078
FXUS66 KOTX 142340
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
340 PM PST Sat Feb 14 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Light snow to impact the mountain passes Saturday evening into
  Sunday.

- Unsettled weather pattern next week. A mix of rain and wet
  snow for valleys early next week becoming colder by mid week
  into next weekend.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
A more active weather pattern returns this weekend, with
mountain snow and rain in the valleys. Falling snow levels and
colder temperatures will bring the potential for lowland snow
accumulations next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Saturday and Sunday: An upper level jet streak in southeast
Washington and mid level front in southern BC and for NW WA
associated with the positive tilt longwave trough off the
Pacific coast is bringing a band of rain and mountain snow to
eastern WA and north ID this afternoon through tomorrow morning.
In general, 0.05-0.25 of rain will fall east of US-395 below
4000 feet. The best chance (80% chance) for snow will be at
Lookout Pass. Stevens Pass is too far away from the upper level
jet forcing and is on the dry side of the mid level front to see
more than an inch of snow. By Sunday afternoon, the upper level
jet stream becomes too far removed to the southeast and
precipitation decreases in the INW, with the exception of light
snow continuing in the central ID Panhandle with upslope
forcing.

Monday: Monday becomes far more complicated as two troughs will
be the driver of the weather. The longwave trough off the coast
of CA will begin to take on a neutral tilt, bringing
increasingly meridional flow into the inner mountain west and
that will further be amplified by a shortwave trough digging
south rapidly along the BC coast. What makes this round more
interesting is the northern shortwave will bring a reinforcing
shot of colder air to the Pacific northeast. Low level
frontogenesis will increase in this scenario in the INW but the
placement of a surface low east of the Cascades will make a
major difference where the precipitation footprint ends up. The
general idea is an established surface low in southeast WA would
bring the precipitation footprint as far northwest as central
WA and a diffuse area of low pressure would focus precipitation
more in southeast WA. 30% of the ensemble cluster supports the
northwest solution and 70% favors a scenario more east/south.
Whatever the case, the air would be cold enough to support snow
into some lowland locations, particularly the northeast valleys
and north ID. Marginal surface temperatures will be the limiting
factor for accumulations.

Tuesday through Saturday: Precipitation intensity decreases into
Tuesday as the cold front finally moves into MT. A conditionally
unstable air mass will still be in place Tuesday through Friday
with 500 mb temperatures around -34 to -37C. The general idea is
unsettled conditions will continue through the rest of next week
with western troughing continuing. DB

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: Precipitation will generally increase in the next hour
or so for KGEG-KSFF-KCOE and continue at KPUW-KLWS.
Precipitation will slowly decrease around 9-16z Sunday from
north to south in eastern WA and north ID. With that comes
70-90% chance for MVFR ceilings and 30-50% chance of IFR
ceilings through the rest of the period (highest chance at
KPUW). Central WA will slowly trend towards MVFR possibly IFR
cigs Sunday morning with the passage of the weak system although
confidence is low.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS:
High confidence for MVFR conditions to continue at KPUW and
KLWS. Moderate confidence for IFR conditions at KPUW into Sunday
morning.

-----------------------

Confidence descriptors:
Low - Less than a 30 percent chance
Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance
High - Greater than a 70 percent chance

For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane
airports,please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our
webpage: https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Spokane        34  42  34  42  30  39 /  50  30  30  70  60  50
Coeur d`Alene  33  41  34  42  31  40 /  70  40  50  70  70  70
Pullman        36  42  35  43  30  40 /  90  60  50  70  70  70
Lewiston       39  47  38  50  35  47 /  80  60  40  60  70  50
Colville       29  42  30  39  30  40 /  10  10  20  70  60  60
Sandpoint      31  39  33  39  32  37 /  50  40  60  90  70  80
Kellogg        34  39  35  43  31  37 /  90  70  80  80  80  80
Moses Lake     32  45  33  41  29  43 /  30  10  10  50  30  30
Wenatchee      33  43  32  40  28  40 /  10  10  10  40  30  30
Omak           29  42  30  39  31  42 /   0   0   0  40  30  30

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...None.
ID...Winter Weather Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 10 AM PST
     Sunday for Central Panhandle Mountains.

&&

$$