Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 251932 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Charleston WV 232 PM EST Tue Feb 25 2020 .SYNOPSIS... Mainly dry overnight. Upper level trough crosses Wednesday into Wednesday night bringing additional chances of rain, snow, and gusty winds. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 1250 PM Tuesday... A broad surface low is centered over the mid Ohio Valley this afternoon with isolated to scattered showers across western and northern parts of the forecast area as a warm front drifts through. These showers should gradually diminish and drift north as the front lifts north and drier air moves in from the south. Will get peaks of sunshine across the southern half of the forecast area, helping bump temperatures up near, or even just above, 60F for many. An upper level trough approaches from the west tonight. Ahead of this, not much forcing for precipitation, so have a mainly dry overnight period. Will still have plenty of clouds around, and could get some valley fog following rain today. Precipitation will be on the increase from west to east Wednesday as the upper trough nears. Have an area of near 100 POPs crossing with the best upper forcing. This upper trough also congeals/spins up a surface low just to our northeast by Wednesday afternoon. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... As of 210 PM Tuesday... Steadier snow showers will become more confined to the mountains Wednesday night, with flurries or scattered light snow showers linger elsewhere. Accumulations of 2-4 inches are expected in the northern mountains, tapering to scattered dustings in the lowlands. Temperatures will fall into the teens in the mountains and twenties for the lowlands overnight amid a gusty westerly wind. Wind chill values will likely dip below zero in the highest elevations as winds gust to near advisory level criteria. Temperatures will be slow to rise Thursday as the thermal trof settles in and stratus lingers. I suspect flurries will linger during the day across the area as suggested by model soundings, but the organized snow shower activity should wind down. Weak low level WAA will commence Thursday night into Friday as a weak system embedded within the mean longwave trof pivots toward the area. Models maintain some light QPF with this, mainly across the southern half of the CWA Friday afternoon and Friday night. Soundings indicate that despite some warming at the surface Friday afternoon, much of this would fall as light snow...especially Friday night. Right now accumulations appear to be sub-advisory, but it is something to monitor. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 220 PM Tuesday... Upper trof axis swings through Saturday as drier air tries to overtake the column. It will remain chilly but we should see some sunshine. WAA takes hold Sunday as the upper level pattern briefly relaxes before ridging builds across the southern states early next week. A warm front will cross long about Monday with showers but will usher in much warmer air for Tuesday. && .AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 1250 PM Wednesday... Tricky forecast this afternoon, especially across the far northern forecast area where IFR ceilings and visibility remain. Expect this to transition to MVFR this afternoon, but timing is tough. Opted to give several hours of IFR before improving to MVFR. Have a period of VFR at southern sites late this afternoon into tonight before ceilings start to lower back into MVFR ahead of the next system. Chance of precipitation increases late in the period, with rain likely Wednesday afternoon and Wednesday night. Winds will generally shift from southerly today and tonight to westerly by Wednesday afternoon. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Low. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of category changes may vary. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EST 1HRLY 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H L H H H H M M H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H M H M H H H H M M EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H M M H H H M H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H M H H H H H H H H AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY... IFR possible Wednesday night and Thursday in rain and snow. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MZ/30 NEAR TERM...MZ SHORT TERM...30 LONG TERM...30 AVIATION...MZ

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