000
FXUS62 KTBW 120005
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
805 PM EDT Tue May 11 2021

.UPDATE...
Similar to yesterday evening, there are a few stray showers and
storms out there, mainly over southwest Florida, and these should
continue to dissipate over the next couple of hours. No major
concerns for the overnight period and no changes were needed to the
ongoing forecast.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period. Light and
variable winds tonight will become southwest to northwest through
Wednesday.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure with light winds and an afternoon sea breeze continues
until Thursday when a cold front passes through the region. High
pressure builds back in for Friday and the weekend, with wind speeds
increasing to exercise caution levels at times.

&&

.Prev Discussion... /issued 201 PM EDT Tue May 11 2021/

DISCUSSION...
Nearly zonal flow over much of the Gulf of Mexico region gives way
to cyclonic flow Wed as a broad Canadian upper low moves into the
Great Lakes region. Atlantic high pressure ridges across FL to the
Gulf through Wed...but the axis shifts southward later Wed as a cold
front settles into the Deep South.

South to southwest 1000-700MB flow becomes southwest to west Wed. The
surface flow will be light southeast to south but shifting to
southwest and west in the afternoons and enhanced by sea breezes.
Ample moisture is in place with model PWAT values of 1.5 inches
with swathes of higher amounts...1.6 to 1.7 inches. Anticipate
scattered showers and a few storms today and Wed. These will be
mid afternoon to early evening and favoring interior locations.
Highs during the next couple days will reach the mid 90s inland
with heat indices near 100. There could be some patchy fog again
late tonight but with limited coverage and will leave out of the
forecasts.

Thu through Fri: The Great Lakes upper low meanders into the Mid-
Atlantic states by late Fri with it`s trough moving across FL to the
Atlantic. Upper ridging begins to build north from Mexico. The
Atlantic high pressure pulls back east as the cold front tracks
south down the the state...reaching south FL and weakening Fri.
The front will provide some additional moisture and lift with
increased shower and storm coverage. The rainfall along with more
cloud cover will help drop temperatures some.

Sat through next Tue: The western upper ridging slides into the
eastern US then flattens some early next week. High pressure moves
into the northeast quarter of the nation then tracks southeast over
the Atlantic...ridging across FL to the Gulf for of the period. The
cold front settles from the Bahamas through Cuba and northwest over
the Gulf and slowly becomes diffuse. The weekend is expected to
remain dry. However enough moisture could drift in from the diffuse
front to support showers/storms in the south Mon and Tue.
Temperatures will be about normal by a few degrees.

AVIATION...
VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the forecast period.
Some brief SHRA/TSRA may be possible through 00Z at some locations
as the west coast sea breeze pushes inland, so will hold VCSH/VCTS
at those locations. Winds remain out of the WSW 8-12 knots this
afternoon, decreasing LGT/VRB overnight. No other aviation impacts
expected.

MARINE...
Atlantic high pressure over the Gulf waters...with light winds and
afternoon sea breezes...shifts away Thu as a cold front with showers
and thunderstorms moves in then departs Fri. High pressure builds in
for the weekend with some robust winds...up to 20 knts at times.

FIRE WEATHER...
Increasing moisture through the end of the week will preclude low
RH concerns. Scattered afternoon showers/storms mainly inland for
the next day or so will have greater coverage when a front moves in
Thu then exits Fri. High pressure builds in for the weekend with
drier air. There will be a few high dispersions in the far north
Wed.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
TPA  75  89  75  87 /  10  10  10  30
FMY  74  93  73  91 /  20  10  10  30
GIF  73  92  73  88 /  20  40  10  50
SRQ  73  88  73  87 /  10  10  10  20
BKV  68  90  68  86 /   0  10  10  40
SPG  77  88  76  85 /   0  10  10  30

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE...05/Carlisle
Previous Discussion...Rude