013
FXUS62 KTBW 201834
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
234 PM EDT Mon Jul 20 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Tropical Depression #2 in the eastern Gulf is currently moving
  slowly to the northwest a turn toward the west away from the
  Florida peninsula is expected some time tomorrow.

- Unsettled weather will continue today. Strong gusty winds,
  locally heavy rainfall, and frequent lightning are likely.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 228 PM EDT Mon Jul 20 2026


Showers and storms continue this afternoon as Tropical Depression 2
churns in the eastern Gulf. A few breaks in the clouds today have
allowed for a little extra heating which has led to some of the
current afternoon thudnerstorms to be more robust. Strong gusty
winds and frequent lightning have been common as the storms move
quickly to the north. TD2 will continue to drift slowly to the
northwest today before turning more westward sometime tomorrow. With
the turn taking TD2 further from Florida west coast, showers and
storms will likely be confined to the immediate coast and north of
I4 tomorrow. By Wednesday, dry air begins to filter in which will
limit rain chances for most of the forecast area. Unfortunately,
with the limited rain chances, temperatures will once again reach
into the mid to upper 90s by the end of the week into the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 228 PM EDT Mon Jul 20 2026

Fast moving showers and storms likely through the remainder of the
afternoon. Many storms observed so far have been gusty with frequent
lightning. Conditions begin to clear overnight, with a few showers
lingering especially along the coast. Gusty, southwest winds
expected tomorrow, though shower activity will be less.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 228 PM EDT Mon Jul 20 2026

Hazardous marine conditions continue with strong gusty winds,
scattered showers and storms and high seas expected for the
remainder of the day into the evening. Conditions begin to clear
Wednesday afternoon.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 228 PM EDT Mon Jul 20 2026

Abundant low level moisture will hold over the region for the next
several days which will keep minimum afternoon relative humidity
values above critical levels.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  81  89  80  92 /  40  30  10  10
FMY  79  92  77  92 /  20  10  10  20
GIF  77  93  75  95 /  10  30  10  10
SRQ  80  91  79  91 /  40  30  10  10
BKV  76  93  74  94 /  20  30  10  10
SPG  80  89  80  90 /  50  40  10  10

&&

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Tuesday: 7
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Wednesday: 7

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
     https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through Tuesday evening for Coastal
     Charlotte-Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Lee-Coastal Manatee-
     Coastal Sarasota-Pinellas.

Gulf waters...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Tuesday for Coastal waters
     from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 NM-Coastal
     waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 NM-
     Tampa Bay waters-Waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL
     out 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee
     River FL out 20 to 60 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT Tuesday for Coastal waters
     from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 NM-Waters from
     Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 to 60 NM.


&&

$$

DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Pearce
DECISION SUPPORT...Hubbard