828
FXUS62 KTBW 140052
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
852 PM EDT Sun Jul 13 2025

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 837 PM EDT Sun Jul 13 2025

Latest radar shows weakening convection across southern portions
of the forecast area will continue to fizzle out with most areas
dry through the remainder of the evening. However, hi-res
guidance shows rain chances increasing again into early Monday
morning along/near the coastal areas with scattered showers
possible in the low level onshore flow, though precipitation
coverage and intensity will increase further throughout the day on
Monday as a mid level wave approaches the Florida peninsula and
interacts with a very moist air mass. Based on recent radar
trends and hi-res guidance, made adjustment this evening was to
lower PoPs through midnight or so before showing a gradual
increase into tomorrow morning with overnight lows mainly in the
low to mid 70s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 140 PM EDT Sun Jul 13 2025

Current water vapor imagery indicates an area of showers and storms
off the east coast of Florida. Models show that PW values in the
vicinity are >2,25 inches. Closer to home, there have been persistent
showers/storms this morning into the early afternoon across the
Nature Coast that have dissipated but beginning to redevelop near
the I-4 corridor currently. The upper level pattern features a
weakening ridge aloft with a weak trough to the north and east. At
the surface, low-level flow is generally onshore. Expect
showers/storms will continue to move inland throughout the
afternoon and evening hours. This mornings 12z sounding indicated
1.82 inches of PW. This value is around to slightly above the
climatological mean for mid-July. Additionally, the 500 mb
temperature was near -9 degrees C. This values is around the 10%
percentile for mid-July indicating some cooler air aloft and
better than typical lapse rates. Due to this, any storm that does
form could become briefly severe with marginally severe hail and
locally damaging winds being the main threat. Expect any ongoing
convection should come to an end near sunset.

The moisture climbs on Monday with models showing PW values around 2-
2.25 inches across the region. These values are near the 90th
percentile for mid July. This will occur as the area of
showers/storms currently off the east coast associated with the
upper level low drifts further to the south and west. This general
pattern will continue into Tuesday as the upper level low drifts to
the west. A surface low could develop at this time and NHC has
outlined the northern Gulf with a 20% chance of tropical development
over the next 7 days. Regardless, the early to mid part of the work
week will be a rainy one across the region. Due to this, WPC has
outlined the area in the slight (2 out of 4) risk for excessive
rainfall on Monday and Tuesday. Rainfall amounts will generally
range from 3-5 inches. The higher end values in this range would
lead to a decent chance of seeing localized flooding, especially
in low lying areas and areas with poor drainage. Due to the
widespread cloud cover and precipitation, highs will be on the
cooler side in the mid 80s to low 90s.

The upper level low lingers just to the west of the region on
Wednesday before eventually exiting the region by Thursday. At this
time, chances for showers/storms will look more like a typical
summer time seabreeze pattern.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 742 PM EDT Sun Jul 13 2025

Scattered storms in SWFL will weaken over the next hour or two
but VFR conditions will generally prevail through the remainder of
the evening. Rain chances increase area-wide on Monday as deep
moisture moves into the region with scattered SHRA developing in
the morning but increasing in coverage to numerous TSRA in the
afternoon and evening hours. Thus, periods of flight restrictions
will be possible particularly during heavier periods of
precipitation, though conditions should be VFR on Monday outside
of any convection.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 140 PM EDT Sun Jul 13 2025

High pressure will hold over the waters through tonight. An area
of low pressure may develop and move west across the waters Monday
and Tuesday and then well west of the area by midweek. This will
bring increasing shower and thunderstorm activity for much of the
upcoming week. Winds and seas are expected to remain below
cautionary levels at this time, but gusty winds and locally rough
seas will occur in the vicinity of thunderstorms.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 140 PM EDT Sun Jul 13 2025

No fire weather concerns are expected at this time. Moisture will
increase with best chances for widespread showers and thunderstorms
on Monday and Tuesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  80  90  77  90 /  40  90  80  90
FMY  77  90  74  89 /  40 100  70 100
GIF  76  91  74  91 /  50 100  50  90
SRQ  78  90  74  90 /  40  90  80  90
BKV  75  91  72  92 /  40  90  60  90
SPG  79  88  77  88 /  50  90  80  90

&&

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Monday: 8
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Tuesday: 2

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
     https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Giarratana
DECISION SUPPORT...Delerme
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Davis