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000
FXUS62 KRAH 281802
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
159 PM EDT Sat Mar 28 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
A warm front over northeastern NC will move north into VA this
afternoon. A strong high pressure aloft will extend over the
state through the weekend, bringing an early season hot spell.
A cold front will push southeast through the area Sunday night,
bringing cooler temperatures Monday. Rain chances and cool
temperatures increase by Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 150 PM Saturday...

...Record heat for some locations this afternoon...

The warm front over NE North Carolina is now lifting northward. It
will be in southern VA this afternoon. The low level stratus
that extended across the northern Piedmont including NE Forsyth,
northern Guilford, northern Orange to Granville and Warren counties
was finally dissolving as the SW flow and top down drying increase.
All of our region will be in the warm sector this afternoon with
mostly sunny skies and rapidly warming temperatures. Records will
likely be challenged or broken at Fayetteville and Lumberton. Others
may be challenged. The list of records is in the climate section
below. Expect highs this afternoon of 85-90.

Mostly clear skies will continue tonight beneath the building ridge
aloft. Expect unseasonably warm lows in the 60s with a light SW
breeze.
&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 159 PM Saturday...

Near record warmth out ahead of the cold front Sunday afternoon...

The main story Sunday will be the near record warmth. Expect mostly
sunny skies in the east and south, with partly sunny skies north and
west. WAA out ahead of the approaching cold front will aid
temperatures to reach the mid 80s to near 90. The hottest readings
will be in the Sandhills aided by the SW flow at 15-25 mph. The
winds will slowly turn westerly as the pre-frontal trough pushes
east into the western Piedmont during the mid to late afternoon.
This will allow some lower dew points and drier air to flow off the
Blue Ridge

The main cold front will reach the region Sunday evening and push
offshore late Sunday night. A pre-frontal surface trough is
expected to form in the Foothills during the afternoon. There
is very limited lift forecast as the main dynamics will pass well to
our north. There will most likely be MLCapes increasing as the
temperatures rise into the mid to upper 80s (near record heat
for late March, combined with dew points in the lower to mid 60s
(ample low level moisture, especially for late March). The wind
shear will be increasing to between 35-40kt in the NW-N Piedmont.
Even with MLCapes in the 1000-1500 J/Kg range and 35 to 40kt of bulk
shear, the more significant height falls and large scale lift well
north will most likely hinder convection initiation along the
pre-frontal trough and/or cold front over central and eastern NC.
We will keep only slight chances in the afternoon and early evening,
mainly northwest and north.

The cold front should push through the region on Sunday night. Winds
will become westerly behind the front, but decrease to around 10 mph
overnight. Lows Sunday night will slowly ease into the mid 50s NW to
lower 60s SE with mostly clear skies.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 220 AM Saturday...

Monday through Wednesday: A low pressure system will develop off the
Rockies on Monday and swing through the Plains and MS Valley through
Tuesday. This low will open as it lifts north through the OH Valley
and into the mid-Atlantic, becoming absorbed into the larger scale
low as a shortwave Tuesday night/Wednesday. The parent upper low
will sit over the Northeast US/SE Canada as the shortwave moves
through the region. The low will continue its eastward progression
off the mid-Atlantic coast and over the Atlantic on Wednesday.
Meanwhile, the surface low that develops in response to the upper
low off the eastern Rockies on Monday will progress almost due east
through the Plains and Southern MS Valley and into the TN Valley by
Tuesday. Models continue to suggest that the preceding warm front
will remain south of the area through Tuesday afternoon as high
pressure tries to ridge southward into the region from Canada. As
the surface low continues to push east Tuesday afternoon, the
original low will split into two lows, one lifting northeast along
the Appalachians and the second, which becomes the dominant low,
swinging around the southern Appalachians and through the Southeast
US. For now the low is expected to lift northeast through SC and
eastern NC Tuesday eve/night while the warm front tries to lift into
southern portions of NC. The temperature and precipitation will
depend greatly on the track this low takes, but generally expect the
highest, more convective rainfall amounts farther south and east
with more stratiform precipitation falling on the cool side of the
front. Likewise, temperatures should be highest south and east,
lowest northwest. Generally expect above normal temperatures on
Monday, decreasing through Tuesday night. Based on current timing,
dry weather should return Wednesday night as the low lifts away from
the region.

Thursday and Friday: Dry weather and seasonable temperatures should
persist through at least Friday night, however the medium-range
models vary significantly and thus forecast confidence is low at
this time.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 130 AM Saturday...

VFR conditions will be prevalent across much of central NC over the
next 24 hours.

Looking beyond 18z Sun, VFR conditions will dominate for the next
few days, although there is a chance for brief MVFR conditions in an
isolated storm near INT/GSO late Sun or Sun evening, ahead of a cold
front that will move through Sun night. VFR conditions should hold
through the first part of Tue, but an approaching storm system from
the west will bring a good chance of sub-VFR conditions in rain Tue
afternoon through Wed.
&&

.CLIMATE...

                            REC
           REC              HI
DAY        MAX    YR        MIN    YR

RDU Records
03/28       91    1907      65    1907
03/29       94    1907      66    1907

GSO Records
03/28       87    1907      62    1991
03/29       91    1907      61    1989

FAY Records
03/28       87    1945      65    1921
03/29       87    2012      65    1924

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Badgett
NEAR TERM...Badgett
SHORT TERM...Hartfield
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...Badgett
CLIMATE...RAH