000
FXUS62 KTBW 312328
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
728 PM EDT Sat Oct 31 2020

.AVIATION...
Prevailing VFR conditions through the remainder of the period with
BKN/OVC skies between 040-070 across most terminals. Winds will
generally remain east and then southeast through early afternoon
tomorrow before a cold front moves through in the afternoon,
shifting winds out of the north to northwest. Showers and perhaps
a few thunderstorms will be possible out ahead and along the
front.


&&

.MARINE...
Winds will remain out of an easterly direction around 10
to 15 knots through Sunday morning. A strong cold front will
push through the region during the day tomorrow and should clear
the southern waters by late tomorrow night. Winds will switch
quickly to the north and increase behind the front. Small Craft
Advisory conditions still look likely to be needed for all zones
in the Gulf of Mexico starting early Monday morning and last
throughout the day, perhaps even into Tuesday morning as northeast
winds will remain elevated due to a tight pressure gradient.
After that, expect cautionary headlines to remain in much of the
forecast as a disturbance in the Caribbean along with high
pressure to our north will result in breezy east to northeast
winds through the week.

&&

.Prev Discussion... /issued 554 PM EDT Sat Oct 31 2020/

UPDATE...
No significant changes made to the current forecast except to
tweak PoPs through the next 6 hours to reflect current radar
trends. If you live in Hillsborough/Polk counties northward, your
trick or treating weather should be great this evening with mild,
but not unbearably humid conditions. However, clouds will still
hold firmly along and south of the I-4 corridor.
Manatee/Hardee/Highlands and southward, some isolated to
scattered showers will continue to affect the area through 9pm.
The most robust convection is off the coast of SWFL, but will
still maintain a mention of a thunderstorm or two for the next few
hours as instability still resides across the area from today`s
heating.

Meanwhile, Tropical Depression 29 has formed in the Central
Caribbean this afternoon. This system is expected to strengthen
and will likely become Tropical Storm or Hurricane Eta in the next
day or two as it moves westward towards Central America. When
this happens, we will break the 2005 Hurricane Season as this will
be the first time we have reached so far into the Greek Alphabet.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
TPA  72  88  62  75 /   0  30  10   0
FMY  73  88  67  79 /  30  30  20   0
GIF  71  88  62  75 /  10  40  10   0
SRQ  73  88  64  78 /  10  30  10   0
BKV  67  86  56  73 /   0  20  10   0
SPG  74  85  64  74 /  10  20  10   0

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.
&&

$$
UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE...Norman
DECISION SUPPORT/UPPER-AIR...Fleming