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000
FXUS61 KOKX 221148
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
748 AM EDT Sun Sep 22 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure retreats offshore today ahead of a slowly approaching
cold front over the Great Lakes. The front passes through the
area Monday night, followed by high pressure building in for the
middle of the week. Another cold frontal passage on Thursday
will be followed by yet another large area of high pressure for
Friday into next weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Areas fog across river valleys and the coast will dissipate
this morning before 900 AM.

Deep-layered ridging along the eastern seaboard works offshore
today with a gradually strengthening southerly flow and
increasing humidity. It will remain unseasonably warm with
another day of highs in the low to mid 80s, except in the 70s
along the immediate coast. Additionally, there will be scattered
cu development this afternoon due to the increasing low-level
moisture and daytime heating, but still mainly sunny.

There will also be a moderate rip current risk at the ocean
beaches into this evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Upper flow becomes more progressive this period as a short wave
trough moves across the Great Lakes tonight into Monday and
then into the northeast Monday night into Tuesday. Preceding
the feature will be a surface cold front and pre-frontal trough
that will bring showers and possibly a few thunderstorms to the
region late Monday afternoon and night. Instability remains
marginal at best, even with falling heights and increasing
deep-layered shear. The best chances for rain remains across
Long Island and Connecticut the first half of Monday night due
to increased availability of low-level moisture, and thus
instability. There is no severe weather threat at this time.
Rainfall amounts will generally be under a quarter inch with the
highest amounts to the east.

Highs and lows will remain warm for this time of year with
lows in the 60s tonight and highs in the low to mid 80s Monday.
Increasing southerly flow will likely limit patchy fog development
like recent nights. However, low clouds could be a factor as
higher dew point air traverses the cooler waters, mainly across
eastern Long Island and SE CT. Model soundings, in particular,
the NAM are only hinting at it. Behind the front, temperatures
will return closer to normal Tuesday and Tuesday night, but
still a few degrees above normal.

Clouds will gradually increase from the west Monday afternoon as
a pre-frontal trough approaches. Southerly gusts up to 25 mph
will be possible in the afternoon. Winds will shift to the W-NW
behind the cold front with gusts up to 20 mph on Tuesday.

There will be a high rip current risk at the ocean beaches for
Monday.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
High pressure and dry conditions returning via mid level
confluence/low-level subsidence on Wednesday. A more
significant northern stream trough will push another cold front
through on Thursday, with another large surface high building
in for Saturday as heights rise aloft across the Eastern states.

Temps will be above normal through the period, especially on
Thu ahead of the cold frontal passage, with highs mostly in the
lower/mid 80s.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
High pressure over the East Coast will move slowly out into the
Western Atlantic by the end of the TAF period.

Light and variable flow for most terminals with light SW flow for
NYC terminals becomes SW flow near 10 kts for all terminals this
afternoon. NYC terminals will be more in the 10-15 kt range for wind
speed this afternoon. Some wind gusts up to 20 kt are expected for
this afternoon.

Mainly VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. However,
for eastern terminals particularly KGON, there will be periodic
MVFR to IFR in fog/low stratus into early this morning.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
.Monday...MVFR possible in showers and thunderstorms, mainly in
the late afternoon and at night. SW gusts around 15-20 kt into
early evening.
.Tuesday-Thursday...Mainly VFR. A slight chance of showers
Thursday afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA has been issued for the ocean waters Monday into Monday
night.

A tightening pressure gradient between high pressure departing
into the western Atlantic and a cold front approaching from the
Great Lakes will result in a strengthening S/SW flow. Winds and
seas will gradually increase through tonight with SCA conditions
likely on the ocean waters on Monday. Marginal conditions will
exist across the bays and eastern sound. The SCA may need to be
extended into these areas later today.

An extended period of SCA conds is then possible for the ocean
waters even as winds diminish on Tue, especially out east, as
swells from TS Jerry begin to arrive.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Rainfall Monday night will generally be less 1/4 inch with
localized higher amounts possible, especially across SE CT and
eastern Long Island. Otherwise, no significant hydrologic
impacts expected through next week.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
NYC NOAA Weather Radio Station KWO35 (162.55 MHz) remains off
the air.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM Monday to 6 AM EDT Tuesday for
     ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DW
NEAR TERM...DW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...Goodman/DW
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...Goodman/DW
HYDROLOGY...DW
EQUIPMENT...