Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

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000 FXUS61 KPHI 260239 AFDPHI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 939 PM EST Sat Jan 25 2020 .SYNOPSIS... Intensifying low pressure will move northeast of the area this evening into Sunday and a cold front will move through our area this evening. A weak trough south of the main low will pass near the region on Monday. High pressure will then slowly build across the eastern half of the US through the remainder of the workweek before another area of low pressure approaches next weekend. && .NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/... The surface low which passed over the area earlier, is now over southern New England and will continue to move northeastward through the overnight period. Behind the low colder and drier westerly flow has overspread the area and this is expected to persist through the night. Most of the area will see limited cloud cover, although the northwestern half of the area will likely see some mid lvl clouds rotate in later in the night as the mid-lvl low approaches from the west. Lows are expected to generally be in the low to mid 30s. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/... The mid level low is forecast to move across the Adirondacks, northern New England and southern Quebec on Sunday. The feature is expected to pull a couple weak short wave troughs over our region on Sunday. As a result, we should see an increase in stratocumulus during the daylight hours. Highs should favor the 40s with a west wind around 10 mph. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... Summary: It will be a relatively uneventful end of January as a generally dry and seasonable northwest flow aloft prevails for the bulk of the work-week with only a few low-amplitude and moisture-starved disturbances passing through. A stronger and more organized storm system may approach the area next weekend, but details are lacking at this point. Details: Monday/Tuesday: The secondary low which passed through the area today will ultimately strengthen and merge with the primary Great Lakes Low by Sunday night (over New Brunswick). A back- side mid-lvl shortwave will slide through the area on Monday with a weak sfc.trough extending from the larger low to our north. Given weak forcing and limited moisture do not expect much precipitation outside of possibly some snow showers/flurries over the far north, although there could be locally thick stratocumulus at times (particularly over the northern half of the area in the afternoon). Tuesday will be largely uneventful although a dry cold front does look to push in late in the day. Temperatures will generally be about 5 degrees above normal on Monday, and will cool slightly to a couple degrees above climo on Tuesday. Wednesday-Friday. Quiet and dry as high pressure initially centered over central Ontario builds SE over the region. Temperatures will be seasonable through the period with highs generally in the upper 30s to low 40s Wed/Thurs. The High may move offshore by Friday with some return flow developing so Friday could be a bit warmer. Saturday and beyond. A storm system looks to approach (possibly taking the form of a coastal low) next weekend but details regarding the track and associated precipitation and thermal fields are unknown at this time. Left PoPs in the Chc.Range due to timing uncertainties. && .AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas. Overnight...VFR. West winds around 5 to 10 knots. High confidence. Sunday...VFR. West winds increasing around 10 knots with gusts near 20 knots through the afternoon. High confidence. Outlook... Sunday night-Tuesday...Mainly VFR, though cigs could occasionally approach MVFR at times due to stratocumulus. Winds remain west to northwest and may gust up to 20 knots at times during the daytime hours. Moderate confidence. Wednesday/Thursday...Mainly VFR with NW winds 5-10 knots on Wed, and N winds 5 kts or less on Thursday.. && .MARINE... A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for the coastal waters through Sunday afternoon as decaying low pressure over southern Quebec slowly drifts east. Wind gusts will stay close to our just below 25 kts Sunday night with the SCA possibly needing to be extended through the night. Outlook... Monday... Winds and waves will slowly relax through the day Monday as the pressure gradient weakens. Tuesday through Thursday... Winds and waves will remain below advisory levels through the period. && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NJ...None. DE...None. MD...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST Sunday for ANZ450>455. && $$ Synopsis...Carr Near Term...Carr Short Term...Iovino Long Term...Carr Aviation...Carr/Iovino/Meola Marine...Haines

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