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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KRNK 191856
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
256 PM EDT Thu May 19 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
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Summerlike warmth with higher humidity is expected for the remainder of
the week and weekend.  A brief shower or thunderstorm is possible, but
coverage will be scattered.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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As of 245 PM EDT Thursday...

Marginal Risk for severe weather tonight.

A warm front extends from the central Mid-Atlantic west across
southern KY into a mesoscale induce convective vortex (MCV)
center over Missouri. North of the warm front, the airmass was
dry and stable. South of the warm front, the airmass was moist
and quite unstable with SBCAPES of 3000+ j/KG across TN/KY.
This airmass will ignited clusters of thunderstorm activity
along the front, which will have the opportunity to move
downstream and into our forecast area during the overnight.
Synoptic models are poor at best with respect to precip
generation. Convective Allowing Models (CAMS) are OK, but still
may not capture the details/timing. For our forecast, we used
the HREF which seems to have the most realistic representation
of where and when showers/storms will develop with progression
downstream along the warm front. There were at least one or two
members that developed a bonafide MCS, those members having this
feature move along the warm front from KY into WV during the
overnight. Greatest threat if this were to occur would be
damaging winds.

After tonight, the warm front is expected to lift north, leaving
the forecast area under building high pressure. With lack of any
synoptic or mesoscale forcing, any thunderstorm activity would
be isolated, diurnally driven, and mainly confined to the
mountains. Temperatures/dewpoints the next several days will
resemble summer...so get ready for the heat and humidity.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 230 PM EDT Thursday...

Any daytime thunderstorm activity should begin to subside after
sunset as we lose daytime heating, leading to a mostly dry Friday
night. Now well within southwest flow, overnight will remain mild
and humid with many locations remaining in the mid to upper 60s
overnight.

Expect another hot day for Saturday as ridging still remains locked
in place. Widespread upper 80s to mid 90s will be common once again.
A weak impulse underneath the upper-level ridging will drift
northward on Saturday which should provide a bit more forcing for
ascent, so expecting better coverage of rain and afternoon
thunderstorms on Saturday. Best focus for these will be along the
southern Blue Ridge from northwest NC and into southern VA, but not
limited to these locations. Again, should see storms dissipate by
early Saturday night and another mostly dry and very mild overnight
is expected.

The front that was expected to cross the area on Sunday in previous
forecasts has slowed considerably when going through various model
guidance this afternoon. As a result, another hot and humid day is
likely. Clouds and an earlier start to afternoon rain/storms may
limit heating some, but still could see low 90s in the east, 80s for
the mountains. Rain and isolated storms may remain into Sunday
night.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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As of 230 PM EDT Thursday...

Guidance is still trending slower with the passage of the next
front, with some guidance even stalling the front across our region.
This should allow for rain chances to continue into Monday/Monday
night. Some guidance is also pursuing the idea that the front does
not completely clear the area and we remain locked in with showers
through at least mid-week. There is still quite a bit of uncertainty
beyond Monday, but kept the mention of rain through the entire long
term forecast period.

Regardless of the uncertainty with the rain, looks like much cooler
air is one the way for the first of next week. Widespread 60s and
70s will be possible, especially if we begin to see high pressure to
the north wedge southward, which is also a scenario that is being
hinted at with guidance.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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As of 230 PM EDT Thursday...

Overall looking at mainly VFR through the period. Exception
within the vicinity of showers and thunderstorms which will be
scattered across the region this evening and into the overnight.
There is a vigorous mesoscale vorticity center that will move
across the lower Ohio Valley tonight. Thunderstorms will be
prolific underneath and ahead of this feature as it moves east
across KY, southern IN, OH, and WV. Debris clouds from this
activity will move downstream and into the central Mid-Atlantic.

West winds will be gusty at times until sunset...15 to
20kts. Higher gusts are likely withing the vicinity of
thunderstorms.

Extended Aviation Discussion...

Coverage of showers and thunderstorms will diminish Friday with
only isolated coverage, and limited to the mountains on Friday
and Saturday. Prevailing conditions will be VFR with well-above
normal temperatures. Sub-VFR conditions are possible Sunday-
Monday with rain and thunderstorms chances increasing.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.CLIMATE...
As of 445 AM EDT Wednesday...

Friday May 20, 2022

Location       Forecast  Record    Record Year

Bluefield, WV    87        87        1996
Danville, VA     95        97        1996
Lynchburg, VA    95        96        1941
Roanoke, VA      94        98        1934
Blacksburg, VA   89        90        1934

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...PM
SHORT TERM...BMG
LONG TERM...BMG
AVIATION...PM
CLIMATE...VFJ