Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 251327 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Charleston WV 927 AM EDT Fri Jun 25 2021 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure maintains mainly dry, warm and humid weather through Saturday, then increasingly unsettled Sunday into next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 925 AM Friday... Have made minor adjustments to temperature and dewpoint grids to better reflect current observations. No other changes are needed at this time. As of 640 AM Friday... Made a minor change to bring a small PoP into our far northwest counties with a few models showing some showers skirting those areas later this afternoon. Also, beefed up fog in the northern Greenbrier Valley early this morning based on satellite imagery. Otherwise, forecast appears to be on track. As of 226 AM Friday... Upper level ridge builds ever so slightly into the region today with the 588 dam isoheight lifting into Ohio and western Pennsylvania. There`s quite a bit of upstream cloud cover, mainly of the mid and high level variety, which will try to stream into our western counties today into tonight. However, this will have a hard time making it completely across our area due to the stout ridge. It is possible a few sprinkles may occur over our far northwest counties in Ohio, but anything that falls will likely fall out of a mid level deck and will have a hard time making it to the surface. With the heights building aloft slightly compared to yesterday, temps should warm a few degrees as long as cloud cover doesn`t overachieve. Considerable cloud cover tonight and light mixing will also likely result in a rather warm night with some locations up the Ohio Valley possibly not dropping below 70.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... As of 235 AM Friday... High pressure ridging overhead along with a wave of low pressure riding up a frontal boundary to the west will keep unsettled weather at bay through most of this period, however this will not suppress shower and thunderstorm potential. The frontal boundary`s parent upper level trough will stay relatively stationary while the boundary glides alongside its eastern edge with the potential for another wave to follow the same path keeping unsettled weather nearby. With temperatures reaching into the low 90`s by Sunday and continuing into the new work week, chances for shower and thunderstorm activity increase as moisture is lifted in from the deep south. Diurnal thunderstorms start off Sunday afternoon in the higher elevations and increase to areawide by Monday afternoon. Any storms would not likely be severe but rather just your average airmass type summertime diurnally driven storms. Hydro should not be an issue although with weak steering flow and possible training of cells, any localized areas that potentially receive repeated bouts of heavy downpours, could see some potential minor flooding issues. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 235 AM Friday... The aforementioned upper level trough will finally progress eastward closer to the area, lowering heights, with the boundary finally affecting us with precipitation ahead of the front on Thursday while an upper level closed off low forms over Canada. This newly developed feature will slide south and rotate over the Great Lakes throughout the rest of this period promoting unsettled weather to the area along with dropping temperatures to around average, maybe even slightly below seasonable. This feature will also promote thunderstorms for this period and going into the weekend while maintaining a southerly component to provide moisture transport from the deep south. Better dynamics by the end of the week may come into play which can facilitate stronger and more organized storms alongside the frontal boundary. && .AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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As of 640 AM Friday... VFR conditions should prevail throughout the TAF period with mid and high level cloudiness moving overhead from time to time. A slight uptick in southerly winds can also be expected during the day today with the light southerly flow remaining engaged for most locations throughout the night. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Winds may become a bit stronger than forecast today. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 EDT 1HRLY 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 12Z SATURDAY... No widespread IFR currently expected.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ABE/JZ NEAR TERM...ABE/JLB SHORT TERM...JZ LONG TERM...JZ AVIATION...ABE

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