Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL

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FXUS62 KTBW 171112
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
712 AM EDT Fri Aug 17 2018

.AVIATION...
17/12Z TAFs. VFR prevail although SCT-NMRS TSRA form AFT 19Z-20Z
with PSBL MVFR/LCL IFR. Light winds become SE and increase some
during the morning and CONT for the afternoon...except shifting
to onshore at TPA/PIE/SRQ.

&&

.Prev Discussion... /issued 359 AM EDT Fri Aug 17 2018/

SHORT TERM (Today-Saturday)...
Very little change over the next couple of days as an U/L
subtropical ridge will persist from the central Atlantic
across the Florida peninsula and Gulf of Mexico. An U/L
trough will approach the eastern seaboard on Saturday which
will weaken heights a bit over Florida, however the U/L
ridge will hold over the forecast area.

The surface ridge axis across north central Florida will
sink a bit south tonight and Saturday to the central Florida
peninsula. Weak southeast boundary layer flow will continue
which will enhance convergence along the west coast sea
breeze boundary...and only allow the boundary to push inland
to around the I-75 corridor. Scattered to numerous showers
and thunderstorms will develop mid to late afternoon today
and Friday with best chance of rain over the coastal
counties of west central and southwest Florida. Strong
subsidence due to the U/L ridge over the region will cause
temperatures to continue several degrees above climatic
normals.

LONG TERM (Saturday night-Thursday)...
The subtropical U/L ridge will hold over the forecast area
Monday and Tuesday, however a strong U/L trough will dig
from the Great Lakes to the northern Gulf coast Wednesday
and Thursday which will suppress the U/L ridge south of the
region.

At the surface, the ridge axis across the central Florida
peninsula will drift a bit north over the weekend and into
early next week with southeast boundary layer flow across
west central and southwest Florida. Very little change to
sensible weather as the west coast sea breeze boundary will
continue to be the focus for scattered to numerous
afternoon showers and thunderstorms with the best chance
over the coastal counties with highest pops along the I-75
corridor.

As the U/L trough digs mid week, the surface ridge axis will
be suppressed south of the region with onshore boundary
layer flow developing. This will promote scattered
morning/early afternoon showers and thunderstorms developing
over the coastal counties which will increase in areal
coverage during the mid/late afternoon as the west coast sea
breeze pushes inland.

MARINE...
Weak gradient across the waters will create rather benign
conditions through the period. Main hazard will be isolated
to scattered mainly overnight/early morning showers and
thunderstorms.

FIRE WEATHER...
No fire weather hazards are expected for the next several
days as relative humidity values are expected to remain well
above critical levels.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
TPA  91  77  92  78 /  60  50  60  30
FMY  94  74  93  74 /  60  40  60  30
GIF  94  74  93  74 /  60  40  40  20
SRQ  89  77  90  77 /  60  40  40  30
BKV  92  75  92  74 /  60  50  30  20
SPG  91  79  92  79 /  60  50  40  30

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Beach Hazards Statement through Saturday evening for
     Coastal Manatee.

     Beach Hazards Statement through Monday evening for Coastal
     Charlotte-Coastal Lee-Coastal Sarasota.

Gulf waters...None.
&&

$$

AVIATION...09/Rude
SHORT TERM/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...13/Oglesby
LONG TERM...11/McKaughan


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