000
FXUS65 KTFX 011124
AFDTFX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
422 AM MST Wed Dec 1 2021

...Aviation Section Updated...

.SYNOPSIS...

Periods of strong winds will continue along the Rocky Mountain Front
and adjacent plains tonight, expanding out into much of the North-
Central Plains through this evening. Record high temperatures
expected today, with most areas warming into the 60s and possibly
the 70s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Friday...Strong and gusty winds continue to push
across the Central and North-Central Plains tonight through this
evening. Morning gusts are expected to be isolated in Blaine, Hill,
Chouteau, and Liberty counties, thus have elected to upgrade the
High Wind Watch to a Warning through 4z Thursday. Chouteau and Hill
counties have already hit high warning criteria between 5 and 6z
tonight. All other highlights have been left as is; however, may
need to extend the highlight for Rocky Mountain Front and Glacier
County, as confidence wasn`t high enough to adjust at this time.
Primary impacts are to travel, which may be difficult at times,
especially to high profile vehicles. Additionally, areas immediately
adjacent to the Rocky Mountain Front may also experience blowing
dust through the next 12 or so hours, resulting in periods of
reduced visibility. Wind gusts are expected to decrease after
Thursday morning through the early portion of the weekend.
Furthermore, Today`s high temperatures are still on trend to
potentially create new record highs, as old records will likely be
shattered by 5-10 degrees. For further details, please find the
Climate section below.

Saturday through next Wednesday...Winds are expected to decrease
drastically from previous days. High temperatures will begin to
return closer to seasonal averages. There is higher confidence that
the snow probability for this weekend to be diminished as latest
models have come in warmer and drier than previous runs. However,
model guidance shows a shortwave passing through the region early
next week, which betters the chance of precipitation Monday.
Current model guidance also suggests Monday`s precipitation may
bring light snow into the region, but given the event being
several says out, confidence is low at this time. - Pierce

&&

.AVIATION...
422 AM MST Tue Nov 30 2021 (01/12Z TAF period)

Strong west to southwest winds continue to prevail across the region
and will gradually increase throughout the morning and into the
evening. Widespread low-level shear is possible, primarily for KBZN,
KCTB, KHVR, and KLWT. Surface winds at KCTB may exceed operational
limits, where gusts in excess of 75kts can be expected. Additionally,
brief periods of blowing dust can be expected at KCTB. Strong to
severe mountain wave turbulence should be expected through the
period. Mountain obscuration is forecast as light precipitation and
low- to mid-level cloudiness is present along the Continental
Divide. - Pierce

KWYS TAF will not be issued until airport operations resume next
spring.

Refer to weather.gov/zlc for more detailed regional aviation
weather and hazard information.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Red Flag Warning has been issued for all of North Central MT because
of strong winds and low humidity for early December. The strong
winds will make any fires difficult to contain, especially in grassy
areas. Winds will slowly diminish overnight, but it will be gradual
and in some areas it will still be windy. Additionally, some
locations will have the potential to have record high afternoon
temperatures today.

On Thursday, it will remain windy over the region, but with slightly
cooler temperatures and a bit higher humidity, the threat for
additional fire weather highlights look low at this time.

In terms of precipitation, no impactful precipitation events are
expected in our region until early next week at this time. Brusda

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record high temperatures are expected today across much of the
region. Some record high temperatures could break the previous
record high temperatures by nearly 10 degrees. Additionally, some
locations could even approach the all time record high temperatures
for December. For instance, Great Falls all time record high for
December is 69 degrees, set on December 5, 1939. The all time high
for Helena for December is 64 degrees, set on December 4, 1918 and
December 27, 1980. Brusda

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  66  50  59  27 /  10   0   0   0
CTB  62  43  52  22 /  10   0  10  10
HLN  67  47  60  33 /  10   0   0   0
BZN  64  40  58  32 /   0   0   0   0
WYS  41  27  43  25 /  20  10   0   0
DLN  58  36  55  31 /   0   0   0   0
HVR  67  40  56  24 /  10   0   0  10
LWT  66  46  59  26 /  10   0   0  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MST this evening Central and Eastern
Lewis and Clark National Forest Areas...Chouteau and Fergus
Counties...Eastern Glacier/Toole/Central/Eastern
Pondera/Liberty...Hill and Blaine Counties...Lewis and Clark
National Forest Rocky Mountain District-Rocky Mountain Front.

High Wind Warning until 6 AM MST Thursday Eastern Glacier...
Northern Rocky Mountain Front...Southern Rocky Mountain Front.

High Wind Warning until 9 PM MST this evening Blaine...Cascade...
Chouteau...Fergus...Hill...Judith Basin...Liberty...Toole.

&&

$$

http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls