Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 070716 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Charleston WV 316 AM EDT Sun Jun 7 2020 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure brings fair and drier weather for today. Significant warming trend Monday and Tuesday, followed by a cold front Wednesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 210 AM Sunday... A very quiet near term forecast this period. A little bit of lingering fog development, mostly patchy and river valley fog, this morning will clear out just after sunrise. Mostly clear skies prevail today with a 1020mb high pressure system building in from the north. High pressure and northerly flow will help keep the area dry and slightly cooler. Although rising heights will help temperatures rise just a bit outside average by a few degrees higher for the daytime with minimal mixing as weak flow persists. Overnight, slightly cooler than average temperatures takeover with the help of optimal radiational cooling under clear skies. Fog will once again be an option, however thinking that it will be very isolated and patchy at best. The dry and quiet weather continues into the next period. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 305 AM Sunday... Little change to previous forecast reasoning for Monday and Tuesday. Increasingly hazy, hot, and humid conditions for both days (especially Tuesday) as H5 ridging strengthens overhead. Tuesday will be the hottest day of this week with nearly all locations outside of the mountains warming into the 90s. A swath of greater low level moisture is prog to advect northeast across the CWA Tuesday afternoon, resulting in increasing heat indices...with areas across the lowlands potentially having heat index values into the upper 90s during the mid/late afternoon hours. Given the hot conditions and increase in moisture availability, a few late day thunderstorms may occur...primarily across western WV, NE KY, and SE OH. However, a very warm thermal profile should preclude more significant convective coverage on Tuesday. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 309 AM Sunday... Humid conditions Tuesday night and thickening cloud cover should prevent min temps from falling out of the 70s for many areas. Guidance suites continue to differ regarding placement, strength, and timing of synoptic features for Wednesday through the remainder of the period. Currently, Wed looks to have a convective threat as the H5 ridge breaks down and a sfc cold front approaches from the west. Brief high pressure may occur Thursday, followed by yet another fast moving cold front for late in the week. Precip chances for mid week and beyond may change significantly through the next few forecast cycles, given guidance uncertainty. A more certain signal, however, is that late this week and the upcoming new weekend should be less humid and not as hot. && .AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 130 AM Sunday... With a good clearing of clouds this morning some fog will become realized and impact a few sites who have experienced rainfall previously. Thinking more on the lines of patchy fog, however areas that received more rainfall will have the best chances of becoming more dense and restrict VIS such as EKN and possibly CRW. Regardless, only coded up minimal VIS restrictions (MVFR) until the late morning. The only exception is EKN who may see IFR for a few hours. After the fog burns off shortly after sunrise high pressure will keep the aerodromes mostly clear and dry with VFR. Weak northerly flow will persist through the period. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Intensity of fog may vary slightly this morning from forecast. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE SUN 06/07/20 UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 CRW CONSISTENCY H M H M M M M H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY M L M M L L L H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H M L L L L L H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H M H H H H H H H H AFTER 06Z MONDAY... No widespread IFR conditions expected at this time. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RH/JZ NEAR TERM...JZ SHORT TERM...RH LONG TERM...RH AVIATION...JZ

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