318
FXUS63 KPAH 262255
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
555 PM CDT Fri Jul 26 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A daily chance of showers and storms for all or a portion of
  the region will continue through at least next Friday.
  However, the Evansville Tri State may stay dry through
  Saturday.

- Below normal high temperatures in the middle and upper 80s
  will continue through Sunday and possibly into Monday.

- Temperatures and humidity levels will trend upward through the
  work week, with head index readings 100-105 possible Tuesday
  through next Friday. The pattern may also be more conducive
  for heavy rainfall and flash flooding.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 203 PM CDT Fri Jul 26 2024

High and mid level clouds marching in from the southwest mark a
robust increase in column moisture this afternoon. PWAT values
are rising from around 1.5 to nearly 2.0 inches from north to
south across the CWA. We are approaching/exceeding convective
temperature in the southern half of the area with about 2000
J/kg of MLCAPE amid mid 70s dewpoints. Shear is quite weak
however and updrafts so far have struggled to maintain. A cell
or two may tap fully into the available instability and present
a brief downburst threat with sfc-700mb theta-e around 20C.
Storm motion is slow and cells that persist will also produce a
heavy rain/localized flooding risk. The upper level pattern is
neutral and with no real forcing the activity should mostly be
diurnally driven and start to diminish by late this afternoon or
just after sunset.

Tomorrow a trough/upper closed low begins to work closer to the
area. Lower level flow increases a bit and column moisture
richens and deepens further. GFS/NAM PWAT values increase to
around 2.1 to 2.2 inches. Models are a little stingy with precip
but with the depth of moisture and some lift really expect we
will have fairly widespread coverage. Column shear gets a little
better, not great, tomorrow and may carry a little bit of a
severe weather risk with it as well although shear may still be
too low to allow for much storm organization. Will need to watch
for heavy rainfall/flooding but can`t pinpoint an area to
highlight really for a flash flood watch. The higher convective
potential will remain through Sunday as the upper trough swings
over the region. Think the best chance for precip will be Sat PM
into Sun AM and massaged the NBM pops a little to try to reflect
this. Very heavy rain and localized flooding will remain a
concern.

Once this system clears out we get into more of a northwest flow
regime aloft. 500mb heights increase to 592-596dm with sfc
dewpoints in the mid to perhaps upper 70s. The signal still
looks like a lot of heat and humidity with MCS/QLCS mixed in in
the afternoon and evening. Suspect we will need heat advisories
or perhaps heat warnings during this period with a risk of
storms/flooding but it will be difficult to pin down specifics
until things get a little closer.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 553 PM CDT Fri Jul 26 2024

The main concerns in this TAF issuance will be the potential for
MVFR fog development overnight into Saturday morning and then
the potential for isolated afternoon showers and storms. Overall
confidence and coverage for storms is low enough to leave out
of this issuance, but may be needed with later updates.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JGG
AVIATION...KC