Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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FXUS61 KBTV 190906
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Burlington VT
406 AM EST Sat Jan 19 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
A major winter storm is on tap for the North Country tonight through
Sunday as low pressure over the southern Plains this morning tracks
through the the Tennessee Valley today and up the East Coast Sunday.
Steady snow will develop across the region late this afternoon and
evening, and become heavy at times tonight into Sunday morning.
Snowfall rates of 1 to 2 inches per hour are possible, making for
hazardous travel. As low pressure departs to our east across the
Gulf of Maine and Canadian Maritimes, blowing snow will increase
throughout the day Sunday as north winds increase. Frigid
temperatures and very low wind chills are expected in the wake of
the storm for the Sunday night through Monday night period.
Temperatures will moderate back into the teens on Tuesday, and into
the low to mid 30s for Wednesday of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 406 AM EST Saturday...Really only noise level changes made to
the previous forecast with very good model consistency persisting
and no changes made to current winter weather headlines. Early
morning water vapor shows our impending winter storm across the
southern plains with several lines of convection and lightning noted
across TX/AR/LA/MS. Overall track of the system today through Sunday
remains the same moving east-northeast into the Tennessee Valley
this afternoon, to around D.C. by 12Z Sunday, and eventually into
the Gulf of Maine by 00Z Monday. Ahead of system, quiet and cold
conditions will be in place across the North Country this morning
with temps in the single digits and teens as high pressure over
James Bay filters southward into the region. Some concern remains
across northern areas where drier/arctic air will be in place when
snow arrives later this afternoon and evening, and this is shown
well in the NAM low level RH fields which don`t fully saturate until
later tonight into Sunday morning. As such, we continue to highlight
a sharp gradient in the snow totals, especially across the St.
Lawrence Valley into the northwest Adirondacks. On the flip side,
across central/southern Vermont, we continue to see the potential
for strong frontogenetic forcing in the 850-700mb layer late tonight
through Sunday morning, where within a mesoscale band we could see
1-2"/hr snowfall rates from around 06-15Z Sunday. All that said,
only minor changes were made to the storm total snowfall amounts
with a general 6-12" across northern New York, least in the St.
Lawrence Valley, and 10-18" across Vermont with the lowest totals
near the Canadian border.

Additional threats during the storm will be cold temperatures and
winds. Temps won`t budge out of the single digits north to low teens
south through the period with just some slight cooling across the
St. Lawrence Valley tonight into the single digits below zero. Add
in some increasing northerly winds Sunday in the 15 to 25 mph range
and gusts to 35 mph in the Champlain Valley, and we`ll be looking at
areas of blowing snow and wind chill values of -5F to -20F.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 415 PM EST Friday...Sunday night will see lingering snow
showers across the northern mtns and Northeast Kingdom of VT as
closed mid-level low crosses the region. Main concern will be
the frigid air mass and very low wind chills, generally in the
20 to 30 below range during Sunday night with north winds
continuing 10-20 mph on wrn periphery of departing low pressure.
Overnight lows Sunday night will range from -5F to - 15F.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 240 PM EST Friday...Quiet, though unseasonably cold
weather is expected for Monday into Monday night as arctic high
pressure settles atop the region and any lingering
flurries/light snow showers coming to an end. Some wind chill
issues may still be an issue early on. Modestly gusty northerly
flow to trend light by Monday night with all areas solidly below
zero by Tuesday morning.

Temperatures rebound by Tuesday and especially by Wednesday of next
week as the high slides east and a weak occluded-type boundary
pushes across the area. Highest PoPs for a few snow showers will be
focused on Wednesday during which models show best consensus for
frontal passage. Much uncertainty toward the end of next week with a
variety of possible solutions. At this point have maintained some
lower end chance pops until better agreement is realized.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Through 06Z Sunday...General trend through the overnight will be
for current BKN-OVC MVFR/VFR to lift to a SCT-BKN mid level deck
after 09Z. VFR then continues in the mid/late afternoon where
thereafter conditions will deteriorate again to MVFR/IFR as
light snow moves into the region from southwest to northeast.
Winds NNW 5-15kts overnight trend NNE at 5-10kts this afternoon

Outlook...

Sunday: Mainly MVFR and IFR. Likely SN, Areas BS.
Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHSN.
Martin Luther King Jr Day: VFR. Slight chance SHSN.
Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: VFR. Chance SHSN.
Wednesday: Mainly MVFR and IFR. Likely SHSN, Likely SHRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...Winter Storm Warning from 4 PM this afternoon to 4 PM EST
     Sunday for VTZ001>012-016>019.
NY...Winter Storm Warning from 4 PM this afternoon to 4 PM EST
     Sunday for NYZ028>031-034-035.
     Winter Weather Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 4 PM EST
     Sunday for NYZ026-027-087.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Lahiff
NEAR TERM...Lahiff
SHORT TERM...Banacos
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...Lahiff


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