Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KTAE 022325
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
725 PM EDT Sat Jul 2 2022

.AVIATION...

[Through 00z Monday] Lingering scattered convection will gradually
diminish this evening with VFR conditions expected away from
convection. Winds will also be light away from convection. On
Sunday, another round of scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms is expected across the area.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [324 PM EDT]...

.NEAR TERM [Through Sunday]...

Showers and thunderstorms will continue across the tri-state
region this afternoon but diminish into the evening and tonight.
Heavy rain, isolated flooding, and gusty winds will be possible
with these storms.

Overall, the southerly winds on the western periphery of the
Bermuda high will continue into tomorrow across the CWA. PW values
will remain elevated (2.1-2.2 inches) and the wet pattern will
persist. Similar to today, expect showers and thunderstorms to
develop over the marine area early in the morning, spread onshore
near the coast in the morning and develop across the remainder of
the region during the afternoon and evening. These storms will
continue to be efficient rain producers and this along with slow
moving storms will allow for heavy rain and localized flooding
again on Sunday. A few storms may also produce gusty winds. Highs
will be in the upper 80s to lower 90s with lows in the lower to
mid 70s.


.SHORT TERM [Sunday Night Through Monday Night]...

Upper-level ridging will be building to our west. But the Bermuda
High (surface pressure over the Atlantic) will continue to pull
in southerly flow and ample moisture with PWAT values remaining
around 2 inches. Showers and thunderstorms will begin over the
waters and move inland through the morning and increase in
coverage throughout the day. PoPs for Monday range from 50%-70% as
the day progresses, with the highest chances along and north of
I-10 towards the I-75 corridor. It will be warm on Monday with
afternoon Highs in the low 90s but feeling around 100 degrees
(mainly in the FL panhandle and SE Big Bend). Morning Lows will be
in the low/mid 70s.


.LONG TERM [Tuesday Through Saturday]...

Upper level ridging will continue to build in from the west
through the week. Surface winds will generally be from the
south/southwest and remain light and calm. Tropical moisture will
still be at play during the long term, continuing the daily shower
and thunderstorm activity. Afternoon PoPs for the first half of
the long term range around 40%-60% with higher values along and
north of I-10 as the morning showers/thunderstorms move further
inland. As the week goes on, the rain chances decrease to about
30%-50% as the upper level High builds over the region. Yet, we
will still maintain the surface southerly flow.

Temperatures for the long term will be seasonal with Highs in the
low 90s and morning Lows in the mid 70s. Yet, afternoon heat
indices are expected to be at 105-107 degrees for the Long Term,
mainly in the SE Big Bend counties as afternoon RH values are
forecast to be above 65%.


.MARINE...

South to southwest winds of 5 to 10 knots continue over the
waters over the next several days. Seas will be around 1 to 2
feet. Daily chances for thunderstorms continue with the best
chance being in the morning hours and especially over the
nearshore waters.


.FIRE WEATHER...

Numerous showers and thunderstorms continue to be expected into
early next week that will bring wetting rain to the region. This
will keep relative humidity values on the higher side with values
only expected in the 50-60 percent range during the afternoons.
20ft winds will be light outside of any thunderstorms. Patchy fog
will be possible Sunday morning. Scattered low dispersion values
(less then 20) will be possible across the tri-state region on
Monday.


.HYDROLOGY...

An abundantly moist air mass will continue to lead to
thunderstorms being efficient rain producers. Thunderstorms will
have the capability of producing high rain rates, which could lead
to urban and isolated flash flooding, especially if storms are
slow-moving.


.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur (while following all local, state, and CDC guidelines) by
calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   74  91  76  90  76 /  30  60  30  70  40
Panama City   77  88  78  87  77 /  30  50  30  50  40
Dothan        72  89  73  89  74 /  40  70  20  60  30
Albany        74  92  75  91  75 /  40  70  30  70  40
Valdosta      72  91  74  90  74 /  40  70  30  70  30
Cross City    74  90  74  89  74 /  30  60  40  70  40
Apalachicola  77  88  78  86  77 /  30  50  30  50  40

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Fieux
SHORT TERM...Montgomery
LONG TERM...Montgomery
AVIATION...DVD
MARINE...Montgomery
FIRE WEATHER...Fieux
HYDROLOGY...Montgomery


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