Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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FXUS65 KTWC 222105
AFDTWC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
204 PM MST Thu Oct 22 2020

.SYNOPSIS...Dry weather with above normal temperatures will
continue this week. A weather system will bring much cooler
weather, gusty winds, and the possibility of showers early next
week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...More dry weather and above normal high temperatures
will continue the rest of this week. Thereafter, a big change in the
in the weather pattern will happen this weekend into early next week
as the storm track drops farther south. This will allow a weak
system to pass through the state late this weekend into Monday
before a colder and stronger storm system tracks south through the
Rockies into Arizona. Strong and gusty winds followed by much cooler
temperatures and a chance of showers will accompany the stronger
storm system early next week. At this time, the best chance of
showers appeared to be Monday into early Tuesday with some mountain
snow possible above 8000 feet. The bulk of the system will exit the
area by late Tuesday setting the stage for the possibility of
freezing temperatures Tuesday night and Wednesday morning in the
Sulphur Springs Valley. A light freeze will also be possible there
on Monday night and Tuesday morning but not as widespread.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 23/00Z.
Mostly clear skies with few clouds AOA 20k ft MSL though the
forecast period. SFC wind generally less than 12 kts favoring a
WLY/SWLY direction in the afternoon and early evening hours.
Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Dry conditions with warm temperatures will continue
into the weekend, with much cooler temperatures arriving on Sunday
from a developed weather system. Chances of precipitation have
increased in the higher terrain on Monday and early Tuesday. Dry
conditions will return after Wednesday with minimum relative
humidity values in the 20s for remainder of the week. 20-foot winds
will mainly be less than 20 mph with typical diurnal wind trends
through Wednesday.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$


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