Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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FXUS61 KBTV 210802
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
402 AM EDT Sat Apr 21 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Quiet weather returns to the North Country as high pressure
builds in. Temperatures remain below normal over the weekend
but a warming trend will lead to near to slightly above normal
temperatures mid week. Expect plentiful sunshine through the
middle of the workweek before rain returns to the region
Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 141 AM EDT Saturday...Latest WV/IR satellite still shows a
pocket of cloud cover holding on over the North Country. That
has kept temps from dropping that quickly this evening and so
lows will only fall into the upper 20s to low 30s for most the
area. By daybreak the clouds should begin to deteriorate as
high pressure and dry air builds in. Expect mostly clear skies
for the region with some partly clouds skies holding on over the
Northeast Kingdom. The warm air wont quite reach the area today
so I anticipate another below normal day with highs in the mid
to upper 40s.

High pressure will continue to build into the region and winds
this evening will decouple allowing for radiational cooling to
take place under mostly clear skies. Expect chilly conditions
in the typical colder locations of the Northeast Kingdom and
parts of the Adirondacks.

Sunday looks to be a wonderful day as high pressure dominates
and we should reach upper 40s to low 50s across the North
Country under full sun. Light northwesterly winds will prevail
winds with relative humidities dropping into the 30% range.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 400 AM EDT Saturday...Deep-layer ridge building ewd from
the Great Lakes region will bring long-awaited pleasant spring
conditions Sunday night thru Tuesday. Dry air mass and mostly
clear skies will result in large diurnal ranges. Looking for
lows in the 20s to lower 30s Sunday night...warming to the upr
50s to lower 60s Monday afternoon. Should see light S-SW winds
developing by Monday afternoon. Will see lows mainly in the 30s
Monday night. Temperatures warm into the low-mid 60s for
Tuesday, with continued air mass modification and S-SW return
flow of 5-10 mph as high pressure departs east and southeast of
New England. This will be the first 60+ degree temps at the
Burlington International Airport (BTV) since 2/21 (69F). PoPs
NIL thru the short-term period.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 400 AM EDT Saturday...Will begin to see increasing clouds
Tuesday night from SW-NE associated with a potential phasing of
southern and northern stream shortwave troughs across the Upper
Ohio Valley. The 00Z GFS and 00Z ECMWF - unsurprisingly for a
potential phasing scenario - differ significantly on potential
details and timing of precipitation Wed- Friday. The 00Z GFS
suggests light precipitation on Wednesday, and again Friday. The
00Z ECMWF suggest a more phased soln with a consolidated
coastal low Wednesday into Thursday, with drier weather for
Friday. Overall predictability of the pattern is considered
lower than normal. At this point, have indicated low likely PoPs
(50- 60%) for Wed/Wed night, followed by chance PoPs (30-40%)
Thu-Fri for periods of rain showers. Not expecting any heavy
precipitation at this time. Abundant clouds and potential
precipitation should bring slightly cooler temperatures, with
highs mainly in the mid-upr 50s for Wednesday, Thursday, and
Friday, and lows in the upr 30s-mid 40s.


&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Through 12Z Sunday...VFR conditions are expected through the
period. Ceilings through 12z should be in the 5-8kft range and
then clouds will become scattered after 12z and we should see
mostly clear skies below 20kft through the remainder of the
period. Winds will become light and variable by 06z
tonight...then increase from the northwest after 14z but at
speeds of 10 knots or less and then become light and variable
again overnight.

Outlook...

Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Deal
NEAR TERM...Deal
SHORT TERM...Banacos
LONG TERM...Banacos
AVIATION...Deal


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