083
FXUS62 KTAE 171727
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
1227 PM EST Tue Feb 17 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1221 PM EST Tue Feb 17 2026

- Morning fog becomes increasingly more likely with well-above
  normal temperatures expected mid to late this week (record to
  near record highs).

- Rain chances steadily increase later this week. The best
  potential is Friday-Saturday from an approaching cold front.

- Post-frontal cooldown arrives early next week as forecast low
  temperatures drop to the 30s and a potential first (light)
  freeze since early February.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 917 AM EST Tue Feb 17 2026

Given ample sunshine, have elected to bump temperatures up a bit
more with this morning`s updates. That puts much of the area in
the lower-middle 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 243 AM EST Tue Feb 17 2026

Satellite and surface observations show a building upper ridge from
the west with high pressure anchored across the SE US. This synoptic
pattern supports dry weather, warming temperatures, and increasing
potential for fog starting late tonight into early Wednesday
morning.

Today`s high temperatures soar into the mid 70s away from
the immediate coast. Moistening southeast winds steadily become
southerly this afternoon as the aforementioned high shifts off the
Eastern Seaboard. Would not be surprised to see a seabreeze
develop. The influx of maritime air prompts lows in the low 50s
under thickening cloud cover. Fog looks to also focus over the FL
Panhandle & SE US towards the end of this period.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 243 AM EST Tue Feb 17 2026

Strengthening upper ridge overhead yields well above-normal
temperatures such that widespread forecast inland highs in the low
80s will challenge daily records Thursday-Saturday. Afternoon
seabreezes will keep the coastal strip relatively cooler. Daily
morning fog is likely as the low-level airmass continues
moistening. The best fog potential appears to be over the cool
shelf waters of Apalachee Bay that then advects inland to the FL
Big Bend.

A series of disturbances rippling across the northern stream jet
combined with some low-level confluent flow aim to force some
locally spotty showers mid-week. By Friday, a frontal boundary
anchors itself across the Appalachians and should provide a greater
focus for showers with a slight chance of thunderstorms. However,
the initially inherited NBM rain chances were too high given that
the upper-level forcing is modeled well to our north, so used a
blend of the CONSAll to tone down max PoPs to the 40-50% range
mainly over the NW portions of the Tri-State area.

The aforementioned front then becomes stationary over the region
this weekend, thus making for potentially unsettled weather. It is
not until a trailing shortwave phases with the mean upper-trough
across the Midwest to act as kicker system for the front to finally
resume its forward motion and fully clear the Tri-State area some
time Sunday evening. A notable cooldown follows early next week with
highs in the 50s & 60s and widespread lows in the 30s. The latter is
something to monitor as many locations are slated to flirt with the
first (light) freeze since early February - preceded by a prolonged
period of anomalous warmth.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1221 PM EST Tue Feb 17 2026

VFR ceilings prevail this afternoon at most TAF sites with the
lone excepting being KECP, where they`ll remain MVFR the rest of
the afternoon. MVFR ceilings are forecast to develop after sunset
tonight across the region with bouts of IFR to perhaps LIFR
ceilings for KECP and KDHN. Some reduction in visibility is also
likely for KECP and KDHN. MVFR ceilings are forecast to prevail
much of the day Wednesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 243 AM EST Tue Feb 17 2026

Generally favorable boating conditions prevail the next few days as
a ridge of high pressure fosters gentle to moderate breezes.
Easterly winds today turn more southerly tomorrow. Expect an
increase in winds out of the southwest late Saturday to cautionary
levels ahead of stalled cold front some where along or east of the
Appalachians. Mariners should also be on the lookout for sea fog mid
to late week, particularly over Apalachee Bay. Lastly, appreciable
rain chances return to the forecast Friday and Saturday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 243 AM EST Tue Feb 17 2026

Little to no rain is forecast the next couple of days despite
increasing moisture from southerly winds off the Gulf. The main
highlights through mid-to-late week are increasing chances for
morning fog development and well above-normal temperatures.
Potential for showers steadily rise each successive day after today,
but higher probabilities hold off until Friday.

Low dispersions are forecast along coastal Apalachee Bay this
afternoon thanks to a cool, stable marine layer influence. By
Wednesday, pockets of high dispersions materialize in the Suwannee
Valley where very warm temperatures should foster effective daytime
mixing with plenty of thermal lift. Strengthening southwesterlies
ahead of a frontal boundary on Thursday yield greater coverage of

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 243 AM EST Tue Feb 17 2026

Minimal rainfall is expected over the next 7 days. The best chances
are Friday-Sunday, but current forecast amounts are generally about
an inch or less.

The Tri-State continues to reel from moderate to extreme drought
conditions with low water/stream levels across the board.
Unfortunately, there is no improvement on the horizon.

For more local drought information & statements, visit the following
websites:
weather.gov/tae/LocalDrought
weather.gov/tae/DroughtInformationStatement

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   76  52  77  60 /   0   0  10  10
Panama City   71  56  74  61 /   0   0  10  20
Dothan        74  53  75  61 /   0   0  10  10
Albany        74  52  75  58 /   0   0  10  10
Valdosta      77  52  77  58 /   0   0  10  10
Cross City    80  51  78  55 /   0   0  10  10
Apalachicola  66  56  70  60 /   0   0  10  20

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk until 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ this evening for
     FLZ114.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...IG3
LONG TERM....IG3
AVIATION...Reese
MARINE...IG3
FIRE WEATHER...IG3
HYDROLOGY...IG3