000
FXUS65 KTWC 221020
AFDTWC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
320 AM MST Mon Apr 22 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
Relatively cooler air will filter into the region to start the
new week. Breezy at times. As temperatures fall back to average,
we will see a few mountain thunderstorms, mainly Tuesday
afternoon. May-like heat will return by the end of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A trough pushing into the region will continue to bring breezy
conditions at times along with a slow cooling trend. Temperatures
will be closer to average for late April the first half of the
week. We`ll also see enough of a moisture increase through our
area to take advantage of the modest dynamics associated with the
system to bring a chance of showers to Southeast Arizona. GEFS and
SPC HRRR ensembles generate enough surface based CAPE to suggest
a few thunderstorms. Best chances will be mainly near the
mountains assisted by insolation Tuesday afternoon, however a few
buildups this afternoon can`t be ruled out.

The second half of the week will see a strong long period low
amplitude ridge build in from the south and west. That will
quickly push temperatures back to around 10 to 12 degrees above
average Thursday into the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 23/12Z.
FEW-SCT mid-level clouds this morning near KDUG clearing from west
to east. FEW-SCT clouds 10-15k ft MSL developing this afternoon
particularly over mountains and a slight chance of -SHRA/-TSRA
across the higher terrain northeast of KTUS. Sfc winds less than 10
kts this morning increasing out of the S/SW this afternoon at 12-16
kts with higher gusts, especially near Int`l Border terminals. SW to
SE winds late this evening into Tuesday morning mainly less than 10
kts. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A few mountain buildups this afternoon with a
slight chance of showers or a t-storm across the higher terrain
northeast of Tucson. Better precip chances extending further south
and west, including valley locations, on Tuesday afternoon. Dry
weather returns by Wednesday with the exception of the White
Mountains, where lingering showers are possible in the afternoon.
West to southwest 20-foot winds will be slightly elevated and gusty
at times this afternoon mainly east of Tucson, then generally less
than 15 mph Tuesday through Friday. Southwest winds will be elevated
and gusty at times again over the upcoming weekend. Daytime minimum
humidity in the teens this week but falling into the single digits
Saturday and Sunday.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

Meyer/Carpenter

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