


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV
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-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --329 FXUS61 KRLX 230654 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Charleston WV 254 AM EDT Fri May 23 2025 .SYNOPSIS...-- Changed Discussion --Diminishing shower chances today. The holiday weekend is set to feature mostly dry for Saturday, with cooler than normal temperatures. Rain chances return late Sunday. Active next week.-- End Changed Discussion --&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 155 AM Friday... Areas of low pressure being supported by upper level troughing overhead will gradually depart into New England today, lifting shower potential out of the forecast area. Radar trends early this morning depict scattered light rain embedded within low level stratus casted by the nearby low. As the upper trough focuses its energy further into the northeast, showers are progged to become confined along the WV mountains during the afternoon and early evening hours. While skies briefly scatter out across the lowlands this morning, a surge of moisture riding down along northwesterly flow will infiltrate the area once more under partly to overcast clouds this afternoon, scattering out late tonight into the start of the weekend. A chilly end to the work week is on tap today as aforementioned northwesterly flow in the wake of a cold front brings cooler temperatures in for the Memorial Day weekend. Friday morning lows tumble down into the 40s for the vast majority of the forecast area, with some spots along the spine of the Appalachians dipping further down into the 30s. Despite the colder overnight temps along the mountains, surface flow remains breezy enough to mitigate frost/freeze possibilities. Afternoon highs today plateau in the 40s/50s along the mountains and into the low to mid 60s across the lowlands. Similar overnight conditions are anticipated tonight, with winds in the mountains remaining elevated enough to withhold the potential for frost formation Saturday morning. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...-- Changed Discussion --As of 250 AM Friday... High pressure moves in at the surface from the northwest. Closed low over New England will still have some influence as a steep pressure gradient aloft will make for breezy NW winds across the mountains. Otherwise, Saturday looks to be dry across our area outside of some lingering mountain showers very early Saturday. Highs will be below normal with the lowlands staying cooler, yet comfortable in the mid 60s to lower 70s. The mountains, of course, even cooler with highs in 50s and 60s expected. There is the potential for some frost across portions of Randolph and Pocahontas counties with overnight lows Saturday into Sunday possibly dropping into the mid to upper 30s. The growing season is across all elevations of these counties so may look at issuing a frost advisory once the time comes near. A caveat to frost formation will be possible cloud cover overhead from a nearby disturbance, but this really only looks to manifest across the southern half of the forecast area. A shortwave disturbance passes to our south on Sunday introducing rain chances across the area by the afternoon, with likely PoPs across our VA counties, southern coalfields, and mountains of WV. High temperatures will be similar to Saturday. Rain chances recede some overnight Sunday, but some stray showers could still be possible.-- End Changed Discussion --&& .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...-- Changed Discussion --As of 250 AM Friday... Rain showers look to move back in across the area on Monday and will be very likely on Tuesday with another southern steam system moving up from KY/TN. Instability looks to be lacking on Monday, but a few thunderstorms may occur on Tuesday as a low pressure center, associated with the disturbance, moves over and provides an extra source of lift. Part of the area is already outlooked with a marginal risk for excessive rainfall Monday into Tuesday. Chances for rain look to linger through the week as a broad, upper low swirls about over the Great Lakes sending rounds of disturbances through our area. Temperatures will remain below normal into late next week.-- End Changed Discussion --&& .AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...-- Changed Discussion --As of 155 AM Friday... A departing low pressure system continues to cast low level stratus and light showers early this morning. Ceilings will remain in MVFR status through the predawn hours across the majority of TAF sites before scattering out later on this morning into the afternoon. Scattered rain across Central Appalachia this morning will become confined to the northeast WV mountains this afternoon before vanishing altogether tonight. Winds remain breezy early this morning in the wake of Thursday`s cold frontal passage. Gusts this afternoon are progged to range between 15 to 20kts before weakening overnight tonight. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of improving ceiling heights may vary from the forecast this morning. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE FRI 05/23/25 UTC 1HRLY 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 EDT 1HRLY 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 CRW CONSISTENCY H M H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H M H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H M M L M M H M H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M H H H H AFTER 06Z SATURDAY... IFR possible in showers and thunderstorms Monday, mainly across the south.-- End Changed Discussion --&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MEK/LTC NEAR TERM...MEK SHORT TERM...LTC LONG TERM...LTC AVIATION...MEK