Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

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000 FXUS61 KPHI 290222 AFDPHI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 922 PM EST Fri Feb 28 2020 .SYNOPSIS... An upper level trough over New England will slowly push to the north as east as high pressure builds through the weekend. High pressure crests Sunday and begins to slide offshore Sunday as low pressure makes a return by mid week. A series of weak disturbances will slide along a stalled frontal boundary keeping for forecast pattern rather unsettled next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/... Light snow showers and flurries have pretty much ended, and dryer air with surface dewpoints falling into the single digits up north and in the teens down south will spread into the region during the overnight. Lows tonight will fall into the teens for the N/W areas and low/mid 20s for the Lehigh Valley and N NJ. For Delmarva and metro Philadelphia, low will mostly be in the upper 20s. Winds will relax a bit overnight, but still be mostly 5 to 10 mph overnight. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/... High pressure across the Mississippi Valley early Sat will begin to move towards the Ohio Valley by afternoon. This will bring more cold dry air across our area. Highs Sat will probably be a few degrees colder than today (Friday). Some snow showers across the Great Lakes and upstate NY will probably find their way into the Southern Poconos with the upper winds turning more NW ahead of the approaching high. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... The upper level closed low over New England will finally start to push east Saturday evening allow for the center high pressure to drift east during the day on Sunday. This should set up for a pleasant day on Sunday even with temps sitting in the mid 40s across the region. High pressure begins to drift offshore Sunday evening as an upper level low tracks through southern Canada eventually stalling a frontal boundary across the eastern CONUS. There will be several waves of low pressure that ride along that boundary through next week however with the lack of significant forcing, the model spread on timing is frankly all over the place. Thus I`ve opted for continuity in the forecast in keeping the mention of chances for rain daily from Monday night onwards through the middle of next week although I wouldn`t single any day out as a washout. Temps will be warming through the middle of the week with mid 60s on Wednesday with lows doing much of the same warming through the middle of the week peaking Tuesday night in the mid to upper 40s. A cold front finally presses through Wednesday evening and we return to more normal temps to end the week. && .AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas. Tonight...VFR. Low clouds (050-060) will decrease this evening leaving only some transient high clouds overnight. W winds 10-15 kts decreasing late. Some gusts around 20 kts during the evening are possible. Saturday...VFR. Mostly clear early then more daytime CU/SC will probably develop a CIG at many sites by 14Z/15Z. Gusty winds resume with W winds around 15 kts with G 25 kts at times. Outlook... Saturday night through Sunday night...VFR conditions expected. Northwesterly winds 10 to 20 kt on Saturday becoming westerly 5 to 15 kt on Sunday. Moderate Confidence. Monday through Tuesday...Beginning Monday afternoon, there is a chance for periods of MVFR or even IFR conditions as rain moves into the region. Moderate confidence that all TAF sites will see rain, but low confidence if this will translate to a prolonged period of MVFR/IFR conditions. && .MARINE... Sub-SCA conditions on tap through the overnight. On Saturday, winds and seas will increase again. SCA in effect from Saturday morning through Saturday night. Fair weather is expected for tonight and Saturday. Seas 3 to 5 ft mostly for the ocean and 1 to 3 ft. on Del Bay. Outlook... Saturday Night: SCA expected with northwesterly wind gusts to 30 kt. Wave heights generally 3 to 5 feet. Sunday: SCA expected. Wind gusts to 25 kt. Wave heights up to 4 feet. Sunday Night: SCA eventually relaxing to Sub-SCA. Wind gusts to 20 kt. Wave heights decreasing to below 5 feet overnight. Monday: SCA conditions expected with southerly wind gusts to 20 kt. Wave heights will be building to 6 feet. Slight chance SHRA. Monday Night: SCA conditions expected. Southerly wind gusts to 20 kt. Wave heights up to 6 feet. Chance SHRA. Tuesday: SCA conditions possible with south southwesterly wind gusts to 25 kt. Wave heights up to 4 feet. Chance SHRA. Tuesday Night: SCA Conditions possible. Wind gusts to 25 kt. Wave heights up to 7 feet. Chance SHRA. && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NJ...None. DE...None. MD...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM Saturday to 6 AM EST Sunday for ANZ430-431-450>455. && $$ Synopsis...Deal Near Term...MPS/O`Hara Short Term...O`Hara Long Term...Deal Aviation...Deal/O`Hara Marine...Deal/MPS/O`Hara

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