946
FXUS65 KTFX 132328
AFDTFX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
528 PM MDT Sat Jun 13 2026

Aviation Section Updated.

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated light showers possible this afternoon across Central MT.

- Drier and warmer trend continuing through mid day Tuesday.

- A cold front will bring showers and thunderstorms Tuesday along
  with gusty winds.

- An active period returns for towards next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/Issued 104 PM MDT Sat Jun 13 2026/

 - Meteorological Overview:

An upper-level ridge building in along the West Coast U.S. will
continue to out the region in northwest flow aloft. Therefore, a few
isolated light showers will be possible this afternoon, mainly
across the Little Belts/Central MT area. The main limiting factor
for this will be high pressure building in. The ridge slowly
moving east across the Western U.S. will keep high pressure
dominating through the beginning of next week. Therefore, drier
and warmer conditons build in through then. Temperatures dropping
into the mid to upper 30s across Southwest MT and parts of North-
Central MT can cause some frost to develop Sunday morning.

This northwest flow aloft pattern continues through Friday. An upper
level wave drops down from Canada and into MT Tuesday through
Thursday. Mid level winds increase Tuesday afternoon through
evening. A cold front dropping south late Tuesday through Wednesday
helps mix these winds down to the surface, bringing gusty winds to
the region. The front will also develop showers and thunderstorms
Tuesday into Wednesday morning. Towards the end of next week,
another upeer-level wave developing bring additional chances for
showers and thunderstorms.

 - Forecast Confidence & Scenarios:

The timing of the winds Tuesday will be key to the wind threat. So
far, models have the 700mb winds ramp up between 3pm to 12am. Winds
ramping up closer in the afternoon will have better diurnal
mixing, and a better chance for stronger wind gusts. However, the
cold front passing through the evening can also help mix down
these winds to the surface. There`s a 40 to 70% chance for 55 mph
wind gusts Tuesday along the Rocky Mountain Front. Across Central
MT from MacDonald pass through US Highway 12, there`s a 30 to 70%
chance for 50 mph wind gusts. Hotter temperatures Tuesday
combined with the wind and RH`s dropping to near critical could
elevate fire weather conditions somewhat, but the recent rainfall
looks to limit the severity. Places where there wasn`t as much
rainfall like Southwest MT will probably have to be monitored.
-Wilson

&&

.AVIATION...
14/00Z TAF Period

Isolated showers were diminishing in coverage across the Northern
Rockies late this afternoon, with this trend expected to continue
through 01z. Otherwise VFR conditions are expected throughout the
duration of the 1400/1500 TAF period; however, mid-level cloud
cover will linger through the late evening hours tonight to early
morning hours on Sunday. These mid-level clouds will lead to
mountain obscuration at times through this timeframe. - Moldan

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  40  70  44  79 /   0   0   0   0
CTB  36  71  45  78 /   0   0   0   0
HLN  40  73  44  81 /   0   0   0   0
BZN  36  70  39  77 /   0   0   0   0
WYS  30  68  31  75 /   0   0   0   0
DLN  36  69  40  81 /   0   0   0   0
HVR  40  73  45  78 /   0   0   0   0
LWT  37  67  41  72 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$
http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls