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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KRNK 032254
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
654 PM EDT Fri Apr 3 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
An area of low pressure will remain over the western Atlantic.
Meanwhile, high pressure extends from the Great Lakes region to the
Gulf of Mexico. Little change in this pattern is expected through
Saturday, both features remaining nearly stationary. A weak upper
level disturbance will pass across the region Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 645 PM EDT Friday...

Gusty winds will diminish after sunset with mainly clear skies
expected through the night. Previous forecast has this handled
well.

Previous discussion from early this afternoon...

Low pressure off the New England coast will retrograde
southeast this afternoon and push out into the Atlantic ocean
tonight into Saturday. High pressure will control our weather
tonight into Saturday. The steep pressure gradient between the
spine of the Appalachians and the coast has resulted in gusty
winds this afternoon. The advection of very dry air has created
relative humidities in minimums as low as 15 to 22 percent this
afternoon. An SPS has been posted to highlight weather
conditions which will support higher rates of spread for
wildland fires today. Kept the statement going to 00z this
evening. Winds will diminish with the loss of solar heating this
evening into tonight and as the Coastal low pushes away. Under
mostly clear skies, it will be cold tonight with low
temperatures from around 30 degrees in the mountains to around
40 degrees in the piedmont. The high pressure center will slide
east on Saturday. High temperatures Saturday will vary from the
the mid 50s in the northwest mountains of Greenbrier county in
Southeast West Virginia to the lower 70s along the southern Blue
Ridge mountains.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 200 PM EDT Friday...

Omega block breaks down but the Appalachians and central mid Atlantic
region will remain under ridging dominated by the southern stream. This
will keep temperatures well above normal through the first part of next
week.

A weak front will move through the region on Sunday and this may be
enough to generate scattered showers especially in the mountains and
north of route 460, but moisture and instability are limited so chances
for thunder are slim. The frontal boundary will linger around and move
back as a warm front Monday/Monday night with more showers possible.
Coverage will be a bit greater with forcing thanks to added isentropic
lift and there will be a little more in the way of instability so
chances of thunder increase as well. But overall looking like ordinary
convection.

Expect a gradual warming trend with highs Monday in the middle 70s east
of the Blue Ridge with readings around 70 more common to the west.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 205 PM EDT Friday...

 A more active pattern sets up for the remainder of the work week.
Tuesday, southern stream energy delivers showers, as well as some
scattered storms to the region. Right now, storms will primarily be
confined to the afternoon when instability will be the greatest. This
system lingers into Wednesday and continues to provide the opportunity
for showers and afternoon storms. A large driver in the instability
both days will be the above average temperatures as many by Wednesday
warm into the upper 70s/low 80s. That said, nighttime lows will also be
very mild for this time of year with many not dropping below 50 degrees
Wednesday AM.

Very little time separates the passage of the southern stream energy
before a northern stream system brings a front to the region Thursday,
with timing continuing to look like mainly late afternoon. With less
instability, it looks to be mostly just rain arriving with it. This
front should help push us down some temperature wise, bringing temps
back closer to average.

Once again, there isnt too much of a break with guidance indicating a
southern stream system tracking across the central U.S. Friday.
However, guidance remains varied on timing of arrival, as well as exact
track with the system. Track of this system will decide how much
rainfall we get from it. For now, a blend of guidance will be used
until better agreement can be reached.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 653 PM EDT Friday...

High confidence forecast for widespread VFR conditions
continuing through Saturday. Winds will diminish tonight into
Saturday.


Extended Aviation Discussion...

A weak disturbance will cross the area on Sunday. Western
sections may see some isolated showers along with some very
localized sub-VFR conditions. MVFR showers are possible on
Monday especially in the west. Scattered MVFR showers and
isolated thunderstorms may be possible Tuesday and Wednesday.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
As of 125 PM EDT Friday...

A very dry airmass will reside over the Virginias and Carolinas
today with critically low humidity this afternoon into  this
evening, RH values dipping under 20 percent in some locations.
The low humidity coupled with gusty northwest winds may result
in elevated fire weather conditions, especially across the
piedmont where temperatures will be much warmer compared to the
mountains. Woodland fuels, such as leaf litter and pine needle
cast will be most receptive to fire spread. Greenup within the
grassier fuels and higher soil moisture content will help
mitigate some of the fire spread threat otherwise.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KK/PM
NEAR TERM...KK/WP
SHORT TERM...MBS
LONG TERM...RR
AVIATION...KK/PM/WP
FIRE WEATHER...PM