Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Salt Lake City, UT

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794
FXUS65 KSLC 231014
AFDSLC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
314 AM MST Sat Feb 23 2019

.SYNOPSIS...High pressure aloft will spread into the area
today, with a transition to a more westerly flow Sunday through
the early part of next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM (THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY)...
Pattern shifts zonal during the short term, resulting in a
warming trend. Several rounds of warm advection will bring periods
of thickening mid and high level clouds to northern Utah, most
predominately near the Idaho border, where the chance of
accumulating snowfall cannot be ruled out especially Sunday night
and Monday.

Left exit region of the upper level jet within northwest flow
reaches the Idaho border today coincident with the approach of a
weak shortwave. Then as mentioned earlier heights rise enough to
transition to more of a zonal flow in its wake tomorrow.

Best chance of precipitation in the short term is Sunday night
through Monday and for Salt Lake City northward. Lowering heights
over Washington State will result in a wave propagating east
across Idaho, enhancing warm advection during this period. This is
also when the highest Precipitable Water anomalies will be
targeting the region. This is followed by a cold front across
Idaho Tuesday that at this point looks to remain to our north.

Southerly winds will increase through the short term, helping to
boost temperatures. Winds may become gusty, particularly on
ridges and in favored areas such as southwest Wyoming.

.LONG TERM (AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY)...
Northern Utah is expected to remain on the southern fringe of the
mean storm track through late week, with near zonal flow
transitioning towards low amplitude ridging mid/late week as a
closed system spins up over the PacNW. Continue to favor pattern
evolution depicted by the EC and GEFs ensemble mean, and shied
away from the operational GFS which suggests this trough will
amplify and carve through the area Thursday night into Friday.
Currently a 12 degree spread at H7 exists at KSLC between these
models, and opted to stay on the warm side depicted by the
majority.

Retaining temps 5-10 degrees above climo, and slight chance PoPs far
north/mtns for light precip potential at times each day. Nothing too
notable precip wise however.

&&

.AVIATION...
Operational weather concerns at the KSLC terminal are expected to
remain minimal through the valid TAF period. Southerly winds are
anticipated to remain in place, becoming moderately gusty after
18z. Ceilings are expected to remain above 6000ft AGL.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...None.
WY...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM/AVIATION...Merrill

For more information from NOAA`s National Weather Service visit...
http://weather.gov/saltlakecity

For frequently asked questions about the Area Forecast Discussion
visit...
http://weather.gov/saltlakecity/general/afd_faqs.php



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