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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KRNK 061835
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
235 PM EDT Thu May 6 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
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A low pressure system will cross the Ohio Valley tonight and
the Mid Atlantic region on Friday, which will bring showers and
even cooler temperatures. Another brief period of drying will
take place Saturday. Wet weather returns for Sunday and Monday
as low pressure tracks from the Central Plains into New England.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 220 PM EDT Thursday...

   Slowing down the onset of the precipitation Friday morning

High clouds will increase tonight. Using HREF models for timing
of the precipitation coming in Friday morning. This slows down
the showers reaching western Virginia and North Carolina until
after 5AM. As the low crosses southern Virginia, winds will turn
to the northwest with increasing wind speeds by afternoon.
Instability and enough CAPE to support thunder is confined to
east and south of Danville.

temperatures tonight will drop quickly in the evening with
light winds and minimum clouds but once clouds fill in and
thicken, cooling will slow down. Will keep maximum temperatures
Friday below guidance due to the clouds and rain expected.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
 
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As of 145 PM EDT Thursday...

...Temps Struggle To Moderate With Active Pattern Persisting...

Short term part of the forecast begins with a weak shortwave trying
to press into the area, following up behind the previous wave that
should be approaching the east coast at this timeframe. That said,
this wave brings yet another opportunity for showers: however,
forecast soundings show a lot of dry air to overcome at this point.
Precipitation will be hard pressed to reach the surface, especially
as the wave approaches and passes over the Blue Ridge. For now, most
measurable rainfall will occur along and near the western slopes.

Thanks to the persisting disturbances with post westerly flow,
temperatures will remain on the cool side: keeping us below normal
for highs Saturday. Friday`s initial rain maker will have a
deepening low pressure off the northeastern coast, increasing PGF
and thus increasing winds for us Saturday here. Not headline worthy,
but enough to make you notice.

Following this, a developing system over the central U.S. will lift
a warm front through the area starting early Sunday morning. With
the warm front comes yet another day where we see a stout LLJ crank
up that will bring strong southerly winds to the area. This flow, in
turn, will usher in a much more humid/saturated airmass into the
region with temperatures quickly recovering by 10 degrees at least
almost CWA wide.

The warm up from Sunday remains short lived as the system continues
to skirt across the U.S., bringing a cold front to the Mid-Atlantic
midday Monday.
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&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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As of 155 PM EDT Thursday...

...Below Normal Temperatures Expected Through Next Week With
More Rain Opportunities On The Way...

Right now, despite the warm unstable airmass with LLJ
being present, guidance is in fairly good agreement about a repeat
event from Monday where strong convection along the southern states
blocks us from the Gulf, inhibiting good convective development
here with this event. For now look for mainly rainfall with some
isolated rumbles of thunder. Temperatures will technically be even
warmer for Monday, but not for long as the cold front will be
cooling things from west to east later in the day.

Guidance is in fairly good agreement that we remain below normal
temperature wise through a majority of next work week thanks to the
cool down following the front Monday, followed up by an in-situ
wedge that develops mid-late week. The wedge forms when a southern
stream low develops out in the southern central U.S. and passes
over the Mid-Atlantic Thursday into Friday. Rainfall from this looks
to be fairly healthy and will continue to try and bring recovery
from our so far below normal precipitation year.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 145 PM EDT Thursday...

Bufkit forecast sounding showed stratocumulus over the piedmont
of southern Virginia this afternoon. Have kept broken clouds in
for KDAN until sunset. Otherwise scattered to broken cirrus
over the central and northern Blue Ridge.

Cloud increase tonight as low pressure approaches the Mid
Atlantic region out of the Ohio Valley. Have delayed the onset
on the showers Friday morning based on the timing of the latest
HREF models. Ceilings will remain VFR until after 09Z/5AM then
will lower to MVFR for the rest of Friday morning.

Wind will be light and variable tonight then turn to the west
and northwest behind the low on Friday.

Moderate to high confidence in visibility, wind, and ceilings.

Extended Aviation Discussion...

Expect VFR conditions again Saturday. Low pressure tracking
from the Central Plains into New England will bring rain and
MVFR or lower conditions to the area from late Sunday through
Monday. The weather will dry out and conditions will improve for
Tuesday.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...AMS
SHORT TERM...RR
LONG TERM...RR
AVIATION...AMS/PM