National Weather Service National Headquarters

• Home
• Site Map
• News
• Organization
• Search for: NWS All NOAA 

-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS62 KRAH 160728
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
328 AM EDT Sun May 16 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
A series of weak upper level disturbances will move southeastward
over the region through Tuesday. A backdoor cold front will push
through the region Monday, then dissipate Tuesday. Otherwise,
high pressure will generally be in control for this week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 205 AM Sunday...

Plenty of mid and high cloudiness, little to no rain.

Mid and high cloudiness continued to develop and spread east from
the Blue Ridge to the Piedmont. Clouds will be on the increase from
the west overnight as upper level impulses, embedded in the westerly
flow aloft, overspread the area within a WAA regime aloft.
Additionally, an isolated shower and/or sprinkles will be possible
across the far NW Piedmont this morning.

The considerable cloud cover will be thickest today across the
northern counties and this will temper afternoon high
temperatures a bit (mid 70s). Partly sunny skies across southern
portions should result in highs close to the 30 year averages in the
lower 80s.

Rather extensive mid and high clouds are expected to linger tonight.
However, little to no support for showers. Lows will be in the mid
50s to near 60.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 305 AM Sunday...

A backdoor cold front is slated to push through our region Monday
and Monday evening, stalling just to our south by 12z/Tuesday.
Models agree in that there will be extensive cloudiness Monday and
Monday night. The surface winds will shift to the NE-E behind the
front and this will lead to cool air advection affecting
temperatures. Highs are apt to hold near 70 in the NE, but range to
near 80 near the NC/SC border. There is a slight chance of showers,
but any rainfall is expected to be light and scattered. In general,
only 0.01 to possibly 0.10 QPF Monday and Monday night. Lows Monday
night will be in the 50s north and east, with lower 60s SW.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 325 AM Sunday...

Medium range models continue to indicate mostly dry conditions for
next week, with only a very small chance for isolated convection at
the start of the period on Tuesday (best chance west).

Mid/upper level ridging will build over the area at the start of the
period, then stalling over the southeast U.S. through the remainder
of the period. However, the center of the ridge is forecast to
slowly shift a bit more westward by early next weekend. Regardless,
dry conditions are expected from mid to late week into next weekend,
with temps warming above normal for this time frame.

High temps are generally expected to warm from the 70s to low 80s on
Tuesday into the 80s to near/low 90s by late week into early next
weekend, with low temps generally expected to range from the mid 50s
to lower 60s during the period.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 205 AM Sunday...

High confidence in continued VFR conditions across central NC,
although mid/upper level VFR clouds will steadily increase
today. Only isolated sprinkles are expected.

Looking beyond 06z Mon, clouds will continue to increase through
Sun night, trending to bkn/ovc at all sites through Mon, although
VFR cigs should persist. Sub-VFR conditions are possible Mon night
into early Tue morning, and again Tue night into Wed morning, with a
chance of showers/storms Mon afternoon/Mon night mainly N
(GSO/INT/RDU/RWI) and Tue afternoon mainly at INT/GSO. VFR
conditions are then likely Wed/Thu with deep dry and warm air
building over the region. -GIH

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Badgett
NEAR TERM...Badgett
SHORT TERM...Badgett
LONG TERM...BSD
AVIATION...Badgett/Hartfield