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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KRLX 141408
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
1008 AM EDT Tue Aug 14 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
A closed upper low begrudgingly shifts northeast today. Mid
level ridging occurs for mid week, followed by another trough
and weak cold front by late in the week and into the upcoming
weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1005 AM Tuesday...

Slowed the low end POPs expansion southward over the next few
hours.

As of 625 AM Tuesday...

No changes needed at this time.

As of 140 AM Tuesday...

Dense valley fog will continue to develop through the predawn
hours. As with the past few mornings, a popup shower or
thundershower may develop across the northern half of the CWA
during the predawn...given the elevated instability above the
inversion.

Morning fog lifts after sunrise, possibly into a brief period
of low stratus across the valleys. As for today, the upper low
will spiral into the northeast, taking much of the deeper
moisture and thus precip chances with it. It is here which will
still be close enough upper low for diurnally driven convection
to develop once again. Elsewhere only isolated activity is
expected amid another robust cu field. Highs today were
generally populated using bias corrected guidance.

Any afternoon activity will quickly diminish after sunset.
Brief s/w ridging builds into the area as weak high pressure
builds overhead. It should be another decent valley fog setup,
especially for locations that receive rain today. I used a blend
of the cooler ARW and MAV for lows tonight which resulted in
similar numbers as previous night.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 254 AM Tuesday...

H5 s/w ridge axis is prog to move east across the CWA on
Wednesday which should result in very warm and dry conditions.
Exception to the dryness is if isolated locations can
reach/exceed convective temps in the afternoon. Regardless, Wed
afternoon is prog to be very warm as H85 temps warm to 18 to 20
C with sfc temps flirting with 90 degrees.

Ridging dampens on Thursday, but a warm low level thermal
profile is prog to persist. However, height fields aloft should
lower, which (with renewed instability and moisture depth)
should lead to shower and thunderstorm chances returning to the
region...mainly along and north/west of the Ohio River.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 254 AM Tuesday...

Several mid level s/w troughs are prog to advect east across the
Ohio River Valley and Great Lakes late this week and the
upcoming weekend. This will translate to nearly daily chances of
convection across the CWA. Pulse nature of thunderstorms may
lead to an isolated strong storm/isolated heavy rainfall, but
lack of significant upper level dynamics should generally
preclude a more significant severe weather threat.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 620 AM Tuesday...

Fog will lift by 13Z, perhaps into a brief period of IFR/LIFR
stratus. A robust cu field will develop late morning, followed
scattered afternoon convection across northern WV. I have a few
hours of VCTS in the CKB/EKN tafs for this afternoon as a
result.

Weak high pressure builds overhead tonight with valley fog once
again affecting terminals with LIFR/VLIFR conditions...save for
BKW.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium for timing of fog dissipation this
morning.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing eradication of fog this morning may
vary an hour.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23
EDT 1HRLY       08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    L    L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    L    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    L    L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    L    L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  L    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR or worse in valley fog Wednesday morning. IFR possible in
mainly afternoon and evening thunderstorms throughout the week.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RH/30
NEAR TERM...26/30
SHORT TERM...RH
LONG TERM...RH
AVIATION...30