Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

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FXUS62 KTAE 010601
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
101 AM EST Fri Mar 1 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 806 PM EST Thu Feb 29 2024

Forecast remains on track from the near term discussion below.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Through Friday)
Issued at 353 PM EST Thu Feb 29 2024

Afternoon satellite and surface observations show a 1036-mb high
centered over the TN/OH Valley, cold front draped across the Central
Gulf/Central FL, and mid-latitude cyclone traversing the Plains.
These features are are responsible for mostly cloudy skies areawide
via upper cirrus streaming from the SW and lower stratocumulus
moving semi-clockwise in the lower levels (950-825 mb) through
Apalachee Bay & the Suwannee Valley. Overcast conditions combined
with efficient moisture recovery will make for an unseasonably warm
night as temperatures drop to the 50s, particularly along/south
of the FL stat line. Elevated easterly winds should preclude fog
development and instead, just prompt low stratus during the
overnight/morning hrs.

For tomorrow, attention turns to a batch of rain showers marching
towards the Tri-State area from the Lower MS Valley. Rapid moist
advection ahead of this activity fosters some instability to support
at least a slight chance of thunderstorms during the afternoon. The
best potential is where low-60s dew points overspread our FL and
southernmost GA counties. Some storms may be strong given modeled 0-
6 km bulk shear of 40-50 kts and a peak LLJ of 30+ kts. Gusty winds
and rotating cells would be the primary concerns. Isolated severe
weather is possible. The main questions are how much instability can
be realized, and will there be any mesoscale features (e.g., low
pressure) that form from the associated convection?

The 18Z HRRR has the convection entering the FL Panhandle/SE AL late
tomorrow morning with peak activity in the afternoon around the I-10
corridor. Some cells in the simulated reflectivity field show bowing
segments, which suggests a wind threat while semi-discrete cells
could be capable of brief spin-ups along the coast and offshore. As
for high temperatures, there is likely to be quite the spread from
NW (low/mid 60s) to SE (70s). The lower readings will be from rain-
cooled air.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Friday night through Saturday night)
Issued at 353 PM EST Thu Feb 29 2024

With a shortwave continuing to lift out across the southeast, we`ll
see rain chances begin to decrease from west to east throughout
Saturday. With dew points in the 60s across most of the region,
there is some opportunity for a few strong thunderstorms and gusty
winds. Most of the activity is expected to wind down by Saturday
night. The lack of cold air advection behind this shortwave means
we`ll remain in a moist and conditionally unstable environment, with
dew points remaining in the upper 50s to mid 60s post-shortwave.

Expect overnight temps generally in the mid to upper 50s with
daytime highs generally in the low to mid 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 353 PM EST Thu Feb 29 2024

There is a brief lull in widespread activity in the long term before
another disturbance looks to move through by midweek. With moisture
remaining present and a relatively weak LLJ looking to move across
the region, the possibility for low-end severe is there, but we`ll
need to reassess in the coming days. Otherwise, expect scattered
showers throughout the long term as diurnal instability takes
advantage of conditional large-scale instability as a stationary
boundary sags across the region.

Expect daytime highs generally in the mid 70s to low 80s with
overnight lows generally in the mid 50s to low 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1259 AM EST Fri Mar 1 2024

Ceilings will continue to gradually lower from the east and west,
with KECP, KDHN, and KVLD feeling the impacts first. MVFR
conditions will becoming IFR by mid to late afternoon on Friday as
coverage of showers and a few tsra increases as well. Low cigs
will continue into Friday evening.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 806 PM EST Thu Feb 29 2024

Northeast winds will reach small craft advisory levels mainly west
of Apalachicola tonight into Friday morning, where significant
wave heights will peak around 5 feet. Winds will will decrease and
become southeast by Friday afternoon through early next week, as
a frontal boundary remains draped to the south of the waters.
There is also increasing potential for sea fog this weekend into
early next week.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 353 PM EST Thu Feb 29 2024

Easterly flow will transition to southeast and south through the
upcoming weekend. With southeast and southerly flow developing,
expect a quick transition to a moist and wetter pattern with rain
chances increasing from west to east on Friday and then lingering
into Saturday. Rain chances decrease some on Sunday, but a moist
airmass will remain in place so expect fire weather concerns to
stay low from Friday into and the upcoming weekend. Only concerns
could be the development of patchy fog over the weekend in the
overnight hours, but confidence in fog potential remains low.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 353 PM EST Thu Feb 29 2024

With all rivers below flood stage and not much widespread precip
accumulation expected throughout the next week, there are currently
minimal flooding concerns.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   71  61  76  60 /  60  70  70  20
Panama City   70  62  73  61 /  80  70  60  20
Dothan        64  57  73  59 /  90  70  50  20
Albany        63  55  72  57 /  80  80  60  20
Valdosta      70  60  76  60 /  70  60  70  30
Cross City    78  60  74  58 /  20  40  70  30
Apalachicola  68  62  70  61 /  60  70  70  20

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through late Friday night for FLZ108-112.

     High Rip Current Risk until 4 AM EST /3 AM CST/ early this
     morning for FLZ114-115.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM CST Friday for GMZ750-752-770-
     772.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...IG3
SHORT TERM...Oliver
LONG TERM....Oliver
AVIATION...Camp
MARINE...LF
FIRE WEATHER...Dobbs
HYDROLOGY...Oliver


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