National Weather Service National Headquarters

• Home
• Site Map
• News
• Organization
• Search for: NWS All NOAA 

-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KRLX 251932
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
232 PM EST Tue Feb 25 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
Mainly dry overnight. Upper level trough crosses Wednesday into
Wednesday night bringing additional chances of rain, snow, and
gusty winds.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 1250 PM Tuesday...

A broad surface low is centered over the mid Ohio Valley this
afternoon with isolated to scattered showers across western and
northern parts of the forecast area as a warm front drifts
through. These showers should gradually diminish and drift
north as the front lifts north and drier air moves in from the
south. Will get peaks of sunshine across the southern half of
the forecast area, helping bump temperatures up near, or even
just above, 60F for many.

An upper level trough approaches from the west tonight. Ahead of
this, not much forcing for precipitation, so have a mainly dry
overnight period. Will still have plenty of clouds around, and
could get some valley fog following rain today.

Precipitation will be on the increase from west to east
Wednesday as the upper trough nears. Have an area of near 100
POPs crossing with the best upper forcing. This upper trough
also congeals/spins up a surface low just to our northeast by
Wednesday afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 210 PM Tuesday...

Steadier snow showers will become more confined to the
mountains Wednesday night, with flurries or scattered light snow
showers linger elsewhere. Accumulations of 2-4 inches are
expected in the northern mountains, tapering to scattered
dustings in the lowlands. Temperatures will fall into the teens
in the mountains and twenties for the lowlands overnight amid a
gusty westerly wind. Wind chill values will likely dip below
zero in the highest elevations as winds gust to near advisory
level criteria. Temperatures will be slow to rise Thursday as
the thermal trof settles in and stratus lingers. I suspect
flurries will linger during the day across the area as suggested
by model soundings, but the organized snow shower activity
should wind down.

Weak low level WAA will commence Thursday night into Friday as a
weak system embedded within the mean longwave trof pivots toward
the area. Models maintain some light QPF with this, mainly
across the southern half of the CWA Friday afternoon and Friday
night. Soundings indicate that despite some warming at the
surface Friday afternoon, much of this would fall as light
snow...especially Friday night. Right now accumulations appear
to be sub-advisory, but it is something to monitor.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 220 PM Tuesday...

Upper trof axis swings through Saturday as drier air tries to
overtake the column. It will remain chilly but we should see
some sunshine. WAA takes hold Sunday as the upper level pattern
briefly relaxes before ridging builds across the southern states
early next week. A warm front will cross long about Monday with
showers but will usher in much warmer air for Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 1250 PM Wednesday...

Tricky forecast this afternoon, especially across the far
northern forecast area where IFR ceilings and visibility remain.
Expect this to transition to MVFR this afternoon, but timing is
tough. Opted to give several hours of IFR before improving to
MVFR.

Have a period of VFR at southern sites late this afternoon into
tonight before ceilings start to lower back into MVFR ahead of
the next system.

Chance of precipitation increases late in the period, with rain
likely Wednesday afternoon and Wednesday night.

Winds will generally shift from southerly today and tonight to
westerly by Wednesday afternoon.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Low.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of category changes may vary.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EST 1HRLY       13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    L    H    H    H    H    M    M    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    H    M    H    H    H    H    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    M    H    H    H    M    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR possible Wednesday night and Thursday in rain and snow.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MZ/30
NEAR TERM...MZ
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...MZ