Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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FXUS61 KBTV 211420
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
1020 AM EDT Mon Sep 21 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
Our streak of quiet weather continues through most of the week.
High pressure remains over the area. Hurricane Teddy approaches
the Canadian Maritimes on Wednesday and we`ll only see an
increase in winds beginning Tuesday afternoon. Next chance at
any significant precipitation for Northern New York and Vermont
is sometime early next week. Temperatures will return to
seasonal normals or slightly warmer from Wednesday onward.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 1020 AM EDT Monday...Going forecast in real good shape
and no big changes needed at this time. Only tweak of note was
to keep skies sunny today as high level smoke from western
wildfires is not having much impact on the sun. Rest of forecast
remains unchanged.

Previous Discussion...
With high pressure remaining over the north country from today
through Tuesday, dry and quiet weather will continue.
Temperatures will remain a bit below seasonal normals through
the near term with highs in the upper 50s to lower 60s today,
and a few degrees warmer than that on Tuesday. Tonight will be
the last overnight with temperatures cold enough for frost
formation, with some areas dropping below freezing. On Tuesday
will have an increase in winds, especially across our Eastern
zones as Hurricane Teddy approaches the Canadian maritimes
making landfall around Wednesday morning. Will see some smoke
make it over our area once again today and tomorrow, though
mainly in the higher levels of the atmosphere. This will give
the sky a somewhat milky appearance, and resulting in some
filtered sunshine. Have tried to account for this in the
forecast by increasing sky cover grids based on the HRRR smoke
output.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 455 AM EDT Monday...Dry weather conditions are expected
to persist Tuesday night into Wednesday with PoPs <10%
throughout the period. Will see an increase in N-NW mid-level
flow, with some potential increase in mid-level cloud cover,
especially during the daylight hours on Wednesday per GFS/NAM
mid-level RH fields. Lows Tuesday night generally in the low-
mid 40s, except upper 40s in the immediate Champlain Valley.
Highs for Wednesday afternoon generally expected in the 65-70F
range, with a few valley locations in the lower 70s. Some modest
increase in nwly gradient flow is expected, with winds
generally 10-15 mph and a few gusts closer to 20 mph, especially
east of the Green Mtns. Downslope flow component will aid in
adiabatic warming and highs into the lower 70s across the CT
River Valley Wednesday afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 455 AM EDT Monday...Main theme during the long-term
period will be moderating temperatures and continued absence of
significant precipitation chances. Continues to appear that weak
mid-level shortwave trough in WNWLY flow will bring mostly
cloudy conditions on Thursday, but with just a slight chance of
showers, mainly across far nrn NY into nrn VT. Thereafter, mid-
upper level flow pattern becomes increasingly amplified. With
850mb temperatures moderating to +9 to +10C, should see valley
highs reach the lower 70s. Should see low-level flow regime turn
S-SW Friday through Sunday as mid- level ridge builds newd from
the Ohio Valley into NY/New England. Trended highs into the mid
70s for Friday and upper 70s in valley locations for Saturday
(MEX-MOS shows 80F possible at BTV). Slow- moving closed low and
surface frontal zone shifting ewd across the Ohio Valley on
Sunday will result in potentially breezy conditions Sunday with
south winds 15-25 mph and gusts to 30 mph possible. Should again
see temperatures 75-80F for afternoon highs. Appears
precipitation with upstream frontal system will hold off until
Sunday night or Monday per 00Z GFS, and forecast currently
follows this soln.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Through 12Z Tuesday...VFR conditions will persist through the
period under mainly clear skies. Some smoke will filter into the
region from the north, but will remain aloft above 20,000 feet.
No restriction to flight category is expected at the surface.
Winds will be light through the period, except 5-10kts from the
southeast at KRUT overnight. FG that still remains at SLK should
lift in the next hour or so.

Outlook...

Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Neiles
NEAR TERM...Evenson/Neiles
SHORT TERM...Banacos
LONG TERM...Banacos
AVIATION...Neiles



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