Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 220842 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 442 AM EDT Sun May 22 2022 .SYNOPSIS...
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A cold front approaches from the eastern Great Lakes today, passing through the area this evening. High pressure over the Midwest will then build to the north of the area through Tuesday and offshore Wednesday. A frontal system approaches the area late next week.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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This short spell of high heat and humidity for the region will come to an end this evening as a cold front passes through the area. Before then though, highs today will be a touch cooler as the upper ridge axis along the eastern seaboard slides farther east and slightly cooler air works in aloft. In addition, an onshore flow will keep areas just inland from the coast several degrees cooler than those locations that remain under the heat advisory. The advisory has remain unchanged and includes the following: NE NJ, the Lower Hudson Valley, Fairfield CT, and the remainder of interior southern CT. Preference today for highs was to lean more toward the 50th percentile of the NBM versus a cooler deterministic. Many locations yesterday seemed to overachieve. Highs today will vary from mainly the 80s along the coast, to the lower 90s across NW portions of NYC, NE NJ, and the remainder of the interior. The south facing beaches on LI will be lucky to get much higher than the lower to mid 70s. Also, while it may be hot and humid, water temperatures will be in the 50s to around 60. So please be prepared for the danger of cold water immersion if you are planning to head out on the waters. As for the cold frontal passage this evening, it will be preceded by scattered showers and thunderstorms. A few of these thunderstorms, primarily north and west of the NYC metro, could become strong and/or severe. Frontal forcing combined with moderate to high instability will be the main ingredients. Not expecting much organization due to weak wind shear. Once daytime heating is lost and the convection works toward the coast, quick dissipation is likely. The NSSL WRF is a bit more aggressive of the CAMs with possible early to mid afternoon convection, thus a slight chance has been introduced for the mid afternoon, but much of the activity looks to be late. Following the cold frontal passage this evening, NW winds will occasionally gusts up to 20 mph overnight. Lows will still be several degrees above normal Monday morning, but trending downward significantly from the 15 to 20 degrees above normal this morning.
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&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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More seasonable conditions are forecast Monday into Tuesday as high pressure over the Midwest builds to the north of the area. This will place the area in a northerly flow Monday that veers around to the NE Monday night into Tuesday. There could be enough of a weakness (thermal trough) each afternoon for possible seabreeze development. The greatest uncertainty during this time resides with the extent of mid level cloud cover as moisture from a frontal wave over the SE streams NE. Model blends, in particular the NBM, have been aggressive with the cloud cover. Decided to shave it down a bit based on a raw model consensus. Expect at least partly cloudy conditions at this time. This could impact the temperature forecast a bit, but overall highs and lows will be trending closer to normal.
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&& .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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High pressure shifts offshore northeast of the area Tuesday night into Wednesday. This will allow a return flow out of the south at the surface, while a ridge begins to build over the western Great Lakes region, which itself will be ahead of a developing storm system in the middle of the country. This upper level ridging will translate east through Wednesday night, and a surface warm front will push through from the southwest during the day Thursday or early Thursday night. This will allow warmer air to advect into the forecast area for Thursday and Thursday night. A cold front will move through on Friday and push off shore late Friday and Friday night. The global models (GFS, ICON, GEM) appear to be in better agreement in getting the front offshore at a faster pace. Depending on the speed of the front, temperatures on Friday could be a bit cooler if the front moves in sooner than forecast. Recent runs of the ECMWF ensembles have shown as much as a 14 degree difference in some members for the high on Friday. Conditions are expected to be dry through Tuesday night with high pressure in control, and should be mainly dry through Wednesday. Started to introduce slight chance of showers Wednesday, with low end chance POPs towards Wednesday night as there are some indications the ridge may get compromised a bit with onshore flow and low level moisture off the ocean. It could very well stay completely dry through Wednesday night. The main batch of unsettled weather appears to be more likely later Thursday and into Thursday night. First the warm front moves through, then the cold front into Friday. With the region getting into the warm sector with the passage of the warm front on Thursday, and before the cold front moves through on Friday, look for more moisture and instability overall. Thus, there will be an increasing likelihood of showers and the slight chance of a few thunderstorms.
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&& .AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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High pressure remains off the eastern seaboard through today, with a cold front approaching from the west late this afternoon, and crossing in the evening. Mainly VFR conditions expected through this afternoon. The exceptions are late this overnight into the early morning with some low stratus and fog development outside of the NYC terminals, and mainly eastern most terminals. A scattered to broken line of showers/tstms likely to approach KSWF towards the mid to late afternoon, possibly working into NYC/NJ metro terminals early in the evening. MVFR or lower conds and strong W/NW wind gusts (30kt+) will be main concern with any convection. Latest thinking has showers/tstms weakening as they work closer to eastern terminals later in the evening. Light S/SW winds overnight, increase to 7 to 10 kt my mid morning, and then 12-15 kt with some gusts up to 20 kt mid to late afternoon. Winds shift to the W/NW in wake of cold frontal passage during the evening with gusts to 20 kt. NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty... Low prob of MVFR or lower conditions in fog during 09Z-12Z time window. Latest TAFs reflect this remaining outside of city terminals. .OUTLOOK FOR 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... .Late Sun Night...Any sub VFR conditions will be early, otherwise mainly VFR, with sub VFR for eastern terminals lingering into early Monday morning. Winds NW with g20kt. .Mon...VFR. .Tue...VFR. .Wed...Mainly VFR. MVFR or lower possible at times. Slight chance of showers day. Chance of showers at night. .Thu...MVFR or lower possible at times. Chance of showers. Slight chance of thunderstorms north and west of NYC. Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
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&& .MARINE...
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Patchy fog may develop over the eastern ocean and nearshore waters briefly this morning, but the probability remains low. Winds increase to 15 to 20 kt this afternoon ahead of an approaching cold front. There could be a brief gust to 25 kt on the ocean waters ahead of the front with seas around 4 ft, but there is a strong inversion in place, which should limit stronger gusts getting down to the ocean surface. Winds then shift to the north 10-15 kt following the cold frontal passage Sunday evening. Any convection this evening with the front looks to be scattered and weakening. With warm weather once again on Sunday, it is important to remember that water temps remain rather cold, in the 50s. A marine weather statement has been issued to highlight the dangers of swimming and being in waters this cold. Sub-SCA conditions are expected Tuesday night into Wednesday on an easterly fetch. The winds veer more to the SE and eventually to the S Wednesday night into Thursday with sub-SCA conditions likely continuing. Seas on the ocean will likely get closer to 4 ft late Thursday into Thursday night on a S wind which will gust to around 20 kt. Small craft conditions will become more likely to end the week towards Friday.
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&& .HYDROLOGY... No hydrologic impacts are through Thursday. A frontal system will likely bring rain to the area late next week, but there is too much uncertainty this far out in time in determining any hydrological impacts, if any. && .CLIMATE...
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Unseasonably warm temperatures are expected on Sunday. Here is a list of the record high temperatures for our local climate sites and their corresponding forecast high temperatures: Sunday: Central Park, NY...................96 in 1941 Forecast High: 91 JFK International Airport..........94 in 2021 Forecast High: 84 Laguardia Airport..................94 in 1992 Forecast High: 90 Islip/MacArthur Airport............92 in 1992 Forecast High: 83 Newark Liberty.....................98 in 1992 Forecast High: 93 Bridgeport, CT.....................88 in 2021 Forecast High: 84
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&& .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...Heat Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for CTZ005>009. NY...Heat Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for NYZ067>071. NJ...Heat Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for NJZ002-004-006- 103>108. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JE/DW NEAR TERM...DW SHORT TERM...DW LONG TERM...JE/JP AVIATION...JE MARINE...JE/DW HYDROLOGY...JE/DW CLIMATE...//

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