802
FXUS66 KSTO 100837
AFDSTO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
137 AM PDT Fri May 10 2024


.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure over the area will bring dry weather with
widespread above normal temperatures through the weekend and well
into next week, with Valley highs in the 90s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Upper troughing continues to build in the Great Basin today with
ridging in the Eastern Pacific extending into the Pacific NW. This
will keep us in the fairly warm and dry pattern throughout the
short term. Temperatures in the Valley will be in the upper 80s
and low 90s with 70s and low 80s in the mountains and foothills
respectively. The Valley can expect to see periods of moderate
HeatRisk over the next few days, warmest Saturday afternoon.

The low in the Great Basin looks to shift west later this morning
which gives an outside chance of showers south of Hwy. 50 in
eastern Tuolumne County. NBM probabilities are sparse and less
than 10% chance for our forecast area so all signs point to there
not being enough lift and moisture to see any impactful
precipitation to form. Monday brings a better chance to see a
shower or two similarly south of Hwy. 50 as a trough makes its
way into the Great Basin. NBM probabilities for thunderstorm
development is low (10-15% chance) and will face similar
challenges as Friday`s weather with it being too dry for anything
significant to form.

&&

.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Tuesday THROUGH Friday)...

Clusters continue to show ridging with zonal flow late week as
the dominant forecast feature through the extended, continuing our
stretch of above normal temperatures and generally dry weather.
Clusters show some uncertainty regarding the strength of the ridge
in the Pacific creating a larger range of possibilities for
afternoon temperatures late next week. The NBM reflects this high
temperature uncertainty, with spread of 10-15 degrees mid to late
week across points of the Valley, making exact forecast details
uncertain at this point. The current forecast has afternoon high
in the upper 80s to mid 90s in the Valley with mainly 70s and 80s
for the mountains and foothills. Clusters hint at a troughing
pattern developing next weekend that may bring cooler temperatures
with light precipitation but the forecast is too far out for any
definitive details at the moment.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions next 24 hours. Local north to northeast surface
wind gusts 15-25 kts thru 20Z, otherwise surface wind gusts less
than 12 kts.
&&

.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$