609
FXUS65 KPSR 232149
AFDPSR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
249 PM MST Fri May 23 2025

.DISCUSSION...

Key Messages:

1) Slight cooling with afternoon high temperatures returning to
near normal readings this weekend into early next week

2) Enhanced breeziness during the afternoon and evening today and
tomorrow will lead to locally elevated fire danger

3) Dry conditions continue through next week with afternoon
temperatures to climb to slightly above normal during the latter
part of next week

Early afternoon satellite WV imagery and RAP analysis show a
shortwave trough starting to move inland over the California coast.
Locally, dry southwesterly flow aloft is allowing for mostly clear
skies and plenty of sunshine this afternoon across the region.
Temperatures today will be pretty similar to yesterday`s as highs
top out between 99-104 degrees for most lower desert areas. Areas of
Moderate HeatRisk are in place for today, so the proper heat safety
precautions should be exercised to avoid any heat-related illnesses.
As we head into the Memorial Day weekend, afternoon temperatures
will return to near normal readings as the shortwave trough
propagates through our area and lowers 500 mb heights down to around
578-582 dm. Forecast highs Saturday through Monday will be in the
mid to upper 90s to around 100 degrees across lower desert locales
and upper 80s to low 90s for higher elevation areas such as Globe
and San Carlos. Minor HeatRisk will persist through the holiday
weekend, so be sure to stay cool and hydrated through if you have
outdoor plans.

The primary sensible weather impact associated with the
aforementioned passing shortwave will be increased gustiness
across the region through the rest of this afternoon and Saturday
afternoon. Most areas will see gusts up to around 20-25 mph,
however, there will be some locally higher gusts around 30-35 mph,
primarily across western portions of Imperial County where an
isolated gust around 40 mph could occur. Similar to prior
iterations of the forecast, have adjusted winds upward to better
reflect these stronger winds. The gusty winds combined with very
dry conditions in place will lead to some elevated fire weather
conditions through the rest of this afternoon and again tomorrow
afternoon. Anyone traveling to the Arizona high terrain this
weekend should take care to avoid new wildfire starts.

Following the passage of the shortwave trough Sunday into Monday,
overall quasi-zonal flow will prevail through the first part of
next week with little change in heights during this time.
Confidence is excellent that temperatures will remain near normal
with only minor day-to-day variation in forecast highs. Confidence
decreases heading into the latter half of next week as
operational and ensemble guidance depict a cutoff low setting up
somewhere off the coast of California. Depending on where it sets
up, the proximity of the low to our forecast area will influence
the temperature forecast later next week. Thus, this uncertainty
is reflected in the NBM IQR with greater spread in high
temperature outcomes.

&&

.AVIATION...Updated at 1705Z.

South Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, KDVT:
No major weather issues will exist through Saturday afternoon
under clear skies. Trends in winds will be similar to the past 24
hours with a somewhat more pronounced period of a southerly cross
runway component (140v210) early afternoon. Confidence is good that
periodic gusts 15-20kt will be common late afternoon/early evening
before reverting to the typical overnight easterly direction.

Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:
Some enhanced late afternoon/early evening wind gusts will be the
only weather issue through Saturday afternoon under clear skies.
Confidence is only moderate with respect to the onset time of
stronger gusts, however 20-30kt gusts should be common by late
afternoon, then continue into the early/mid evening. Gusts may be
somewhat stronger for a short period at KIPL which could result in
some lofted dust and slantwise visibility issues.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Very dry conditions and gusty winds will lead to elevated fire
weather conditions through the rest of this afternoon and again
Saturday afternoon. Expect gusts up to around 20-25 mph each
afternoon, with locally stronger gusts around 30-35 mph the next
couple of evenings primarily across Imperial County. Min RHs will
be around 5-10% each day, while overnight Max RHs range between
20-40% for most areas. Temperatures will cool to near normal
readings this weekend and persist into early next week. Daily
afternoon breezes gusting upwards of 20-25 mph are expected next
week with very dry conditions persisting.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...None.
CA...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Smith
AVIATION...18
FIRE WEATHER...Smith