Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS61 KBTV 181325
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
925 AM EDT Thu Oct 18 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
A chilly and blustery day is expected across the North Country
with temperatures only in the mid 30s to lower 40s. A few light
mountain snow showers and flurries are possible this morning.
Another cool night is anticipated tonight, followed by much
warmer temperatures by Friday into Saturday, before another cool
down occurs. Precipitation amounts through this upcoming weekend
will be light and generally confined to the mountains.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 920 AM EDT Thursday...Update to discontinue the Freeze
Warning in the Champlain Valley for this morning (though will
have to evaluate freeze potential again for late tonight).
Blustery conditions will continue with temperatures slowly
climbing thru the 30s with nwly winds 10-20 mph with gusts near
30 mph possible thru 21Z. At 13Z, temperatures range from 35F
at BTV to only 15F atop Mt. Mansfield. Also, abundant stratocu
remain, especially in vicinity of the mtns. These clouds will
prevail through late morning, before slowly dissipating as sfc
high pres and dry air aloft builds into our region, along with
winds shifting to more of a westerly direction for this
afternoon.

Given low-level thermal profiles highs will range from mid 20s
to lower 40s across our forecast area. Sounding profiles still
show good mixing this morning with bottom of the mix layer
supporting localized gusts up to 30 knots possible, especially
central/northern sections. These winds will slowly dissipate by
midday, as gradient weakens from building high pres across the
Ohio Valley.

Tonight, thermal profiles become complex as 850mb WAA continues
and creates a sharp thermal gradient from sw to ne across our
cwa. 850mb thermal analysis shows values ranging from near +5c
to -4c over the NEK, making for a challenging temp forecast.
Thinking deeper valleys will decouple under clear skies and
temps will cool quickly, especially eastern/central VT and parts
of the dacks. Meanwhile, summits and exposed midslope locations
will see a warming trend overnight as southwest winds develop.
Lows generally mid 20s to mid 30s, except lower 20s in the
colder valleys of the NEK/dacks possible.

On Friday, moderate low level WAA continues on breezy southwest
winds of 15 to 30 knots. Highs rebound back into the upper 40s
to upper 50s, which is close to normal, with dry conditions
prevailing. Some mid level moisture and weak lift approaches
western cwa late, so have included slight chance PoPs.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 305 AM EDT Thursday...Surface low pressure system passes
well North of the region on Friday night, with a trailing cold
front crossing our forecast area late Friday night into the
first half of Saturday. Winds will increase overnight ahead of
the cold front, especially across the higher terrain and Lake
Champlain. Will have some scattered light rain showers,
especially during the morning hours on Saturday. Clouds and
precipitation, as well as cold air advection, will keep
temperatures in the upper 40s to lower 50s on Saturday, which is
near normal for October 20th.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 305 AM EDT Thursday...Headed into Saturday night, we`ll
have some lingering upslope northwesterly flow snow showers.
Under cold air advection behind departing cold front, will see
temperatures dip into the lower 30s areawide. Surface ridge will
build over the area on Sunday and chance for precipitation will
diminish. A dusting to an inch of snow is possible in the
higher elevations by early Sunday morning. As surface ridge
slides eastward and off the Delmarva coast, flow will turn
southwesterly and we could see a bit of lake effect snow showers
reaching our Northern New York zones Monday into Monday night.
Then another upper level trough will cross the area on Tuesday
bringing some more scattered light showers. After some lingering
showers on Tuesday night, the weather looks drier from Wed
through early Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Through 12Z Friday...VFR conditions prevail with exception of
mvfr cigs at slk. Expect these conditions to improve by 15z
this morning. Breezy northwest winds of 10 to 15 knots with
localized gusts 20 to 25 knots will prevail today, before
slowly weakening and shifting to the southwest by sunset. Skies
should become mostly sunny by midday, except localized lake
clouds near BTV. Lake Ontario clouds will shift north toward SLK
taf site aft 06z with a period of mvfr cigs likely early on
Friday morning.

Outlook...

Friday: VFR. Windy with gusts to 30 kt. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance
SHRA, Chance SHSN.
Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SHRA,
Slight chance SHSN.
Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.

&&

.MARINE...
Lake wind advisory remains in effect for gusty northwest winds
of 20 to 30 knots this morning, which will become 10 to 20 knots
by this afternoon. Waves will generally be between 2 and 5
feet, with the highest waves expected in the Broad Lake.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Below are the record low max temperatures for October 18, 2018:

Burlington, VT      38 (1976)
Montpelier, VT      36 (1976)
St. Johnsbury, VT   38 (1939)
Plattsburgh, NY     35 (1989)
Saranac Lake, NY    33 (2015)
Massena, NY         36 (1989)

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Taber
NEAR TERM...Banacos/Taber
SHORT TERM...Neiles
LONG TERM...Neiles
AVIATION...Taber
MARINE...RSD
CLIMATE...Lahiff


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.