Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KTAE 270014
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
814 PM EDT Mon Oct 26 2020

.UPDATE...

The overnight forecast looks on track and no updates are needed.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [730 PM EDT]...

.NEAR TERM [Through Tuesday]...
The upper-level ridge that has remained parked over the western
Atlantic will continue to do so throughout the near term. This will
suppress any widespread convection from developing even with low
level moisture present. However, as Tropical Storm Zeta continues to
move northward through the Gulf of Mexico, a surge of moisture
moving northward on its eastern side could moisten the atmospheric
column enough to produce steady showers and some isolated
thunderstorms along counties adjacent to the Gulf of Mexico. Precip
chances will be greatest from Tuesday afternoon onward. Overnight
lows will be in the high 60s to low 70s, and daytime highs will be
in the low to mid 80s.


.SHORT TERM [Tuesday Night Through Thursday]...
Rather strong subtropical ridge will be in place along the
northeastern Gulf Coast Tuesday evening. Tropical Storm Zeta is
forecast to be over the southern Gulf of Mexico on the
southwestern Flank of the ridge. A very deep upper trough/closed
low over the Desert Southwest will begin to eject northeastward
Tuesday night. As the trough ejects, it will pull Zeta northwards
towards the central Gulf Coast. Zeta will likely make landfall
late Wednesday or early Thursday and move rapidly northeastward
into the southern Appalachians by midday Thursday.

Tuesday night into early Wednesday, most rainfall will be confined
to the western portion of the forecast area as tropical moisture
surges north, with the subtropical ridge suppressing activity
further east. Showers and thunderstorms will increase (especially
over the western zones) through the day on Wednesday and into
Wednesday night as Zeta approached coast. Best rain chances are
likely Wednesday night into early Thursday as the circulation
makes its closest approach to the forecast area. Locally heavy
rainfall will be possible, but overall amounts will be limited
due to the fast motion.

The low-level jet to the east of Zeta will spread
across the western half of the area early Thursday. There will
likely be just enough instability to support some rotating cells
and a few tornadoes. Additional hazards for with the system will
include high surf and possible minor flooding along the Panhandle
beaches into Apalachee Bay. Gusty winds will also be possible
depending on how close the circulation ends of getting to the
forecast area. The exact impacts of Zeta on the local area will
continue to be refined as the track and intensity forecast becomes
more certain.


.LONG TERM [Thursday Night Through Monday]...
The upper trough which picks up and ejects Zeta to the northeast
will itself move quickly eastward towards the Mid-Atlantic coast
on Thursday night into Friday. This will support a few more
showers Thursday night across the area ahead of the trailing cold
front. Thereafter, a much drier airmass will settle into the Deep
South for Friday and beyond. Temperatures will be slightly cooler,
but still only near seasonal normals as a broad upper ridge
quickly replaces the exiting trough. Generally dry conditions will
continue through Saturday. There is some potential for an increase
in moisture late Sunday into Monday as another trough approaches,
but uncertainty remains high.


.AVIATION...
[Through 00Z Wednesday]

MVFR ceilings beginning around 06z at VLD and spreading west to
include ECP by 10z. IFR ceilings will then be possible for all
terminals except ECP through mid morning. Showers and
thunderstorms are possible after 18z with higher PoPs for the
western counties.


.MARINE...
Conditions will begin to deteriorate tonight over the coastal
waters as the gradient tightens between Zeta to the south and high
pressure to the north. While winds will hover at or just below
Small Craft Advisory levels through Tuesday night, seas will
continue to increase as swell from Zeta approach. The worst
conditions are likely Wednesday night into early Thursday before
winds and seas begin to subside as Zeta moves well inland.


.FIRE WEATHER...
There are no hazardous fire weather conditions expected at this
time.  Rain chances are expected to increase through mid-week as
tropical storm Zeta moves west of our region.


.HYDROLOGY...
Rainfall amounts associated with Zeta are expected to be limited
by the fast motion as it moves quickly northeast across the
Southeast. Currently expecting the highest amounts over the
Panhandle into Southeastern Alabama with 1 to 2 inches possible.
Locally higher amounts are likely, but widespread flooding or
significant river impacts do not appear likely at this time.


.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur (while following all local, state, and CDC guidelines) by
calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   70  85  72  86  74 /  10  30  30  40  30
Panama City   71  84  73  83  75 /  10  50  30  40  40
Dothan        67  81  69  81  71 /  10  50  40  60  50
Albany        67  82  69  83  72 /  10  30  20  40  30
Valdosta      68  85  70  86  72 /  10  30  20  40  20
Cross City    72  88  72  89  73 /  10  30  30  30  20
Apalachicola  73  81  74  82  75 /  10  40  20  40  30

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk until 4 AM EDT Tuesday for Coastal
     Franklin.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Wool
NEAR TERM...Oliver
SHORT TERM...Camp
LONG TERM...Camp
AVIATION...Montgomery
MARINE...Camp
FIRE WEATHER...Bunker
HYDROLOGY...Camp


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