145
FXUS65 KREV 192018
AFDREV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
118 PM PDT Thu Sep 19 2024

.SYNOPSIS...

* Showers and thunderstorms continue through this evening mainly
  for the Sierra south of Highway 50, with light snow for higher
  peaks.

* A drier weather pattern returns while temperatures warm up and
  remain near average from Friday through early next week.

* Dry conditions continue with further warming likely by the
  middle of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Many areas received wetting rainfall Wednesday afternoon-night,
with the highest totals of 0.60-1.10" around much of the Tahoe
basin, central-southern Lyon County, and southeast Douglas/far
northern Mono County from Topaz Lake to Walker River canyon.

For this afternoon-evening, we`ll see another another round of
scattered showers-thunderstorms mostly south of US-50, although a
few stray showers or light wrap-around rain bands could still
develop farther north to I-80 and Pyramid Lake through late
evening. The highest potential for wetting rainfall and lightning
is projected for Mono and Alpine counties, with additional precip
amounts generally between 0.10-0.30" and about 25-35% chance of
lightning. Most cells will move from east to west with more
coverage eventually west of the Sierra crest by late afternoon.
Additional snow will be confined to higher backcountry of Mono
County, but only from a dusting up to 2" in heavier showers above
9500-10000 feet, mainly on unpaved surfaces. As the upper low
responsible for this precip pushes away to the far southern CA
coast tonight, any leftover shower activity should end by
midnight.

From Friday through much of next week, a drier and warmer weather
pattern will prevail as high pressure initially off the west coast
pushes inland to the Great Basin by the middle of next week.
Temperatures will rebound to near 80 degrees for lower elevations
Friday and Saturday, with lower-mid 70s for Sierra communities.
Although the fall equinox arrives at 5:44 AM PDT this Sunday
morning, it will be remain warmer than recent days, with highs
holding near seasonal averages through early next week. By
midweek, further warming is anticipated as the high pressure ridge
progresses inland, with highs reaching the mid 80s for western NV
valleys and 75-80 for Sierra communities. Winds will generally be
light for the next several days, then a potential trough brushing
across the Pacific Northwest may bring increased afternoon SW
breezes by mid-late next week. Longer range guidance favors this
warm and dry pattern continuing through the remainder of
September. MJD

&&

.AVIATION...

* A 15-30% chance of showers and lightning are projected this
  afternoon mostly south of US-50 to include KMEV, KTVL and KMMH.
  A few stray showers may push as far north as I-80 this evening.
  KMMH has the better chance for a thunderstorm or two through
  the remainder of the afternoon and evening until 03Z.

* VFR conditions will persist from Friday into next week with the
  exception being areas of fog forming overnight in some Sierra
  valleys. Look for fog to return overnight to KTRK with periods
  of IFR/LIFR conditions between 07-17Z. FL100 and sfc winds will
  remain relatively light into the evening as well, although some
  light turbulence can`t be ruled out from brief gusts up to 25
  kt in and near thunderstorms.

-Amanda

&&

.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...None.
CA...Winter Weather Advisory until 8 PM PDT this evening CAZ073.

&&

$$