851
FXUS62 KTBW 262346
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
646 PM EST Wed Feb 26 2020

.UPDATE...
The initial line of showers and thunderstorms is now pushing into
southern counties. Winds remain pretty decent along the initial
line of storms. Reports continue to occasionally come in around
40kts as the leading edge passes by.

Most places now are just seeing some light rain, and this is
expected to continue for the next few hours. Because of the
widespread rain, POPs have been adjusted slightly for the next few
hours to better reflect the probability of rainfall across West
Central and SW Florida.

Otherwise, the forecast remains on track. We`ll begin to cool down
pretty rapidly as the front passes. This is already being witnessed
with northern locations already cooling into the low 60s and
steadily falling. The warmup won`t begin to take place until late in
the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
KFMY and KRSW are about to experience the leading edge of the line
of storms. Gusty winds and heavy rain are expected, along with brief
IFR conditions. Once the initial line passes over, conditions will
look the same as other terminals. Temporary MVFR conditions are
expected for the next few hours, before conditions are expected to
become prevailing VFR. After a brief lull during portions of
the overnight, gusty winds will remain through tomorrow afternoon
for many locations due to the strong gradient, before beginning to
settle at the very end of the forecast period.

&&

.MARINE...
Rain will end in coastal waters over the next few hours, but boating
conditions remain poor due to strong winds. A Small Craft Advisory
goes into effect at 7PM tonight and runs through tomorrow afternoon.
By tomorrow evening, winds will start to settle, but temps will have
dropped significantly.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
TPA  78  51  59  43 /  90  80   0   0
FMY  82  57  65  44 /  60  80   0   0
GIF  80  49  61  39 /  70  90   0   0
SRQ  79  54  62  45 /  80  80   0   0
BKV  80  45  59  36 /  90  80   0   0
SPG  78  52  60  45 /  90  80   0   0

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through Friday morning for Coastal
     Charlotte-Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Lee-Coastal Manatee-
     Coastal Sarasota-Pinellas.

Gulf waters...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST Thursday for Charlotte
     Harbor and Pine Island Sound-Coastal waters from Bonita
     Beach to Englewood FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from
     Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters
     from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 NM-Tampa
     Bay waters-Waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20
     to 60 NM-Waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20
     to 60 NM-Waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL
     out 20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE...Flannery
UPPER AIR...Fleming
DECISION SUPPORT...Sobien