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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KRLX 051311
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
911 AM EDT Mon Jun 5 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
Afternoon mountain showers/storms possible today. A moisture
starved cold front Tuesday, followed by an upper level
disturbance Wednesday. High pressure Thursday into the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 910 AM Monday...
No changes were necessary.

As of 220 AM Monday...

Slightly cooler day expected today with the lowlands likely
struggling to hit the 80 degree mark during peak heating.
Slightly lower temperatures anticipated across the higher
terrain and the mountains with mid 60s to mid 70s expected.
Dewpoints will be on the decline along with the temperatures
therefore expect to feel very comfortable today and tonight as
drier air from the upper levels mixes down. With a cold front
to our south and a surface low some clouds will be observed
across the area by this afternoon, buy they will mainly be mid
to high clouds. Some lower clouds may be observed along the
mountains and south of Beckley where that low feature is suppose
to traverse nearby. Outside that, a relatively quiet weather
day with light northeasterly flow and sunny skies for most of
the day. There are some slight chances for a shower and/or
thunderstorm to develop near that aforementioned low during the
afternoon and into the evening, but probability is low at this
time. Generally, any activity should be confined to the
mountains and southeast of our area.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 AM Monday...

A moisture starved cold front will push southward through the
area Tuesday and Tuesday night. Precipitation will be limited,
but some models do indicate some possible showers. An upper
level disturbance will then interact with the front on Wednesday
and provide a chance for showers and thunderstorms for much of
the area, with the best chances over southern West Virginia and
southwest Virginia. Cooler air behind the front will provide for
temperatures below normal for this time of year Wednesday and
Wednesday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 300 AM Monday...

A high pressure system will build over the area on Thursday,
slowly shifting eastward into the weekend. This will provide dry
weather with below normal temperatures Thursday and Friday, with
temperatures warming some for the weekend. Another cold front
will effect the area late in the weekend or early next week,
providing chances of showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 630 AM Monday...

North-northeasterly flow should start to pick up and scour out
that valley fog we have within the next hour or so. BKW is
dealing with low stratus currently, which should lift by late
morning. Other sites such as CRW/EKN are dealing with fog which
will burn off soon. By the early afternoon all sites should
become VFR under mostly clear skies with some mid to high clouds
rolling through during the afternoon. Smoke from up north may
cause the sky to look hazy today, but no restrictions to VIS
are expected. A low, forecast to be south of us by the
afternoon, could push some more low clouds and/or a rain shower
into BKW during the daytime, but probability is not high enough
at this time to place mention into TAFs.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: None.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23
EDT 1HRLY       08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19
CRW CONSISTENCY  L    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    L    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z TUESDAY...
No widespread IFR conditions are anticipated.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RPY/JZ
NEAR TERM...SL/JZ
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...JZ