Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 181005 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Charleston WV 605 AM EDT Wed May 18 2022 .SYNOPSIS... Dry weather this morning. A warm front combines with an upper air disturbance for this afternoon and tonight. Hot weather Friday. A cold front crosses late Saturday night and Sunday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 320 AM Wednesday... Dry weather will continue this morning although clouds from a warm front can be expected over much of the area. This front will combine with an upper level disturbance to produce showers and thunderstorms for this afternoon and evening. Although there is a low level jet providing some decent low level winds, CAPES are not impressive. Therefore, any severe weather is expected to be isolated at best. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... As of 420 AM Wednesday... A short wave trough exiting first thing Thursday morning leaves a front stalled across far southern portions, or just south, of the forecast area, while weak high pressure crosses the forecast area during the day Thursday. The last of a convective complex likely to be associated with the short wave overnight should be exiting to the south and east first thing Thursday morning, followed by clearing at least across northern portions of the forecast area, and at least breaks farther south developing Thursday afternoon. Variability in model guidance on the position of the front, and associated instability along and south of it, allow for marginal threats for severe thunderstorms and excessive rainfall for far southern portions of the forecast area, as depicted by SPC and WPC, respectively. The excessive rainfall threat could be enhanced by training ongoing from overnight Wednesday night. A weak short wave trough lifting through the area Thursday night, as mid/upper level flow backs, along the the front pushing northeastward through the area, allow for the low chance of showers and thunderstorms moving northeastward through the area. While moisture, shear and modest instability could support a marginal severe threat, lower area coverage and a more progressive set up should limit areal and time duration of the threat, and all but preclude an excessive rainfall threat. Deep layer southwest flow, ridging to the southeast of the forecast area, and the next cold front not arriving until Sunday, should result in mainly dry weather Friday and Friday night, with a hot afternoon and warm night on tap. Continued to lean toward the higher end of the guidance envelop for highs Friday. Otherwise central guidance temperatures and dew points looked reasonable. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 420 AM Wednesday... Models continue converging on slower timing of a cold front crossing the area this weekend, with current timing falling a little late for a severe threat on Saturday but still too soon for a severe threat on Sunday. This should limit rainfall intensity in what should be a progressive set up, but brief localized high water issues cannot be entirely ruled out. Timing changes and associated implications for severe and localized water threats Saturday or Sunday bear watching in future packages. The early part of the new work week should turn out mostly dry, although the front to the south and east may still be close enough for the shower chance Monday. The next short wave trough and frontal system may bring showers and thunderstorms back into the area heading into the middle of next week. Central guidance reflects another hot day Saturday well ahead of the next cold front, and then temperatures typical of mid to late spring for the early portion of the new week. && .AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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As of 605 AM Wednesday... VFR conditions can be expected this morning. A warm front will combine with an upper level disturbance to provide showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Generally VFR conditions will exist outside of the showers and thunderstorms this afternoon. Ceilings will lower to MVFR tonight over much of the area, although southern West Virginia and southwestern Virginia could stay VFR outside of the precipitation. Lower restrictions can be expected in the showers and thunderstorms. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing and intensity of showers and thunderstorms could vary. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 EDT 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 12Z THURSDAY... Brief IFR possible in showers and thunderstorms Thursday morning, and then again Saturday night into Sunday.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RPY/TRM NEAR TERM...RPY SHORT TERM...TRM LONG TERM...TRM AVIATION...RPY

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