


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Great Falls, MT
Issued by NWS Great Falls, MT
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
318 FXUS65 KTFX 110501 AFDTFX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Great Falls MT 1101 PM MDT Thu Jul 10 2025 Aviation Section Updated. .KEY MESSAGES... - Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms and breezy to gusty winds across North Central MT this afternoon. - A drier and warmer weekend. - Precipitation and cooler than average temperatures for the beginning of next week. && .UPDATE... /Issued 830 PM MDT Thu Jul 10 2025/ A cooler airmass continues to surge south across the region this evening behind a cold front that has shifted winds to the north across most of the area. North winds gusting as high as 35-40 mph in the 1-2 hr period following the initial frontal passage will spread south through the remainder of southwest MT over the next several hours while winds gradually diminish from north to south in the overnight period. Showers that developed behind the front across north-central MT will persist for a few more hours from Great Falls to Lewistown before dissipating. Satellite imagery shows the back edge of this area of clouds and showers already nearing the AB/MT border and this clearing will gradually spread south through the overnight period. Hoenisch && .DISCUSSION... /Issued 830 PM MDT Thu Jul 10 2025/ - Meteorological Overview: A cold front passage today will bring isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms south from Canada and into North-Central MT. Weak CAPE and DCAPE will keep winds sub severe with showers and thunderstorms. Gustier 700mb winds and the cold front passage will help keep breezy to gusty winds across the North-Central MT Plains this afternoon. Behind this, high pressure and northwest flow aloft kicks in for the weekend. Subsidence at the surface will keep the region mostly dry Friday through Sunday. Across the Hi-line Sunday, an increase in PWATs ahead of the next incoming system will bring a slight chance for isolated showers and thunderstorms Sunday afternoon. Temperatures also increase back to above average this weekend. The drier and warmer weather won`t last too long. Ensembles are starting to hint at a weather system passing through Monday and Tuesday, bringing wetter and cooler conditions to start out the week. - Forecast Confidence & Scenarios: PWATs reaching close to 1" towards the Canadian border will allow for a few isolated, brief moderate to heavy shower this afternoon along the Hi-line, but widespread wetting rain is not anticipated today. Recent ensembles runs are starting hint at a more wetter, cooler system moving in beginning of next week. There are some inconsistencies still on how cool it gets, but confidence is increasing for below average temperatures. A few models show maximum temperatures Tuesday fall 10-15 degrees below normal. There`s a 20-50% chance for 0.25" of rain Monday and Tuesday and a 20-40% chance for 0.5". -Wilson && .AVIATION... 11/06Z TAF Period VFR conditions will prevail at all terminals through the TAF period. Scattered showers behind the cold front will continue to make their way to the south bringing some low-VFR ceilings and periods of mountain obscuration through the first 6 hours of the period. Winds will diminish heading into the overnight hours and remain light through the remainder of the period. Low to mid-level clouds will give way to mostly clear skies across all terminals by 11/16Z. -thor Refer to weather.gov/zlc for more detailed regional aviation weather and hazard information. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... GTF 47 80 53 91 / 40 0 0 0 CTB 42 78 52 85 / 40 0 0 0 HLN 51 83 54 90 / 20 0 0 0 BZN 49 81 50 90 / 10 0 0 0 WYS 41 74 38 81 / 10 10 0 0 DLN 46 78 48 87 / 0 0 0 0 HVR 46 81 53 90 / 40 0 0 0 LWT 43 73 50 85 / 30 0 0 0 && .TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls