Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pendleton, OR
Issued by NWS Pendleton, OR
874 FXUS66 KPDT 122324 AFDPDT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pendleton OR 424 PM PDT Sat Jul 12 2025 .UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION... .AVIATION...00Z TAFs...VFR conditions throughout this TAF period. KDLS/KRDM/KYKM will have sustained winds of 12-20kts with gusts at 20-25kts through this evening. Between 05Z and 08Z, winds should then decrease to 12kts or less at those sites. However, gusts may return tomorrow afternoon at 15-25kts for KDLS/KPDT/KRDM/KBDN. Otherwise, KALW/KPSC will have light, diurnal winds. Feaster/97 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 147 PM PDT Sat Jul 12 2025/ .SHORT TERM...Today through Monday...High pressure will continue to build over the region and will persist through much of next week. With the uptick in temperatures and the lack of overnight low temperature recoveries, a Heat Advisory has been issued for today through Monday for the Basin, Gorge, Yakima/Kittitas Valleys, and the foothills of the northern Blues. HeatRisk shows a marginal risk for meeting the advisory threshold both Saturday and Monday, but with highs wavering around 100 degrees and little reprieve in overnight temperatures. Thermally driven winds through the Cascade Gaps will occur Sunday causing winds to increase. Models show the temperature difference across the Cascades will lead to 20-25 mph sustained winds through the Gorge and Kittitas Valley with 50-70% of the ensembles in agreement and 50-70% of the ensembles in agreement the Kittitas Valley could see gusts as high as 40 mph while the Gorge will see 60-80% probabilities of 25-30 mph gusts. Even with the uptick in temperatures over the weekend and winds through the Cascade Gaps, fire weather concerns remain elevated, or at moderately high risk due to the hot and dry conditions. .LONG TERM...Tuesday through Saturday...Models are showing quite a bit of disagreement with the incoming next system. Mainly beginning Wednesday and after. There is however, agreement that there will be a pattern shift with many of the models showing either a shortwave trough sweeping across the northern portion of the region or benign westerly flow. The primary tell will be dependent on the depth of the track the trough takes. As of now it shows we will remian dry and the track of the system will be a bit to the northeast. However, confidence in the forecast after Wednesday is low. If the trough digs farther south, models and ensembles are in agreement that this will bring with it a change in prevailing wind direction with prevailing winds shifting to the north then to the east which will become a major concern for boots on the ground at wildfire incidents. This track will also allow for the insurgence of moisture from the south that will lead to the likelihood of thunderstorms moving across central OR and the eastern mountains. Bennese/90 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... PDT 66 100 67 96 / 0 0 0 0 ALW 70 100 71 96 / 0 0 0 0 PSC 66 103 69 99 / 0 0 0 0 YKM 69 101 68 97 / 0 0 0 0 HRI 66 103 69 99 / 0 0 0 0 ELN 69 97 68 91 / 0 0 0 0 RDM 55 97 56 95 / 0 0 0 0 LGD 61 95 63 93 / 0 0 0 0 GCD 60 97 61 96 / 0 0 0 0 DLS 70 102 71 91 / 0 0 0 0 && .PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT Monday for ORZ041-044-507. WA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT Monday for WAZ024-026>029. && $$ SHORT TERM...90 LONG TERM....90 AVIATION...97