Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KRNK 061835 AFDRNK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 235 PM EDT Thu May 6 2021 .SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
A low pressure system will cross the Ohio Valley tonight and the Mid Atlantic region on Friday, which will bring showers and even cooler temperatures. Another brief period of drying will take place Saturday. Wet weather returns for Sunday and Monday as low pressure tracks from the Central Plains into New England.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 220 PM EDT Thursday... Slowing down the onset of the precipitation Friday morning High clouds will increase tonight. Using HREF models for timing of the precipitation coming in Friday morning. This slows down the showers reaching western Virginia and North Carolina until after 5AM. As the low crosses southern Virginia, winds will turn to the northwest with increasing wind speeds by afternoon. Instability and enough CAPE to support thunder is confined to east and south of Danville. temperatures tonight will drop quickly in the evening with light winds and minimum clouds but once clouds fill in and thicken, cooling will slow down. Will keep maximum temperatures Friday below guidance due to the clouds and rain expected.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 145 PM EDT Thursday... ...Temps Struggle To Moderate With Active Pattern Persisting... Short term part of the forecast begins with a weak shortwave trying to press into the area, following up behind the previous wave that should be approaching the east coast at this timeframe. That said, this wave brings yet another opportunity for showers: however, forecast soundings show a lot of dry air to overcome at this point. Precipitation will be hard pressed to reach the surface, especially as the wave approaches and passes over the Blue Ridge. For now, most measurable rainfall will occur along and near the western slopes. Thanks to the persisting disturbances with post westerly flow, temperatures will remain on the cool side: keeping us below normal for highs Saturday. Friday`s initial rain maker will have a deepening low pressure off the northeastern coast, increasing PGF and thus increasing winds for us Saturday here. Not headline worthy, but enough to make you notice. Following this, a developing system over the central U.S. will lift a warm front through the area starting early Sunday morning. With the warm front comes yet another day where we see a stout LLJ crank up that will bring strong southerly winds to the area. This flow, in turn, will usher in a much more humid/saturated airmass into the region with temperatures quickly recovering by 10 degrees at least almost CWA wide. The warm up from Sunday remains short lived as the system continues to skirt across the U.S., bringing a cold front to the Mid-Atlantic midday Monday.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 155 PM EDT Thursday... ...Below Normal Temperatures Expected Through Next Week With More Rain Opportunities On The Way... Right now, despite the warm unstable airmass with LLJ being present, guidance is in fairly good agreement about a repeat event from Monday where strong convection along the southern states blocks us from the Gulf, inhibiting good convective development here with this event. For now look for mainly rainfall with some isolated rumbles of thunder. Temperatures will technically be even warmer for Monday, but not for long as the cold front will be cooling things from west to east later in the day. Guidance is in fairly good agreement that we remain below normal temperature wise through a majority of next work week thanks to the cool down following the front Monday, followed up by an in-situ wedge that develops mid-late week. The wedge forms when a southern stream low develops out in the southern central U.S. and passes over the Mid-Atlantic Thursday into Friday. Rainfall from this looks to be fairly healthy and will continue to try and bring recovery from our so far below normal precipitation year.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 145 PM EDT Thursday... Bufkit forecast sounding showed stratocumulus over the piedmont of southern Virginia this afternoon. Have kept broken clouds in for KDAN until sunset. Otherwise scattered to broken cirrus over the central and northern Blue Ridge. Cloud increase tonight as low pressure approaches the Mid Atlantic region out of the Ohio Valley. Have delayed the onset on the showers Friday morning based on the timing of the latest HREF models. Ceilings will remain VFR until after 09Z/5AM then will lower to MVFR for the rest of Friday morning. Wind will be light and variable tonight then turn to the west and northwest behind the low on Friday. Moderate to high confidence in visibility, wind, and ceilings. Extended Aviation Discussion... Expect VFR conditions again Saturday. Low pressure tracking from the Central Plains into New England will bring rain and MVFR or lower conditions to the area from late Sunday through Monday. The weather will dry out and conditions will improve for Tuesday. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...None. NC...None. WV...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...PM NEAR TERM...AMS SHORT TERM...RR LONG TERM...RR AVIATION...AMS/PM

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.