881
FXUS65 KSLC 151416
AFDSLC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
816 AM MDT Mon Jun 15 2026

.KEY MESSAGES, Issued 953 PM MDT Sun Jun 14 2026...


- High pressure will bring hot and very dry conditions through
  the first half of the upcoming week. There is a greater than 50
  percent chance HeatRisk will reach the major category across the
  lower deserts of southern Utah including Zion National Park and
  St George Tuesday and Wednesday.

- Elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions will
  impact portions of central and eastern Utah on Monday.

- Gusty northwest winds combined with hot and very dry airmass
  will result in critical fire weather conditions Tuesday and
  Wednesday across much of the state where fuels are critically
  dry.


&&

.DISCUSSION, Issued 953 PM MDT Sun Jun 14 2026...
An upper low spinning over northern California has
helped pull moisture northward into southern and eastern Utah,
where showers and thunderstorms once again developed by early
afternoon. These storms have been decreasing over the past couple
of hours as instability wanes, and will continue to diminish over
the next few hours. This upper low will weaken and retrograde
back over the eastern Pacific later tonight through Monday, as mid
level ridging builds into the Pacific Northwest and northern
Great Basin. A drier northwest flow will erode this moisture over
southern Utah, although hi-res guidance suggests enough moisture
will lingering to support a few high based showers/dry
thunderstorms Monday afternoon mainly across the southern
mountains.

As mid level ridging becomes established just upstream of the
forecast area, a hot and very dry airmass will build into the
forecast through midweek. By Tuesday temperatures will be running
7-10 degrees above climo, with max temps exceeding 105F around St
George and Zion Canyon. This will push the HeatRisk into the
moderate category across most lower elevations across the forecast
area, with local areas of southern Utah potentially reaching the
major category Tuesday and Wednesday. Additionally, a shortwave
trough passing northeast of the area late Tuesday into Wednesday
will enhance northwest winds across areas east of I-15, resulting
in critical fire weather conditions where fuels are sufficiently
dry.

Later in this week this ridge axis will weaken as it shifts
overhead, eventually allowing for a southwesterly flow to become
established across the forecast area by Friday as an upper trough
develops along the Pacific Coast. This will result in a slight
cooling trend, but the increase in southwest flow late in the week
will shift the focus for critical fire weather conditions into
western Utah. As this trough moves inland, associated moisture and
dynamics will bring a chance for precipitation to northern Utah
next weekend.



&&

.AVIATION, Issued 953 PM MDT Sun Jun 14 2026...
SLC, Issued 953 PM MDT Sun Jun 14 2026...
VFR conditions will persist at KSLC through the
TAF period. Winds overnight will remain southeasterly with
periods of light and variable, before northwest winds become re-
established by 16Z Monday.

REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...Lingering showers and
thunderstorms across southern Utah may bring gusty erratic winds
to KCDC and KSGU through 06Z. Otherwise VFR conditions will
prevail across all terminals through the period with general
northwest winds redeveloping Monday morning.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...As high pressure strengthens to the west of Utah,
increasingly warmer and drier conditions will spread into the
area through late week. With enough lingering low-level moisture
still in place, isolated to widely scattered mostly dry showers
and thunderstorms can be expected to develop across southern Utah
today before chances diminish tomorrow as the airmass continues to
dry. Afternoon relative humidities will fall into the single
digits across much of southern and central Utah tomorrow through
at least Thursday, with poor overnight recoveries. A northwesterly
flow will steadily increase before peaking on Wednesday. These
winds will bring critical fire weather conditions today across
portions of central and eastern Utah. Critical fire weather
conditions will continue in these areas through Wednesday. Winds
are expected to trend weaker on Thursday, then increase again out
of the southwest Friday into Saturday as the next storm system
approaches the area and allowing for another period of critical
fire weather conditions. This storm system could bring some high-
based showers and thunderstorms to the area over the weekend.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 9 PM MDT Wednesday for
     UTZ482-488-489-493.

     Red Flag Warning from noon Tuesday to 9 PM MDT Wednesday for
     UTZ496.

WY...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...Seaman
AVIATION...Seaman
FIRE WEATHER...Kruse

For more information from NOAA`s National Weather Service visit...
http://weather.gov/saltlakecity