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148
FXUS61 KRLX 261719
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
119 PM EDT Fri Jul 26 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
An afternoon mountain shower can not be ruled out today, but
most areas dry. Mainly dry and hot for the weekend. Unsettled
and cooler weather returns the beginning of the new work week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 1217 PM Friday...

Other than a slight chance for a shower or storm across the
mountains this afternoon as a disturbance moves south through
the region, dry weather is expected for the near term period
with high pressure in control. Much drier air is already
filtering into the area, with dew points dropping into the 50s
to lower 60s. With the drier air, and building heights expected
across the area on Saturday, high temperatures will inch a few
degrees higher than today.

Expect the development of valley fog late tonight in favored
river valleys.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 1207 PM Friday...

Key Points:

* Remaining hot and mostly dry Sunday. A stray afternoon
  thunderstorm possible across western areas.

With high pressure still in control over the central Appalachians,
most of Sunday should be dry. Hot conditions are expected with high
temperatures reaching the 90s across the lowlands and the upper 80s
in the mountains. A trough will approach from the west late Sunday,
which may bring isolated showers and thunderstorms across northeast
Kentucky and southwest Virginia late afternoon and evening. Severe
weather is not anticipated at this time.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 1207 PM Friday...

Key Points:

* Turning cooler and more unsettled for the new work week.
* Isolated flooding is possible Monday and Tuesday, mainly in
  low-lying areas. However, the rain will be mostly beneficial.

Mid-level vorticity will arrive from the west early Monday morning,
which should bring more widespread showers from west to east. Most
of the energy will be focused over portions of central and southern
WV, northeast KY, and southwest VA. This is where the bulk of the
shower activity will be on Monday. In this region, models are
depicting PWATs anywhere from 2-2.25 inches, so the atmosphere will
certainly be juicy. There will be a limited flooding potential in
this region, but given the current drought conditions in place, this
rain will be mostly beneficial. However, we will have to keep an eye
on training or slow-moving showers/thunderstorms, which can lead to
localized flooding on streets and low-lying areas. Rain will become
more widespread across the rest of WV Tuesday as another potent
shortwave drops down from the northwest and a slow-moving frontal
boundary approaches from the northwest. Again, there may be a
limited flooding potential, but the rain will be largely beneficial,
given the recent drought conditions. WPC currently has portions of
the area outlooked in a slight risk of excessive rainfall Monday and
Tuesday.

Models begin to diverge for the Wednesday-Friday timeframe. It
appears somewhat likely that rain may stick around Wednesday with
the aforementioned frontal boundary remaining parked to the
northwest, but some models show slight clearing by Thursday with
subtle ridging aloft. We will keep limited rain chances in the
forecast for the second half of the week, given the uncertainty.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 118 PM Friday...

VFR conditions with light surface winds through 06-08Z when
Patchy LIFR/VLIFR river valley fog is expected to develop and
linger through 12Z. After 12Z, VFR with light surface winds.


FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium with fog, otherwise high.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Fog may be more widespread/dense than
currently forecast.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02
EDT 1HRLY       11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z SATURDAY...
IFR under fog/low stratus Saturday and Sunday mornings.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SL/JMC
NEAR TERM...SL
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...SL