000
FXUS62 KTAE 211935
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
235 PM EST Mon Jan 21 2019

.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...

Another chilly night ahead but not as cold as this morning. Winds
will swing around to the east and some clouds will be moving in
ahead of the next developing low pressure system. Lows will range
from near freezing north to the lower and mid 40s along the
immediate coast.

.SHORT TERM [Tuesday Through Wednesday Night]...

An upper trough will be digging into the desert southwest on Tuesday
with increasing clouds over the local area out ahead of this trough.
Moisture will start to increase at the lower levels as winds start
to shift to the south. With weak isentropic lift and shallow
moisture, a few rain showers are possible in SE AL and the central
FL Panhandle.

The trough and the associated cold front continue to move east on
Wednesday with rain chances slowly increasing from the west through
the day. A back door front of sorts will also bring moisture east to
west and may bring a few showers into our far eastern GA counties.
Winds finally go southerly at the surface Wednesday afternoon with
dewpoints rising potentially into the lower 60s overnight. With a
strong ridge in place over the Atlantic, the front will be
relatively slow moving with multiple waves of low pressure
developing along it. 1 to 2 inches of rain is forecast with locally
higher amounts likely. Although the 500mb trough and lift are well
behind the surface front, the 850mb lift and convergence along the
front will be sufficiently strong. There seems to be a narrow window
from 0-6zish (in Tallahassee-earlier to the west and later to the
east) for strong to severe storms. This is when the southerly flow
can break the low level cap giving at least a few hundred J/KG of
CAPE, although most of it will be elevated. The NAM shows a 50-60 kt
LLJ over parts of the area but both GFS/NAM soundings show 40-50kts
of low level and bulk shear. This will need to be monitored as we
get closer to the event.

Highs Tuesday will rise into the mid 50s to upper 60s and may get
into the lower 70s ahead of the front on Wednesday. With increasing
clouds Tuesday night, lows will only drop to the 50s. Wed night the
lows will be impacted by the timing of the front, with a gradient of
lower 40s in SE AL to around 60 in the panhandle.

.LONG TERM [Thursday Through Monday]...

By Thursday morning, the front and associated precip should be
exiting the eastern half of the area. A broad upper trough will keep
a cooler northwesterly flow across the area until the next front
moves through. Highs Thu-Mon will generally be in the 50s with lows
falling back to the 30s. The next front/trough will approach on
Sunday with significant model differences on timing, placement and
strength. Will keep the blended pops for now given the uncertainty.

&&

.AVIATION...
[Through 18Z Tuesday]

We will see increasing low level cloudiness moving in from the west
toward the end of the TAF cycle as winds swing around to become
easterly ahead of the next cold front. A brief period of MVFR cigs
may occur at DHN and ECP before 18z. Otherwise, VFR conditions will
prevail.

&&

.MARINE...

Winds will increase overnight and reach Small Craft Advisory
criteria after 6z. Winds remain around 20 to 25 knots through at
least Wednesday night but the Advisory may need to be extended
through Thursday. Seas will also slowly increase with the highest
seas expected Wednesday through Wednesday night at heights of 6 to
8 feet with occasional seas up to 10 feet. Widespread showers and
a few thunderstorms are possible Wednesday night.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

High dispersions are possible in the Eastern FL Big Bend tomorrow afternoon.
Otherwise no fire weather concerns. Fog is unlikely.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

Rivers will continue to slowly subside through Wednesday with no
river flood warnings currently in effect. 1 to 2 inches of rainfall
is expected Wednesday night and this will likely bring many rivers
back into Action Stage and possibly bring a few back into Minor
Flood.


&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   36  63  54  72  52 /   0   0  10  40  90
Panama City   42  62  59  69  49 /   0  20  10  80  90
Dothan        34  54  50  70  44 /   0   0  10  80  90
Albany        33  55  49  72  50 /   0   0  20  40  90
Valdosta      35  61  52  74  56 /   0   0  10  30  90
Cross City    37  69  56  75  60 /   0   0  10  30  90
Apalachicola  46  62  59  68  52 /   0  20  10  50  90

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM Tuesday to 7 AM EST Thursday for
     Coastal Waters From Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola Fl
     out to 20 Nm-Coastal waters from Mexico Beach to
     Apalachicola FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Mexico Beach
     to Okaloosa Walton County Line FL out 20 NM-Waters from
     Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters
     from Apalachicola to Mexico Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-
     Waters from Mexico Beach to Okaloosa Walton County Line FL
     from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Barry
SHORT TERM...LN
LONG TERM...LN
AVIATION...Barry
MARINE...LN
FIRE WEATHER...McD
HYDROLOGY...LN