073
FXUS65 KSLC 141003
AFDSLC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
403 AM MDT Tue May 14 2024

.SYNOPSIS...A series of storm systems will impact Utah and
southwest Wyoming through Wednesday, bringing less warm and more
unsettled conditions. High pressure will return Thursday and
Friday, bringing a warming and drying trend. Unsettled conditions
are expected to return by early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM (Through 12Z Thursday)...The grazing trough that
pushed a cold front into northern Utah yesterday has moved east
into Wyoming this morning as a second wave slides into Idaho. The
associated cold front is stalled near a KMLF-KEEO line, where some
showers are persisting overnight. In taking a look at satellite
data and observations, the broader area of echoes east of I-15
does not have cloud cover associated with it and is likely chaff,
but the echoes over eastern Utah do appear to be associated with
light showers. CAMs indicate this shower activity will die off
over the next few hours, but have been overly bullish in ending
the shower activity thus far.

As the second shortwave grazes northern Utah during the day today,
the cold front will make its way southward, likely moving into
Arizona this evening. The passage of the trough is expected to
bring another round of showers to areas near the Utah/Idaho
border, but also to areas along the front over central and
southern Utah, particularly over the higher terrain. Gusty
downburst winds will be the main threat with any storms that
develop given the atmospheric profile, but there is also a low
chance of some small hail.

As the second wave exits late tonight into early Wednesday, one
last trailing wave will approach the area, sliding northwest to
southeast across Utah. Thus, the area will see afternoon
convection once again, with the track of this wave bringing the
best coverage to areas east of I-15. These systems and the
associated front will also bring a small amount of cooling to Utah
and southwest Wyoming, though maxes will still average 5F above
seasonal normals for Wednesday, the "coolest" day of the week.

.LONG TERM (After 12Z Thursday)...Big picture of the long term
forecast period is that warmer and largely dry conditions will
prevail across Utah and southwest Wyoming through at least early
next week. Under the influence of the eastern periphery of an
offshore ridge, high pressure will remain the dominant weather
feature over the area which will help to bring continued above
normal temperatures and dry conditions throughout. This will be the
trend through at least Saturday, with the forecast becoming a bit
more uncertain thereafter.

There continues to be a large amount of uncertainty
revolving around the potential influence of a trough over the
forecast area, however, models have been trending toward the eastern
periphery of a ridge remaining the dominant weather feature until
the pattern can transition toward more of a mean trough in the West
as opposed to a mean ridge with troughs attempting to translate
through the mean flow. That said, ensemble means from the EPS and
GEFS paint a similar picture as a trough attempts to dive out of
southern Canada and into the northern U.S. Rockies. The biggest
uncertainty right now appears to revolve around the overall depth of
this trough, with the EPS favoring a much more shallow feature than
the GEFS. Through at least Sunday, ensemble consensus (including the
Canadian ensemble) leans toward a shallower trough that would
dictate only slight cooling over the northern half of the forecast
area. It`s not until early to middle of next week when models begin
favoring a mean trough developing over the western U.S., favoring
cooler and wetter conditions over the forecast area. At this time,
not seeing any potential for incredibly significant weather impacts.

&&

.AVIATION...KSLC...Minimal weather concerns are forecast for the
KSLC terminal through the valid TAF period. Predominantly southerly
flow, with periods of light and variable, are expected through the
morning hours. Northerly flow will return around 17Z and persist
through the day under mid and upper level cloud cover.

.Rest of Utah and Southwest Wyoming...VFR conditions are expected
across the remainder of Utah and southwest Wyoming. Another round of
isolated to scattered showers is expected in the forecast area, with
a focus across the southern half of Utah and the UT/ID border
region. Gusty and erratic outflow winds in excess of 30kts will be
possible with passing showers. Otherwise, winds will favor a north
to northwesterly direction.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...The cold front that moved through the area yesterday
has now stalled over central Utah. As a second storm system
grazes northern Utah later today, the front will be nudged
southward, moving into Arizona Tuesday evening. The boundary will
act as a focus for afternoon and early evening showers and
thunderstorms, with the best coverage over the higher terrain.
There is a chance of gusty downburst winds with any storms that
develop. One last week storm system will move through the area
Wednesday, bringing some additional convection. However, overall
coverage will be less than yesterday and today and should
primarily be focused over higher terrain areas east of I-15. High
pressure will bring a drying and warming trend through at least
Friday, with a dry cold front bringing slight cooling to northern
Utah on Saturday. With the ridge having weakened with this front,
a more unsettled pattern is expected to return for early next
week.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...None.
WY...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/FIRE WEATHER...Traphagan
LONG TERM/AVIATION...Webber

For more information from NOAA`s National Weather Service visit...
http://weather.gov/saltlakecity