Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL

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FXUS62 KTBW 211842
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
242 PM EDT Sat May 21 2022

.DISCUSSION...
Long wave trough from eastern Canada to the central plains slips
eastward through Sun while keeping southwesterly flow aloft much of
the southeast U.S. and Gulf of Mexico...with weak short wave
troughs tracking through. At the surface high pressure from the
Atlantic ridges west across north FL. These features will continue
to stream moisture rich air across the area through Sun. Forecast
PWAT values run 1.5 inches and above...with swaths near 2 inches
at times.

Ample moisture along with energy supplied by a short wave trough
will maintain the possibility of locally heavy rainfall and storms
that may reach strong to severe criteria. The main threats will be
gusty damaging winds...hail...and minor flooding. Convection winds
down overnight but then begins to form up again Sun morning. However
the deepest moisture and the short wave trough starts to depart so
coverage will be trending down during the day.

Mon through Sat: The low wave trough tracks east and dampens out
with ridging building over the southeast U.S. and the Gulf through
midweek. During the last half of the week a trough over the
central plains deepens as it moves...stretching from the Great
Lakes to the eastern Gulf of Mexico by Sat. The Atlantic high
pressure ridge axis lifts up along the AL/GA/FL border until Wed
when to begins to slide southeastward as a frontal
boundary...accompanying the upper trough...approaches from the
west and slips into FL.

The week begins with a more summer like pattern...southeasterly
flow prevails with afternoon sea breezes and moisture enough for
isolated to scattered showers and storms. Moisture begins to
increase toward the end of the week with scattered to occasionally
numerous showers/storms going into the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
21/18Z. Limited low clouds continue MVFR at a couple of terminals
but anticipate prevailing VFR clouds. However...SHRA and TSRA/CB will
generate brief MVFR/LCL IFR VSBY/CIGS TIL 04Z with the best chances
late afternoon. E or SE winds become SW during the afternoon...light
mostly E overnight...then SE and increasing AFT 14-15Z.

&&

.MARINE...
Periods of exercise caution continue on most waters through Sun
for winds up to 20 knots...but higher near thunderstorms. High
pressure currently across the waters lifts north for early to mid
week with a relaxing gradient...allowing winds along with seas to
diminish.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
No concerns for the next few days. Moisture will adequate to
preclude low humidity issues and to support showers and storms.
Mon will see some locally high dispersions.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
TPA  75  91  77  93 /  40  30  20  40
FMY  74  93  75  95 /  40  30  10  40
GIF  72  91  74  93 /  60  40  10  40
SRQ  73  90  74  91 /  40  20  20  30
BKV  69  92  70  93 /  30  30  20  40
SPG  76  90  77  90 /  40  20  20  30

&&

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Today: 7
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Tomorrow: 7

For Additional Information On Sea Breeze Regimes go to
https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.
&&

$$

09/Rude


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