Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

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FXUS61 KPHI 080202
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
902 PM EST Sun Mar 7 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure and dry weather will dominate through most of the
new week, with a warming trend. A cold front will approach and
cross through the region Friday or Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
High pressure extended from the lower Mississippi River Valley
northeastward to Quebec this evening. The axis of the ridge will
continue to slide to the east overnight and on Monday. The air
mass will bring cold dry weather to our region.

A light and variable wind is expected overnight under a clear
sky. The conditions will allow temperatures to drop into the
teens and lower 20s at most locations.

A mostly sunny sky is anticipated for Monday along with a
northwest to west wind 5 to 10 MPH. Temperatures will remain
chilly with highs mostly in the lower and middle 40s. Readings
should not get above the 30s in the elevated terrain of the
Poconos and far northern New Jersey. The expected temperatures
are about 5 or 6 degrees below normal for March 8th.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The well-advertised and long awaited warm-up finally arrives
during the midweek period. The forecast philosophy for this
period is largely unchanged, as troughing departs offshore and
strong ridging builds into the East. A large center of surface
high pressure will gradually shift from over the Southeast out
into the western Atlantic This ridging and high pressure
dominated pattern will send temperatures rising and leave our
region far removed from any chance of precipitation.

Tuesday will begin seasonably chilly, but sunshine and dry air
will promote efficient heating. The air mass won`t yet be quite
warm enough to support the level of warmth expected later in the
week. But it will still be a pleasant day and a big departure
from the recent lengthy stretch of colder than normal days.
Highs will rise into the upper 50s and low 60s, a good 10
degrees above average with light westerly winds. Lows Tuesday
night won`t be cold as previous nights, but we will still
radiate well and fall back into the 30s.

On Wednesday, we again see sunny skies and dry air, and the air
mass will have warmed a little further. Because of that, many
areas will see highs in the 60s on Wednesday, with some mid 60s
expected. One difference for Wednesday, and a bit of a change
from previous cycles, is that the wind direction looks more due
southerly or even a bit east of south for most of the day, as
opposed to west of south. This will yield temperatures several
degrees cooler near the coast, especially eastern Monmouth and
Ocean counties.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Overview...

Unseasonably warm weather continues into the end of the work
week as strong ridging remains in place over the East. Warm
conditions will remain in place as long as our region stays
south of a sharp frontal zone dividing the warmer air over us
from much colder air to the north. Trends last night and today
have been to keep that frontal zone north of us for longer and
to amplify the Eastern ridge a little more. This means
conditions could become even a little warmer than had already
been expected late this week, with 70 degree readings becoming a
real possibility for Thursday and Friday in some areas. By next
weekend, it still looks like the front will drift far enough
south to move through the region, bringing much cooler
temperatures.

As with the temperatures, precipitation chances will be closely
tied to the approach of the front. No measurable precipitation
is expected through Thursday. Showery weather associated with
the front could arrive across the northwestern zones as early as
Thursday night, but more likely will hold off until later
Friday or Friday night. But even once the front arrives,
precipitation should be on the light side.

Dailies...

Thursday-Friday...The warm spell continues, and becomes even
more pronounced heading towards the end of the week. Ridging
over the East reaches its maximum strength, and temperatures
aloft continue to warm. Thursday will be similar to Wednesday in
many ways, and with the air mass a little warmer we will likely
break into the upper 60s in many areas, and may touch 70 in a
few spots. The ocean influence should be lesser on Thursday with
a southwest flow, so the coastal cooling effect will not be as
pronounced. One note on Thursday`s forecast, is that winds are
trending a bit higher, with southwesterly gusts of 20 to 25 mph
looking possible, and minimum RH values are forecast to be near
40%. So combined with the warm temperatures and very lengthy dry
spell, this will at least be pushing us close to fire weather
thresholds, and we will likely be in coordination with our
partners.

For Friday, there continue to be some timing differences with
the approaching cold front. The EC has been more progressive
than the GFS in bringing the front through, but the overall
trend the past couple of cycles has been a bit slower on its
passage, keeping us in the warmer air mass. If the front stays
far enough north, Friday could be the warmest day of the week
especially in southern areas, and have forecast highs in the
upper 60s to around 70. Uncertainty is still a little higher on
Friday, as numbers could be cooler if the front starts to move
in sooner, or could even be a little warmer with more widespread
low 70s if it stays safely north. In addition, continuing to
mention a 20 to 30 percent chance of showers, mainly in the
afternoon, for most of the region given the possibility that the
front could be close enough for this to occur.

Saturday-Sunday... By the weekend, it is likely that the cold
front dropping down from the north-northwest will have moved
through, though some guidance suggests it may stall over or just
south of the region. Either way, temperatures on Saturday
appear likely to fall back towards normal levels, and may drop
below normal by Sunday. With the possibility of the front still
being nearby, maintained generic slgt chc to low end chc PoPs
for the weekend, with no use at this stage trying to time the
best chances. Any precipitation over the weekend continues to
look light.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Overnight...VFR under a clear sky. Variable wind 6 knots or
less. High confidence.

Monday...VFR under a mostly clear sky. Northwest to west wind 5
to 10 knots. High confidence.

Outlook...

Monday night... VFR. Southwest wind around 5 kt. High
confidence.

Tuesday-Tuesday night... VFR. Southwest wind 5 to 10 kt
gradually shifting to west-northwest through the day, then light
and variable overnight. High confidence.

Wednesday-Wednesday night... VFR. Light winds become
southeasterly Wednesday morning, then gradually shift to
southerly and south- southwesterly through the day and night
with speeds of 5 to 10 kt. High confidence.

Thursday-Friday... VFR. Southwest wind 10 to 15 kt. High
confidence.

&&

.MARINE...
Sub-advisory conditions expected on the coastal waters and
across the bay as northwest flow continues with gusts generally
at 15 knots or less. Seas from 1 to 3 feet. Seas could be
somewhat choppy with short periods of 3 to 4 seconds the through
Monday.

Outlook...

Monday night-Wednesday night... No marine headlines are
anticipated. Several wind shifts through the period with gusts
20 kt or less. Seas 1 to 3 ft. Fair weather.

Thursday-Thursday night... SCA criteria may be approached as
southwest winds gust close to 25 kt and seas build to 4 to 5 ft.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A prolonged dry period will remain in place over the region, so
there will be continued monitoring for fire weather potential
this week. Winds appear low enough to preclude any fire weather
concerns through at least Wednesday. Monday should have fairly
dry conditions with RH levels dropping to below 40%. Tuesday and
Wednesday will be similarly dry and also much warmer than
normal with highs in the 60s. By Thursday, a combination of warm
temperatures, breezier conditions, and RH levels near 40% may
lead to an increase in fire weather concerns.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

Synopsis...O`Brien
Near Term...Iovino
Short Term...O`Brien
Long Term...O`Brien
Aviation...Iovino/O`Brien
Marine...Deal/O`Brien
Fire Weather...WFO PHI



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