


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Phoenix, AZ
Issued by NWS Phoenix, AZ
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609 FXUS65 KPSR 232149 AFDPSR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Phoenix AZ 249 PM MST Fri May 23 2025 .DISCUSSION... Key Messages: 1) Slight cooling with afternoon high temperatures returning to near normal readings this weekend into early next week 2) Enhanced breeziness during the afternoon and evening today and tomorrow will lead to locally elevated fire danger 3) Dry conditions continue through next week with afternoon temperatures to climb to slightly above normal during the latter part of next week Early afternoon satellite WV imagery and RAP analysis show a shortwave trough starting to move inland over the California coast. Locally, dry southwesterly flow aloft is allowing for mostly clear skies and plenty of sunshine this afternoon across the region. Temperatures today will be pretty similar to yesterday`s as highs top out between 99-104 degrees for most lower desert areas. Areas of Moderate HeatRisk are in place for today, so the proper heat safety precautions should be exercised to avoid any heat-related illnesses. As we head into the Memorial Day weekend, afternoon temperatures will return to near normal readings as the shortwave trough propagates through our area and lowers 500 mb heights down to around 578-582 dm. Forecast highs Saturday through Monday will be in the mid to upper 90s to around 100 degrees across lower desert locales and upper 80s to low 90s for higher elevation areas such as Globe and San Carlos. Minor HeatRisk will persist through the holiday weekend, so be sure to stay cool and hydrated through if you have outdoor plans. The primary sensible weather impact associated with the aforementioned passing shortwave will be increased gustiness across the region through the rest of this afternoon and Saturday afternoon. Most areas will see gusts up to around 20-25 mph, however, there will be some locally higher gusts around 30-35 mph, primarily across western portions of Imperial County where an isolated gust around 40 mph could occur. Similar to prior iterations of the forecast, have adjusted winds upward to better reflect these stronger winds. The gusty winds combined with very dry conditions in place will lead to some elevated fire weather conditions through the rest of this afternoon and again tomorrow afternoon. Anyone traveling to the Arizona high terrain this weekend should take care to avoid new wildfire starts. Following the passage of the shortwave trough Sunday into Monday, overall quasi-zonal flow will prevail through the first part of next week with little change in heights during this time. Confidence is excellent that temperatures will remain near normal with only minor day-to-day variation in forecast highs. Confidence decreases heading into the latter half of next week as operational and ensemble guidance depict a cutoff low setting up somewhere off the coast of California. Depending on where it sets up, the proximity of the low to our forecast area will influence the temperature forecast later next week. Thus, this uncertainty is reflected in the NBM IQR with greater spread in high temperature outcomes. && .AVIATION...Updated at 1705Z. South Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, KDVT: No major weather issues will exist through Saturday afternoon under clear skies. Trends in winds will be similar to the past 24 hours with a somewhat more pronounced period of a southerly cross runway component (140v210) early afternoon. Confidence is good that periodic gusts 15-20kt will be common late afternoon/early evening before reverting to the typical overnight easterly direction. Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH: Some enhanced late afternoon/early evening wind gusts will be the only weather issue through Saturday afternoon under clear skies. Confidence is only moderate with respect to the onset time of stronger gusts, however 20-30kt gusts should be common by late afternoon, then continue into the early/mid evening. Gusts may be somewhat stronger for a short period at KIPL which could result in some lofted dust and slantwise visibility issues. && .FIRE WEATHER... Very dry conditions and gusty winds will lead to elevated fire weather conditions through the rest of this afternoon and again Saturday afternoon. Expect gusts up to around 20-25 mph each afternoon, with locally stronger gusts around 30-35 mph the next couple of evenings primarily across Imperial County. Min RHs will be around 5-10% each day, while overnight Max RHs range between 20-40% for most areas. Temperatures will cool to near normal readings this weekend and persist into early next week. Daily afternoon breezes gusting upwards of 20-25 mph are expected next week with very dry conditions persisting. && .PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AZ...None. CA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Smith AVIATION...18 FIRE WEATHER...Smith