000
FXUS65 KREV 262242
AFDREV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
242 PM PST Wed Feb 26 2020

.SYNOPSIS...

High pressure remains in control for the rest of the work week
over western Nevada and the Sierra with dry conditions, light
winds, and above average high temperatures. Low pressure will
impact the region this weekend with gusty southwest winds and
chances for rain and snow. Drier weather with average temperatures
return for next week.


&&

.SHORT TERM...

Not much change to the forecast through Friday as this persistent
high pressure ridge continues to dominate the region. Clear skies,
light winds, and above average high temperatures are forecast for
the rest of this afternoon and Thursday.

By Friday, the ridge begins to flatten out and shift towards the
east making way for low pressure to drop from the north impacting
the region this weekend. Winds will be breezy for Friday afternoon
with increasing cloud cover as the low pressure progresses
southward. Friday`s high temperatures are forecast to be in the
upper 60s, close to 70 degrees across western Nevada and low to
mid 60s for the Sierra.

The low pressure trough with associated cold front drops into the
region for the weekend. Pre-frontal southwest winds increase in
intensity for Saturday afternoon and last through the evening
hours with peak gusts in the 25-35 mph range region-wide. Wind
prone areas such as the Hwy 395 corridor near the Honey Lake
Basin, Washoe Valley, and through Mono County as well as US-95
near Walker Lake can experience higher gusts during this time
period. The Sierra ridges could see gusts of 50-70 mph. Rough
conditions on Lake Tahoe and Pyramid Lake are expected. Temperatures
on Saturday will likely be above normal thanks to sufficient
mixing from the southwest flow, but not as warm as Friday.

Recent deterministic and ensemble guidance has the low pressure
trough dropping into the region Saturday night through early
Sunday morning. Most of the precipitation move through quickly,
following along the cold frontal boundary of the trough where the
most lift will take place. POPs have been increased for the
Sierra and western Nevada this forecast cycle due to higher
forecaster confidence in model guidance. For northeast California
and western Nevada, precipitation most likely will start out as
rain or a rain/snow mix before turning over to all snow post-
frontal as snow levels drop to all valley floors by early Sunday
morning. Snow showers look to linger throughout the day on Sunday
before moving out of the region entirely by early Monday morning
as the trough digs into southern California.

As for potential snow totals across the region, 6-10 inches along
the Sierra crest and 2-5 inches around the Tahoe Basin and Mono
County is possible by Monday morning. For western Nevada, around a
half an inch is forecast as of now, but there is a 20-30% chance
of higher totals in the 2-4 inch range depending on the amount of
atmospheric forcing and moisture available with most guidance
suggesting more of a `slider` type system. As stated previously,
most precipitation will fall on Sunday, but hazardous driving
conditions for the Sierra passes as well as area roadways around
the Reno-Carson City-Minden metro areas are likely to continue
into early Monday. Take extra precaution driving Sunday and Monday
as winter weather conditions have not been experienced in our
region for at least a few weeks now.

High temperatures are forecast to be in the upper 30s, low 40s on
Sunday with blustery post-frontal north winds. -LaGuardia


.LONG TERM...Next week...

Behind the strong cold front it will remain cool next week under
northwest flow. Ensembles are in good agreement with the weekend
system moving rapidly out of the area with another trough dropping
into the eastern Great Basin Tuesday night into Wednesday.

The main issue will be winds and they look gusty on the backside
Sunday night. Sierra Crest ridge gusts could approach or exceed 100
mph from near South Lake Tahoe through Mammoth. It is a good setup
for the gusty northeast winds, but it looks similar to the one at
the beginning of February, not the big one on the 9th-10th.

Short wave ridging will allow temps to moderate Monday and Tuesday
closer to average. Ensembles are in good agreement showing another
system dropping into the Great Basin late Tuesday into Wednesday.
Right now, the probabilities are quite low for any precip in western
Nevada. However, it does look to reinforce the cold air a bit. For
now, temperatures are held steady as it could be more of a glancing
blow, but there is a 30-40% chance it will be a good 5-10 degrees
colder than currently advertised for Wednesday. After that, it does
look like a warmup is in store into next weekend. X

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions through Friday with light winds. Ridge winds increase
Friday night into Saturday with gusty winds areawide Saturday. Local
LLWS and mtn wave turbulence will occur with these winds. The cold
front still looks on track for Saturday night into Sunday morning. A
2-3 hr period of MVFR/IFR conditions are possible in -SN focused
from I-80 southward. X

&&

.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...None.
CA...None.
&&

$$

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