070
FXUS65 KPIH 151959
AFDPIH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
159 PM MDT Thu May 15 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and thunderstorms this evening then drying overnight.

- Another potent low pressure system expected for the weekend
  bringing more rain/storms and cold temperatures Sunday after
  milder temperatures on Saturday.

- Gradual improvement expected early next week with a warmup
  likely mid/late next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 136 PM MDT Thu May 15 2025

A weak short wave in cool northwesterly flow is kicking off
showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening mainly in
the Upper Snake River Plain and eastern mountains with isolated
coverage elsewhere. Will have at least a slight chance of
convective activity through sunset. Have a lake wind advisory in
effect for the American Falls Reservoir until 8 pm as sustained
winds around 20 mph have been present since about 10 am and will
also die down at sunset. Lows tonight mainly in the 20s and 30s
mountains and 30s to around 40 valleys. Friday will be similar
to today with another weak wave in more westerly flow aloft
moving through Idaho with afternoon showers and thunderstorms
expected with the most coverage again in mountainous regions
with at least a slight chance in valleys. Highs mainly in the
40s and 50s mountains and 50s to lower 60s valleys with
sustained west to southwest winds 10 to 20 mph again in the
Snake River Plain.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 136 PM MDT Thu May 15 2025

Saturday looks to be the warmest day of the week, though given how
cool we`ve been, that`s not saying a whole lot. Highs will be in the
mid to upper 60s through most of the eastern Magic Valley and Snake
River Plain, but this "warmth" won`t last long. By Saturday
afternoon, our next system is moving into Eastern Idaho as an upper
level trough arrives. The low itself will arrive late Sunday, but
expect more widespread showers and storms to begin Saturday and
continue through Sunday with some wrap-around moisture lingering in
the eastern half of our CWA on Monday as the low splits, but still
moves east/southeast. This system will drop temperatures into the
50s on Sunday and Monday before we begin to warm up once again with
60s on Tuesday and Wednesday with a few of us reaching the low 70s
as early as Wednesday. This warm up comes as high pressure begins to
build back in over the area.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1126 AM MDT Thu May 15 2025

Isolated to scattered showers and storms will continue on and off
throughout the rest of today as an upper level low slowly makes its
way eastward. BYI may miss out on the fun today and it will be close
to SUN, but impacts are more likely at PIH, IDA, and DIJ. If/when a
shower or storm tracks directly over a terminal, look for impacts to
CIG and VIS down to at least MVFR categories, otherwise we will be
mostly VFR today. Some borderline VFR/MVFR SCT/BKN CIGs will persist
at DIJ and IDA today and it will get breezy at all sites, too, with
gusts around 20 to 25 kts at BYI, IDA, and PIH. Look for a brief
break in the showers and storms early Friday, with another round
expected Friday afternoon.

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GK
LONG TERM...AMM
AVIATION...AMM