Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 312349 AFDRAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Raleigh NC 745 PM EDT Tue Mar 31 2020 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure will track across South Carolina and off the Outer Banks this afternoon and tonight, bringing rain to all locations tonight. While a shower may linger into Wednesday, high pressure moving into the region should keep the weather dry through at least Saturday night. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 245 PM Tuesday... As of 2pm, surface low pressure was over central Georgia, with an upper trough centered over Ohio extending south to the Gulf Coast pushing east. The surface low will be just off the Wilmington coast this evening and will move east of the Outer Banks by Wednesday morning. The primary rain shield with the surface low extends north from Georgia into South Carolina, North Carolina, and Virginia. This will overspread the entire region this afternoon into early this evening. There may be a brief lull in rain before a second round of rain moves through, this round from the upper trough. Added a slight chance of thunderstorms to the forecast this evening in southeastern counties due to marginal elevated instability. However, any severe weather threat is expected to stay well south. Rainfall totals have come down slightly with the latest model guidance, but half an inch in the southwest to an inch in the northeast is still a good estimate. Lows will fall into the 40s at all locations. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 PM Tuesday... By Wednesday morning the bulk of rainfall should have moved offshore. However, a deformation zone will remain across central North Carolina and western Virginia, which could produce a brief shower early in the morning. In addition, there could be a straggling shower along the western edge of the rain shield across eastern counties. The chance of rain should come to an end by early afternoon, with skies partly clearing by early afternoon. A stiff northerly wind will keep highs in the 50s in all locations. Wednesday night lows will be similar to tonight`s, in the 40s. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 300 PM Tuesday... High pressure will extend across the eastern United States for the rest of the work week into the weekend, keeping the weather dry. Low pressure will move from the eastern Great Lakes on Sunday north of Maine, with a front extending all the way south to the Gulf Coast. With the low so far to the north, the dynamics will be much weaker along the front across the Carolinas. Only have a slight chance of showers across the Triad on Sunday, then a slight chance in all locations Sunday night and Monday. Next, low pressure will develop in the central Plains and extend a warm front east into the Carolinas. The warm front will extend over the Atlantic Ocean, allowing the ocean to serve as a good moisture source. Have continued with chance pops Monday night and Tuesday. Temperatures will warm slightly each day through the period. Highs on Thursday will be in the 60s, rising into the 70s by Monday. Lows in the 40s Thursday night and Friday night will rise into the 50s by Sunday night. && .AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 745 PM Tuesday... An area of low pressure crossing the Southeast US will deepen off the Carolina coast tonight and the move off to the northeast on Wednesday. A large area of light rain across the eastern half of NC is falling out of mostly VFR ceilings, with some patches of MVFR around FAY and RWI. More widespread MVFR is approaching from the west as a wrap-around rain band pivots into the Piedmont. Expect rain to expand and intensify a bit between 00-04Z tonight, with ceilings lowering from MVFR/VFR to IFR at most sites. northerly winds may gust to 15-20kt as the coastal low deepens, then turn to northwesterly behind the low and begin to scour low-level moisture from west to east after 09Z. Confidence in when VFR returns is below average given the uncertainty in the initial development of IFR, but all sites should be VFR by 18Z Wednesday at the latest. Looking ahead: VFR conditions are expected to prevail for the remainder of the week and into the weekend. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Green NEAR TERM...Green SHORT TERM...Green LONG TERM...Green AVIATION...bls

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