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171
FXUS61 KOKX 102024
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
424 PM EDT Fri Apr 10 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
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Special Weather Statement issued for elevated fire spread for
the NY forecast zones on Saturday.

Marine Dense Fog Advisory issued for the eastern waters into
late tonight.
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&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
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1. Dense fog across a portion of the forecast waters into late
tonight.

2. Mainly dry and mild with elevated fire weather concerns for
portions of the area Saturday.

3. Noticeably warmer next week.
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&&

.DISCUSSION...
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.KEY MESSAGE 1...
A stratus deck has remained over the ocean waters east of Fire
Island Island, and has begun to spread north and west with
daytime heating beginning to weaken. The HRRR shows the deck
spreading into the Long Island south shore bays, early this
evening, and then into the Long Island eastern bays and eastern
Long Island Sound an hour or two later. Nearshore cameras show
lowered visibilities, likely 1NM or less, along the eastern
south shore. Based on the cameras and HRRR forecast have posted
a Marine Dense Fog Advisory until late this evening for the Long
Island south shore bays and from Fire Island Inlet to Moriches
Inlet, and into the overnight east of Moriches Inlet, the
eastern Long Island bays and eastern Long Island Sound.
Conditions improve as the flow becomes southwest to west with
the approach and passage of a cold front.


.KEY MESSAGE 2...
An amplifying shortwave trough moving across the Great Lakes
and into the Northeast tonight will send a cold front across the
area by daybreak. Expect some scattered showers associated with
the front and little if any rainfall. Any rain likely doesn`t
move into far western portions of the Lower Hudson Valley until
around 10 pm, exiting far eastern areas by daybreak. Keep low
chances down to the coast based on latest CAMs. NBM seems a bit
underdone.

More importantly, a drier airmass with gusty NW winds will
work into the area behind the front on Saturday. Most locations
will get up to around 60, which is cooler for inland locations,
but warmer for much of the coast due to the offshore flow. The
combination of minimum RH values around 30 percent, gusty
winds, and dry fine fuels will enhance the threat of wildfire
spread. Used NBM10/25 blend for dew points and NBM90 for
wind/wind gusts due to it past performance in well-mixed NW
flow. In collaboration with state land managers, a special
weather statement was issued for the NY forecast zones.

Winds will diminish toward evening Saturday as high pressure
builds into the area Saturday night into Sunday morning, then
offshore in the afternoon. A return flow off the ocean will keep
temperatures from getting out of the 50s on Sunday.


.KEY MESSAGE 3...
A noticeable warmup is still on track for next week as
overnight lows and daytime highs will be at least 10 degrees to
as much as just over 20 degrees above normal, with the warmest
day expected Wednesday. Upper ridging will be in place with
nearly zonal flow Monday into Tuesday, with re enforcing ridging
Wednesday. 850 mb temperatures during Wednesday may peak as
high as 16C to 18C with inland temperatures potentially reaching
into the mid 80s. With this consistent trend have gone a couple
of degrees higher than the deterministic NBM for highs
Wednesday. Inland areas will be the warmest as the low level
flow remains southwest, while coastal areas will be cooler, but
still well above normal levels, with a southerly seas breeze
influenced flow. Maximum apparent temperatures will be close to
the air temperatures Tuesday through Thursday with dew points
expected to ranges in the 50s, and mixing out during Tuesday and
Wednesday afternoons. A surface trough developing Tuesday and
Wednesday afternoons, along with sea breezes, may be the focus
for showers and thunderstorms each afternoon and into the
evening with surface based instability and CAPE of a 100 to 300
J/kg. Dew points will lower Thursday behind a cold front which
is expected to push through the region late Wednesday night into
early Thursday, accompanied with showers and thunderstorms.
Next Friday is expected to the cooler behind the cold front,
however, temperatures will still be 10 to near 15 degrees above
normal. A few record high minimum temperatures may be tied or
broken at the climate sites Tuesday, Wednesday.
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&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A cold frontal passage occurs late tngt. High pres builds in
from the W on Sat.

Mainly VFR thru the TAF period. Clouds off the ocean may bring
in MVFR to ISP, but most likely stays E of the arpt so only
included SCT010 for now. Otherwise. there could be a brief
period of MVFR with any passing shwrs invof the cold front
overnight. Prob30s and VCSH maintained in the TAFS mainly N and
W of the NYC arpts.

Sea breeze flow this aftn. Strongest winds expected at JFK.
Flow weakens and becomes SW tngt ahead of the front, then NW
behind the front. NW flow gusting to around 25kt on Sat.

 NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

KJFK could have winds reach near 20 kt late in the afternoon
with gusts near 30 kt possible for a brief time.

Variability in wind direction at EWR and TEB possible into this
eve.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

Rest of Saturday: VFR. NW winds gusting around 25kt, decreasing
aft 22Z.

Sunday: VFR. SE winds 10-20kt.

Monday: Mainly VFR. SW winds gusting 20-25kt.

Tuesday: VFR. SW wind gusts near 20kt.

Wednesday: VFR. NW winds 10-20kt.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
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A Dense Fog Advisory has been issued for a portion of the
forecast waters. See KEY MESSAGE 1.

Marginal SCA conditions are forecast on the ocean waters tonight
into early Saturday afternoon. While the southerly flow this
evening could briefly gust up to 25 kt, gusts will generally
remain at or below 20 kt. Seas building to 4 to 6 ft will mainly
be due to a long period easterly swell. NW winds on Saturday
behind a cold front could gusts up to 25 kt near land, but much
of the waters will see gusts less than 20 kt. High pressure then
builds in Saturday night into Sunday morning with sub-SCA
conditions.

A strengthening southerly flow could bring marginal SCA conditions
to the ocean waters on Monday. Any on-going SCA conditions on
the ocean waters early Monday night will be slowly subsiding
through the night from west to east as southwesterly winds and
gusts diminish as high pressure builds south of the forecast
waters. Seas across the far eastern ocean waters may not fall
below 5 feet until early Tuesday morning. Winds and seas then
remain below advisory levels across the waters through Wednesday
night.
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&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory until 1 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ332-340-350.
     Dense Fog Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for ANZ345-353.
     Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT Saturday for ANZ350-353-
     355.
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&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MET/DW
AVIATION...JMC
MARINE...MET/DW