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322
FXUS66 KPDT 221117 AAA
AFDPDT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pendleton OR
420 AM PDT Fri Mar 22 2019

Updated Aviation Discussion

.SHORT TERM...
Friday through Sunday...Today looks to be quiet and dry, then a
weak system approaches from the west for tonight. Most of the
guidance brings some precipitation to central Oregon, though the
amounts are fairly light, then the system fizzles out as it moves
eastward. Another weak low then approaches the southwestern Oregon
coast on Saturday and increases moisture from the south during the
day on Saturday. There is a better chance of precipitation, mainly
valley rain and mountain snow. However, once again, amounts aren`t
all that high, but will have to monitor to see if there will be a
need for any winter headlines especially over the eastern areas.
This system begins to clear out saturday night from west to east,
with a dry weather returning to all but the extreme northeastern
sections on Sunday.


.LONG TERM...
Sunday night through Thursday...Deterministic models are in
general agreement with the broad upper level trough off the
eastern Pacific and the Pacific NW, but there are subtle
differences with the individuals waves embedded in the trough.
Models are consistent with the dry forecast Sunday night followed
by a strong negative tilt trough Monday and Monday night.
Scattered to numerous showers are forecast for Monday with snow
above 4000 feet. At this time 1-4 inches are expected above 4000
feet. The shortwave and surface cold front will lift north and out
of the region early Tuesday morning. A moist southwest flow aloft
ahead of the trough will bring a chance of rain and snow (snow
levels around 3500-4000 feet) Tuesday and Tuesday night, mainly
across eastern Oregon. Another shortwave trough with a slight
negative tilt is progged to travel across Oregon on Wednesday with
rain and snow likely over the Oregon zones and a chance of rain
and snow over eastern Washington. Snow levels will remain around
3500-4000 feet, and at least several inches of snow are possible
over the mountains. Thursday is looking cool and unsettled as the
forecast area remains under the influence of the upper level
trough and cyclonic flow aloft. Afternoon temperatures will
generally range from the upper 40s to upper 50s during the
extended, and overnight lows in the mid 20s to upper 30s. These
temperatures are near to below average from this time of the
season. Wister

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFs...A decaying front will bring light rain to our western TAF
sites late this afternoon and evening--RDM, BDN, and DLS--and these
airports may briefly lower from VFR to MVFR.  There is a slight
chance of light rain to the other TAF sites this evening but
conditions should remain VFR.  Variable clouds AOA 4K feet AGL can
be expected for the next 24 hours, and winds will be less than 15
knots from the southwest (NW at DLS).  Wister

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  61  42  53  38 /  10  30  20  30
ALW  62  42  54  40 /   0  20  20  30
PSC  61  43  57  39 /   0  10  10  20
YKM  61  38  55  32 /  10  20  10  10
HRI  64  43  57  38 /   0  20  10  20
ELN  58  35  52  30 /  10  30  10  10
RDM  52  33  47  29 /  30  30  30  30
LGD  57  37  47  33 /  10  50  40  50
GCD  57  35  44  32 /  10  70  50  40
DLS  58  39  54  35 /  20  30  20  10

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$

77/85/85