000
FXUS61 KPBZ 070036
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
836 PM EDT Thu Aug 6 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
A few showers or thunderstorms will be possible in and near the
ridges both today and Friday afternoon, with mainly dry weather
elsewhere. Mostly dry, warm weather will then prevail for the
weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
Scattered showers should gradually diminish tonight across the
higher terrain of WV and MD as shortwave support decreases and
instability wanes. Some patchy fog is possible in this same area
where rain occurred earlier. Otherwise, dry weather and patchy mid
level clouds are expected across the region tonight. Low
temperatures are forecast to be near seasonable levels.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Friday`s weather will be quite similar to Thursday. Another
shortwave trough will rotate around the established broad upper-
level troughing across the Great Lakes while low-level/sfc troughing
remains in place along the Allegheny Front. Showers/storms will once
again initiate near or on the ridges in the afternoon, when
shortwave lift timing overlaps with peak diurnal instability.
Showers/storms will progress eastward out of the area a bit faster
on Friday as upper-level steering becomes more orthogonal to the
boundary and the upper-level trough lifts off to the northeast.

Warmer, drier conditions are anticipated for Saturday. Upper-level
shortwave ridging in wake of the departing trough will suppress
convective activity on Saturday.

As far temperature, Saturday will mark the start of a warming trend
as mostly clear skies and increasing heights/thickness leads to
temps in the mid 80s for much of the area.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Very typical warm, humid summer weather is anticipated Sunday
through much of the next work week. Aloft, model consensus shows
that the Upper Ohio Valley region will reside on the southern
periphery of the northern activity, and on the northern periphery of
southeast high pressure.

Sunday and Monday should remain mostly dry and only low-amplitude
waves are anticipated to translate through the quasi-zonal mid- and
upper-level flow. Both the ECM and GFS prog a deeper trough and
attendant cold front passage during the middle of next week.
However, long-range ensemble guidance paints a warm, humid picture
through, at least, the middle of the month.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR is expected for most ports through the TAF period. A crossing
shortwave trough should result in CU cigs on Thu. Isold-sct shra are
also possible, but coverage should remain limited enough to preclude
a TAF mention. MVFR to IFR fog is expected late tonight/early Thu
morning at FKL, MGW and DUJ.

.Outlook...
Restriction potential returns with a Mon/Tue cold front.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
OH...None.
PA...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$