-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
999
FXUS61 KRLX 131837
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
137 PM EST Fri Feb 13 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
-- Changed Discussion --
No impactful changes with only a slight increase in QPF across
north-central/north WV and SE OH.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...

-- Changed Discussion --
2.) A southern stream system brings rain Sunday. Amounts will
vary significantly from south to north, with 0.50 to 1.00 inch
possible in the southern coalfields, tapering to a trace to a
two tenths of an inch north of the Metro Valley. Brief freezing
rain/wintry mix is possible at the onset of precipitation
Sunday morning in Northeast Mountains due to weak cold air
damming and/or cold air trapped in mountain valleys.

3.) A significant warming trend arrives next week, with
temperatures potentially reaching 70 degrees by
Wednesday/Thursday in the lowlands.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.DISCUSSION...


-- Changed Discussion --
KEY MESSAGE 1...

sfc low deepens and tracks well south the of the region. This
low will also be moving through fairly quick with only a short
period of rainfall. Heaviest rain will occur across the
southern third of the CWA where a widespread 0.5" to 1.0" of
rain could fall. Across the central portion of WV/NE KY and SE
OH, 0.2" to 0.5" could fall with amounts generally less than
0.25" across north-central WV.

There could be a brief period of freezing rain/wintry mix in the
mountains due to cold air damming and colder trapped surface air
in the more sheltered valleys. If this were to occur, timing
would be very late Saturday night into Sunday morning. Any
winter precip should quickly change to plain rain by Sunday
afternoon. However we will monitor if trends support more
coverage or a longer duration of wintry precip leading to
impacts.

Hydrologically, soils remain somewhat soggy from recent
snowmelt. While widespread flooding is not anticipated, the
heavier rainfall amounts south of the coalfields could generate
isolated nuisance flooding in poor drainage areas, especially
where ice is still clogging/partially clogging smaller culverts.
Mostly open channels in the south and low streamflows in the
north mitigates but doesn`t zero out the risk of ice jams.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

High pressure across the region bringing dry weather and above
average temps. Highs on Wednesday/Thursday could challenge the
70 degree mark across the lowlands. A northern stream
disturbance is expected to track well to our north Wednesday
into Thursday. Due to the lack of phasing with southern stream
energy and moisture limitations, precipitation chances with the
associated frontal boundary remain low at this time.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
VFR through the forecast period with generally clear skies and
light/variable winds. There will be some increase in winds on
Saturday afternoon, but generally less than 7kts.


FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...


FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: There could be lower and more widespread
mid and high level cloudiness tomorrow afternoon.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EST 1HRLY       13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z SATURDAY...
IFR conditions possible Sunday, particularly across southern
terminals (BKW/HTS/CRW) in rain and low stratus.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JRM
AVIATION...JRM