Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 060109 AAA AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED National Weather Service Charleston WV 809 PM EST Fri Mar 5 2021 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure in the area through the middle of next week. Next frontal system late next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 808 PM Friday... Only change of significance was to bump min temps for tonight downward a few degrees for elevations above 3kft. Otherwise, forecast remains on track with quiet and cold conditions expected. As of 457 PM Friday... Have increased cloud cover quite a bit for late this afternoon and into the evening hours for the southern third of the CWA. Rather dense mid/upper level cloud shield is rapidly spreading into the region with guidance indicating it will likely persist for much of the evening. As of 120 PM Friday... Surface high pressure continues in control through tonight providing mostly clear skies and light and variable wind. With cold airmass in place and the expected cooling could bring tonight`s temperatures into the lower 20s lowlands, ranging into the mid teens higher elevations. Breezy conditions could return this afternoon but will will depend on how much wind can be mixed out by the lower atmosphere through the evening. Then, expect lower atmosphere to decouple for winds to become calm. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... As of 115 PM Friday... Surface high pressure continues to hold over the area as upper level ridging moves in from the west. This will allow skies to remain mostly clear and for dry, quiet weather to continue for the area through the short term period. Saturday and Sunday night will both be cool with lows in the low to mid 20s for the lowlands and upper teens to lower 20s in the mountains. Sunday will continue to be on the chilly side with temperatures in the low to mid 40s for the lowlands and upper 20s to 30s for the higher elevations. Temperatures will warm up into Monday as flow transitions to become more southerly/southwesterly with much of the area getting into the 50s. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 1220 PM Friday... High pressure and upper level ridging continue to remain in control Tuesday and Wednesday as dry weather persists through the middle of the week. Southerly flow will allow temperatures to gradually increase throughout the week, warming up into the mid to upper 60s for much of the area by the second half of the week. The next chance for precipitation moves in for the latter half of next week as a system approaches from the west, pushing the high pressure out of the area. The models show a surface low from the southwest approach the Great Lakes and continue to move off to the northeast, staying to the north of the area. A cold front associated with the low gradually approaches the area through the week. The models have a generally similar path with this system, but do differ on timing a bit. The ECMWF brings a wave of moisture to the northern half of the area ahead of the system late Wednesday night while the Canadian and GFS continue to keep the area dry. The Canadian and GFS then bring the front through Friday with the ECMWF lagging slightly behind, bringing it through Friday night. Overall, have kept in chances of precipitation for the area for the end of the period. && .AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 606 PM Friday... VFR through the 00z TAF period. Some dense mid/upper level cloudiness may spread across the southern half of WV and adjacent VA/KY, but no llvl cloudiness or associated aviation weather impacts are expected at this time. NWrly sfc winds should fall to 5 kts or less overnight, eventually becoming brisk and occasionally gusty from the NW again Sat midday/afternoon. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: None. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE SAT UTC 1HRLY 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 EST 1HRLY 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 00Z SUNDAY... No widespread IFR conditions expected at this time. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ARJ/CG NEAR TERM...RH/ARJ SHORT TERM...CG LONG TERM...CG AVIATION...RH

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