Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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000
FXUS63 KPAH 200852
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
352 AM CDT Wed Oct 20 2021

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday night)
Issued at 345 AM CDT Wed Oct 20 2021

The main forecast focus in the short term is the potential for
showers and maybe an isolated thunderstorm tonight. Forecast
confidence is higher than average with good synoptic scale
agreement.

Today is shaping up to be the warmest day of the week as
southerly flow strengthens ahead of an approaching low pressure
system and cold front. With plenty of sunshine, temperatures
should manage to make the middle to upper 70s this afternoon with
SSW winds 10 to 15 mph and some gusts pushing 20 mph.

Low pressure will track into the Great Lakes region by Thursday,
dragging a cold front across the region late tonight and Thursday
morning. Weak forcing along the front will result in the potential
for only isolated showers with very little measurable rainfall
expected. There`s still a very small chance of an isolated
thunderstorm in our far western reaches of southeast Missouri and
southwest Illinois during the evening, but the chance is so small
elsewhere that it`s been eliminated from the forecast. With a
persistent southerly breeze and increasing cloud cover, lows
tonight should range from 55 to 60 degrees.

A few showers will remain possible across far eastern sections of
western Kentucky through mid morning Thursday. Otherwise, the
return of dry weather and clearing skies should aid temperatures
into the upper 60s and lower 70s in the wake of the cold front.
Increasing 925-850 mb moisture from the north will likely result
in an increase in cloud cover across the northern half of the
region late Thursday afternoon and evening. That should translate
southward to encompass much of the region late Thursday night,
when lows are forecast around 50.

In fact, much of the area may wake up to cloud cover Friday
morning before skies clear throughout the day. Dry weather should
carry through Friday and Friday night with weak high pressure in
control at the surface. Highs on Friday are forecast in the upper
60s to near 70, with lows Friday night in the middle to upper 40s.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 345 AM CDT Wed Oct 20 2021

Cyclonic northwest flow aloft early Saturday will relax, as a short-
wave ridge builds heading into Sunday. At the surface, a warm front
will attempt to move north through the region. Warm advection will
result in at least scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over
the weekend, beginning in southeast Missouri Saturday and spreading
over the entire region heading into Sunday.

Confidence dwindles significantly heading into next week. With upper
troughs over the Pacific northwest and in the northeast, an upper
ridge should set in over the central part of the country. However,
with a very energetic flow coming off the Pacific, the medium range
models are having a hard time locking onto the details of individual
disturbances which muddles the outlook for our region.

The most intuitive solution for our region would be for upper
ridging to dominate Monday and Tuesday, as the area becomes warm-
sectored. This would lead to healthy south/southwest winds and a
warm up possibly back to the 80s with dewpoints back in the 60s.
Much of the guidance over the past 2 days, and maybe longer, has
indicated that a large significant storm system would approach the
Mississippi Valley by the middle of next week, presumably Tuesday
night and Wednesday.

Unfortunately, the 00Z ECMWF now brings a closed upper low right
through the ridge and into our region by Monday. Other recent
models/ensemble members have shown something similar to this
recently, so it cannot be considered a complete outlier at this time.
The bottom line is that forecast confidence for Monday and beyond is
very low. We should in general remain warmer than normal, but we
will have to mention some PoP for most of the region through the
period until guidance comes into better focus. For now will try to
limit thunderstorms to the weekend portion of the forecast.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 510 PM CDT Tue Oct 19 2021

VFR tonight through Wednesday. Light south winds tonight will
become south, southwest 6 to 12 knots Wednesday. Wednesday
evening, isolated showers and thunderstorms will be possible.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RJP
LONG TERM...DRS


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