Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
069 FXUS62 KTBW 222314 AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 714 PM EDT Sat Mar 22 2025 ...New AVIATION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 140 PM EDT Sat Mar 22 2025 We started off unusually cold for this time of year with lots of us waking up in the 30`s and 40`s. This includes record lows in PGD and BKV. Currently we are seeing mainly clear skies with plenty of sunshine with a high pressure just off the west coast of Florida. This high pressure will be overhead tomorrow with another colder morning with lows in the 40`s before we see a very quick warm up on Sunday with highs in the low to mid 80`s. High pressure will be pushed off in the Atlantic as a cold front start to push through the southeast on Monday. This will shift our winds to the south and bring some warmer and more humid air with some areas in the interior expected to get into the upper 80`s Monday. This cold front will push through Florida on Tuesday and every run of the models bring less and less rain as the system pushes through. Still keep some isolated PoPs mainly in the southern interior zones Tuesday afternoon. The front itself will end up stalling in South Florida Wednesday morning. This will keep us in the warm sector with highs near 90 degrees for most areas away from the coast. A shot of upper level energy will help to finally push the front completely out of the area Thursday. This will shift our winds out of the east. This strong easterly breeze will keep the east coast and interior areas a little cooler in the low to mid 80`s. At the same time the slightly cooler Atlantic air will not make it to the west coast resulting in highs near 90 degrees. This trend will continue into our Friday. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 711 PM EDT Sat Mar 22 2025 VFR conditions will prevail throughout the period with high pressure across the region. Winds will fall below 5 kts overnight and reach 5-10 kts on Sunday with ESE winds Sunday morning shifting onshore by the afternoon as the sea breeze develops. && .MARINE... Issued at 140 PM EDT Sat Mar 22 2025 A pretty quiet weather pattern over the next 5 days will help to bring pleasant boating conditions. Winds should generally stay between 5 to 10 knots through Wednesday. Winds will shift to the east on Sunday as high pressure moves away before shifting southeast on Monday in response to a cold front heading our way. Cold front will push through on Tuesday and bring an isolated shower or two as it passes. Winds will be northeast on Wednesday behind the front. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 140 PM EDT Sat Mar 22 2025 Very dry conditions will remain over the state on Sunday with critical RHs Sunday afternoon. RH will go up Monday and Tuesday as a front approaching the area will shift us to a more southerly flow. Front will push through on Tuesday bringing some isolated showers to the area before we start to dry out once again on Wednesday. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 140 PM EDT Sat Mar 22 2025 Very dry conditions will remain over the state on Sunday with critical RHs Sunday afternoon. RH will go up Monday and Tuesday as a front approaching the area will shift us to a more southerly flow. Front will push through on Tuesday bringing some isolated showers to the area before we start to dry out once again on Wednesday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 55 79 63 81 / 0 0 0 0 FMY 55 82 61 85 / 0 0 0 0 GIF 53 82 60 86 / 0 0 0 0 SRQ 51 77 60 80 / 0 0 0 0 BKV 40 82 53 82 / 0 0 0 0 SPG 60 76 65 78 / 0 0 0 0 && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...None. && $$ DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Giarratana DECISION SUPPORT...Flannery UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Flannery