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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KRLX 070716
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
316 AM EDT Sun Jun 7 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure brings fair and drier weather for today.
Significant warming trend Monday and Tuesday, followed by a
cold front Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 210 AM Sunday...

A very quiet near term forecast this period. A little bit of
lingering fog development, mostly patchy and river valley fog,
this morning will clear out just after sunrise. Mostly clear
skies prevail today with a 1020mb high pressure system building
in from the north. High pressure and northerly flow will help
keep the area dry and slightly cooler. Although rising heights
will help temperatures rise just a bit outside average by a few
degrees higher for the daytime with minimal mixing as weak flow
persists. Overnight, slightly cooler than average temperatures
takeover with the help of optimal radiational cooling under
clear skies. Fog will once again be an option, however thinking
that it will be very isolated and patchy at best. The dry and
quiet weather continues into the next period.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 305 AM Sunday...

Little change to previous forecast reasoning for Monday and
Tuesday. Increasingly hazy, hot, and humid conditions for both
days (especially Tuesday) as H5 ridging strengthens overhead.
Tuesday will be the hottest day of this week with nearly all
locations outside of the mountains warming into the 90s. A swath
of greater low level moisture is prog to advect northeast across
the CWA Tuesday afternoon, resulting in increasing heat
indices...with areas across the lowlands potentially having heat
index values into the upper 90s during the mid/late afternoon
hours. Given the hot conditions and increase in moisture
availability, a few late day thunderstorms may
occur...primarily across western WV, NE KY, and SE OH. However,
a very warm thermal profile should preclude more significant
convective coverage on Tuesday.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 309 AM Sunday...

Humid conditions Tuesday night and thickening cloud cover
should prevent min temps from falling out of the 70s for many
areas. Guidance suites continue to differ regarding placement,
strength, and timing of synoptic features for Wednesday through
the remainder of the period. Currently, Wed looks to have a
convective threat as the H5 ridge breaks down and a sfc cold
front approaches from the west. Brief high pressure may occur
Thursday, followed by yet another fast moving cold front for
late in the week. Precip chances for mid week and beyond may
change significantly through the next few forecast cycles, given
guidance uncertainty. A more certain signal, however, is that
late this week and the upcoming new weekend should be less humid
and not as hot.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 130 AM Sunday...

With a good clearing of clouds this morning some fog will
become realized and impact a few sites who have experienced
rainfall previously. Thinking more on the lines of patchy fog,
however areas that received more rainfall will have the best
chances of becoming more dense and restrict VIS such as EKN and
possibly CRW. Regardless, only coded up minimal VIS
restrictions (MVFR) until the late morning. The only exception
is EKN who may see IFR for a few hours. After the fog burns off
shortly after sunrise high pressure will keep the aerodromes
mostly clear and dry with VFR. Weak northerly flow will persist
through the period.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Intensity of fog may vary slightly this
morning from forecast.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              SUN 06/07/20
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    M    H    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    L    M    M    L    L    L    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    M    L    L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z MONDAY...
No widespread IFR conditions expected at this time.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RH/JZ
NEAR TERM...JZ
SHORT TERM...RH
LONG TERM...RH
AVIATION...JZ