810
FXUS62 KTBW 080052
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
852 PM EDT Sat Sep 7 2024

...New UPDATE, AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 852 PM EDT Sat Sep 7 2024

Scattered showers and thunderstorms at this time are mainly over
the interior and portions of the Nature Coast. We`ll continue to
see some convection pop along the outflow boundaries the rest of
this evening over inland areas, then partly to mostly cloudy skies
overnight. The stalled front to the north will be the focus for
more showers and thunderstorms late tonight into Sunday morning
across the northern waters moving into the northern Nature Coast
Sunday morning. Then with daytime heating and the sea breezes
we`ll see more scattered to numerous convection develop during the
afternoon and evening mainly over inland areas, but it does look
like the showers and thunderstorms will try and move back closer
to the west coast during the evening, especially from around
Tampa Bay southward. Current forecast looks on track with no
changes planned.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 852 PM EDT Sat Sep 7 2024

Scattered convection continues, but not expected to affect the TAF
sites the rest of this evening. VFR conditions are expected to
prevail overnight into Sunday morning then we`ll see more
scattered to numerous afternoon and evening showers and
thunderstorms develop which could cause some MVFR/local IFR
conditions. Light winds overnight will become southeast 5 to 10
knots Sunday morning then shift to southwest to west near the
coast during the afternoon.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 147 PM EDT Sat Sep 7 2024

A large trough axis extends from the Great Lakes Region down through
the Mid-Atlantic and off the East Coast of Florida. Stretched out
behind this low, a stationary boundary is situated across North
Florida, with scattered showers and thunderstorms over the Northern
Gulf through the Big Bend region of Florida. Weak high pressure is
dominating south of this boundary, with a light WSW flow in place
the surface.

The sea breeze is only just beginning to develop, with enough
moisture and instability in place to support some convection.
However, there is a decreasing moisture gradient, especially over
the Eastern Gulf and adjacent central Florida coast. Water vapor
satellite imagery also shows a pocket of drier air to the south,
which is being advected to the NE towards the FL peninsula in
response to the SW flow. Overall, this setup favors lower rain
chances for this afternoon and evening along the coast; but the
boundary collisions and moisture pooling across the interior should
still yield scattered to numerous storms, mainly across Polk,
Hardee, DeSoto and Highlands counties. SWFL is also favored for
higher rain chances as the slightly more SE low-level flow should
keep additional moisture in play, mainly across the eastern half
of Charlotte and Lee Counties.

As the parent low lifts northward, the subtropical ridge will build
back in and the flow will return to the more prevalent ESE flow that
has persisted for much of the last couple months. However, the
stationary boundary, as the name implies, will persist. By the
middle of the week, it looks to sink a little further south to
around the Bay Area. Should this be realized, the deep moisture axis
will be directly overhead, with widespread shower and thunderstorm
activity, and elevated concerns for heavy rainfall to lead to
flooding.

Regardless of the exact specifics, today and tomorrow are favored to
be the driest days, although far from completely dry. At least
scattered storms will persist each day, with warm and muggy weather
typical of a summertime pattern continuing.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 147 PM EDT Sat Sep 7 2024

With a stalled boundary over northern coastal waters, showers and
thunderstorms persist. Locally hazardous winds and seas are possible
in the vicinity. South of this boundary in central and southern
waters, a light SSW wind of 5 to 10 knots persists, with seas of 1
to 3 feet. Tomorrow and into the weekend, this flow turns back to
the ESE, with an expected shift in timing for thunderstorms by early
next week to be favored in the afternoon and evening as opposed to
the morning. As the boundary sinks farther south through the week,
more widespread shower and thunderstorm activity becomes likely at
anytime.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 147 PM EDT Sat Sep 7 2024

Conditions are forecast to be driest today and tomorrow, but
isolated to scattered storms remain possible along the coast and
scattered to numerous storms remain possible inland. With ample
moisture, there are no fire weather concerns at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  76  90  77  90 /  20  60  30  70
FMY  77  93  77  93 /  20  50  30  70
GIF  76  93  77  93 /  40  70  30  70
SRQ  76  92  76  92 /  10  60  30  70
BKV  73  91  74  90 /  30  70  30  70
SPG  80  91  79  91 /  20  60  40  70

&&

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Sunday: 6
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Monday: 6

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
    https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION...Close
DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Flannery
DECISION SUPPORT/UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Giarratana