489
FXUS66 KOTX 140903
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
203 AM PDT Sat Jun 14 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Mainly dry with gradual warming trend through Monday.

- Gusty winds Monday into Tuesday with cold front passage.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Lighter winds and mild temperatures are expected for the
weekend. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible along
the Canadian Border today. Warmer temperatures will occur on
Sunday and Monday before an increasing risk for elevated fire
weather conditions from gusty winds for the middle of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Tuesday: Models continue to show a large closed low
off the central and northern BC coast resulting in a prevailing
west to southwest flow through the period. Limited moisture will
result in a mainly dry forecast with a few exceptions. First is
today over the northern mountains where surface heating will help
generate some afternoon convection. Uncapped CAPE of 200-400 J/KG
will also lead to a 20% chance of thunderstorms, primarily over
the mountainous terrain near the Canadian border. Second is on
Monday when a mid level wave combines with afternoon heating to
potentially trigger isolated convection near the Canadian border,
and areas around the Blue Mountains and Camas Prairie. Right now
the NBM has low POP`s of 5-10% but pattern recognition suggests
some potential for shower and isolated thunderstorm development so
this will continue to be monitored. The decreasing PWAT`s the next
few days will help promote more sunshine, and lead to a warming
trend this weekend.

Wednesday through Friday: Ensembles are advertising a change in
the pattern for the middle to end of next week as that large low
begins to track towards the region. A leading short wave on
Wednesday has limited moisture, but will bring breezy conditions.
On Thursday and Friday with the low continuing to approach a
cooling trend occurs, along with an increase chance for rain
showers. JW

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: VFR conditions will prevail with continued decreasing
clouds.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: High confidence for
VFR conditions.

-----------------------

Confidence descriptors:
Low - Less than a 30 percent chance
Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance
High - Greater than a 70 percent chance

For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane
airports,please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our
webpage: https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Spokane        77  48  81  51  83  51 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  77  45  80  48  83  52 /   0   0  10   0   0   0
Pullman        72  46  77  49  79  46 /   0   0  10   0   0   0
Lewiston       83  54  84  55  87  56 /   0   0  10   0   0   0
Colville       77  40  81  41  82  43 /  10   0  10   0   0   0
Sandpoint      77  42  80  43  82  49 /  10   0  10   0   0   0
Kellogg        74  50  77  52  80  54 /   0   0  10   0   0  10
Moses Lake     80  49  86  48  88  50 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      81  55  85  56  85  56 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Omak           81  51  85  52  86  51 /  10   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...None.
ID...None.

&&

$$