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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KOKX 081802
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
202 PM EDT Thu Jun 8 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
Persistent pattern remains with weak low pressure in the vicinity
of Coastal New England through Friday night. For Saturday, low
pressure shifts away from the waters with high pressure building
in through the weekend. The high pushes offshore late Sunday into
Monday. A frontal system impacts the area from the beginning into
the middle of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Conditions have continued to slowly improve today, but still
seeing some areas of smoke and widespread haze. The smoke is
thickest to our south now and GOES-16 satellite trends along
with low level smoke fields on the HRRR continue to support this
trend heading into the afternoon. The only exception is late
this afternoon/early evening as some smoke and lower
visibilities may linger near the coast. S sea breezes may allow
the smoke to come back north a bit, but not anticipating this to
be as thick or dense as what was observed on Wednesday evening.
Air quality remains poor, but the real time numbers have been
slowly improving from what was seen on Wednesday.

Otherwise, weak low pressure remains along the New England coast
The upper low will continue to slowly meander SW into tonight.
There are no organized forcing mechanisms other than some weak
instability aloft and some surface convergence with daytime
heating. CAMs are not showing much more than some isolated to
widely scattered showers developing this afternoon, mainly
across the interior. Have removed mention of thunder given the
weak forcing and limited instability.

Any showers will diminish with loss of daytime heating in the
evening. Some smoke may linger near the coasts into tonight, but
should become even less inland. May need to include some haze
areawide however as there still may be some lingering smoke
aloft.

High temperatures forecast to range from the upper 60s to lower
70s for most locations. Low temperatures tonight are forecast
to range from the upper 40s to upper 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
For Friday, there is forecast to be an upper level trough that will
have the local area in a location of more positive vorticity
advection. At the surface, low pressure and its associated trough
linger within the region. Numerical weather prediction models show a
stronger signal for convergence and rainfall across the local
region. Instability is forecast to be higher as well, getting to a
range between 500 and 1000 J/kg. This will allow for chances of
showers and thunderstorms.

Still expecting some haze to linger around the coastal areas but the
showers should be acting with wet deposition to reduce the
concentrations of residual smoke in the lower atmosphere.

Forecast high temperatures Friday used a MOS consensus and are
pretty similar to the high temperatures the previous day, ranging
mainly from the upper 60s to lower 70s.

With the upper level trough slow to pass through the region, the
local area will remain in elevated positive vorticity advection near
the trough axis Friday night. While thunder chances will be less,
rain shower chances remain through the evening. The rain shower
chances decrease more overnight Friday night into early Saturday
morning. Forecast lows range from the upper 40s to upper 50s Friday
night.

Shower chances remain Saturday along with a slight chance of thunder
mainly across the interior with the upper level trough axis shifting
east of the region. Surface low pressure likewise will also be
moving east of the region. Both of these features push far enough to
the east of the area Saturday night to allow for dry conditions to
return. Forecast highs Saturday are mainly in the upper 60s to lower
70s with some mid 70s in parts of NYC and Northeast NJ. Forecast
lows Saturday night stay in the lower 50s to lower 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Weak high pressure over the region Sunday will push offshore late
Sunday into Monday. This will provide dry conditions through the day
Sunday. A shortwave will move into the Great Lakes region Sunday,
developing into another closed low that induces a surface low late
Sunday night into Monday morning over the central Great Lakes
region. The attendant warm and cold fronts will slowly approach the
area through Monday night and then move through late Tuesday into
Tuesday night. The low will become stacked and remain over the Great
Lakes region Monday through Monday night, then head northeast and
pass well north and west of the forecast area into Wednesday. The
upper low associated with the stacked low will open into a trough
that may remain over New England through the middle of next week.

With the exception of Sunday into early Sunday night, generally
unsettled weather will impact the area through much of the long term
with a chance of showers, and thunderstorms Monday into Wednesday as
the warm and cold fronts slowly approach and then move through the
area.

Temperatures will be near seasonal levels Saturday into the
beginning of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Smoke remains over the entire region with general MVFR
conditions. Conditions have been slowly improving to VFR in some
spots this afternoon, especially for western and northern
areas. Maintained MVFR visibilities through tonight as FU/HZ may
caused visibilities to drop again with any sea breeze influence
as thicker smoke remains south of the area. FU/HZ may linger
over the area tonight with MVFR visibilities expected, gradually
improving to near VFR as smoke continues to thin out toward 12Z
Friday.

Showers are possible late this afternoon for inland terminals,
mainly SWF. Too low of a chance to include elsewhere. Better
chance for SHRA and TSRA for all terminals after 18Z Friday.

NW winds are slowly shifting to W early this afternoon. Sea
breeze influence for coastal terminals this afternoon, allowing
winds to shift to the SW/SE at around 10 kt. Winds become light
and variable for most, if not all terminals this evening. Those
that do not become light and variable will see NW winds of 5 to
10 kt.

  ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

The haze potential forecast is RED, which implies slant range
visibility less than 4SM outside of cloud. However, there is
large uncertainty with how restricted the visibility becomes at
the surface and aloft.

Amendments likely through the TAF period for fluctuation of
categories from visibility changes due to smoke. Uncertain in the
timing of improvement of visibilities from smoke.

Timing of the sea breeze may be +/- an hour. Sea breeze may
bring reduced visibilities due to smoke.


OUTLOOK FOR 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

Friday: Mainly VFR. Some improvement in FU/HZ. Chance of
showers with scattered thunderstorms in the afternoon.

Saturday: Mainly VFR. Chance of MVFR conditions late in shra or
tsra, mainly for northern terminals.

Sunday: Mainly VFR. Chance of MVFR conditions towards evening and at
night in shra.

Monday: Mainly VFR with a chance of MVFR or lower in the afternoon
and evening with showers. SE gusts 20-25 kt.

Tuesday: MVFR with SHRA mainly in the morning.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
Visibilities have improved on the waters this morning, but some
areas of smoke will persist into this evening. The smoke may be
thicker over the ocean and LI Bays. Visibilities should remain
above 1 nm.

Winds and waves will remain below SCA levels through Monday. An
increasing southerly flow ahead of a frontal system could bring
a period of SCA winds on the ocean waters Monday night.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts expected through the end of next week.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Water levels continue to gradually fall in conjunction with
astronomical tides. In addition, an easterly swell from low
pressure over the Canadian Maritimes will subside. A few spots
may still touch minor benchmarks across the south shore bays of
southern Queens and southern Nassau. A coastal flood statement
was issued for 10pm to 2am tonight.

There is a moderate risk for the development of rip currents at
the ocean beaches today for NYC and Nassau ocean beaches and
low risk for rip currents for Suffolk ocean beaches. On Friday
due to a diminishing swell and weak winds, all ocean beaches
will have a low rip current risk.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JM/JP
NEAR TERM...JM/DS
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...MW
MARINE...JM/JP/DS
HYDROLOGY...JM/JP
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...