000
FXUS66 KOTX 061016
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
316 AM PDT Sat Jun 6 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
The weekend will feature cooler than average temperatures and
breezy winds. Showers will be common over our mountainous terrain
while the Columbia Basin will be dry. The weather will trend
warmer and less windy on Tuesday, but the chance for showers will
persist through much of next week with the best chances over the
mountains.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Today: Areas of post frontal rain will linger this morning over
northeast Washington and the Idaho Panhandle. As of 3AM, the cold
front had pushed into western Montana and central Idaho and will
make slow eastward progress today. The main upper trough that will
keep our region cool through early next week will dig toward the
Oregon coast late in the day, and move inland overnight. With the
front well to our east and the incoming trough well off-shore
today, the majority of our populated areas including Spokane,
Pullman, Lewiston, Wenatchee, and Moses Lake can expect a mainly
dry day today. Communities in our more mountainous areas can
expect the development of scattered afternoon showers. There may
be enough instability this afternoon for a few lightning strikes
around Republic, Kettle Falls, and Northport. It will be
seasonably breezy across the Palouse, West Plains, and Upper
Columbia Basin with southwest winds of 10 to 15 mph common for
much of the day with gusts in the 20 to 25 mph range from late
morning through the afternoon. Highs in the 60s and low 70s will
be 5 to 10 degrees below average.

Sunday: An upper low will move across Oregon on Sunday leading to
the strengthening of a surface low over southern Alberta. As the
low deepens our winds will become increasingly gusty across
central and eastern Washington. By mid to late afternoon,
sustained west winds of 20 to 25 mph will be common from Wenatchee
to Moses Lake to Spokane and Pullman. Gusts as high as 35 mph will
be possible in the evening in places prone to Cascade gap winds
like Wenatchee, Vantage, and Waterville. The upper low tracking
across Oregon on Sunday will also help to cool our air aloft
leading to the development of afternoon and evening showers over
the Cascades, the Idaho Panhandle and the eastern third of
Washington. The NAM and GFS forecast enough surface based
instability for the inclusion of thunderstorms north and east of
Spokane Sunday afternoon as well as the central and southern Idaho
Panhandle. Brief downpours, small hail, and wind gusts to 45 mph
may be possible with some of the strongest cells. /GKoch

Monday: The main portion of the low pressure system that brought
persistent, cool and showery weather will be on its way out. This
will bring breezy conditions to much of the inland northwest with
20-30 mph winds stretching from the Cascade east slopes, across
the Central Basin and into extreme eastern Washington including
Spokane. Gusts will near 40 mph. The latest deterministic models
agree there will be a weak shortwave trof moving through ahead of
the building highpressure ridge which will enhance mountain
showers mainly in the Idaho Panhandle and along the Cascade crest.
Ensembles agree that mountain showers will be around as well on
Monday.

Tuesday: Patchy morning fog is in the forecast for northeast
Washington. Moisture moving over the high pressure ridge brings a
threat of light rain except for the Central Basin. Overall it
should be a warmer day south near the Washington/Oregon Border but
thicker cloud cover north with light rain will put halt the
warming trend for this day.

Wednesday: This day`s weather pattern forecast amplifies the
ridge further as low pressure off the coast dives south offshore.
Isolated showers will still be possible this day over the
mountains with an afternoon thunderstorm. If the pattern
transition holds in the models then this will be a day of
noticeable warming overall with highs in the 70s and lower 80s in
the southern Central Basin.

Thursday and Friday: Individual deterministic models diverge on
the details but ensemble forecasts are persistent with more
enhanced southerly flow ahead of the offshore low. Weather
disturbances that rotate from this low in southerly flow will
enhance chances for convective storms. This type of pattern is
something to look for in thunderstorms could be near severe or
sever variety. It`s too early to say for sure but bears watching
as a possible significant thunderstorm event either of these days.
Thursday looks to be the warmest day with mid 70s to lower 80s
possible. More enhanced convection and possibly a cold front
Friday would cool temperatures down 5 to 10 degrees at least. TC

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: A front will continue to push east and an upper trough
moves in overnight into Saturday. Showers will continue over the
eastern third of WA and ID, with limited thunderstorm chances near
PUW/LWS before the risk wanes into the overnight. Overall shower
chances will wane into the early Saturday at TAF sites. Local MVFR
conditions are expected. Saturday will bring some marginally
breezy conditions with a threat of showers developing again in the
afternoon, primarily around the mountains and ID, including
COE/LWS. Smaller chances will be found near SFF/PUW, but
confidence is limited. /Cote`



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        65  44  62  45  64  43 /  10  10  40  40  30   0
Coeur d`Alene  63  45  59  44  62  42 /  20  10  60  70  50  10
Pullman        61  43  57  43  60  41 /  20  10  30  20  30  10
Lewiston       66  49  62  49  66  46 /  20  20  50  20  30  10
Colville       66  45  66  46  68  42 /  60  30  60  50  40  10
Sandpoint      64  46  58  46  61  42 /  50  20  80  80  70  10
Kellogg        60  44  54  43  56  42 /  60  20  80  80  70  10
Moses Lake     73  48  71  47  72  45 /   0   0  10   0   0   0
Wenatchee      69  50  67  49  68  48 /  10  10  10  10   0  10
Omak           71  47  69  48  70  45 /  20  30  10  10  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.

&&

$$