Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KTAE 050223
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
1023 PM EDT Tue Aug 4 2020

.UPDATE...

The overnight forecast is in good shape, with no updates necessary
this evening.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [645 PM EDT]...

.NEAR TERM [Tonight and Wednesday]...

A weak surface trough is currently sitting across southern middle GA
and near Tallahassee. Due to this convergence, showers and a few
thunderstorms are developing along it. Not much lightning right now
but we should see some strengthening in the next hour or two. The
atmosphere is very dry so wouldn`t expect too strong of storms. With
light winds though, some minor flooding under the storms that don`t
move much is possible. Showers will quickly dissipate after sunset.
Lows will be in the lower 70s. A trough to the west continues to
approach on Wednesday with southwesterly winds aloft bringing more
moisture into the area. Convergence between the trough and the east
coast seabreeze will cause higher rain/storm chances in the eastern
half of the area. Highs will be in the lower to mid 90s with heat
index values around 99-102.


.SHORT & LONG TERM [Wednesday Night Through Monday]...

Showers and thunderstorms will be possible each afternoon, with the
greatest coverage across the eastern areas where a remnant stalled
front and the Atlantic seabreeze will interact. Upper level
troughing will continue to lift northeastward, leading to more zonal
flow aloft before ridging slides in over the state from the East
late week into the weekend. While showers and thunderstorms will
still be possible across the eastern areas each afternoon, the
ridging will help raise already warm temperatures well into the mid
90s Friday through Sunday.


.AVIATION...
[Through 00Z Thursday]

VFR conditions and light winds through the TAF period. Isolated
thunderstorms are possible again Wed afternoon but it`s too far
out for exact locations. A few storms may get near VLD this
evening and amendments will occur if needed.


.MARINE...

Favorable boating conditions are expected through the next
several days with winds generally near or below 10 knots and seas
around 1 foot. Locally higher winds and seas will be possible
around thunderstorms.


.FIRE WEATHER...
Isolated showers and thunderstorms are forecast again for Wednesday
and Thursday. Moisture will be increased through the next few days
although RH values will remain above minimum thresholds. 20ft winds
remain light with transport winds around 10 MPH out of the southwest.
Fog is not expected.


.HYDROLOGY...

There are no flooding concerns over the next several days.


.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur (while following all local, state, and CDC guidelines) by
calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   74  94  73  96  73 /  10  20  10  40  10
Panama City   78  90  77  91  77 /   0  10   0  20  10
Dothan        73  94  72  95  72 /  10  20   0  20  10
Albany        74  95  74  96  74 /  10  30  10  40  10
Valdosta      74  93  73  94  73 /  20  30  20  60  20
Cross City    75  92  74  93  74 /  10  30  20  60  30
Apalachicola  78  90  77  90  76 /  10  20  10  20  20

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Harrigan
NEAR TERM...LN
SHORT TERM...Merrifield
LONG TERM...Merrifield
AVIATION...LN
MARINE...Merrifield
FIRE WEATHER...LN
HYDROLOGY...Merrifield



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