

    NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Low prob of MVFR or lower conditions in fog during 09Z-12Z time
window. Latest TAFs reflect this remaining outside of city terminals.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
.Late Sun Night...Any sub VFR conditions will be early, otherwise
mainly VFR, with sub VFR for eastern terminals lingering into early
Monday morning. Winds NW with g20kt.
.Mon...VFR.
.Tue...VFR.
.Wed...Mainly VFR. MVFR or lower possible at times. Slight chance of
showers day. Chance of showers at night.
.Thu...MVFR or lower possible at times. Chance of showers.
Slight chance of thunderstorms north and west of NYC.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
Patchy fog may develop over the eastern ocean and nearshore
waters briefly this morning, but the probability remains low.

Winds increase to 15 to 20 kt this afternoon ahead of an
approaching cold front. There could be a brief gust to 25 kt on
the ocean waters ahead of the front with seas around 4 ft, but
there is a strong inversion in place, which should limit stronger
gusts getting down to the ocean surface. Winds then shift to
the north 10-15 kt following the cold frontal passage Sunday
evening. Any convection this evening with the front looks to be
scattered and weakening.

With warm weather once again on Sunday, it is important to
remember that water temps remain rather cold, in the 50s. A
marine weather statement has been issued to highlight the
dangers of swimming and being in waters this cold.

Sub-SCA conditions are expected Tuesday night into Wednesday on
an easterly fetch. The winds veer more to the SE and eventually
to the S Wednesday night into Thursday with sub-SCA conditions
likely continuing. Seas on the ocean will likely get closer to 4
ft late Thursday into Thursday night on a S wind which will
gust to around 20 kt. Small craft conditions will become more
likely to end the week towards Friday.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts are through Thursday. A frontal system
will likely bring rain to the area late next week, but there is
too much uncertainty this far out in time in determining any
hydrological impacts, if any.

&&

.CLIMATE...
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Unseasonably warm temperatures are expected on Sunday. Here is
a list of the record high temperatures for our local climate
sites and their corresponding forecast high temperatures:

Sunday:

Central Park, NY...................96 in 1941   Forecast High: 91
JFK International Airport..........94 in 2021   Forecast High: 84
Laguardia Airport..................94 in 1992   Forecast High: 90
Islip/MacArthur Airport............92 in 1992   Forecast High: 83
Newark Liberty.....................98 in 1992   Forecast High: 93
Bridgeport, CT.....................88 in 2021   Forecast High: 84
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Heat Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for CTZ005>009.
NY...Heat Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for NYZ067>071.
NJ...Heat Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for NJZ002-004-006-
     103>108.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JE/DW
NEAR TERM...DW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...JE/JP
AVIATION...JE
MARINE...JE/DW
HYDROLOGY...JE/DW
CLIMATE...//