742
FXUS65 KTWC 132015
AFDTWC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
115 PM MST Wed May 13 2026

.SYNOPSIS...

Temperatures will be about 3 to 7 degrees above normal into the
weekend with breezy winds each day, especially Thursday in
areas closer to the International Border. Increased winds are
likely again this weekend as a dry system moves in from the
north.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Southwesterly flow with a stream of mid-level subtropical
moisture continues over the desert southwest, now shifted east
from yesterday in response to troughing to the west/north.
Convection is developing this afternoon in a region of 0.5-0.75
inches of precipitable water, this moisture mainly focused near
and east of the New Mexico border. With this moisture mainly
aloft, the dry sub-cloud layer will prevent much if any
precipitation from reaching the ground and instead provide a
gusty wind threat with virga this afternoon and early evening.
With this convection an isolated 35 mph wind gust or lightning
strike will be possible mainly along and east of a Bisbee-
Willcox- Safford line through the early evening. A non-zero but
very small chance of a stronger wind gust is always in the cards
with a setup like this. Otherwise winds across the region will
be from the southwest at 15-20 mph through the afternoon with
gusts up to 25-30 mph.

Winds remain breezy over exposed ridge tops tonight but
otherwise will diminish this evening before increasing again on
Thursday. The strongest winds Thursday will likely be across
the south, mainly through Santa Cruz and Cochise counties where
winds of 15-20 mph and gusts of 25-30 mph are expected. With
minimum relative humidity likely to be below 15 percent in the
afternoon, locally near critical fire weather conditions are
likely through this southern region. Winds further north will
also be breezy but more in the 12-18 mph range with gusts up to
25 mph. Temperatures will come down slightly but remain a few
degrees above normal.

Dry westerly flow Friday and Saturday will bring west/southwest
breezes, but lighter than in previous days. By Sunday a deeper
trough will likely be digging out of the Pacific Northwest with
a pressure gradient tightening over southeastern Arizona.
Increased winds with potentially critical fire weather
conditions on Sunday may need a fire weather headline in the
future. Current NBM joint probabilities of critical winds and
low relative humidities sit around 30-50 percent mainly from
central Pima eastward through the remainder of southeastern
Arizona. High temperatures should dip a bit with this trough
Sunday and Monday, however the trajectory likely remains to the
north making the potential for a period (even a day) of below
normal temperatures less likely.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 15/00Z.

FEW-SCT clouds 10k-15k feet with scattered cirrus mainly from
KTUS- KOLS east, clearing after 14/03Z. Isolated virga/dry
thunderstorms near the NM border until 14/03Z will be capable
of producing gusty outflow winds. This could impact
KDUG but confidence too low to include in TAF. Surface winds
12-18 kts with gusts to 25 kts out of the southwest, becoming
light and terrain driven after 14/03Z. Surface winds will
increase again and turn to the southwest after 14/17Z, becoming
14-19 kts with gusts to 28 kts at KOLS-KDUG and 12-18 kts with
gusts to 25 kts further north. Aviation discussion not updated
for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Breezy southwest winds are expected again on Thursday, with the
strongest winds in southern areas mainly across Santa Cruz and
Cochise counties where 15-20 mph winds and gusts of 25-30 mph
are forecast. With clear skies and minimum relative humidity
around 10-14 percent, locally near critical fire weather
conditions are likely in this area through the afternoon. Still
dry but with a bit lighter winds further north. Breezy but
lighter wind Friday and Saturday before a dry system approaches
from the north on Sunday. This system will need to be watched
for the potential of more widespread critical fire weather
conditions on Sunday. High temperatures will lower to about 3 to
7 degrees above normal Thursday through Saturday with a bit more
cooling Sunday and Monday. Minimum relative humidity values
through the weekend will generally be in the 6-14 percent range
in the valleys and 10-20 percent in the mountains.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Edwards
AVIATION...Edwards
FIRE WEATHER...Edwards

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