Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 281802 AFDRAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Raleigh NC 159 PM EDT Sat Mar 28 2020 .SYNOPSIS... A warm front over northeastern NC will move north into VA this afternoon. A strong high pressure aloft will extend over the state through the weekend, bringing an early season hot spell. A cold front will push southeast through the area Sunday night, bringing cooler temperatures Monday. Rain chances and cool temperatures increase by Tuesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 150 PM Saturday... ...Record heat for some locations this afternoon... The warm front over NE North Carolina is now lifting northward. It will be in southern VA this afternoon. The low level stratus that extended across the northern Piedmont including NE Forsyth, northern Guilford, northern Orange to Granville and Warren counties was finally dissolving as the SW flow and top down drying increase. All of our region will be in the warm sector this afternoon with mostly sunny skies and rapidly warming temperatures. Records will likely be challenged or broken at Fayetteville and Lumberton. Others may be challenged. The list of records is in the climate section below. Expect highs this afternoon of 85-90. Mostly clear skies will continue tonight beneath the building ridge aloft. Expect unseasonably warm lows in the 60s with a light SW breeze. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 159 PM Saturday... Near record warmth out ahead of the cold front Sunday afternoon... The main story Sunday will be the near record warmth. Expect mostly sunny skies in the east and south, with partly sunny skies north and west. WAA out ahead of the approaching cold front will aid temperatures to reach the mid 80s to near 90. The hottest readings will be in the Sandhills aided by the SW flow at 15-25 mph. The winds will slowly turn westerly as the pre-frontal trough pushes east into the western Piedmont during the mid to late afternoon. This will allow some lower dew points and drier air to flow off the Blue Ridge The main cold front will reach the region Sunday evening and push offshore late Sunday night. A pre-frontal surface trough is expected to form in the Foothills during the afternoon. There is very limited lift forecast as the main dynamics will pass well to our north. There will most likely be MLCapes increasing as the temperatures rise into the mid to upper 80s (near record heat for late March, combined with dew points in the lower to mid 60s (ample low level moisture, especially for late March). The wind shear will be increasing to between 35-40kt in the NW-N Piedmont. Even with MLCapes in the 1000-1500 J/Kg range and 35 to 40kt of bulk shear, the more significant height falls and large scale lift well north will most likely hinder convection initiation along the pre-frontal trough and/or cold front over central and eastern NC. We will keep only slight chances in the afternoon and early evening, mainly northwest and north. The cold front should push through the region on Sunday night. Winds will become westerly behind the front, but decrease to around 10 mph overnight. Lows Sunday night will slowly ease into the mid 50s NW to lower 60s SE with mostly clear skies. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 220 AM Saturday... Monday through Wednesday: A low pressure system will develop off the Rockies on Monday and swing through the Plains and MS Valley through Tuesday. This low will open as it lifts north through the OH Valley and into the mid-Atlantic, becoming absorbed into the larger scale low as a shortwave Tuesday night/Wednesday. The parent upper low will sit over the Northeast US/SE Canada as the shortwave moves through the region. The low will continue its eastward progression off the mid-Atlantic coast and over the Atlantic on Wednesday. Meanwhile, the surface low that develops in response to the upper low off the eastern Rockies on Monday will progress almost due east through the Plains and Southern MS Valley and into the TN Valley by Tuesday. Models continue to suggest that the preceding warm front will remain south of the area through Tuesday afternoon as high pressure tries to ridge southward into the region from Canada. As the surface low continues to push east Tuesday afternoon, the original low will split into two lows, one lifting northeast along the Appalachians and the second, which becomes the dominant low, swinging around the southern Appalachians and through the Southeast US. For now the low is expected to lift northeast through SC and eastern NC Tuesday eve/night while the warm front tries to lift into southern portions of NC. The temperature and precipitation will depend greatly on the track this low takes, but generally expect the highest, more convective rainfall amounts farther south and east with more stratiform precipitation falling on the cool side of the front. Likewise, temperatures should be highest south and east, lowest northwest. Generally expect above normal temperatures on Monday, decreasing through Tuesday night. Based on current timing, dry weather should return Wednesday night as the low lifts away from the region. Thursday and Friday: Dry weather and seasonable temperatures should persist through at least Friday night, however the medium-range models vary significantly and thus forecast confidence is low at this time. && .AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 130 AM Saturday... VFR conditions will be prevalent across much of central NC over the next 24 hours. Looking beyond 18z Sun, VFR conditions will dominate for the next few days, although there is a chance for brief MVFR conditions in an isolated storm near INT/GSO late Sun or Sun evening, ahead of a cold front that will move through Sun night. VFR conditions should hold through the first part of Tue, but an approaching storm system from the west will bring a good chance of sub-VFR conditions in rain Tue afternoon through Wed. && .CLIMATE... REC REC HI DAY MAX YR MIN YR RDU Records 03/28 91 1907 65 1907 03/29 94 1907 66 1907 GSO Records 03/28 87 1907 62 1991 03/29 91 1907 61 1989 FAY Records 03/28 87 1945 65 1921 03/29 87 2012 65 1924 && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Badgett NEAR TERM...Badgett SHORT TERM...Hartfield LONG TERM...KC AVIATION...Badgett CLIMATE...RAH

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