000
FXUS65 KREV 082129
AFDREV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
129 PM PST Fri Dec 8 2023

.SYNOPSIS...

A rather quiet weather pattern is on tap this weekend into next week
with seasonably cool conditions and only low end precipitation
chances near the Oregon border. There are signals for a winter storm
to potentially impact the region around the Dec 16-18 time frame.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

* A cool and dry start to the weekend with temperatures near to
  below normal. A ridge overhead and plenty of cold air at the
  surface will keep inversions in place. Anticipate freezing fog
  formation overnight into the morning hours in the Sierra and
  Martis Valleys. Surface winds will generally be light and north to
  northeasterly.

* The next item of interest will be a passing shortwave late
  Sunday into Monday, which brings a 15-25% chance for light
  showers near the Oregon border per blended guidance. This will
  also bring an increase in winds aloft and should help to mix out
  inversions, leading to high temps 4-8 degrees above normal on
  Sunday. A secondary wave follows right behind, pushing a dry
  backdoor front into the region. This brings the return of near
  normal temps with northeast to east breezes aloft.

* And now for what many of you are waiting for...a chance at a
  winter storm. Ensemble cluster analysis all indicate a deep area
  of low pressure off the CA coast around the Dec 16-17 time
  frame. The question at this point is where the low moves inland,
  with roughly 60% of ensemble members currently in a favorable
  location for wet weather into the Sierra and potentially western
  Nevada as well. Both the EPS and GEFS IVT probabilities are
  increasing between 35-40N, which is a good sign, but again,
  it`s all how the system moves in and the subsequent trajectory
  of the moisture. For now, plan on winds increasing going into
  the following weekend and the potential for winter travel,
  especially in the Sierra. Stay tuned for updates! -Dawn

&&

.AVIATION...

* Lighter winds and dry conditions will be in place for the
  remainder of the weekend. Freezing fog has an 85% chance of
  forming the next several nights at KTRK between 08z-18z.

* Generally NW-N flow aloft with FL100 wind speeds around 15-20 kts.
  Winds to become more W-NW aloft on Sunday, increasing in speed,
  especially near the Oregon border. A few light showers are also
  possible near the Oregon border Sunday-Monday, a 15-25% chance.
  Clouds associated with these showers are likely to obscure
  terrain. -Dawn

&&

.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...None.
CA...None.
&&

$$