Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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946 FXUS61 KOKX 280241 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 1041 PM EDT Mon May 27 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A frontal system will moves through the area tonight. A series of reinforcing cold fronts will then move across the area during the middle of the week. High pressure builds in Friday into the upcoming weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM TUESDAY MORNING/... Key messages on diminishing shower/thunderstorm threat tonight: * Scattered convective coverage and storm weakening signaling a scattered minor urban/poor drainage flood threat end from west to east between 10pm and 1am. * Conditions will dry out from west to east after midnight. Shortwave approaches by midnight, with pre-frontal trough pushing through the region and shunting deep moisture and lift eastward. Improving conditions from west to east between 10pm and 2am. Unseasonably mild and muggy night with low in the lower to mid 60s, and Td`s similar. Fog development likely across outlying areas late tonight with light winds and moist low-levels. Could be locally dense. && .SHORT TERM /8 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Mean troughing continues across the region Tuesday, with initial shortwave exiting east late tonight and broad trough approaching Tue afternoon into Tue night. Atmosphere dries out significantly behind the initial shortwave and exiting cold front late tonight into Tue AM. A couple of weak cold fronts moves through the region Tuesday AM and PM. With limited moisture and W/SW flow, expecting dry conditions and only scattered aft cu. Gusty offshore flow (25 to 30 mph), deep mixing, and gradual CAA should allow for temps to rise into the lower to mid 80s for much of the area. Have leaned towards NBM ensemble 50th percentile w/ favorable synoptic setup for heating and NBM deterministic lying near the 25th percentile. Low pressure continues to track across New England Tuesday night dragging a PM weak front across the area. Unseasonably mild conditions continue Tue Night in weak offshore flow. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... An upper level trough remains over the region to start to the long term with an mid level shortwave moving across the region on Thursday. There continue to be differences with the progression of shortwave energy within the upper trough. The GFS continues to be more progressive with this feature, while the ECMWF has remained fairly consistent with a slower, stronger system. The latter of which reflects a surface low to the south of the area, For now, will continue to carry just some chance POPS during this period. Expecting at least a chance of showers areawide Wednesday night into Thursday. Confidence remains somewhat low during this time. The shortwave moves away from the region Thursday night with drier air moving into the area. Attention then turns to the upper trough closing off just offshore on Friday. There clearly has been an eastward progression of this low, which in turn leads to a mainly dry forecast with surface high pressure building into the area over the weekend. There are then timing issues with a frontal system progressing from the west which could bring showers into the region next Sunday. Right now, expecting a mainly dry weekend. A better chance of showers returns on Monday. Highs in the long term will generally remain in the 70s each day, with the warmest of the day Sunday and Monday, where a few locations may come close to 80 west of NYC. && .AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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A frontal system moves through tonight and offshore on Tue. MVFR and lower tngt across most of the area due to fog and low CIGs. Sct shwrs and tstms thru 6Z, then improvement to VFR toward 12-15Z Tue. VFR then for the rest of the TAF period. S winds become more SW-W into early Tuesday morning. Blustery on Tuesday, speeds increase toward 15G25kt much of the day, generally out of the west. Winds decrease significantly aft 00Z Wed. NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty... Best chances for tstms thru 6Z. Amendments possible for changing flight categories thru 6Z. OUTLOOK FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... Tuesday Night: VFR. Light WNW flow. Wednesday and Thursday: Late Night/AM MVFR/IFR stratus/fog potential. Otherwise VFR, with chance of aftn SHRA/TSRA. Friday and Saturday: VFR. Light NW flow. Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/
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&& .MARINE... SCA`s taken down for all but the ocean waters and even there it is questionable. It may be able to be taken down with the next update. Showers and embedded tstms will moves across the water through around 2 am. Improving cond from west to east thereafter. SCA S flow will fall below after the pre-frontal trough passage and strongest flow pushes east by around 06z. However, seas are likely to build to around 5 ft into tonight. The SCA continues for the central and eastern ocean waters into Tuesday evening. Conditions should then fall below SCA levels Tue Night. Winds and seas will generally remain below SCA criteria for the middle and end of the week. && .HYDROLOGY... Scattered convective coverage and storm weakening signaling a scattered minor urban/poor drainage flood threat ending from west to east between 11pm and 1am. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... A moderate rip current risk continues on Tuesday due to 3 to 4 ft seas continuing on the ocean, and Wednesday with 2 to 3 ft from a mix of Se and S swells. This is supported by the latest RCMOS. Water levels will approach minor flood thresholds, but likely remain just shy, with tonight`s high tide cycle along the south shore bays of Nassau County. Heaviest rain appears to occur before the time of high tide, which will limit any compound flood impacts. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Tuesday for ANZ350-353. Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ355. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BC/NV NEAR TERM...NV/DW SHORT TERM...NV LONG TERM...BC AVIATION...JMC/DR MARINE...BC/NV HYDROLOGY...BC/NV TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...