624
FXUS65 KPIH 192042
AFDPIH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
242 PM MDT Sun May 19 2024

.SHORT TERM...Today and Monday.
Looking at current satellite imagery there is a cold front/trough
over eastern Wyoming and further upstream another trough/system
just off the coast of Oregon/Washington.

A cold front moved through our area earlier this morning leaving
breezy to moderate winds this afternoon with gusts of 30 to 40
mph. Expect winds to continue to slowly back off this afternoon.
The wind advisory for the Arco desert, Upper Snake plain, and
Lower Snake plain is still in effect until 6 pm this evening.
Expect scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms this
afternoon/early evening mainly along the Montana Divide. Little
accumulation of precipitation is expected.

Tomorrow morning look for cooler temperatures, low to mid 30s,
for most locations. A frost advisory is in effect for tomorrow
morning from 3 am to 9 am for all our frost/freeze zones,
including Shoshone, Eastern Magic Valley, Arco desert, and the
Upper/Lower Snake plain. There is a 50 to 60 percent chance of
dropping to 32 degrees for some areas in the Shoshone area/zone
and a 40 to 50 percent chance of temperatures dropping to 32
degrees in the Upper Snake plain. With another trough/system
moving over the area tomorrow, look for scattered to widespread
showers and isolated thunderstorms for the southern Central
mountain, southern Big Lost range, and southern Lemhi range. Look
for 3 to 6 inches of snow for these mountain areas, generally
above 5500 to 6000 feet. Some areas in Pioneer mountains could see
up to 9 inches of snow. Expect isolated showers and isolated
thunderstorms for most of the rest of our area on Monday. Our
southern regions along the Utah border will see very limited
showers/thunderstorms and resulting precipitation, generally less
than 0.02 inches.

Temperatures will be 8 to 12 degrees below normal today and
Monday.
TW

.LONG TERM...Temperatures fall into the 20s and 30s Thursday
morning, so we may need some more frost/freeze products and we
will see snow in the mountains with a 20 to 40 percent chance of
at least 2 inches of snow for areas above 7500 ft. Thursday will
be the coolest day of the week with highs in the 50s through the
Snake Plain and eastern Magic Valley while the higher elevation
areas struggle to even reach the 50 degree mark. The wind will
continue to gust between 25 to 35 mph each afternoon from Thursday
through the weekend, too. We will begin to gradually warm after
Thursday with highs returning to the 50s and 60s for most on
Friday, Saturday, and Sunday. We will even see a 50 to 70 percent
chance of hitting 70 degrees on Saturday in the Eastern Magic
Valley and Snake Plain. During the Friday through Sunday
timeframe, models aren`t quite in agreement on the placement,
track, and strength of another system heading our way, so we will
keep in a general 20 percent chance for showers Friday and about a
30 to 40 percent chance on Saturday and Sunday.
AMM

&&

.AVIATION...18Z Sunday through 18Z Monday.
The wind will continue to be the biggest impact at all terminals
today, but especially at BYI, PIH, and IDA where gusts will remain
in the 25 to 35 kt range through the evening. At SUN and DIJ, gusts
will be closer to the 20 to 25 kt range. Winds will be much lighter
after midnight and gusts remain below 25 kts on Monday. Cloud cover
will begin to increase tonight through Monday as our next system
arrives, though conditions are expected to remain VFR. Showers
return to the forecast on Monday, too, with the HREF showing a
blanket 20 to 40 percent chance of thunder at all sites on Monday
with a bullseye of 40 to 50 percent chance at SUN.
AMM

&&

.HYDROLOGY...A flood warning continues for the Portneuf river in
Pocatello.  A flood advisory continues along the Portneuf river at
Topaz. Water levels are slowly receding for the Portneuf river due
to the snowpack diminishing and slightly overall cooler
temperatures.  River levels for most other big rivers look to
remain the same this week, if not slightly less, due to overall
slightly cooler temperatures expected this week. However, warmer
temperatures, perhaps the warmest of the year, look to return the
week of May 27th, which should bring increased runoff for most
other big rivers.
TW

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Frost Advisory from 3 AM to 9 AM MDT Monday for IDZ051>055.

Wind Advisory until 6 PM MDT this evening for IDZ052>054.

&&

$$