-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
609
FXUS62 KRAH 241424
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
925 AM EST Fri Jan 24 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Waves of low pressure will develop and track northeast and off the
coast of the Carolinas today. Otherwise, cold high pressure will
hold over the region, then shift to our south tonight into Saturday,
introducing a warming trend into early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 925 AM Friday...

The morning update required minimal changes. Going forecast is on
track. Previous discussion follows.


As of 200 AM Friday...

Aloft, the positively tilted trough to the west will become more
neutrally tilted and less amplified as it and its embedded s/w move
ewd from the MS Valley to offshore of the East Coast through
tonight. The trough should move over central NC this aft/eve. As the
trough moves ewd today, the 170 kt H25 jet will extend swwd over
central NC, then shift offshore late this eve as the trough moves
across the area. At the surface, the modified Arctic high, and
airmass characterized by surface dewpoints mostly in the teens, will
remain over the Carolinas today. A reinforcing Arctic cold front
will settle swd toward NC today, but even as the front/trough moves
into the area this aft/eve, the coldest air should remain north of
the NC/VA border as high pressure moving through the Deep South
builds nwd into the area tonight.

Dry weather will prevail. Slow clearing of the scattered/broken high
clouds from the NW may continue early this morning, however the
clearing may only make it to the I-95 corridor before the clouds
buckle nwwd again today as the trough approaches. With the passage
of the trough this aft/eve, expect some scattered/broken clouds in
the 7-10 kft layer. Generally expect highs today to range from
around 40 degrees to mid 40s. As the mid/upper trough moves away
from the area and surface high pressure builds in, skies will become
clear and winds calm to light. Expect good radiational cooling, and
with low-level thicknesses of roughly 1280-1290 meters, lows tonight
in the mid/upper teens to low 20s should prevail.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 245 AM Friday...

* Slightly warmer highs on Saturday. Lows on Saturday night will not
  be as cold as previous mornings but still below average.

A rather fast and dry westerly flow at mid and upper levels will
dominate the weather across the Carolinas on Saturday and Saturday
night. At the surface, chilly high pressure centered across the
Carolinas and VA on Saturday morning will shift south into GA and
north FL by Sunday morning resulting in a light southwesterly flow
across central NC. With the westerly flow, a dry profile and PW
values around or less than a quarter of an inch, dry weather and
clear skies are expected on Saturday with some increasing high
clouds on Saturday night. After what should be the last day of a
long stretch of morning lows in the teens, temperatures will warm
into the 40s with lower 40s near the VA border, the mid 40s in the
Triad and Triangle and the upper 40s near Fayetteville and the SC
border counties. Lows Saturday night will be moderated by the
increasing high clouds and light southerly wind with lows in the
lower to mid 20s. -Blaes

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 310 AM Friday...

* Warmer on Sunday with highs near average in the upper 40s to lower
  50s.
* A weak system will bring a limited threat of light rain, mainly
  across southern areas on Monday.
* A notable warm up is expected for for Tuesday and Wednesday with
  highs in the 50s and lower 60s which is 3 to 8 degrees above
  average.

A strong flow aloft continues on Sunday and backs to west-
southwesterly as a shearing upper level trough drops into the mid
Atlantic late Monday. An associated cold front drops across the
southern Appalachians and into the mid Atlantic late Sunday into
Monday. These features combined with a modest area of isentropic
lift across the Deep South on Sunday that shifts east into the
Southeast on Monday will result in increasing cloudiness on Sunday
and the threat of some light rain on Monday. NWP guidance is
trending dryer with the GFS ensemble a little more moist than the EC
ensemble. Overall NWP trends are heading downward with rain chances
and amounts. In addition, the threat of precipitation appears to
arrive around and especially after daybreak on Monday just as temps
rise above freezing so have opted to keep the forecast all liquid
for now. Later shifts will need to monitor this but at this point
the potential for any ptype other than rain is decreasing and is
very limited. Highs on Sunday will moderate to near average and
range in the upper 40s to lower 50s. Lows on Sunday night will
mainly range in the lower 30s with temperatures rising a bit toward
daybreak. Have included slight chance to low chance PoPs across the
southern half of the area on Thursday with dry weather but mostly
cloudy skies expected from U.S. route 64 northward with the best
chance of rain from mid morning through mid afternoon. Highs on
Monday should again range near average in the upper 40s to lower 50s.

A westerly flow aloft and a southwesterly flow at low levels will
support a modifying airmass and a notable warmup for Tuesday and
Wednesday. The warm advection pattern will support some afternoon
wind gusts of 20 mph or so both days. Bright sunshine is expected on
Tuesday with highs mainly in the mid 50s to around 60 although some
spots near the VA border may be a little cooler in the lower 50s.
Lows Tuesday night will range around or just above freezing with
highs on Wednesday in the mid 50s to around 60.

Forecast details become murkier late Wednesday into Thursday as
northern stream troughiness may bring some unsettled weather and a
chance of rain to the area late Wednesday into Thursday. There`s
lots of spread in the guidance in terms of the pattern and sensible
weather details. The best but limited chance of precipitation is on
on Thursday when we`ve included a slight chance of rain. The
temperature forecast for Thursday is also challenging and uncertain
but will go with highs in the upper 40s across the north to the
upper 50s in the south. -Blaes

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 625 AM Friday...

24 hour TAF period: High confidence VFR conditions will prevail
through the TAF period. High clouds may linger near KFAY and KRWI
throughout the day, clearing this eve/tonight. Calm winds this
morning should increase to around 5-10 kts around midday, highest at
KINT, KGSO, and possibly KRDU where gusts of 16-20 kts will be
possible. Gusts abate after sunset, with winds becoming increasingly
light/calm through daybreak Sat.

Outlook: VFR conditions and dry weather should prevail through Sun,
possibly even through Mon. There is a chance for some precipitation
and sub-VFR conditions Mon/Mon night, mainly across the south
(KFAY), but confidence remains low wrt the precipitation at this
time.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Hartfield
NEAR TERM...Green/KC
SHORT TERM...Blaes
LONG TERM...Blaes
AVIATION...KC