634
FXUS65 KTWC 032205
AFDTWC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
305 PM MST Fri May 3 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Sunny, warm, and dry to start the weekend. A dry
weather system will bring stronger breezes to windy conditions
with possible blowing dust on Sunday. Cooler Monday than
temperatures warm up the remainder of next week with continued
afternoon breezes.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Sunny warm early May day with afternoon temperatures
and breezes similar to Thursday. Mostly clear tonight with some
patches of high clouds, currently to our SW, moving across the
area.

A little uptick in winds tomorrow in advance of a Pacific weather
system, currently approaching the Pacific NW, as it moves inland.
This feature will continue to move east on Sunday, bringing a
tighter pressure gradient and strong gusty SW winds to the area.
Wind speeds will be just below advisory criteria, in the 20-30 mph
range with gusts 40-45 mph, so no wind headlines at this time.
What we do have headlines for is fire weather related which is
addressed in the fire weather section below. Blowing dust also
possible Sunday afternoon.

Monday: Not as windy but cooler. There is a 25% chance that the
highs could be 2-3 degree cooler than currently forecast.

Tuesday: Warmer, by 3-5 degrees versus Monday, with afternoon
breezes continuing.

Wednesday thru Friday: Above normal high temperatures continue
with typical afternoon breezes.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 05/00Z.
Clear skies/SKC conditions thru much of the forecast cycle, with
just a FEW clouds at 8k-11k ft AGL north of a KTUS to KSAD line thru
04/03Z and then FEW-SCT clouds AOA 20k ft AGL aft 04/20Z. SFC wind
less than 12 kts thru 04/19Z, favoring a SWLY/WLY direction thru
04/03Z and then variable in direction between 04/03Z and 04/19Z. Aft
04/19Z, SWLY/WLY SFC wind at 10-16 kts and gusts up to 24 kts, with
the strongest SFC wind east of KTUS in the vicinity of KDUG and
KALK. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...High temperatures will be 2-5 degrees above normal
through Sunday and then within a couple of degrees of normal next
week. 20-ft winds will generally be less than 15 mph through tonight
and then 15-20 mph on Saturday. A dry weather system will move to
our north on Sunday, resulting in windy southwest winds of 20-30 mph
and gusts to 40-45 mph across most of southeast Arizona. Breezy
afternoon and early evening conditions then persist much of next
week, especially to the east of Tucson. Min RHs values in the
valleys will be in the single digits to lower teens, with values
generally in the teens for the mountains.

On Sunday, the combination of strong and gusty southwest winds, low
relative humidity levels and a high fire danger rating will result
in near critical to critical fire weather conditions from the late
morning through early evening hours. A Fire Weather Watch has been
issued for all of southeast Arizona from 11 am to 7 pm MST Sunday.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
 Fire Weather Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday evening
  for AZZ150>154.

&&

$$

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