000
FXUS61 KCAR 251505
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
1105 AM EDT Fri May 25 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
A warm front will stall out near or just north of far northern
Maine this morning. A cold front will push south across the
region tonight. High pressure will build to the north of the
area Saturday and will move into the Canadian Maritimes Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
11:00 AM Update...A line of showers continues along the frontal
boundary across the north. Focussed area of showers along this
line in update and kept mention of embedded thunderstorms will
some convective cells showing up. Raised pops just a bit for the
afternoon thundershowers. Also raised temps Downeast through
midday where sunshine is rapidly warming the air.

Previous discussion:
A warm front lifting across the region early this morning will allow
a very warm and more humid air mass to build into the area today.
The 925H temperatures are expected to soar to +22-23C across central
and Downeast areas, and with a gusty west wind and some sun
temperatures will climb into the upper 80s with a few spots from
Bangor to Millinocket to likely hit 90 degrees.  Offshore flow will
mean that temperatures will also get quite warm along the
coast. Where there remains uncertainty is in the far north,
where more clouds and some showers and a cooler air mass will
keep temperatures mostly in the 70s, but if that boundary gets
nudged just a bit further north and there is a bit more sun
around midday temps could soar into the l/m 80s even in far
northern Maine; but for now that still remains in doubt as temps
in the upper 40s with clouds and showers around early this
morning.

The concern today will be the potential for severe weather
ahead of a cold front. The best cape and instability this
afternoon and evening will generally be from around Clayton Lake
to Mars Hill and points south to the central highlands and into
southern Aroostook County. There is strong deep layer shear,
but it is all unidirectional. The biggest concern would be hail
with a secondary concern for locally strong wind gusts. The
tornado threat looks to be quite low. Any thunderstorms should
end by late evening with scattered showers pressing south toward
the coast. Drier and cooler air will filter into northern areas
overnight with clearing.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Overall not a bad start to the Memorial Day Weekend.  Saturday will
be much less humid with a good deal of sunshine across central and
northern portions of the forecast area.  Downeast and in the Bangor
Region clouds and a morning shower in spots will give way to at
least a p/sunny sky with it turning noticeably less humid. Dry
and cool Sat night, and in fact some of the normal cold spots in
the northwest valleys may get down to near or even a little
below freezing. At this time it would appear the best shot at
any frost would be in the far northwest where the frost/freeze
program does not commence until June 1st. On Sunday, high
pressure pulls east of the area with onshore flow to strengthen.
This will keep temperatures on the cool side along the coast
and even into interior Downeast Maine, but the further north one
goes the warmer it will get away from the influence of the cold
ocean waters. In fact, highs may reach 70 degrees or better in
far northwest Maine while some coastal communities do not get
out of the upper 40s and low 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Unsettled as we head into Memorial Day.  Onshore flow continues
Memorial Day, and an upper trough works across the area with
clouds and showers.  Toward the coast, it will likely be quite
cool with some showers and drizzle. Highs will likely not get
out of the 50s for most areas, and especially along the coast
where temperatures may not get much warmer than 50 degrees along
the immediate shoreline. Some fog is also likely Monday and
Monday night along the coast. A cold front crosses the area
Monday night with more showers and the possibility of a
thunderstorm if there should be some elevated instability.
Confidence on elevated instability several days out is low, so
for now will not mention any thunder. Showers will likely come
to an end by early Tuesday and will be followed by clearing and
drier air. The air mass warms up mid-late week, and by Thursday
both the ECMWF and GFS have 925H temps soaring to around
+24-25C despite relatively low 500H heights. Potential for
widespread highs around or even a little above 90 degrees for
inland areas. The wind direction is a bit uncertain along the
coast as to whether there might be enough sly component to keep
temps cooler. Did go above the model blend temps for Thursday,
but potentially it will be even warmer.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR today and tonight outside of any stronger
convection where brief IFR conditions are possible from around
19z to 02z generally south of KCAR and north of KBGR. Strong
and erratic wind gusts are possible in or near any t-storms this
afternoon and evening. A few very local pockets of IFR to MVFR
are possible early this morning from KPQI to KFVE. Marginal LLWS
at times early today, but as the west wind increased the wind
shear is expected to diminish.

SHORT TERM: Predominately VFR through Tue. There is the chance
of lower ceilings and visibility by later Monday and Mon night
at KBHB in lower stratus and fog. Local MVFR possible Mon night
in showers.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A small craft advisory remains in effect on the coastal
waters into this evening.

SHORT TERM: The wind and seas are expected to remain below small
craft advisory levels from late tonight through Sunday. The seas
may build to sca levels by Sun night or Monday on the coastal
waters. There is the potential for areas of low visibility in
fog late Sun night into Monday morning, with a better chance of
more widespread fog Mon night.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

Near Term...CB/MCB
Short Term...CB
Long Term...CB
Aviation...CB/CB
Marine...CB/CB