Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sacramento, CA

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FXUS66 KSTO 182200

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
300 PM PDT Mon Jun 18 2018

Dry with warm daytime temperatures this week, becoming hot Friday
through Sunday.


Large upper low centered over SW Idaho with associated troughing
extending over NorCal. Visible satellite imagery showing extensive
cu/tcu buildups over the mountains of Interior NorCal while
Central Valley remains mostly clear. Higher resolutions models
suggest a slight chance of an afternoon to early evening shower
or thunderstorms over the mountains of Shasta and Plumas counties
and the coastal range. Afternoon temperatures running 9 to 13
degrees warmer in most areas, and highs in the Central Valley will
top out in the 80s to lower 90s. Moderate Delta breeze expected

Offshore upper ridging progged to build and progress inland
through midweek with dry weather and continued above normal
temperatures. Short wave upper troughing skirts through northern
portions of the CWA Wednesday night into Thursday morning. GFS-20
generates some convective precip over the Shasta mountains during
this time frame, while NAM12 and ECMWF-HiRes keep precip threats
north of the forecast area. Mid to upper 90s continue to be
forecast in the Central Valley through Thursday.



Dry and hot conditions expected Friday into the weekend as strong
high pressure moves over Interior NorCal. High temperatures
forecast to be 10 to 15 degrees above normal with 100s in the
Central Valley and 80s to 90s in the foothills and mountains. This
will bring the potential for moderate heat risk for sensitive
groups including the elderly and the very young. Saturday appears
to be the hottest day for most locations. At this time following
GFS20 solution for Monday which shows slight cooling but continued
above normal temperatures.


VFR conds ovr Intr NorCal nxt 24 hrs exc lcl MVFR/IFR conds poss
vcnty Delta in ST btwn 10z-17z. Lcl SWly sfc wnd gsts up to 25 kts
poss vcnty Delta tngt.




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