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631
FXUS66 KPDT 160905
AFDPDT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pendleton OR
205 AM PDT Fri Apr 16 2021

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...a ridge of high pressure over
the region will intensify and persist into Sunday before weakening.
This will lead to warming temperatures and mostly clear skies
through Sunday with Sunday being the hottest day. Some breezy north
to northeast winds will continue today but then become light on
Saturday. The weakening of the ridge will allow a system to drop
south from Canada into the northern Plains and Rockies Sunday night.
This system will clip eastern Washington and Oregon increasing
northerly winds again and ushering in some cooler air for the first
of the week. Precipitation looks unlikely at this time but if any
were to occur it would be limited to the northern Blue and Wallowa
county region.

.LONG TERM...Monday through Thursday...The ridge that had a
stranglehold over the PacNW weakens on Monday as a backdoor cold
front sliding south along the eastern periphery of the high. Any
lingering showers over the eastern mountains should quickly end as
the front shifts south and east. Some breezy northerly winds
expected behind the front, along with cooler temps. Expect highs 10
to 15 degrees cooler in the upper 50s to around 70. For
Tuesday/Wednesday, a couple shortwave breakoff from large upper low
spinning off the Aleutians and are progged to push into the western
US. Differences abound between models on timing, location and
strength of these systems. General trend is for the shortwaves to
push off to our south and west into NorCal and northern NV, possibly
developing into closed lows. Some guidance showing low end chances
for showers and possible storm or two across the Cascades, with
better potential Tue afternoon. Models and ensemble guidance differ
quite a bit for Thursday, with some members building back a ridge
over the PacNW and others trying to bring down another back door
trough/front and possible showers. General consensus is for ridging
and dry conditions, and this is backed up by the NBM. Warming trend
expected Tuesday onward, with highs in the mid 60s to 70s.
Increasing winds through the gorge and Cascade gaps Wed and esp Thur
as thermal and pressure gradients tighten west to east across the
Cascades.

&&

.AVIATION...12Z TAFs...VFR conditions with clear skies. Light winds
this morning becoming 12-20kts with some higher gusts this afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  71  37  74  42 /   0   0   0   0
ALW  74  41  76  47 /   0   0   0   0
PSC  77  42  79  45 /   0   0   0   0
YKM  75  42  78  46 /   0   0   0   0
HRI  75  40  78  41 /   0   0   0   0
ELN  72  42  74  44 /   0   0   0   0
RDM  70  30  75  35 /   0   0   0   0
LGD  65  36  68  38 /   0   0   0   0
GCD  67  37  70  40 /   0   0   0   0
DLS  77  46  80  48 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...91
LONG TERM....84
AVIATION...84