000
FXUS62 KTAE 290758
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
258 AM EST Wed Jan 29 2020

.NEAR TERM [Through Today]...

A shortwave and accompanying surface low will move into the
Southeast through the day today. The surface low will drift south
into the Gulf towards a more unstable airmass, while the shortwave
continues through the continental Southeast. Deep layer isentropic
ascent from the surface (offshore) through about 8kft (inland) will
result in a large rain shield traversing the region from mid-morning
through the evening. Rainfall amounts will generally remain below a
quarter of an inch, with the heaviest amounts closer to the surface
based storms well offshore.

Highs will be capped in the 50s in locations where the rain arrives
earliest, and should reach the low to mid 60s towards the Suwannee
Valley region.


.SHORT TERM [Tonight through Friday]...

A progressive pattern will remain in place this period as our area
is on the backside of the departing low pressure system tonight.
High pressure will quickly build in with zonal flow aloft. This
high pressure will be shortlived as the next low pressure system
moves into the area Friday. Showers will begin to affect our
western areas Thursday night then overspread the area Friday. It
appears the rainfall will more more abundant and widespread Friday
as compared to today but rainfall amounts with both these systems
will average around an inch. Highs will remain mild with readings
in the 60s, a little cooler Friday as more clouds and rainfall
is expected.


.LONG TERM [Friday Night Through Wednesday]...

Light rain will linger into Friday night as the low pressure area
departs the region. Some clouds will remain into Saturday and
isolated showers could occur Sunday in association with the upper
low as it moves by as well. Then high pressure and ridging build
in late Sunday into Monday with a period of dry conditions. Even
that is shortlived as the next frontal system brings a chance for
rainfall Tuesday and Wednesday. Highs in the 60s this weekend will
warm into the 70s for the start of the next work week.Lows in the
40s this weekend will warm to the 50s by Tuesday morning.

&&

.AVIATION...
[Through 06Z Thursday]

A large area of light to moderate rain will move into the region
today. Mid-level cloud deck will gradually lower to MVFR later
this afternoon, and then to IFR overnight. Fog is not currently
expected, but visibilities will likely be reduced in rain.

&&

.MARINE...

An area of low pressure will travel through the coastal waters
today with winds and seas increasing as a result, with advisory
levels west of Apalachicola and cautionary levels east of this
area to the Ochlockonee River. These levels will decrease this
evening with the departure of the low pressure area but near
cautionary levels will continue for the next several days.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Hazardous fire weather conditions are not expected over the next
several days, with wet conditions expected today and again on Friday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

An inch or so of rainfall is expected with two systems that will
affect the region through Friday night. This weekend into early
next week, dry conditions will prevail. Towards the middle part of
next week, another system will encroach upon the southeast US. No
widespread flooding is expected over the next week.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   59  44  66  49  64 /  80  50   0  20  60
Panama City   58  46  65  52  63 /  90  30   0  30  70
Dothan        54  42  61  47  56 /  80  30   0  30  70
Albany        57  43  62  47  55 /  70  60   0  20  70
Valdosta      61  45  64  49  64 /  80  80   0  20  60
Cross City    62  47  68  50  69 /  60  70   0  10  50
Apalachicola  61  47  63  53  64 /  90  40   0  30  60

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM this morning to 6 PM CST this
     evening for Coastal waters from Mexico Beach to
     Apalachicola FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Mexico Beach
     to Okaloosa Walton County Line FL out 20 NM-Waters from
     Apalachicola to Mexico Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters
     from Mexico Beach to Okaloosa Walton County Line FL from 20
     to 60 NM.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Harrigan
SHORT TERM...Scholl
LONG TERM...Scholl
AVIATION...Harrigan
MARINE...Scholl
FIRE WEATHER...Harrigan
HYDROLOGY...Scholl