-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
914
FXUS61 KRNK 161733
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
133 PM EDT Fri May 16 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A warm front enters the Ohio Valley today bringing storms to
this region, which will start to move into our area this
afternoon into tonight. A cold front tracks across Saturday.
High pressure builds in behind the front for Sunday into early
next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 1145 AM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

1) Severe Thunderstorm Watch #261 in effect until 6PM for parts
of NW NC, western VA west of the ROA Valley, and southern WV
generally south of I-64..

2) Strong to severe storms associated with a MCS forecast to
cross the mountains this afternoon.

3) More storms expected tonight as another MCS moves in from
KY. Severe winds/hail possible.

Based on latest radar trends and SPC analysis...An arcing band
of thunderstorms, Mesoscale Convective System (MCS) has
developed into eastern KY. Despite shading from cloud cover east
of the system, moderate insolation is underway. Coupled with
steep mid- level lapse rates, as sampled in regional 12Z
soundings, the plume of large buoyancy over the TN Valley will
extend northeastward towards the southern Appalachians. Fast,
nearly unidirectional westerly deep-layer shear should favor at
least a few supercells ahead of the MCS moving east. A mix of
large hail, which could be significant, along with damaging
winds seems likely.

A severe thunderstorm watch has been issued to account for
current radar trends which suggest MCS will follow axis of
developing CAPE downstream into our western CWA. Watch may need
to be extended farther downstream into the piedmont (along
VA/NC border) pending evolution of CAPE profiles east of the
mountains...daytime heating leading to increasing instability
there. Unlike yesterday where capping inversion held for the
most part, this same inversion (still evident in the morning RNK
sounding) should be penetrable today given the lift from the
cold pool associated with the advancing MCS.

Plan to send up another balloon from RNK. Special release is
scheduled for 18Z.

Current MCS is expected to exit the CWA this evening, leaving
lull or break between yet another MCS that is expected to
develop farther upstream across MO and western KY, moving east
again, and crossing the southern Appalachians during the
overnight. Models have trouble capturing the timing and
intensity of these systems so stay tuned for future updates as
these mesoscale features evolve.

Highs today will be in the 80s east of the Blue Ridge and in
the mid 70s to around 80 west. Lows Friday night remain elevated
due to showers/higher RH, with lower to mid 60s Piedmont/foothills
to upper 50s mountains.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 130 PM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

1) Windy conditions during weekend

2) A few small chances of precipitation before another front arrives
mid-next week

With a cold front passing through this weekend, winds will be
northwesterly and considerably gusty along and west of the Blue
Ridge. Model guidance suggests sustained winds of 10-15 mph and wind
gusts of 25-35 mph. Winds at the highest elevations may be a little
stronger due to a low level jet.

Winds will calm down by Monday afternoon as the Mid-Atlantic will be
in a smaller pressure gradient. Dew points and temperatures will
take a small hit but are expected to recover by the middle of next
week as a warm front approaches from the west. Dew points will still
be in the 50s and PWATs will also be at least 1" for the more
southern counties. Some 500mb shortwaves are expected to pass
through the region prior to the next cold front which could bring
some additional precipitation chances for the more western and
mountainous counties. Given it is May, this precipitation will
likely be in the form of thunderstorms though severe weather is
currently unlikely.
-- End Changed Discussion --


&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 130 PM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

1) Chance of widespread precipitation mid-next week

2) Drier air to move in

A surface low is projected to pass through the region mid-next week
but specific impacts will be determined on its trajectory. This low
is expected to be dragging fronts with it but it`s position relative
to our area will determine if our area gets a cold front, a warm
front, or both. Precipitation is the highest with this system next
week, but it is too early to know of any severe weather hazards or
how much precipitation will accompany this system.

The air mass that follows it will be considerably drier with dew
points lowering into the 50s region-wide and PWATs tanking to
about 0.25-0.50 inches. The air temperatures also may be a
little cooler with highs in the upper 60s and lower 70s towards
the Piedmont.

An upper level low is projected to pass through the northeast
portion of CONUS towards the end of next week but model guidance is
currently unsure if it will be a cut off low. The upper low looks to
move slowly regardless of this and provide multiple vorticity
maxima to the Mid-Atlantic. With the dry conditions, however,
additional precipitation is unlikely.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 650 AM EDT Friday...

Look for fog to clear out soon, with mainly VFR through the
period.

A few showers/possible storms may occur this morning along/west
of a HSP-BCB-MKJ line. More showers/storms this afternoon but
scattered nature. Amendments may be needed. Expect a better
chance of showers/storms into this evening and possibly
overnight with a more organized cluster of showers/storms moving
in. At the moment will have VCSH/VCTS mainly in the west tonight
with possible MVFR.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

Activity continues into early Saturday, but should see drying
out heading into Saturday afternoon. So expect some periods of
sub- VFR during this time.

Expect clearing for Saturday night and Sunday. High pressure
ridging into the Mid- Atlantic Sunday and into early next week,
keeping the weather quiet with likely VFR conditions for all
terminals. Unsettled weather returns Tuesday into Wednesday.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
As of 320 AM EDT Friday...

The National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office in
Blacksburg, VA is continuing to conduct a required, scheduled
update to their Advanced Weather Interactive Processing System
(AWIPS) that began Tuesday, May 13, 2025.

While we have taken back over most of the forecast operations,
our service back-up office in Raleigh, NC, there may still be
issues with delayed or missing products until all services are
restored. No impacts to our core services of forecast products
and weather watches, warnings and advisories are expected during
this period.

The forecast office in Blacksburg, VA will remain open and
staffed through the period for public and partner phone calls.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WP
NEAR TERM...PM/WP
SHORT TERM...CG
LONG TERM...CG
AVIATION...WP
EQUIPMENT...WP