Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Reno, NV

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FXUS65 KREV 252235 CCA
AFDREV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
305 PM PDT Fri May 25 2018

.SYNOPSIS...

Thunderstorms with locally heavy rain and high elevation snow are
expected through this evening, with lighter precipitation
continuing through Saturday. Warmer and drier conditions will
return for the remainder of the holiday weekend, although a few
showers and thunderstorms remain possible.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

With the heavy rainfall over the last 24 hours, many locations
picked up nearly 1-2 inches of rainfall. The Reno Airport picked
up an additional 1.0" of rain in the last 24 hours, including
0.69" just from this morning. That pushes us into 3rd place for
the wettest spring on record for Reno! We have a total of 4.71" so
far this spring in Reno (March+April+May), only surpassed by 1907
(5.37") and 1995 (5.08"). Precipitation records for Reno go back
to 1893. Some mountains in the Sierra around Lake Tahoe above 8000
feet picked up several inches of snow this morning, including
around Mount Rose Highway where slushy snow accumulations led to
chain controls earlier this morning.

Showers and thunderstorms will continue through this afternoon
and evening, especially east of Highway 395 where the clearer air
has allowed for good heating and afternoon instability. Good shear
is expected over Mineral and southern Lyon County this afternoon
and evening, along with areas north of Gerlach and Lovelock. These
areas with the better instability and shear will be capable of
producing a few strong thunderstorms and potentially severe hail
and microburst winds through this evening. Earlier today, wind
gusts of 60mph were recorded over the Black Rock Playa RAWS.

With the precipitation focus shifting further north and east, we
have cancelled the Flood Watch for northeast CA and western
Nevada. We have also cancelled the Winter Weather Advisories for
the Sierra and Tahoe Basin. There is potential for light showers
for these areas through this evening, but the heaviest
precipitation is over and the impacts of flooding and winter
weather have been greatly reduced.

Low pressure will continue to move across Nevada bringing
additional showers through Saturday. Forcing will be weaker
tomorrow, with wrap around bands of clouds and rain moving in
through the day on Saturday. Widespread cloud cover and northwest
flow will make for a cool Saturday, but the good news is that any
rainfall we get will be much lighter than we`ve seen the last 24
hours.

.LONG TERM...Sunday onward...

Shower activity will wane Sunday as the low exits to the east, with
the best chances in eastern Nevada. Warmer and drier conditions
will start the week with high temperatures likely reaching into
the 80s for western Nevada valleys and 70s for Sierra valleys.
Models continue to try and produce convection over the central and
southern Sierra each afternoon, especially on Tuesday. Given the
differential heating and remnant moisture, this is possible and
will maintain low end chances.

Another trough approaches the region by midweek, bringing increased
breezes on Wednesday and renewed chances for showers and
thunderstorms. Lingering instability may help to pop a few more
showers and weak thunderstorms Thursday into Friday with
temperatures near normal. The large scale pattern would suggest
additional troughs possible along the west coast through the start
of June. -Dawn

&&

.AVIATION...

The main area for thunderstorms has shifted off into west-central
and central Nevada, generally east of a KYER-KLOL-KWMC line. West of
that line instability has diminished significantly, with a few
showers or areas of light rain (northeast California) all that has
been noted lately. Still, a few weak thunderstorms with brief
moderate rainfall and terrain obscuration cannot be ruled out into
early evening around the Pine Nut and Virginia Ranges east of
KRNO/KCXP/KMEV.

Overnight into Saturday morning, the main areas for rain and higher
terrain obscuration will be east of Highway 95/Interstate 80 and
north of Susanville and Gerlach. Elsewhere, partly to mostly cloudy
skies are expected with generally VFR conditions.

Saturday afternoon, residual moisture and a trough of low pressure
over central Nevada could bring scattered showers. While isolated
thunderstorms remain possible, the best shot will be over central-
eastern NV and in the Sierra. Any storms should remain weak, with
hail less than 0.5" in diameter, occasional lightning, and wind
gusts under ~25 kts.

Outside of possible morning fog in the Martis Valley near KTRK,
conditions improve everywhere over northeast CA and western NV
Sunday and Monday/Memorial Day as high pressure builds overhead.
-Snyder

&&

.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...None.
CA...None.
&&

$$

For more information from the National Weather Service visit...
http://weather.gov/reno



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