000
FXUS61 KPBZ 021714
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
114 PM EDT Sat Jul 2 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
Drier air and seasonable temperatures return tonight behind a
departing cold front. High pressure will then keep quiet
weather in our region through the Fourth of July.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Frontal boundary is making slow progress across the CWA, with
drier air starting to sneak in from the northwest. Earlier
showers have dissipated with the loss of shortwave support. With
500-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE ahead of the front, expect scattered
activity to refire ahead of it as the afternoon progresses. CAPE
and shear do not intersect well, and so do not foresee a large
severe threat with any storms. Still, just enough dry air
aloft/DCAPE may exist in the southeast CWA corner for the threat
of an isolated downburst/downpour.

Precipitation coverage will wane this evening as heating is lost
and as the front continues to make progress. A weak shortwave
aloft may provide some overnight mid and high cloud cover, but
with drier air arriving, little threat of additional
precipitation is seen. Went just a touch below NBM low
temperatures overall, but these will be tricky, as they will
depend heavily on how quickly clouds clear.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Crossing surface high pressure will provide dry weather and
generally comfortable humidity levels through the daylight hours of
the Fourth. Seasonable temperatures will be in place Sunday as
shallow troughing departs. Temperatures on Monday will begin to warm
as ridging strengthens across the Lower Mississippi Valley, with
500mb heights climbing over our region in response. Low-level
southwest flow sets up during the afternoon, which will aid in
starting a slow increase in dewpoints. However, those values will
remain around or below 60 degrees in most cases. Also, capping aloft
will suppress afternoon convection chances.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Dry weather should hold on long enough into Monday evening to allow
area fireworks displays to go off as planned. However, vorticity
advection on the periphery of the Deep South ridge, plus an
approaching frontal boundary, will bring at least scattered showers
and thunderstorms back to the area during the night. It appears that
the boundary will struggle to clear the region as it bumps into the
southern ridge, keeping good rain chances through at least the
Tuesday forecast.

Thereafter, the ridge to our south expands/retrogrades to the west
through most of next week.  This will keep our region in a northwest
flow regime aloft, and thus will also keep an active weather pattern
going with rain chances each day.  This pattern has led to severe
weather events in the past, and this possibility will need to be
monitored, pending factors like shortwave timing and available
instability.  Temperatures will not stray too far from climatology
during this period, but humidity levels will add to discomfort at
times.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
General VFR conditions will continue through the TAF period. The
cold front will continue to make slow progress across the region
this afternoon. Isolated to scattered showers and storms will
fire ahead of it in a more moisture-rich air mass. MGW has the
best chance of being impacted, and elected a VCTS mention. A
brief MVFR/IFR restriction period is possible here if a storm
does hit.

The front will exit the region tonight, and a drier air mass
will arrive. A shortwave aloft will provide some mid and upper
level clouds overnight. These, plus lowering dewpoints, should
prevent most fog formation. Most clouds will depart by mid-
morning Sunday, and high pressure will provide a VFR day with
light north/northwest wind.

.Outlook...
Mainly VFR conditions will then be expected into early next
week. The next front on Tuesday will provide the next widespread
restriction chance.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$