Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Reno, NV

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FXUS65 KREV 262344 CCA
AFDREV

Area Forecast Discussion...Corrected
National Weather Service Reno NV
305 PM PDT Tue Mar 26 2019

.SYNOPSIS...

The main storm of the week will bring gusty winds, heavy mountain
snow, and periods of valley rain, with the greatest impacts to
travel in the Sierra and western Nevada late tonight through
Wednesday. Lighter snow showers will continue into Thursday,
followed by drier and warmer conditions returning by the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

Main changes to the current forecast were issuing a Wind Advisory
for Mineral/S Lyon counties for Wednesday afternoon-evening, along
with adding a slight chance of thunder for Thursday afternoon-
early evening north of Susanville-Lovelock.

While some light showers will move across the region through this
evening, we`ll still be waiting until late tonight for more
substantial rain and snow, when the main storm of the week begins
to impact the Sierra and western NV. This surge of enhanced
moisture will continue through Wednesday morning, when the
greatest travel impacts over the Sierra are expected. There may be
a short period of reduced precip intensity around midday, then
conditions become worse again from mid-afternoon into the early
evening, as convective activity over central CA leads to bands of
heavier snow and rain spreading across the Sierra and into parts
of western NV. Additional fast-moving rain showers with embedded
thunder could also develop over parts of northwest and west
central NV mainly north of Fallon Wednesday afternoon, and linger
as a steady rain area east of US-95 into the evening.

Forecast snow amounts remain largely unchanged with the greatest
accumulations and impacts above 7000 feet for the Sierra (1-2
feet), and above 5500-6000 feet for northeast CA (8-16 inches).
Below these elevations, the amount of accumulating snow drops off
sharply due to the higher late March sun angles.

For western NV, periods of spillover precipitation are most likely
Wednesday morning and again by late afternoon. Rainfall totals
will likely range from 0.2-0.5" for the Reno-Carson-Minden areas.
While much of west central NV is likely to receive lighter rain
amounts less than 0.2", periods of locally heavier rainfall are
possible near and east of US-95 Wednesday evening due to enhanced
lift within the upper jet`s left exit region while the surface
cold front also passes through. Snow levels could drop by early
evening to 5000-5500 feet in western NV, however little or no
accumulation is expected.

Winds will increase again on Wednesday, with a short period of
enhanced gusts (up to 50 mph) possible across far western NV
during the afternoon. However, the best wind potential is
anticipated for Mineral-southern Lyon counties due to the
combination of precip shadowing and the upper jet being positioned
overhead during the afternoon and into the evening. This area
will have a wind advisory in effect with the potential for gusts
around 65 mph along wind prone areas of US-95 such as near Walker
Lake.

After a break in most shower activity late Wednesday into Thursday
morning, additional showers are likely to develop Thursday
afternoon-evening as a shortwave trough rotates through northern
CA. Areas in eastern CA from Tahoe northward, and western NV from
I-80 northward will have the best chance for spotty light snow
accumulations (generally 1" or less) above 5000 feet, with snow
pellets or a rain/snow mix below 5000 feet. With some instability
in place, a few cells could produce isolated lightning strikes
mainly from Susanville-Lovelock northward. Most of this shower
activity should diminish by late Thursday evening. Brisk and
chilly conditions will prevail with highs mainly in the 40s to
lower 50s. MJD

.LONG TERM...Friday through Tuesday...

Most, if not all, of the precipitation activity should be pretty
much wrapped up going into Friday. Ridging is expected to build
into the region for the start of the weekend with clearing skies
and warming temperatures.

A weak upper level trough is forecast to brush by the region
around the Sunday night time frame, which could bring additional
light rain showers to the region through Tuesday. Snow levels are
expected to stay relatively high, likely in the 7500-8000 foot
range, and overall QPF is expected to be very low. So, a little
unsettled weather to start the week, but no significant impacts
expected.

Temperatures Sunday into early next week should be right around
average for this time of year with lower 60s in western Nevada
and lower 50s in the lower elevations of the Sierra.

As ridging builds over the west this weekend, a stronger high
pressure anomaly is forecast to build over Alaska. A low pressure
anomaly is forecast to build under the Alaska high pressure off
the U.S. west coast. There is good ensemble agreement in this
pattern going into early April with the storm track into the
Sierra likely remaining active. Current atmospheric river forecast
tools show moisture moving back into the west coast around the end
of next week, but currently forecast the bulk of the moisture
moving into the Pacific Northwest. -Zach

&&

.AVIATION...

Current ridgetop winds are gusting 40-65 knots with surface gusts
up to 25 knots and a few very light rain showers around the
region. Increasing storm impacts are expected tonight through
Wednesday afternoon with gusty winds, mountain snow and valley
rain.

Ridgetop wind gusts are forecast to increase to around 80-90
knots tonight with moderate turbulence and the possibility of
pockets of severe turbulence. Widespread surface gusts of 30-40
knots are expected on Wednesday, especially in west-central
Nevada.

Precipitation is forecast to begin to spread into the Sierra
around midnight with the heaviest precipitation forecast
Wednesday morning through Wednesday evening. The best chance for
snow accumulation at Sierra terminals will be Wednesday evening
as colder air moves into the region with up to 1-3 inches
possible. During the heavier bands of precipitation, visibility
will likely be reduced to 3-5 miles for Sierra terminals with
brief periods of reduced visibility possible for KRNO/KCXP. There
is also the possibility of thunderstorms in western Nevada during
the day on Wednesday, though storms are not expected to be
widespread. -Zach

&&

.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...Winter Storm Warning from 11 PM this evening to 11 PM PDT
     Wednesday above 7000 feet in NVZ002.

     Lake Wind Advisory until 11 PM PDT Wednesday for Lake Tahoe in
     NVZ002.

     Wind Advisory from 2 PM to 11 PM PDT Wednesday NVZ001.

     Lake Wind Advisory from 11 AM to 11 PM PDT Wednesday for Pyramid
     Lake in NVZ004.

CA...Winter Storm Warning from 11 PM this evening to 11 PM PDT
     Wednesday above 5500 feet in CAZ071.

     Winter Storm Warning from 11 PM this evening to 11 PM PDT
     Wednesday above 7000 feet in CAZ072-073.

     Lake Wind Advisory until 11 PM PDT Wednesday for Lake Tahoe in
     CAZ072.

&&

$$

For more information from the National Weather Service visit...
http://weather.gov/reno


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