Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 190730 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 330 AM EDT Wed Sep 19 2018 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will build in from the west today and settle over the region through the rest of the work week, bringing dry and unseasonably warm conditions. && .NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/... As of 240 AM Wednesday... The surface and mid level troughs are heading off the coast as high pressure builds in from the west. Deep subsidence and drying will take place today, ensuring plentiful sunshine as cloudiness now over extreme E sections departs, with only a few flat afternoon cu forming with heating. Thicknesses around 15 m above normal support highs in the mid-upper 80s with heating. Then this evening into tonight, cloudiness and convection now over N IL/OH extending NE over Lakes Erie/Ontario will drop SSE, reaching our N central and NE sections this evening. Any moisture with this should be rather shallow due to the mid level ridging, so expect no more than some cloudiness with perhaps an isolated light shower or two, and this will be reflected in the forecast with an uptick in clouds but with sub-14% pop. Lows mainly in the mid to upper 60s. -GIH && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... As of 315 AM Wednesday... This will overall be a continued quiet weather period with above normal temps. The core of the mid level ridge will drift from the Mid-South / Gulf states to a position over the Carolinas through Fri, before weakening in place Fri night. A narrow surface ridge centered well to our N will build in from the N and NE through early Fri, before it shifts eastward and become supplanted by lee troughing and a light SW flow. Clouds during this period should be limited to a few afternoon convective clouds, although a period of low level moist upglide Thu evening and night may bring partly to mostly cloudy skies over the W Piedmont. Above-normal thicknesses still favor highs in the mid to upper 80s and lows in the mid to upper 60s. -GIH && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 330 AM Wednesday... Saturday and Sunday: A cold front will approach from the northwest on Saturday and pre-frontal convection will move into the northern counties by Saturday afternoon/evening but areas south of US-64 could remain dry on Saturday. Not a lot of instability to work with according to forecast soundings so an isolated or scattered thunderstorm is possible across the north but otherwise general showers are expected. Light rain could linger into the overnight hours across the north as the front gradually tries to move southward. Still warm on Saturday with highs in the mid to upper 80s. Sunday the front will continue southward but likely stall out somewhere over the state. A little better chance for precipitation Sunday afternoon but again not much instability in the soundings. Also anticipating a high temperatures gradient somewhere across the area with low 80s across the north with mid 80s in the south. For early next week, surface high pressure developing over new England could cause a cold air damming event over the area which would be characterized by overcast skies and cooler temperatures with the chance for light rain, especially in the NW Piedmont to lock in the CAD. There is some model disagreement on this scenario however and while the ECMWF has the CAD locked in, the GFS is not confident in how far south the wedge front will get. If it does get into the area, high temperatures in the NW Piedmont could top out sub 80 degrees with again mid 80s across the southeastern counties. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 145 AM Wednesday... VFR conditions will dominate central NC terminals for the next 24 hours, as high pressure builds in from the west. RWI may see a couple of hours of MVFR fog early this morning during the 08z-13z time frame. Skies will be mostly clear, with just a few VFR clouds pushing into N/NE sections (RDU/RWI) toward the end of the forecast period. Looking beyond 06z Thu, a few VFR clouds and perhaps an isolated shower may pass near RDU/RWI 06z-12z. VFR conditions will remain dominant through Sun at all sites, although INT/GSO could see a period of MVFR/IFR conditions late Thu night into Fri morning as some low level moisture banks up against the higher terrain. We`ll also see the chance for typical scattered afternoon/evening storms increase by Sat/Sun. -GIH && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Hartfield NEAR TERM...Hartfield SHORT TERM...Hartfield LONG TERM...Ellis AVIATION...Hartfield

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