Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 232326 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Charleston WV 726 PM EDT Wed Oct 23 2019 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure through Thursday night yielding dry conditions and seasonable temperatures. A system will begin to affect the area Saturday with increasing rain through the day into Sunday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 720 PM Wednesday... Blended locally produced Co-op MOS into lows tonight, which resulted in a bit cooler forecast for sheltered valleys. This seems like the right trend with dew points currently in the 20s and low 30s. Opted to expand frost advisory west another tier or two of counties. As of 130 PM Wednesday... With clear skies and valley winds expected to become light tonight in portions of West Virginia and southwestern Virginia, expect frost to form. Will issue a Frost Advisory for valleys in these areas. Note that due to previous freezing temperatures, the growing season has ended already in much of the West Virginia mountains, so no frost advisory in those areas. A high pressure system will slide eastward as a weak and dry cold front approaches from the northwest. This front will stall over central Ohio Thursday, providing only some clouds in Ohio and northwestern West Virginia. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... As of 240 PM Wednesday... During this period a southern stream trough will inch towards the area along with southwesterly strong flow advecting moisture as well. With clouds advecting in, temperatures will not get that optimal radiational cooling for frost, however frost potential will remain in the far northeastern mountains. This trough will promote chances of showers as early as Friday afternoon mainly confined to the southern edge of the CWA. Models are now in very strong agreement on starting time for the rain around late Saturday morning spreading from south to north. Saturday afternoon is when the models come into even better agreement and most are in line with having rain accumulations spread areawide around 1 to 1.5 inches total, for that reason left in likely rain into Sunday. Another surface low and upper level trough is expected to form to the far northwest which will help push our system out quicker sometime around Sunday morning. Accepted temperatures from guidance as they will hover around seasonable for this period. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 240 PM Wednesday... High pressure will set in during this period, however an active weather pattern will exist regionwide with a very broad elongated trough from Canada associated with an upper level closed expected to move through the area. This feature may spawn a few surface lows during the beginning of the work week into Wednesday which has potential to increase rain chances and cause much, much cooler temperatures. Models are too far in disagreement therefore went with central guidance and left in chance POPs through the rest of this period. Accepted temperatures from guidance although these will most likely have to be tweaked later on as models come into better agreement. && .AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 720 PM Wednesday... VFR conditions expected through the forecast period with just some passing high clouds across the west and north. Generally calm winds tonight will become light out of the south to southwest Thursday afternoon. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: None. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 EDT 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 00Z FRIDAY... Morning valley fog possible Friday particularly in deeper mountain valleys. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM EDT Thursday for WVZ005>011-013>020-024>034-039-040. OH...None. KY...Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM EDT Thursday for KYZ105. VA...Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM EDT Thursday for VAZ003-004. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RPY/ARJ NEAR TERM...RPY/MZ SHORT TERM...JZ LONG TERM...JZ AVIATION...MZ is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.