Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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FXUS65 KTWC 212146

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
246 PM MST Wed Feb 21 2024

.SYNOPSIS... Near normal temperatures through tomorrow before
increasing to above normal into the weekend. A potential weather
system could be on the way early next week.


.DISCUSSION...Winds have certainly picked up this afternon across
Southeast Arizona. As of 2 pm, the highest gusts have been mostly
confined to Cochise county, with the exception of some higher
gusts in the mountains. This wind has caused some blowing dust off
of the Willcox Playa going towards the AZ/NM border along I-10,
thus the blowing dust advisory continues into the mid afternoon.
The visibility could be poor along this stretch of I-10, so be
alert to changing visibilities and pull aside to stay alive.

Once this shortwave, that is currently overhead moves eastward, a
ridge will begin to build in its wake. This ridge will bring some
warmer temperatures into the weekend, with the warmest day
shaping up to be on Sunday. Currently the NBM has a 38% chance and
a 50% chance of reaching 85 degrees on Saturday and Sunday

The ridge begins to break down ahead of a Pacific low making its
way down into CONUS. Ensembles are still in agreement that the
500mb heights will come down with this system, but how deep this
trough can reach is still in some disagreement at this time. The
general timeframe is in rough agreement with some form of
precipitation in the Monday/Tuesday timeframe.


.AVIATION...Valid through 23/00Z.
FEW-SCT clouds AOA 20k feet then becoming SKC aft 22/05Z. SFC
SWLY/WLY winds at 12-22 kts with gusts of 25-35 kts east of KTUS-
KOLS until 22/02Z when winds lower and remain under 10kts and
follow diurnal trends. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF


.FIRE WEATHER...High temperatures will be around normal through
tomorrow then increasing to 5-10 degrees above normal by Sunday.
Minimum RHs will still fall to around 15-20% in the lower
elevations on Friday through Sunday with the potential for
moisture and decrease in temperatures to return with a weather
system early next week.





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