000
FXUS62 KTBW 051252
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
752 AM EST Fri Mar 5 2021

.UPDATE...
Outside of a few wispy high clouds, the day is starting out pretty
clear across the Florida peninsula. Surface high pressure is
centered over coastal Alabama, favoring light NE winds and
subsidence  at the surface. The same cannot be said about our winds
aloft, however. Sounding data from 12Z shows winds at just over
20kft to be approaching 100kts. By 45kft, winds are running in
excess of 115kts. The jet stream is directly overhead today, a
pattern that rarely lasts for long periods of time.

Indeed, change is on the way. The the upper-level ridge and surface
trough have become vertically stacked, signifying that the pleasant
weather will soon cease to exist. With a trough axis diving SE
across the Southern Plains today, what is left of the ridge is
expected to slide eastward. The weakening high pressure feature,
coupled with daytime heating, should allow a light sea breeze to
develop this afternoon. As the high pressure continues to fade and
the trough approaches, higher clouds start to filter in this evening
and overnight; a precursor to the unsettled weather, then cooler
temperatures to follow this weekend. Overall, this falls in line
with the current forecast. Some adjustments have been made to fire
weather parameters to better capture today`s transport winds and
dispersion indices, but no additional changes are expected at this
time.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions prevail today with light NE winds shifting NW later
this afternoon for coastal sites as high pressure continues to slide
eastward. Another frontal system begins to approach tonight and into
tomorrow, leading to increasing high clouds, followed by CIGs
dropping into the 5kft range overnight, and then the possibility of
showers during the day tomorrow.

&&

.MARINE...
The pleasant weather and benign boating conditions of today give way
to unsettled weather and colder temperatures this weekend and into
the first part of next week. The changing weather is expected to
cause an increase in winds and seas through the weekend and into the
early part of next week, leading to cautionary to advisory
conditions for much of the next few days.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
TPA  78  59  70  53 /   0  10  90  30
FMY  80  60  76  57 /   0   0  70  40
GIF  78  58  71  52 /   0   0  90  40
SRQ  79  59  72  55 /   0   0  90  40
BKV  78  52  68  46 /   0  20  80  30
SPG  76  62  69  56 /   0  10  90  40

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.
&&

$$

Flannery