Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pendleton, OR
Issued by NWS Pendleton, OR
715 FXUS66 KPDT 250300 AFDPDT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pendleton OR 800 PM PDT Tue Jun 24 2025 .EVENING UPDATE...A cluster of showers and thunderstorms is currently rolling through central Oregon this evening, having already dropped a wetting rain over portions of Deschutes County. Based on radar returns, however, these showers appear to be losing steam as they start running into the much drier air mass currently prevailing over eastern Oregon. Clouds are also starting to nudge their way into the forecast area ahead of tomorrow`s system, which should work to cut off any remaining instability fueling these showers. Only change made to the forecast was to update PoPs for central Oregon, as the forecast had previously called for dry conditions. Could see a similar shower/storm threat, with models picking up little to no activity, tomorrow for the eastern mountains as well. Evans/74 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 424 PM PDT Tue Jun 24 2025/ SHORT TERM...Today through Thursday...Today is the warmest day of this term with temperatures in the 80s and 90s across central OR extending to the Columbia Basin, but will slightly decrease by few degrees tomorrow through Thursday into the 70s and 80s. RH values continues dropping to the teens tonight across the aforementioned areas before recovering tomorrow into Thursday as well up to the 20s or higher. Heat Risk will remain moderate (level 2 of 4) over the Columbia Basin today due to the low RHs and warming temps, though with no concerns for critical conditions at this time. Otherwise, this forecast period will be warm and dry. No precip is expected today, but may develop over the WA Cascades (30-60% probability) and Wallowas tomorrow with less than 0.10 inches (30-40% prob). And with the southwest flow across the eastern mountains, isolated thunderstorms could form mainly over the Wallowas Wednesday evening, given the SPC Outlook having this area in marginal risk. Although CAPE values may increase up to 800 J/Kg, instability remains weak with lack of moisture support (<20% confidence). With the strong pressure gradients, breezy conditions (15-25 mph) are expected for this term across the Cascade Gaps and the Columbia Basin. The raw ensembles favor a 30-60% prob for gusts reaching to 30-35 mph over the Columbia River Gorge Wednesday afternoon into evening. Thursday should be relatively breezy from the westerly flow, though might become slightly gusty up to 30 mph Thursday night (30-40% confidence). Feaster/97 LONG TERM...Friday through Tuesday...Warm, dry conditions will prevail for the duration of this period. Temperatures will continue trending upward into next week with RHs gradually decreasing under 30s Friday and then into the teens over the weekend onwards for most locations. Sunday through Tuesday will be our warmest and driest days of next week with temperatures reaching up to the 90s and higher. Monday and Tuesday, however, could reach into the low 100s across the Columbia Basin (>40% confidence). Heat Risk will be moderate across most of the forecast area Sunday into Tuesday, but with portions of the Columbia Basin remaining in pockets of Major Heat Risk Monday and Tuesday. The Gorge may be slightly gusty Friday afternoon at 30 mph. Otherwise, winds will be light with occasional breezes Friday night onwards. Feaster/97 AVIATION...00Z TAFs...VFR conditions to prevail through the period. Winds 12-15kts with gusts to around 25kts will impacts sites DLS/RDM/BDN with light winds elsewhere this afternoon, with light winds returning to breezy sites late this evening. Tomorrow, winds 12-20kts with gusts 20-30kts will develop at sites DLS/PDT/ALW/PSC after 16Z and persist into the late afternoon and evening. Lawhorn/82 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... PDT 61 87 57 81 / 0 0 0 0 ALW 66 86 60 81 / 0 0 0 0 PSC 63 90 58 84 / 0 0 0 0 YKM 59 87 55 81 / 10 0 0 0 HRI 63 88 58 83 / 10 0 0 0 ELN 58 81 55 76 / 10 0 0 0 RDM 48 82 45 78 / 20 0 0 0 LGD 56 83 53 79 / 0 10 10 0 GCD 53 85 52 82 / 20 10 0 0 DLS 61 80 58 77 / 0 0 0 0 && .PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...None. WA...None. && $$ UPDATE...74 SHORT TERM...97 LONG TERM....97 AVIATION...82