000
FXUS62 KTAE 311523
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
1123 AM EDT Tue Mar 31 2020

...SEVERE WEATHER EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS THE REGION...

.NEAR TERM [Through Today]...

A positively tilted short wave trough axis was lined up along the
Mississippi River at 14Z. Associate surface low pressure was
centered over central AL with a warm front extending eastward from
it across southern AL to just south of an Albany to Waycross GA
line. South of the front, dew points are in the upper 60s to lower
70s. The 12Z KTAE sounding showed quite a bit of dry air below 500
mb. However, model soundings from the HRRR show this column
moistening sufficiently to allow instability supportive of severe
weather. About a day`s worth of HRRR runs show a 50-knot low level
jet developing over the forecast area during the afternoon. Strong
mid level flow, about 80 knots, working through the base of the
trough as well. Bulk shear should be in the 50-60 knot range.
Hodographs are fairly straight, suggesting some splitting cells with
left and right movers. All severe modes are still in play, however.
A tornado watch is in effect for the northwestern half of the
forecast area fro Turner County southwest to Decatur and then on to
Walton County and points northwest. Wind damage has already occurred
upstream in AL with at least one cell showing a TDS.

In addition to the severe threat, the strong onshore flow warrants a
high risk for rip currents, although there shouldn`t be anyone in
the water with all beaches closed. Finally, strengthening low level
jet will allow sufficient low level winds to mix down to the surface
to justify leaving the wind advisory in effect.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [652 AM EDT]...

.SHORT TERM [Tomorrow Through Thursday]...

In the upper levels, a ridge will build into the Southeast by
Wednesday night. At the surface, high pressure will be over the
region with a much cooler, drier air mass in place. POPs will be
near zero with little to no cloud cover. Temps will be noticeably
cooler and more seasonable with highs in the lower 70s tomorrow.
Thursday highs will be in the mid to upper 70s. Lows tomorrow night
will be in the mid to upper 40s.


.LONG TERM [Thursday Night Through Tuesday]...

In the upper levels, the weak ridge over the Southeast will
strengthen on Monday and Tuesday. At the surface, easterly winds
Friday will become more southerly on Saturday. POPs will begin to
increase on Saturday with a slight chance for showers as moisture
returns. The best chance for a shower or thunderstorm is Sunday and
Monday afternoon/evening with POPs of 20 to 40 percent. Highs will
be mainly in the lower 80s. Lows will be in the 50s and lower 60s.


.AVIATION...
[Through 12Z Wednesday]

Scattered LIFR to MVFR conditions will lift to MVFR, drift north
and scatter through the morning and early afternoon. Showers and
thunderstorms will spread into the Panhandle later this morning,
followed by a powerful line of storms moving west to east through
the region in the afternoon. Strong winds are expected today ahead
of the thunderstorms, with sustained winds near 20 knots and
gusts around 35 knots.


.MARINE...

Southerly winds will increase significantly today ahead of an
approaching system. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect through
Wednesday morning for sustained winds in excess of 20 knots. Severe
storms are possible mainly this afternoon and evening. Strong
northerly winds (20 to 25 kt) are expected tonight after the cold
front passes. Late in the week expect light easterly winds.


.FIRE WEATHER...

High dispersion indices are expected today ahead of numerous showers
and thunderstorms expected to arrive later this afternoon. Winds
could gust as high as 30 to 40 mph at times. High dispersion indices
will continue once again tomorrow, though Red Flag conditions are
not expected over the next several days.


.HYDROLOGY...

The best chance for rain will be today as a more substantial cold
front moves through. Another chance for rain is likely this weekend.
Forecast rainfall totals are one inch or less for the region over
the next five days.


.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is requested. Spotters should safely report
significant weather conditions and/or damage by calling the office or
tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. Please relay any information to the
NWS while following all local, state and CDC guidelines.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   83  50  74  48  79 /  80  40   0   0   0
Panama City   78  52  73  53  76 /  80  10   0   0   0
Dothan        79  46  70  47  76 /  90  10   0   0   0
Albany        79  47  70  46  75 /  90  20   0   0   0
Valdosta      81  49  71  47  77 /  90  70   0   0   0
Cross City    81  53  75  48  79 /  30  50   0   0   0
Apalachicola  79  52  72  55  73 /  60  10   0   0   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Wind Advisory until 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ this evening for Calhoun-
     Central Walton-Coastal Bay-Coastal Dixie-Coastal Franklin-
     Coastal Gulf-Coastal Jefferson-Coastal Taylor-Coastal
     Wakulla-Gadsden-Holmes-Inland Bay-Inland Dixie-Inland
     Franklin-Inland Gulf-Inland Jefferson-Inland Taylor-Inland
     Wakulla-Jackson-Lafayette-Leon-Liberty-Madison-North Walton-
     South Walton-Washington.

     High Rip Current Risk through this evening for Coastal Bay-
     Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-South Walton.

GA...Wind Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for Baker-Ben Hill-
     Berrien-Brooks-Calhoun-Clay-Colquitt-Cook-Decatur-Dougherty-
     Early-Grady-Irwin-Lanier-Lee-Lowndes-Miller-Mitchell-
     Quitman-Randolph-Seminole-Terrell-Thomas-Tift-Turner-Worth.

AL...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for Coffee-Dale-Geneva-
     Henry-Houston.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT Wednesday for Apalachee Bay
     or Coastal Waters From Keaton Beach to Ochlockonee River FL
     out to 20 Nm-Coastal Waters From Ochlockonee River to
     Apalachicola Fl out to 20 Nm-Coastal waters from Suwannee
     River to Keaton Beach FL out 20 NM-Waters from Suwannee
     River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM CDT Wednesday for Coastal
     waters from Mexico Beach to Apalachicola FL out 20 NM-
     Coastal waters from Mexico Beach to Okaloosa Walton County
     Line FL out 20 NM-Waters from Apalachicola to Mexico Beach
     FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Mexico Beach to Okaloosa
     Walton County Line FL from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Wool
SHORT TERM...McD
LONG TERM...McD
AVIATION...Harrigan
MARINE...McD
FIRE WEATHER...Harrigan
HYDROLOGY...McD