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000
FXUS62 KRAH 041514
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
1012 AM EST Thu Mar 4 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
A dry cold front will push through our region later this afternoon
and evening. Chilly high pressure will follow and extend across the
central Appalachians and southern middle Atlantic through the
weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
As of 930 AM Thursday...

Cold weather this morning is quickly rebounding as late morning
temperatures have risen into the mid 50s to low 60s. Breezy
northwesterly winds will develop across the region today as a dry
cold front pushes south across the region. Highest gusts will range
from 20-25 mph by the afternoon. Drier air will follow behind the
front, helping dewpoints to lower into the low 20s near the Triad to
the low 30s near the NC/SC border. Highs this afternoon will be
around 5 to 10 degrees above seasonal normals, with temperatures
ranging from the mid 60s north to the low 70s south.

Winds will diminish by this evening and with mostly clear skies,
radiational cooling will allow temperatures to dip into the low 30s
north and the upper 30s south.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 145 AM Thursday...

Continued sunny, dry, and colder Friday and Friday night.

A cold surface high pressure will build from the upper Midwest SE
across the Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic states Friday and Friday
night. NW winds at 10-15 mph can be expected Friday with very dry
air advection with this flow. Highs will top out only in the 50-56
range from NE to SW.

Clear and cold conditions are forecast Friday night with winds
becoming calm. Lows in the 20s to around 30 (SE).

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 330 AM Thursday...

Dry weather will continue during the medium range portion of the
forecast, with slightly below normal temps to start the period
warming to well above normal by mid next week.

A deepening northern stream trough across the eastern U.S. will help
to keep a disturbance moving across the deep south and southeast
U.S. this weekend to our south. This will result in a continuation
of dry weather for central NC will cool/cold surface high pressure
extending/building into the area for the weekend. Expect high temps
will generally be in the 50s, with lows in the mid to upper 20s.

Mean ridging aloft will build into the area next week as surface
high pressure quickly moves across the area on Monday and offshore
on Tuesday. This will allow for a warming trend with high temps from
the 50s to lower 60s Monday to the upper 60s and lower 70s by
Wednesday, with continuation of dry conditions.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 630 AM Thursday...

There is high confidence that VFR conditions will prevail through
12z/Fri. Surface winds of 10-20kt from the NW between 15z and 22z,
will decrease to less than 10kt tonight.

Outlook: Under the influence of high pressure, VFR conditions are
expected into early next week.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
As of 145 AM Thursday...

Wet antecedent conditions mitigate fire weather concerns today...

Breezy NW winds today will be in the 10-20 mph range, with gusts to
25 mph. Minimum RH should fall into the 15-20 percent range in the
NW and in the 20s elsewhere. These are dry conditions, but the winds
are fairly marginal for fire danger concern (winds are a bit limited
as they essentially just touch 25 mph in gusts). However, the main
mitigating factor is the excessively wet conditions (mud) generally
everywhere. The fine fuels are drying somewhat - but not enough yet
for fire weather concerns.

&&


.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Badgett
NEAR TERM...JJT
SHORT TERM...Badgett
LONG TERM...BSD
AVIATION...Badgett
FIRE WEATHER...Badgett