550
FXUS65 KREV 142129
AFDREV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
129 PM PST Tue Jan 14 2025

.SYNOPSIS...

* Lighter winds and valley inversions will settle in the next
  couple of days, bringing milder afternoons, but chilly nights.

* A cold front will bring back periods of gusty northeast ridge
  winds and more cold air this weekend into early next week. Right
  now, it looks dry.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

* If you like the current weather, you are in luck. No significant
  changes to the pattern are in store the remainder of this week.
  High pressure will bring warming to mountain tops and elevations
  generally above 7000-8000 feet while the warmup will be a bit
  more subdued in the valleys due to inversions. Breezy east ridge
  winds with gusts 35-45 mph will persist overnight into early Wed
  AM for the Sierra ridges, but then continue to weaken as high
  pressure aloft builds across northern CA and the northern Great
  Basin.

* Guidance shows another trough dropping down through the Rockies
  with latest models weaker with the initial frontal surge into
  western NV Fri-Sat as they begin to resolve another shortwave
  dropping southward on the mean trough`s backside Sun- Mon per
  about 40% of the ensemble clusters. A few of the individual
  models are quite robust with a westward carving of the trough
  into the western Great Basin, so definitely worth watching as it
  would bring another round of strong NE ridge winds and even a
  low-end chance for light snow showers along the eastern Sierra.
  We bumped up ridge winds above blended guidance with the early
  week trough.

* If you do not like the current pattern, then there is a glimpse
  of hope late month with the caveat our confidence is low at this
  point in time. Ensemble meteograms show quite a few scenarios
  with QPF and about 10% of them indicating a modest storm
  potential sometime after Jan 25th. AR tools are rather weak, so
  could be more systems dropping in from the north with a few far
  enough west to tap some Pacific moisture. We`ll see.

Hohmann

&&

.AVIATION...

* No significant impacts for the next 48-72-hr period. Breezy east
  winds will continue across the Sierra crest through 18Z Wed, but
  wind speeds at FL100 have come down quite a bit and will average
  15-20 kts. Lighter winds return Wednesday afternoon and persist
  through Thursday.

* VFR with a very dry airmass. Cannot rule out some freezing fog
  around KTRK by Thu-Fri AM underneath valley inversions.

Hohmann

&&

.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...None.
CA...None.
&&

$$