Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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FXUS61 KBTV 172303
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
703 PM EDT Tue Jul 17 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front moving across the North Country this afternoon
will produce scattered showers and thunderstorms. Some storms
will contain localized gusty winds, heavy down pours, and
frequent lightning. Much cooler and drier air arrives tonight on
northwest winds and building high pressure. This trend of
cooler temperatures and lower humidity values will persist for
midweek, before some warmer temperatures arrive by late this
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 646 PM EDT Tuesday...In advance of the cold front, last
of the showers and a few embedded tstms moving sewd 10-15kt
across Rutland/Orange/Windsor counties at 2245Z. May still see
brief heavy downpours, and still noting some localized dual-pol
precipitation estimates of 0.5-0.6" with this activity. That
said, overall trends are downward with onset of diurnal cooling
cycle. Made minor adjustments to PoPs and added fog for the CT
River Valley overnight with this update.

Tonight, moderate low level cold advection develops on
northwest winds of 5 to 10 knots as mid/upper level trof swings
by. The forecast challenge will be if any fog/br can develop,
especially with recent rainfall. Continued with previous
thinking that the combination of gradient winds/mixing and some
clouds overnight will limit widespread fog development. Temps
will range from the upper 40s to lower 60s overnight.

Mid/upper level trof axis will be over head tomorrow with 850
temps cooling to 8-10C along with building high pressure.
Expect cooler temps with some fair wx cumulus clouds to develop,
especially over the higher terrain during peak heating. Temps
mainly in the 70s with northwest winds perhaps gusting to 15 to
20 mph and much lower humidity as dew points drop into the 40s.

Tomorrow night high pressure moves in with mainly clear skies
and cool temps with low temps in the 40s except lower 50s near
Lake Champlain and upper 30s at KSLK. Not sure we`ll reach
crossover temps so much widespread valley fog is questionable at
this point.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/...
As of 326 PM EDT Tuesday...Conditions will be clear on
Thursday, with generally light winds. High temperatures will be
somewhat warmer as high pressure builds across the region. High
temperatures will be in the low 80s across the St. Lawrence and
Champlain Valley, and the rest of the North Country will
generally be in the 70s. Calm and clear conditions under high
pressure will lead to another night of efficient radiational
cooling Friday morning. Slightly higher thicknesses and a
transition to light southerly winds will leave low temperatures
about 3-5 degrees warmer at daybreak than Thursday morning.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 326 PM EDT Tuesday...High pressure will be in control of
our weather until Sunday morning. An upper low will be
positioned across the Great Lakes region on Sunday and open up
into a trough as it barely moves against a growing Bermuda High.
Meanwhile, favorable conditions will lend itself to height
falls across the Eastern Seaboard where a surface feature will
develop. This will quickly become entangled within the large
scale circulation of the upper trough and send a plume of
moisture northward. Forecast models remain inconsistent with
whether the surface feature tracks over our area or just off to
our east, but the increased moisture and the approaching upper
trough will lead to rain chances on Sunday. Differences continue
to grow heading into Monday, but with the presence of a new
upper trough maintaining moist southerly flow, unsettled weather
is possible next Monday and Tuesday.

Temperatures will be warm on Friday and Saturday, with highs in the
mid to upper 80s across much of the area and 70s in the higher
elevations. Lows will be in the 60s across the valleys and in the
50s throughout the rest of the region. Temperatures will remain
near to above seasonal norms through the rest of the period,
though Sunday highs should be cooler with increasing cloud cover
and southeasterly flow.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Through 00Z Thursday...Mainly VFR through the forecast period as
cold front clears well southeast and any lingering showers far
south ending by 01Z. Only exception will be some patchy MVFR br
possible at KSLK, with higher confidence of IFR low stratus and
some br at KRUT through 06-08Z as heavier rainfall earlier this
evening will keep surface layer near saturation. Winds
generally light and variable to light northwesterly around 5
knots overnight. After 12Z Wednesday mainly SKC expected under
modest northwesterly breezes in the 06-12 kt range.

Outlook...

Wednesday Night: VFR. Patchy BR.
Thursday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Sunday: VFR. Chance SHRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Sisson
NEAR TERM...Banacos/Sisson
SHORT TERM...Haynes
LONG TERM...Haynes
AVIATION...JMG



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