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329
FXUS61 KRLX 230654
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
254 AM EDT Fri May 23 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
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Diminishing shower chances today. The holiday weekend is set to
feature mostly dry for Saturday, with cooler than normal
temperatures. Rain chances return late Sunday. Active next week.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 155 AM Friday...

Areas of low pressure being supported by upper level troughing
overhead will gradually depart into New England today, lifting
shower potential out of the forecast area. Radar trends early
this morning depict scattered light rain embedded within low
level stratus casted by the nearby low.

As the upper trough focuses its energy further into the
northeast, showers are progged to become confined along the WV
mountains during the afternoon and early evening hours. While
skies briefly scatter out across the lowlands this morning, a
surge of moisture riding down along northwesterly flow will
infiltrate the area once more under partly to overcast clouds
this afternoon, scattering out late tonight into the start of
the weekend.

A chilly end to the work week is on tap today as aforementioned
northwesterly flow in the wake of a cold front brings cooler
temperatures in for the Memorial Day weekend. Friday morning
lows tumble down into the 40s for the vast majority of the
forecast area, with some spots along the spine of the
Appalachians dipping further down into the 30s. Despite the
colder overnight temps along the mountains, surface flow remains
breezy enough to mitigate frost/freeze possibilities. Afternoon
highs today plateau in the 40s/50s along the mountains and into
the low to mid 60s across the lowlands. Similar overnight
conditions are anticipated tonight, with winds in the mountains
remaining elevated enough to withhold the potential for frost
formation Saturday morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 250 AM Friday...

High pressure moves in at the surface from the northwest. Closed low
over New England will still have some influence as a steep pressure
gradient aloft will make for breezy NW winds across the
mountains. Otherwise, Saturday looks to be dry across our area
outside of some lingering mountain showers very early Saturday.
Highs will be below normal with the lowlands staying cooler, yet
comfortable in the mid 60s to lower 70s. The mountains, of
course, even cooler with highs in 50s and 60s expected.

There is the potential for some frost across portions of Randolph
and Pocahontas counties with overnight lows Saturday into Sunday
possibly dropping into the mid to upper 30s. The growing season is
across all elevations of these counties so may look at issuing a
frost advisory once the time comes near. A caveat to frost formation
will be possible cloud cover overhead from a nearby disturbance, but
this really only looks to manifest across the southern half of the
forecast area.

A shortwave disturbance passes to our south on Sunday introducing
rain chances across the area by the afternoon, with likely PoPs
across our VA counties, southern coalfields, and mountains of
WV. High temperatures will be similar to Saturday. Rain chances
recede some overnight Sunday, but some stray showers could
still be possible.
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&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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As of 250 AM Friday...

Rain showers look to move back in across the area on Monday and
will be very likely on Tuesday with another southern steam
system moving up from KY/TN. Instability looks to be lacking on
Monday, but a few thunderstorms may occur on Tuesday as a low
pressure center, associated with the disturbance, moves over and
provides an extra source of lift. Part of the area is already
outlooked with a marginal risk for excessive rainfall Monday
into Tuesday. Chances for rain look to linger through the week
as a broad, upper low swirls about over the Great Lakes sending
rounds of disturbances through our area.

Temperatures will remain below normal into late next week.
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&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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As of 155 AM Friday...

A departing low pressure system continues to cast low level
stratus and light showers early this morning. Ceilings will
remain in MVFR status through the predawn hours across the
majority of TAF sites before scattering out later on this
morning into the afternoon. Scattered rain across Central
Appalachia this morning will become confined to the northeast WV
mountains this afternoon before vanishing altogether tonight.

Winds remain breezy early this morning in the wake of Thursday`s
cold frontal passage. Gusts this afternoon are progged to range
between 15 to 20kts before weakening overnight tonight.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of improving ceiling heights may
vary from the forecast this morning.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                         FRI 05/23/25
UTC 1HRLY       07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18
EDT 1HRLY       03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    L    M    M    H    M    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z SATURDAY...
IFR possible in showers and thunderstorms Monday, mainly across
the south.
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&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MEK/LTC
NEAR TERM...MEK
SHORT TERM...LTC
LONG TERM...LTC
AVIATION...MEK