Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Phoenix, AZ

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FXUS65 KPSR 262253

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
353 PM MST Sat Nov 26 2022

.UPDATE...0Z Aviation Discussion (Below)

Pleasant weather conditions will continue across the region
through the rest of the holiday weekend under weak high pressure.
Temperatures will remain at or slightly below normal over the next
couple of days ahead of a bit more active weather where breezy to
windy conditions are likely to develop or portions of the area
Monday and last into Tuesday. A dry cold front will also move
through on Tuesday leading to highs briefly dipping into the
sixties. Going into the latter half of next week, dry conditions
and temperatures at or slightly below normal are likely to


Dry northwesterly flow will persist across the region over the
next several days with a deep trough first centered over the
midsection of the country before another trough gets carved out
across the Western U.S. during the early part of next week. For
the rest of the weekend, very little will change as far as
sensible weather conditions with mostly clear skies and highs
again on Sunday in the upper 60s in Phoenix to the lower 70s
across the western deserts.

On Monday, a cold Pacific shortwave trough will dive through the
Pacific Northwest reaching the Great Basin later in the day. For
our region by the afternoon, height falls will increase and
westerly winds aloft will increase. This should lead to breezy to
windy conditions by late afternoon across southeast California
with near advisory level winds possible across Imperial County
Monday evening into the early overnight hours. Model ensembles
continue to show good agreement with this shortwave trough mostly
missing our area to the north Monday night into Tuesday with the
main PV anomaly tracking across the Four Corners area on Tuesday.
Slight moisture advection into Arizona is seen ahead of a weak
cold front Monday night, but with little to no dynamic support
for precip development PoPs of 10-20% Tuesday morning are limited
Gila County east of Phoenix. The cold front is forecast to
quickly track through the area early Tuesday, so highs Tuesday
will only manage to top out in the mid 60s for the bulk of the
lower deserts.

By Wednesday, our weather pattern returns to a dry westerly flow
aloft with upper level heights quickly improving. This will give a
slight boost to our temperatures already on Wednesday with highs
mostly in the upper 60s. Through the rest of the workweek, the
westerly flow will dominate, but with some increasing clouds
likely Thursday into Friday as another Pacific trough is favored
to develop just off the West Coast. Thursday and Friday overall
look good for our region with temperatures improving slightly,
possibly pushing highs back into the lower 70s. Looking further
ahead into next weekend, model spread is high but there is a high
likelihood of the trough off the West Coast eventually impacting
our region with precipitation chances at some point next weekend
and/or into early the following week.


.AVIATION...Updated 23Z.

South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT; and
Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:

No changes to earlier reasoning with quiet weather holding. Only
a few passing high cirrus clouds through the period. Wind
directions to follow typical diurnal trends with speeds mainly aob
8 kt. In fact, prolonged periods of nearly calm conditions will
be common.


Dry conditions with normal to slightly below normal temperatures are
expected through Monday. No notable trends in RH`s are expected
until Monday night when recovery should be good as remnants of a
weather front increases the moisture profiles into Tuesday. Winds
are expected to become breezy to locally windy across higher terrain
on Monday with west to southwest flow. Precipitation chances
continuing to trend down, with the latest wetting rains chances no
more than 5% Monday night into Tuesday across higher terrain of Gila
and Pinal Counties.




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