Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 281055 AAA
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Paducah KY
455 AM CST Wed Feb 28 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Wind Advisory remains in effect through 7 AM CST for gusts up
  to 40 mph possible from the south ahead of the front and
  northwest behind the front.

- A severe weather risk will persist ahead of the front this
  morning and a tornado watch remains in effect.

- Temperatures turn sharply colder after the cold front`s
  passage. Wednesday and Thursday highs will struggle into the
  40s, with Wednesday night lows in the 20s and Thursday night
  lows in the lower half of the 30s.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 455 AM CST Wed Feb 28 2024

Watch has been cleared. Some instability to work with just
behind the front as it clears our southeastern counties. Cores
look capable of some small hail, and can`t rule out a storm
going severe before departing to the southeast this morning.
Gusty northwest winds continue and will leave the wind advisory
as is for another couple hours.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 136 AM CST Wed Feb 28 2024

Currently sfc cold front is working through from about Marble
Hill, MO northeastward to Marion and approaching Mt. Carmel,
Indiana. Convective inhibition has held up well in most places
today and even along the front thunderstorms have struggled to
stay rooted in. Over the last hour clusters of cells have formed
over northwestern Kentucky. These cells may not be entirely
surface based but will be surface based enough they will
represent a potential severe threat for the next couple of
hours. MLCAPE is about 1000 J/kg with 0-1km SRH about 500 m2/s2
with very strong deep layer shear. All modes of severe will be
possible but no storm has really taken off to fully take
advantage of the available airmass tonight. Gusts of 40-45kts
are occurring behind the front and extended the wind advisory
until 7 am for this as temperatures turn sharply colder today.

Airmass will moderate a bit Thursday into Friday as modest
return flow develops. A small shortwave trough moves through
Thursday night giving us a chance of rain. Could see some
thunder pop out of that given the lapse rates that shortwave
would produce but left it out of the forecast for now.

Warm southerly flow persist through the weekend with
temperatures climbing back into the 60s Saturday and 70s Monday.
GFS/ECMWF then offer somewhat disparate solutions on a another
strong cold front Monday with the GFS sweeping it through
without much resistance but the ECMWF stalling it out/washing
it out over the area. Tend to prefer the GFS forecast for now
but both solutions are probable. Lower end POPs are in place for
this activity mainly on Monday but lingering into the middle of
the week given model uncertainty. Temperatures stay relatively
warm overall.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 455 AM CST Wed Feb 28 2024

Front is moving through the southeastern most counties with
convection along and just behind it. That has cleared the TAF
sites this morning. Gusty northwest winds with light rain and a
few snowflakes with MVFR ceilings can be expected through the
morning. With winds easing up through the day and ceilings
improving to VFR. VFR conditions with light winds are forecast
for the overnight period.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...Wind Advisory until 7 AM CST this morning for ILZ075>078-
     080>094.
MO...Wind Advisory until 7 AM CST this morning for MOZ076-086-087-
     100-107>112-114.
IN...Wind Advisory until 7 AM CST /7 AM EST/ this morning for
     INZ081-082-085>088.
KY...Wind Advisory until 7 AM CST this morning for KYZ001>022.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JGG
DISCUSSION...JGG
AVIATION...JGG


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