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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KRLX 181005
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
605 AM EDT Wed May 18 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry weather this morning. A warm front combines with an upper
air disturbance for this afternoon and tonight. Hot weather
Friday. A cold front crosses late Saturday night and Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 320 AM Wednesday...

Dry weather will continue this morning although clouds from a
warm front can be expected over much of the area. This front
will combine with an upper level disturbance to produce showers
and thunderstorms for this afternoon and evening. Although there
is a low level jet providing some decent low level winds, CAPES
are not impressive. Therefore, any severe weather is expected to
be isolated at best.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 420 AM Wednesday...

A short wave trough exiting first thing Thursday morning leaves
a front stalled across far southern portions, or just south, of
the forecast area, while weak high pressure crosses the
forecast area during the day Thursday.

The last of a convective complex likely to be associated with
the short wave overnight should be exiting to the south and east
first thing Thursday morning, followed by clearing at least
across northern portions of the forecast area, and at least
breaks farther south developing Thursday afternoon.

Variability in model guidance on the position of the front, and
associated instability along and south of it, allow for marginal
threats for severe thunderstorms and excessive rainfall for far
southern portions of the forecast area, as depicted by SPC and
WPC, respectively. The excessive rainfall threat could be
enhanced by training ongoing from overnight Wednesday night.

A weak short wave trough lifting through the area Thursday
night, as mid/upper level flow backs, along the the front
pushing northeastward through the area, allow for the low
chance of showers and thunderstorms moving northeastward through
the area. While moisture, shear and modest instability could
support a marginal severe threat, lower area coverage and a more
progressive set up should limit areal and time duration of the
threat, and all but preclude an excessive rainfall threat.

Deep layer southwest flow, ridging to the southeast of the
forecast area, and the next cold front not arriving until
Sunday, should result in mainly dry weather Friday and Friday
night, with a hot afternoon and warm night on tap.

Continued to lean toward the higher end of the guidance envelop
for highs Friday. Otherwise central guidance temperatures and
dew points looked reasonable.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 420 AM Wednesday...

Models continue converging on slower timing of a cold front
crossing the area this weekend, with current timing falling a
little late for a severe threat on Saturday but still too soon
for a severe threat on Sunday. This should limit rainfall
intensity in what should be a progressive set up, but brief
localized high water issues cannot be entirely ruled out. Timing
changes and associated implications for severe and localized
water threats Saturday or Sunday bear watching in future
packages.

The early part of the new work week should turn out mostly dry,
although the front to the south and east may still be close
enough for the shower chance Monday. The next short wave trough
and frontal system may bring showers and thunderstorms back
into the area heading into the middle of next week.

Central guidance reflects another hot day Saturday well ahead of
the next cold front, and then temperatures typical of mid to
late spring for the early portion of the new week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 605 AM Wednesday...

VFR conditions can be expected this morning. A warm front will
combine with an upper level disturbance to provide showers and
thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Generally VFR
conditions will exist outside of the showers and thunderstorms
this afternoon.

Ceilings will lower to MVFR tonight over much of the area,
although southern West Virginia and southwestern Virginia could
stay VFR outside of the precipitation. Lower restrictions can be
expected in the showers and thunderstorms.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing and intensity of showers and
thunderstorms could vary.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21
EDT 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z THURSDAY...
Brief IFR possible in showers and thunderstorms Thursday
morning, and then again Saturday night into Sunday.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RPY/TRM
NEAR TERM...RPY
SHORT TERM...TRM
LONG TERM...TRM
AVIATION...RPY