Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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000 FXUS61 KRNK 031740 AFDRNK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 140 PM EDT Sat Jun 3 2023 .SYNOPSIS... Showers and thunderstorms will develop as a backdoor cold front pushes southward this evening. Cooler air will follow for Sunday. A lingering upper level low should provide daily chances of showers and thunderstorms into the next work week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 130 PM EDT Saturday... Confidence is high for showers and thunderstorms later this afternoon and evening due to a backdoor cold front. A backdoor cold front will arrive from the northeast this evening as a closed upper level low dives southward from eastern Canada. Ahead of this front, compressional warming has boosted temperatures well into the 80s but also raised the CAPE to about 1,000 J/kg. The 12Z RNK sounding showed DCAPE also approaching 1,000 J/kg. This combination of instability for updrafts and downdrafts has resulted in a marginal risk of severe weather due to damaging winds this afternoon. A couple showers and thunderstorms are already developing in southeast West Virginia and will continue to spread and intensify this afternoon. There is not much wind shear or steering momentum aloft, so these storms will be slowly moving and could produce some heavy downpours. While thunderstorms will reach North Carolina this evening, activity further north in Virginia and West Virginia should taper to lingering showers overnight. Patchy fog and low clouds should spread across the Mid Atlantic after midnight in the wake of the backdoor cold front. Temperatures should fall into the 50s by early Sunday morning. Clouds may linger for most of the day, but some clearing appears possible towards Sunday afternoon as temperatures make it towards the lower 60s to the lower 70s. A couple showers and thunderstorms could develop west of the Blue Ridge in the afternoon along the periphery of the cool northeasterly flow wedged against the eastern Appalachian Mountains. Any activity should be much weaker due to more stable air and the backdoor front stalling in North Carolina. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 140 PM EDT Saturday... Cool Sunday night, then moderating temperatures into Tuesday. Closed upper low meanders eastward into Tuesday. A ridge of high pressure will build south along the lee of the Appalachians Sunday into Sunday night. Any afternoon convection created by upslope flow, low level moisture and heating will diminish at sunset. Light winds combined with limited cloud cover will result in patchy fog late Sunday night into Monday morning. Low temperatures Sunday night will range from the upper 40s in the deeper mountain valleys to the mid 50s in the Piedmont. For Monday into Tuesday, low level flow switches to northwest across the area in response to a tightening pressure gradient as an upper low drifts around New England. Weak disturbances heading southeast through the prevailing flow will trigger convection. The best chance for storms on Monday will be in the southwest. Extended the slight chance of a thunderstorms further east to match up better with RAH. High temperatures Monday will be in the mid 70s in the mountains to the mid 80s in the Piedmont. Afternoon storms will wane quickly with the loss of solar heating Monday night. Lows will vary from near 50 degrees in the west to near 60 degrees in the east. An isolated shower or storm is possible in western sections Tuesday afternoon. The trend of the models recently have been to decrease pops. High temperatures Tuesday will warm into the mid 60s in the northern mountains to the mid 80s in the Piedmont. Confidence in the Short Term Period is moderate.
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As of 140 PM EDT Saturday... Slightly cooler with isolated showers mainly in the mountains. A cut-off upper low over New England will slowly move eastward into the weekend. Within the broad circulation around the low, periodic weak shortwave troughs will cross over or just north of the region. The combination of low level moisture and heating will generate isolated showers and perhaps a thunderstorm mainly to the mountains into Thursday. For the weekend chances actually decrease as the upper low opens into a broad trough and lift into the Canadian Maritimes. Then, it looks like the chances of rain increase Sunday into Monday. Temperatures are expected to average slightly below normal, then rise into early next week. Confidence in the Long Term Forecast is low to moderate.
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&& .AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 130 PM EDT Saturday... Confidence is increasing for showers and thunderstorms to impact all terminals later this afternoon starting with LWB first and spreading southward towards the other sites. In any of the thunderstorms, restrictions to visibilities and a potential gust of wind from the north to northeast is possible. Ceilings will eventually fall overnight to IFR, especially for any locations that receive rainfall. Some patchy fog is possible with LWB and BCB having the best chances. Poor flying conditions are likely by Sunday morning as ceilings will be slow to lift towards MVFR. Some partial clearing and a return to VFR might be possible by Sunday evening. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK... More patchy fog and low ceilings appear likely for Sunday night into Monday morning. Shower and thunderstorm chances may occur along the southern Blue Ridge during Monday afternoon as ceilings try to rise again. VFR conditions should become more favorable during the remainder of the week, but there will still be chances each afternoon of isolated showers and thunderstorms in the mountains. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...None. NC...None. WV...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...PW NEAR TERM...PW SHORT TERM...KK LONG TERM...KK AVIATION...PW is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.