633
FXUS66 KSTO 171924
AFDSTO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
1124 AM PST Tue Feb 17 2026

For additional details on weather and expected impacts over the
next 7 days, please visit weather.gov/sto/briefing.


.KEY MESSAGES...

 - Brunt of cold storm system impacts the area through today with
   additional rounds of lighter rain and snow on Wednesday into
   Thursday.

 - Major travel impacts in the mountains and foothills continue with
   light snowfall accumulations possible below 1000 feet in
   Shasta County on Wednesday morning.

 - Outside of lingering light mountain showers, brief break in the
   action expected later Thursday into Saturday. Another wet, but
   slightly warmer storm system expected for early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

...Today through Thursday...
Strong, cold storm system associated with deep trough continues
to impact the area today. Since Sunday, widespread rainfall of 1.5
to 3 inches has fallen over the lower elevations, with upwards of
2 to 3 feet of snow above 5000 feet. As of early this afternoon,
snow levels have dropped to between 2000 to 2500 feet as colder
air begins to filter in on backside of trough. Accumulating snow
is impacting Sierra foothill communities. Dangerous travel
conditions continue across long stretches of highways with
whiteout conditions as southerly winds have increased throughout
the day today. Heaviest snow and strongest winds are expected
through tonight. We`ll also be monitoring the potential for
isolated thunderstorms this afternoon as we`re starting to see
some clearing behind the front across the northern Sacramento
Valley. Sounding profile indicate decent 0-6km shear and
instability so will be watching for the potential for a few strong
storms with hail and rotation.

As well as the above mentioned impacts, we`re continuing to
monitor the potential for snow levels to drop even further tonight
into Wednesday morning. Latest-hi res and ensemble guidance shows
the potential for snow levels to drop to around 500 feet across
Shasta County and around 1000 feet in the Sierra foothills. While
the risk of accumulating snow down to locations like Redding and
Auburn remain low, the risk is non-zero (~20% probability of a
half inch or greater). Any additional low snow would continue to
exacerbate travel impacts.

Action becomes more scattered in nature for Wednesday into early
Thursday with showers continuing in the mountains. Another
shortwave drops down from the Pac NW into NorCal on Thursday with
another round of widespread rain and mountain snow as well as
gusty southerly winds on Thursday as another shortwave moves
across NorCal. Rain and snow totals will be less than what we saw
over the past few days.

...Friday - Weekend...
Ensemble guidance in agreement that longwave trough ejects off to
the east by Friday with a brief break in the action for most of
the area through Saturday. Should see improving travel
conditions throughout the day Friday. By Sunday, ensemble
guidance shows another strong trough dropping south near the West
Coast from the Gulf of Alaska and eventually swinging through the
area sometime Tuesday into Wednesday. Exact details remain
uncertain but a pretty good likelihood of widespread rainfall and
mountain snow with another period of gusty southerly winds. This
one looks a bit warmer so generally snow levels around 5000 feet
or above.

&&

.AVIATION...
MVFR/IFR conditions expected in areas of -RA/RA and possible TSRA
at TAF sites through 04z Wednesday followed by a brief break in
precipitation and a return to generally VFR conditions overnight.
Highest chances for TSRA expected between 23z today and 04z
Wednesday. Additional MVFR in isolated -SHRA then possible through
18z Wednesday. Gusty south to west winds expected through 00z
Wednesday, gradually decreasing in the evening and overnight
hours.

IFR/LIFR conditions in SN/+SN expected across the mountains today
followed by primarily scattered -SNSH/SNSH after 06z Wednesday.
Snow levels remain around 2500-3500 feet through the forecast
period, dropping as low as 1000 feet along the Sierra and below
1000 feet across southern Cascades and Shasta County mountains by
Wednesday morning. West-southwest winds remain gusty through 00z
Wednesday with surface wind gusts up to 65 kts at times, then
gradually decreasing overnight.

&&

.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Storm Warning until 10 PM PST Thursday for Burney Basin /
Eastern Shasta County-Motherlode-Mountains Southwestern Shasta
County to Western Colusa County-Northeast Foothills/Sacramento
Valley-Northern Sacramento Valley-Shasta Lake Area / Northern
Shasta County-West Slope Northern Sierra Nevada-Western Plumas
County/Lassen Park.

Wind Advisory until 10 PM PST Thursday for Central Sacramento
Valley-Northern Sacramento Valley-Southern Sacramento Valley.

&&

$$