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000
FXUS61 KOKX 241130
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
730 AM EDT Mon Jun 24 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure builds east of the area today as a frontal system
approaches from the west. The associated warm front approaches
late tonight and moves through the region Tuesday, followed by a
cold frontal passage Tuesday night. High pressure will mainly be
in control for the remainder of the week. A cold front is then
forecast to move across the region late Friday night into Saturday.
Another high builds in Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Minor adjustments were made to forecast based on latest
observations.

Another warm day is on tap for the region as heights continue
to warm with the approach of the upper ridge axis. At the same
time, the surface high builds offshore this morning with a
developing onshore late this morning into this afternoon. There
will be a gradual increase of mid and upper level clouds from
the west, but for the most part looking at a sunny start with
partly sunny conditions by late in the day.

Highs will generally be in the lower to mid 80s, with slightly
cooler conditions along the immediate coastline. This is a few
degrees above normal.

The rip current risk at the Atlantic Ocean beaches has been
lowered from moderate to low today based on a forecast surf
height of less than 2 ft and a gradual strengthening of south
winds this afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
Upper ridge axis translates east of the area this evening with
large scale warm advection strengthening ahead of an upper
trough moving into the Great Lakes. At the surface, warm front
approaches from the Ohio Valley and nears the region toward
daybreak Tuesday. Decent warm advection coupled with marginal
instability and PW value around 2 inches will result in showers
breaking mainly after midnight, with the best chance being from
4 am to 8 am for NYC and points west, and from 8 am to noon for
points to the east. As airmass gradually destabilizes aloft, a
few thunderstorm are possible. Helicity is favorable for some
rotation, however most of the buoyancy is above this layer with
no surface based instability. Pockets of heavy rainfall will
likely result in urban and poor drainage flooding, impacting the
Tuesday morning commute. The steadiest rains pass eastern Long
Island and southeast CT during the early to mid afternoon
hours. As for the CAMS, the NAM 3km and HRRR are similar in
development time, but differences arise with areal extent and
the eastward progression. These details will likely vary from
run to run, but the markers are there for a period of widespread
showers along and ahead of the warm front.

Once in the warm sector on Tuesday, the focus of concern shifts
to potential convective development along and ahead of the
approaching cold front. Significant drying in the warm sector
and pronounced warming of the vertical temperature profile
indicates only an isolated potential during the late afternoon
and evening hours.

Partly to mostly sunny skies will develop in the afternoon for
all but far eastern sections where there could be stratus/fog in
the onshore flow. Highs will range from the lower to mid 70s
east, to the lower and mid 80s NYC and points north and west.

There is a moderate risk of rip current development at the
Atlantic Ocean beaches on Tuesday.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A cold front pushes offshore Wednesday morning, allowing showers to
taper off from west to east. High pressure over the Tennessee Valley
builds toward the region behind the cold front on Wednesday
dominating the weather through the end of the week.

A deep upper low across Ontario/Quebec is forecast to drop southward
into New England this weekend. An associated surface low and cold
front are expected to move through the area Friday night into
Saturday with an increased risk for some showers and thunderstorms.

Tuesday night through Saturday temperatures will be near to slightly
above normal with temperatures on Sunday slightly below normal for
this time of year.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
High pressure will move offshore in the afternoon. A warm front
approaches tonight.

VFR today, and continuing through the evening. MVFR or IFR in
showers expected after 8-10Z.

Light winds generally W/NW early this morning. All areas become
southerly this afternoon. Winds back to the E/SE this evening
and overnight and lighten.

     NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support...

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: http:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

KJFK TAF Comments: Timing of wind shift to the south may be off an
hour or two.

The afternoon KJFK haze potential forecast is GREEN...which implies
slant range visibility 7SM or greater outside of cloud.

KLGA TAF Comments: Timing of wind shift to the south may be off an
hour or two.

The afternoon KLGA haze potential forecast is GREEN...which implies
slant range visibility 7SM or greater outside of cloud.

KEWR TAF Comments: Timing of wind shift to the south may be off an
hour or two.

The afternoon KEWR haze potential forecast is GREEN...which implies
slant range visibility 7SM or greater outside of cloud.

KTEB TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments expected.

KHPN TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments expected.

KISP TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments expected.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
.Tuesday...Chance of showers/tstms with MVFR or lower conditions,
becoming VFR late in the day.
.Wednesday...VFR.
.Thursday...Mainly VFR with a slight chance of an afternoon
thunderstorm.
.Friday...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Southerly wind develop on the waters today ahead of an
approaching frontal system. Wind gusts on the eastern bays,
sound, and ocean waters could top at near 20 kt Tuesday morning
ahead of the warm front. The warm front will also be preceded
by showers and isolated thunderstorms, mainly during the
morning and early afternoon hours. Otherwise, winds and seas
will remain below SCA levels through the period due to a weak
pressure gradient.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A 1/2 inch of basin average rainfall is expected across the
region late tonight into Tuesday. At this time no significant
hydrologic impacts are expected with this system and through the
remainder of the period.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
NYC NOAA Weather Radio Station KWO35 (162.55 MHz) remains off
the air.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Fig/DW
NEAR TERM...DW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...Fig
AVIATION...PW
MARINE...Fig/DW
HYDROLOGY...Fig/DW
EQUIPMENT...