Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KRNK 191856 AFDRNK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 256 PM EDT Thu May 19 2022 .SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
Summerlike warmth with higher humidity is expected for the remainder of the week and weekend. A brief shower or thunderstorm is possible, but coverage will be scattered.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 245 PM EDT Thursday... Marginal Risk for severe weather tonight. A warm front extends from the central Mid-Atlantic west across southern KY into a mesoscale induce convective vortex (MCV) center over Missouri. North of the warm front, the airmass was dry and stable. South of the warm front, the airmass was moist and quite unstable with SBCAPES of 3000+ j/KG across TN/KY. This airmass will ignited clusters of thunderstorm activity along the front, which will have the opportunity to move downstream and into our forecast area during the overnight. Synoptic models are poor at best with respect to precip generation. Convective Allowing Models (CAMS) are OK, but still may not capture the details/timing. For our forecast, we used the HREF which seems to have the most realistic representation of where and when showers/storms will develop with progression downstream along the warm front. There were at least one or two members that developed a bonafide MCS, those members having this feature move along the warm front from KY into WV during the overnight. Greatest threat if this were to occur would be damaging winds. After tonight, the warm front is expected to lift north, leaving the forecast area under building high pressure. With lack of any synoptic or mesoscale forcing, any thunderstorm activity would be isolated, diurnally driven, and mainly confined to the mountains. Temperatures/dewpoints the next several days will resemble summer...so get ready for the heat and humidity.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 230 PM EDT Thursday... Any daytime thunderstorm activity should begin to subside after sunset as we lose daytime heating, leading to a mostly dry Friday night. Now well within southwest flow, overnight will remain mild and humid with many locations remaining in the mid to upper 60s overnight. Expect another hot day for Saturday as ridging still remains locked in place. Widespread upper 80s to mid 90s will be common once again. A weak impulse underneath the upper-level ridging will drift northward on Saturday which should provide a bit more forcing for ascent, so expecting better coverage of rain and afternoon thunderstorms on Saturday. Best focus for these will be along the southern Blue Ridge from northwest NC and into southern VA, but not limited to these locations. Again, should see storms dissipate by early Saturday night and another mostly dry and very mild overnight is expected. The front that was expected to cross the area on Sunday in previous forecasts has slowed considerably when going through various model guidance this afternoon. As a result, another hot and humid day is likely. Clouds and an earlier start to afternoon rain/storms may limit heating some, but still could see low 90s in the east, 80s for the mountains. Rain and isolated storms may remain into Sunday night.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 230 PM EDT Thursday... Guidance is still trending slower with the passage of the next front, with some guidance even stalling the front across our region. This should allow for rain chances to continue into Monday/Monday night. Some guidance is also pursuing the idea that the front does not completely clear the area and we remain locked in with showers through at least mid-week. There is still quite a bit of uncertainty beyond Monday, but kept the mention of rain through the entire long term forecast period. Regardless of the uncertainty with the rain, looks like much cooler air is one the way for the first of next week. Widespread 60s and 70s will be possible, especially if we begin to see high pressure to the north wedge southward, which is also a scenario that is being hinted at with guidance.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 230 PM EDT Thursday... Overall looking at mainly VFR through the period. Exception within the vicinity of showers and thunderstorms which will be scattered across the region this evening and into the overnight. There is a vigorous mesoscale vorticity center that will move across the lower Ohio Valley tonight. Thunderstorms will be prolific underneath and ahead of this feature as it moves east across KY, southern IN, OH, and WV. Debris clouds from this activity will move downstream and into the central Mid-Atlantic. West winds will be gusty at times until sunset...15 to 20kts. Higher gusts are likely withing the vicinity of thunderstorms. Extended Aviation Discussion... Coverage of showers and thunderstorms will diminish Friday with only isolated coverage, and limited to the mountains on Friday and Saturday. Prevailing conditions will be VFR with well-above normal temperatures. Sub-VFR conditions are possible Sunday- Monday with rain and thunderstorms chances increasing.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .CLIMATE... As of 445 AM EDT Wednesday... Friday May 20, 2022 Location Forecast Record Record Year Bluefield, WV 87 87 1996 Danville, VA 95 97 1996 Lynchburg, VA 95 96 1941 Roanoke, VA 94 98 1934 Blacksburg, VA 89 90 1934 && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...None. NC...None. WV...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...PM NEAR TERM...PM SHORT TERM...BMG LONG TERM...BMG AVIATION...PM CLIMATE...VFJ

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.