Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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FXUS61 KCAR 261601
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
1201 PM EDT Sun Jun 26 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will slide east of the region today. A cold front
will approach tonight and cross the area on Monday. High
pressure will build in from the west on Tuesday then move
southeast of the area Wednesday. A weak upper trough will cross
the area Wednesday night followed by high pressure on Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1201PM Update: Satellite images show some fair weather cumulus
developing in the west with a line of high clouds making its was
south. Adjusted the sky forecast to show this. Temps continue
to climb with most areas in the south over 80 degrees and the
north approaching 80. No other major updates to the forecast
expect current obs.

Previous Discussion...
High pressure sliding east of the area today will bring a return
flow from the south channeling very warm and humid air north.
The high pressure and upper level ridging will allow plenty of
sunshine which will boost temperatures into the mid 80s inland
with dew points in the low 60s across the area. A cold front
will begin to approach tonight. The new NAM is showing spotty
convection over the west early this evening supported some lift
over the western mountains and divergence aloft. The GFS is not
showing convection but does seem to show a subtle reflection of
increased relative humidity where the upper flow is
encountering the divergence...split flow with part heading south
around the old upper low off Nova Scotia and part lifting north
into the Gaspe. Will introduce slight chance thunder in the
highlands early evening. Otherwise, tonight will become partly
cloudy, and perhaps mostly cloudy Downeast as some lower
clouds/fog push north from the coast. A mild night is ahead with
lows from the low 60s north to the mid 50s Downeast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A cold front will cross the FA Mon with showers and the chance
of a thunderstorm. The front is expected to move into western
Maine in the morning and should clear Aroostook County during
the afternoon, and finally push off the coast by evening. The
models and review of the Bufkit soundings indicate little/no
cape, very poor lapse rates, and a positive Showalter index of 1
to 3. the PWATs are quite high approaching 2" just ahead of the
front. A thunderstorm is possible and showers may contain heavy
downpours, but the severe threat is very low. Relatively quick
flow should also limit the threat of flooding. Expect most areas
will pick up one quarter to one half inch of rain, but locally
higher in heavier showers. Drier air and breaks in the clouds
are expected by mid to late afternoon across western portions of
the FA.

In the wake of the cold front a cooler and drier air mass will
filter into the area Mon night.  Tue looks nice with seasonable
temperatures and comfortably low dew points. There is a mid level
through that will cross the region during the afternoon and will
likely lead to enhanced cu fields. Although a shower can`t entirely
be ruled out, the air mass is quite dry and will leave out the
mention of any showers.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Fair weather Tue night into Wed morning with surface high pressure
to move off the New England coast with return flow to set up on Wed.
The next system approaches Wed afternoon from the west and will
cross the area Wed night. Showers will likely accompany this system
as it traverses the area Wed night.  Showers may continue in Thu
morning across the north associated with a mid level disturbance, but
should be followed by drier weather for late Thu and Thu night as
high pres briefly builds into the region. The models diverge
significantly at the end of the week with the GFS the most
aggressive at bringing a cold front through the area Fri with
the chance of showers and thunderstorms. The ECMWF keeps the
front west of the area Fri and does not bring the front through
until Sat. The Canadian is also on the slower side. A review of
the ensembles shows a lot of spread, so the timing remains
uncertain. For now will stick close to a model blend and an
increasing chance for showers starting Fri afternoon.
Temperatures mid-late week should be clear to average, although
it should be noted that the ECMWF with a slower solution would
bring very warm weather to the area on Friday as it keeps the
front well west of the region.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR conditions are expected today into this evening
with an increasing southerly breeze. Conditions may lower to
MVFR or IFR in southern sections this evening and then over the
north late tonight in low clouds and fog moving north.

SHORT TERM:
Mon: IFR possible early in the day at KBHB and KBGR, otherwise,
mainly MVFR in showers with a chance of a thunderstorm. S to SW
wind around 10 knots, except locally gusty and erratic near any
t-storms.

Mon night: MVFR improving to VFR. Wind shifting NW 5 to 10 knots.

Tue: VFR with NW wind 5 to 10 knots.

Tue night: VFR, with local IFR in any late night fog patches. Wind
becoming light and variable.

Wed and Wed night: VFR with S/SW wind increasing to around 10 knots
Wed, becoming light Wed night.

Thu: VFR with W wind 5 to 10 knots.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Wind and seas will remain below SCA today and tonight
with a light southerly breeze increasing late today into
tonight ahead of the approaching cold front. Humid air over the
colder waters will result in some fog and mist across the
waters through tonight.

SHORT TERM: The wind will increase and the seas will build ahead of
an approaching cold front Monday. Given the time of year and
the cold waters/warm air mass did cap the wind below SCA levels
and the seas at 4 to 5 ft.

The wind will diminish and the seas subside in the wake of the
cold front Tue. Fog may remain an issue at times until the cold
front clears the waters. The wind and seas are expected to be
below SCA levels Wed and Thu.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for MEZ029-
     030.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

Near Term...Bloomer/LaFlash
Short Term...CB
Long Term...CB
Aviation...Bloomer/LaFlash/CB
Marine...Bloomer/LaFlash/CB


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