-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
713
FXUS62 KRAH 031019
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
618 AM EDT Thu Jul 3 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A surface cold front will slowly track south and east across the
region, stalling out across portions of eastern North Carolina. High
pressure will build over the region through Saturday. An area of low
pressure off the southeast coast could move into the area Sunday,
bringing a return to wet weather Sunday into early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 145 AM Thursday...

Surface analysis reveals that the cold front is still situated to
the NW of central NC. The high clouds have cleared out at all but
the far eastern part of NC. As a result, given the widespread rain
that occurred along and east of US-1, low stratus and fog have
broken out over the east and northeast Piedmont and portions of the
Sandhills to the northern Coastal Plain. If observational trends
continue, a Dense Fog Advisory may be issued for areas along and
east of US-1.

Any of the low stratus and fog is expected to lift by 8-9 am. The
surface cold front is forecast in the guidance to move south and
east of the area this afternoon and evening, though confidence on
that happening is not too high given this is the time of year for it
to stall or die out over the area. The low-levels and mid-levels,
however, are more northwesterly, with all but a weak shear axis
noted at 500 mb. The axis could touch off some very isolated storms
nearly anywhere today, but confidence on where is fairly low, with
the best chance along the Sandhills to southern Coastal Plain along
the stalled front or sea-breeze. Conditions will be warm and muggy
in the upper 80s to low 90s with dewpoints largely in the 70s. One
exception is the Triad, which could see dewpoints drop into the mid
60s. Tonight, any isolated storms should quickly die off after
sunset, with lows upper 60s to low 70s. Some patchy fog is again
possible, mainly for areas along/east of I-95.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 145 AM Thursday...

High pressure ridging at mid-levels and at the surface will build
overhead on Fri. The best chance of any isolated storms will be
along the far southern Coastal Plain in conjunction with any sea-
breeze or the stalled frontal boundary. Although highs will stay
warm in the lower 90s, it appears dewpoints will mix out to the mid
to upper 60s with NE flow as the surface high builds down from the
lower Great Lakes region. Low temperatures will be a touch lower,
ranging from the mid 60s to around 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 240 AM Thursday...

* Mainly dry with much below climatology rain chances on
  Saturday with near normal temperatures.
* Watching a possible surface low developing near the FL/GA coast
  late Saturday and Sunday that may drift near the Carolina coast
  late Sunday or Monday. Main impact for central NC will be
  increased rain chances across southeastern areas for Sunday and
  Monday.
* Otherwise, temperatures, humidity and chances of mainly afternoon
  and evening storms increase for Sunday and especially
  Monday through Wednesday.

Saturday will be the best weather day of the weekend and the long
term as weak mid and upper level ridging aloft will be extending
into the region from the west with a mid level trough located just
off the coast. At the surface, high pressure centered over New
England will extend into the region with weak surface trough/coastal
front developing across the coastal Carolinas. An isolated storm or
two could develop along the boundary during the afternoon or evening
and move toward the southern Coastal Plain and Sandills. Coverage
should be very limited in these locations. Otherwise, a cooler and
less humid air mass in place across most of central NC should result
in mainly dry conditions and a pleasant summer day with highs from
85 to 90 and lows Saturday night mainly between 65 and 72.

Will be watching the potential for a surface low developing near the
FL/GA coast late Saturday and Sunday that will potentially drift
north and near the Carolina coast late Sunday into Monday. Most of
the EC and GFS ensemble members show only limited if any
organization of the surface low while both the 00Z operational GFS
and EC show a 1012mb surface low organizing and moving near the
SC/NC coast. The overall pattern suggests that precipitation would
be skewed near and right of the low track which will keep most of
the showers and storms focused across the Coastal Plain eastward but
have increased PoPs and cloud cover for Sunday into Monday. Given
the modest low pressure area, dont expect any wind issues but the
inland penetration of the attendant coastal trough could introduce a
risk of locally heavy rain and a stronger storm across eastern
areas. Otherwise, expect highs in the upper 80s to near 90 on Sunday
and Monday but these highs may need to be adjusted downward if more
widespread clouds and precipitation is expected.

A return to increase heat, humidity and a risk of mainly afternoon
and evening showers and storms arrives for Tuesday and Wednesday
with increasing heights, thicknesses and surface dew points. In
addition, a northern stream mid-elevel trough drops out of the Great
Lakes toward midweek supporting greater storm coverage and with a
stronger mid level flow, perhaps an uptick in storm structure. Highs
on Tuesday and Wednesday climb into the lower 90s in most locations
with afternoon heat index values peaking between 95 and 100.
-Blaes
&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 618 AM Thursday...

Areas of stratus and fog have developed across central NC. The fog
has been mainly confined to RDU, with only stratus at FAY/RWI.
Cannot rule out some brief patchy fog at FAY/RWI, but confidence is
low at this time to include it in the 12z TAF issuance. Fog/stratus
in the eastern sites should lift by 13-14z, with VFR expected at all
terminals through the remainder of the period. Cannot rule out a
stray isolated shower/storm today, as well as some patchy fog at
FAY/RWI Fri morning. However, confidence is too low to mention at
this time given a lack of model agreement.

After 12Z Friday: Predominantly VFR conditions are expected through
Sat, with a return to diurnally maximized showers/storms Sun into
early next week with a possible low pressure system.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Kren
NEAR TERM...Kren
SHORT TERM...Kren
LONG TERM...Blaes
AVIATION...Kren/Swiggett