Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 261145 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 745 AM EDT Fri Apr 26 2019 .SYNOPSIS... A strong cold front will cross central NC this afternoon, proceeded by numerous showers and a few thunderstorms. High pressure will build in behind the front on Saturday. This high will drift offshore Sunday, allowing a dry cold front to cross our region late Sunday and Sunday night. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 410 AM Friday... A convectively active weather day expected today (though not in comparison to last Friday), followed by tranquil weather for the weekend with seasonal temperatures. Water vapor imagery early this morning depicts phasing occurring with the southern stream system lifting through the western Carolinas, being absorbed by the northern stream system. Convection associated with the southern s/w has raced eastward into portions of northern FL/southern GA and the northeast Gulf of Mexico. This area of convection appears to have temporarily disrupted the 850mb moisture transport into central NC. This has resulted in just patchy light rain over the region since midnight with most locations just receiving a trace. As the convection weakens this morning, expect a resumption of the sly flow into our region, leading to a rejuvenation of showers and potentially a t-storm or two prior to mid day. With the phasing already underway, a slug of dry air in the mid layers will likely expand newd across our region later today. The arrival of this drier air mass will serve to end the production of showers and storms a few hours sooner than earlier expected. Thus, expect most locations west of highway 1 to be rain-free by late afternoon, and over the entire region around or just after sunset. Still rather potent dynamics in the atmosphere as a 120kt upper jet rounds the base of the upper trough this afternoon. Meanwhile low level sly flow will advect abundant low level moisture primarily into our Coastal Plain counties later this morning. While surface based instability marginal, kinematics of sufficient strength to support/sustain strong updrafts, mainly east of highway 1. Thus, expect a few strong/severe storms from mid day through late afternoon over roughly the eastern half of the forecast area with the threat for severe convection rapidly dwindling after 21Z. Main weather hazard will be damaging straightline winds, though an isolated weak/brief tornado cannot be ruled out. The surge of dry air aloft accompanied by the strong winds aloft rounding the base of the trough will cause a period of strong gusty winds along and immediately behind the surface cold front this afternoon. Anticipate wind gusts in the 30-40 mph range this afternoon over the western Piedmont, with an isolated gust in excess of 45 mph possible. Ahead of the front, sly winds over the Coastal Plain may gust around 30 mph. Temperatures starting out very mild in the 65-70 degree range. Expect temperatures to only recover 5-7 degrees across the Piedmont where shower coverage will be on the increase this morning. If partial breaks occur across the Sandhills and Coastal Plain, a few places may reach 80 degrees. Expect clearing skies this evening, and cooler temperatures overnight as a drier cooler air mass overspreads the region. Min temperatures in the 45-50 degree range expected. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/... As of 415 AM Saturday... Tranquil weather expected Saturday as high pressure temporarily extends into our region from a parent high to our south southwest. Circulation around this weather system will result in wly low level flow. The slight downslope component will offset modest cold air advection, resulting in temperatures close to normal for late April, in the mid-upper 70s. If we mix as high as the GFS suggest, max temperatures may end up a couple of degrees warmer. A s/w in the northern stream will skirt to our north Saturday night. This system will produce a veil of mid/high level clouds over central NC with a few sprinkles possible overnight north of highway 64. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 312 AM Friday... A sfc cold front is forecast to drift south across our area on Sunday. Models continue to depict very limited deep layer moisture given prefrontal westerly flow, and thus limited rain chances associated with this front. So for now will keep forecast dry on Sunday. Given a late-day fropa, highs should climb into the 80s. High pressure from the north will follow the front for Monday, bringing a brief cooling trend. Dry wx for Monday with highs in the lower-mid 70s. Otherwise, Sunday`s front will lift back to our north late Monday or Monday night, then will be followed by mid-level ridge amplifying over the Southeast, which should keep our forecast very warm and dry right through the middle of the week, with the next chance for rain holding off until the latter part of the work week. && .AVIATION /12Z Friday THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 745 AM Friday... While VFR conditions will occur across most of central NC through 22Z, there will be periods of MVFR conditions associated with scattered showers and thunderstorms. Breezy sly sfc winds will gusts around 25kts. In vicinity of the stronger storms, wind gust 40-50kts probable along with torrential downpours. The convective threat will diminish in vicinity of the Triad terminals by 20Z, and elsewhere by 00Z. Immediately behind the sfc front, west northwest sfc winds will gusts 30-40kts in vicinity of the Triad and possibly KRDU. These gusts will last 1-3 hours then subside to less than 20kts. VFR parameters expected tonight through Sunday. There will be an increase in cloudiness Saturday night though it should be mainly mid/high level clouds. The next chance for sub VFR parameters will occur early Monday as a stalled sfc front across our region will likely lead to moisture pooling and the possible development of low clouds or fog. Low end VFR/MVFR ceilings will be possible for brief instances Monday into Tuesday. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...WSS NEAR TERM...WSS SHORT TERM...WSS LONG TERM...np AVIATION...WSS

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