Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 081802 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 202 PM EDT Thu Jun 8 2023 .SYNOPSIS... Persistent pattern remains with weak low pressure in the vicinity of Coastal New England through Friday night. For Saturday, low pressure shifts away from the waters with high pressure building in through the weekend. The high pushes offshore late Sunday into Monday. A frontal system impacts the area from the beginning into the middle of next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Conditions have continued to slowly improve today, but still seeing some areas of smoke and widespread haze. The smoke is thickest to our south now and GOES-16 satellite trends along with low level smoke fields on the HRRR continue to support this trend heading into the afternoon. The only exception is late this afternoon/early evening as some smoke and lower visibilities may linger near the coast. S sea breezes may allow the smoke to come back north a bit, but not anticipating this to be as thick or dense as what was observed on Wednesday evening. Air quality remains poor, but the real time numbers have been slowly improving from what was seen on Wednesday. Otherwise, weak low pressure remains along the New England coast The upper low will continue to slowly meander SW into tonight. There are no organized forcing mechanisms other than some weak instability aloft and some surface convergence with daytime heating. CAMs are not showing much more than some isolated to widely scattered showers developing this afternoon, mainly across the interior. Have removed mention of thunder given the weak forcing and limited instability. Any showers will diminish with loss of daytime heating in the evening. Some smoke may linger near the coasts into tonight, but should become even less inland. May need to include some haze areawide however as there still may be some lingering smoke aloft. High temperatures forecast to range from the upper 60s to lower 70s for most locations. Low temperatures tonight are forecast to range from the upper 40s to upper 50s. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... For Friday, there is forecast to be an upper level trough that will have the local area in a location of more positive vorticity advection. At the surface, low pressure and its associated trough linger within the region. Numerical weather prediction models show a stronger signal for convergence and rainfall across the local region. Instability is forecast to be higher as well, getting to a range between 500 and 1000 J/kg. This will allow for chances of showers and thunderstorms. Still expecting some haze to linger around the coastal areas but the showers should be acting with wet deposition to reduce the concentrations of residual smoke in the lower atmosphere. Forecast high temperatures Friday used a MOS consensus and are pretty similar to the high temperatures the previous day, ranging mainly from the upper 60s to lower 70s. With the upper level trough slow to pass through the region, the local area will remain in elevated positive vorticity advection near the trough axis Friday night. While thunder chances will be less, rain shower chances remain through the evening. The rain shower chances decrease more overnight Friday night into early Saturday morning. Forecast lows range from the upper 40s to upper 50s Friday night. Shower chances remain Saturday along with a slight chance of thunder mainly across the interior with the upper level trough axis shifting east of the region. Surface low pressure likewise will also be moving east of the region. Both of these features push far enough to the east of the area Saturday night to allow for dry conditions to return. Forecast highs Saturday are mainly in the upper 60s to lower 70s with some mid 70s in parts of NYC and Northeast NJ. Forecast lows Saturday night stay in the lower 50s to lower 60s. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Weak high pressure over the region Sunday will push offshore late Sunday into Monday. This will provide dry conditions through the day Sunday. A shortwave will move into the Great Lakes region Sunday, developing into another closed low that induces a surface low late Sunday night into Monday morning over the central Great Lakes region. The attendant warm and cold fronts will slowly approach the area through Monday night and then move through late Tuesday into Tuesday night. The low will become stacked and remain over the Great Lakes region Monday through Monday night, then head northeast and pass well north and west of the forecast area into Wednesday. The upper low associated with the stacked low will open into a trough that may remain over New England through the middle of next week. With the exception of Sunday into early Sunday night, generally unsettled weather will impact the area through much of the long term with a chance of showers, and thunderstorms Monday into Wednesday as the warm and cold fronts slowly approach and then move through the area. Temperatures will be near seasonal levels Saturday into the beginning of next week. && .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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Smoke remains over the entire region with general MVFR conditions. Conditions have been slowly improving to VFR in some spots this afternoon, especially for western and northern areas. Maintained MVFR visibilities through tonight as FU/HZ may caused visibilities to drop again with any sea breeze influence as thicker smoke remains south of the area. FU/HZ may linger over the area tonight with MVFR visibilities expected, gradually improving to near VFR as smoke continues to thin out toward 12Z Friday. Showers are possible late this afternoon for inland terminals, mainly SWF. Too low of a chance to include elsewhere. Better chance for SHRA and TSRA for all terminals after 18Z Friday. NW winds are slowly shifting to W early this afternoon. Sea breeze influence for coastal terminals this afternoon, allowing winds to shift to the SW/SE at around 10 kt. Winds become light and variable for most, if not all terminals this evening. Those that do not become light and variable will see NW winds of 5 to 10 kt. ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty... The haze potential forecast is RED, which implies slant range visibility less than 4SM outside of cloud. However, there is large uncertainty with how restricted the visibility becomes at the surface and aloft. Amendments likely through the TAF period for fluctuation of categories from visibility changes due to smoke. Uncertain in the timing of improvement of visibilities from smoke. Timing of the sea breeze may be +/- an hour. Sea breeze may bring reduced visibilities due to smoke. OUTLOOK FOR 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... Friday: Mainly VFR. Some improvement in FU/HZ. Chance of showers with scattered thunderstorms in the afternoon. Saturday: Mainly VFR. Chance of MVFR conditions late in shra or tsra, mainly for northern terminals. Sunday: Mainly VFR. Chance of MVFR conditions towards evening and at night in shra. Monday: Mainly VFR with a chance of MVFR or lower in the afternoon and evening with showers. SE gusts 20-25 kt. Tuesday: MVFR with SHRA mainly in the morning. Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/
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&& .MARINE...
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Visibilities have improved on the waters this morning, but some areas of smoke will persist into this evening. The smoke may be thicker over the ocean and LI Bays. Visibilities should remain above 1 nm. Winds and waves will remain below SCA levels through Monday. An increasing southerly flow ahead of a frontal system could bring a period of SCA winds on the ocean waters Monday night.
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&& .HYDROLOGY... No hydrologic impacts expected through the end of next week. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... Water levels continue to gradually fall in conjunction with astronomical tides. In addition, an easterly swell from low pressure over the Canadian Maritimes will subside. A few spots may still touch minor benchmarks across the south shore bays of southern Queens and southern Nassau. A coastal flood statement was issued for 10pm to 2am tonight. There is a moderate risk for the development of rip currents at the ocean beaches today for NYC and Nassau ocean beaches and low risk for rip currents for Suffolk ocean beaches. On Friday due to a diminishing swell and weak winds, all ocean beaches will have a low rip current risk. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JM/JP NEAR TERM...JM/DS SHORT TERM...JM LONG TERM...JP AVIATION...MW MARINE...JM/JP/DS HYDROLOGY...JM/JP TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.