Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Diego, CA

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FXUS66 KSGX 221140
AFDSGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Diego CA
340 AM PST Tue Jan 22 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
Into next week, high pressure aloft will be centered near the West
Coast with a broad trough of low pressure covering much of the
rest of the lower 48 states. Lower level flow will be mostly
offshore with gusty northeast winds along and near the coastal
mountain slopes and below passes and canyons. Today there will be
one round of stronger and more widespread winds, another for late
Thursday into Friday, again on Saturday, and another for late
Monday into Tuesday. High temperatures will warm into Saturday,
then may cool a little into early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

Into next week, high pressure aloft will be centered near the West
Coast with a broad trough of low pressure across much of the rest
of the lower 48 states. On the west side of this trough,
shortwaves will move southward through the western states with a
period of stronger and more widespread offshore winds along and
behind each shortwave.

The initial round of more widespread and stronger northeast winds
will be today and tonight, with periods of more localized and
weaker winds for Wednesday into Thursday. For later this week into
early next week there is lower confidence into the timing and
strength of the periods of offshore winds. Following the ensemble
means, the next round of more widespread winds would be late
Thursday into Friday, another on Saturday, and yet another for
late Monday into Tuesday.

For Orange County, the Inland Empire, and neighboring mountains,
winds are gusting to 40 to 45 mph near the mountain ridge tops
with gusts along the coastal slopes and below passes and canyons.
These winds are expected to strengthen and become more widespread
from before sunrise through mid morning. Cross sections of the
higher resolution models also show a well-defined mountain wave
downstream (south) of the San Bernardino County mountains roughly
from near Ontario to near Riverside. The winds will become less
widespread during the afternoon and diminish some. Periods of
northeast winds that are more localized and not as strong will
continue for tonight into Wednesday morning.

For the San Diego County mountains and inland valleys, winds will
begin to develop this morning with the strongest and most
widespread winds from late afternoon through late evening. Areas
of northeast winds that are not as strong will continue for late
tonight into Wednesday morning.

High temperatures will warm into Saturday, then may cool slightly
for Sunday into early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
221000Z...Clear skies today and tonight. Northeast winds with gusts
35-45 kt along the coastal mountain slopes and below the passes and
canyons, spreading into the inland valleys and Orange County coastal
plain by 16Z. Strong winds will continue through early afternoon,
weakening and becoming less widespread late afternoon and evening.
STG-SVR UDDFS and pockets of LLWS likely over and SW of mountains.

&&

.MARINE...
Northwest winds will turn northeast 15-25 kt this morning and
decrease this afternoon. A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect
until 1 PM. No hazardous marine weather is expected this afternoon
through Saturday.

&&

.BEACHES...
High tides this morning could produce minor coastal flooding at low-
lying beach areas. A Beach Hazards Statement remains in effect
through noon today, which describes the details.

&&

.SKYWARN...
Skywarn activation is not requested. However weather spotters are
encouraged to report significant weather conditions.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Wind Advisory from 6 AM this morning to noon PST Wednesday for
     San Diego County Mountains-San Diego County Valleys.

     Wind Advisory until noon PST Wednesday for Orange County Inland
     Areas-Riverside County Mountains-San Bernardino County
     Mountains-San Bernardino and Riverside County Valleys-The
     Inland Empire-San Gorgonio Pass Near Banning-Santa Ana
     Mountains and Foothills.

     Beach Hazards Statement until noon PST today for Orange County
     Coastal Areas-San Diego County Coastal Areas.

PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM PST this afternoon for Coastal
     Waters from San Mateo Point to the Mexican Border and out
     to 30 nm-Waters from San Mateo point to the Mexican Border
     Extending 30 to 60 nm out including San Clemente Island.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...17
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...MM


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