Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 141408 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 1008 AM EDT Tue Aug 14 2018 .SYNOPSIS... A closed upper low begrudgingly shifts northeast today. Mid level ridging occurs for mid week, followed by another trough and weak cold front by late in the week and into the upcoming weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 1005 AM Tuesday... Slowed the low end POPs expansion southward over the next few hours. As of 625 AM Tuesday... No changes needed at this time. As of 140 AM Tuesday... Dense valley fog will continue to develop through the predawn hours. As with the past few mornings, a popup shower or thundershower may develop across the northern half of the CWA during the predawn...given the elevated instability above the inversion. Morning fog lifts after sunrise, possibly into a brief period of low stratus across the valleys. As for today, the upper low will spiral into the northeast, taking much of the deeper moisture and thus precip chances with it. It is here which will still be close enough upper low for diurnally driven convection to develop once again. Elsewhere only isolated activity is expected amid another robust cu field. Highs today were generally populated using bias corrected guidance. Any afternoon activity will quickly diminish after sunset. Brief s/w ridging builds into the area as weak high pressure builds overhead. It should be another decent valley fog setup, especially for locations that receive rain today. I used a blend of the cooler ARW and MAV for lows tonight which resulted in similar numbers as previous night. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... As of 254 AM Tuesday... H5 s/w ridge axis is prog to move east across the CWA on Wednesday which should result in very warm and dry conditions. Exception to the dryness is if isolated locations can reach/exceed convective temps in the afternoon. Regardless, Wed afternoon is prog to be very warm as H85 temps warm to 18 to 20 C with sfc temps flirting with 90 degrees. Ridging dampens on Thursday, but a warm low level thermal profile is prog to persist. However, height fields aloft should lower, which (with renewed instability and moisture depth) should lead to shower and thunderstorm chances returning to the region...mainly along and north/west of the Ohio River. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 254 AM Tuesday... Several mid level s/w troughs are prog to advect east across the Ohio River Valley and Great Lakes late this week and the upcoming weekend. This will translate to nearly daily chances of convection across the CWA. Pulse nature of thunderstorms may lead to an isolated strong storm/isolated heavy rainfall, but lack of significant upper level dynamics should generally preclude a more significant severe weather threat. && .AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 620 AM Tuesday... Fog will lift by 13Z, perhaps into a brief period of IFR/LIFR stratus. A robust cu field will develop late morning, followed scattered afternoon convection across northern WV. I have a few hours of VCTS in the CKB/EKN tafs for this afternoon as a result. Weak high pressure builds overhead tonight with valley fog once again affecting terminals with LIFR/VLIFR conditions...save for BKW. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium for timing of fog dissipation this morning. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing eradication of fog this morning may vary an hour. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 EDT 1HRLY 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 CRW CONSISTENCY M L L H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H L M H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY M L L H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H L L H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY L M M H H H H H H H H H AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY... IFR or worse in valley fog Wednesday morning. IFR possible in mainly afternoon and evening thunderstorms throughout the week. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RH/30 NEAR TERM...26/30 SHORT TERM...RH LONG TERM...RH AVIATION...30

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