255
FXUS61 KCAR 160125
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
925 PM EDT Tue Jul 15 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build across the region overnight into
Wednesday. Low pressure will cross the region Thursday, followed
by another cold front on Friday. High pressure returns on
Saturday into Sunday.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Update...
A frontal boundary will remain north of Maine overnight, with
ridging across the region. Diurnal showers are dissipating
across northern Aroostook county. Mostly clear skies, along with
haze, are then expected across much of the forecast area
overnight. However, low clouds and fog should move inland across
Downeast areas from the Gulf of Maine overnight. Low
temperatures will range from around 60 to the mid 60s north, to
the lower to mid 60s Downeast. Have updated to adjust for
current conditions along with expected overnight temperatures,
clouds and shower chances.

Previous Discussion...
Tomorrow, high pressure lingers in the northeast in the morning
before weakening, with low from Canada creeping eastward. Clear
skies and high temperatures in the upper 80s to low 90s.
Dewpoints increase, but generally areas stay below apparent
temperature 95F heat advisory criteria. Places with the best
chance for these conditions are Central Maine, from Dover-
Foxcroft to central Penobscot. Hazy conditions persist into
tomorrow night based on smoke model guidance. Again, this could
act almost as a cloud shield, keeping temperatures from raising
much higher than what is forecast. If there was breaks in the
smoke however, temperatures could potentially increase a bit.

Tomorrow night, cold front from low in Canada begins to creep
towards Maine, bringing the next chance for significant rain to
the region. Slight chance for some isolated showers in the
Crown of Maine as the front approaches. Higher chance of fog
along the coast and into the Downeast region. Low temperatures
in the mid-60s.
&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Thursday: Shortwave energy ahead of the approaching low
pressure system will move into the region. The concern with this
system will be the amount of convection development in the
afternoon, especially in the north. As of this update, the
morning is expected to be mostly sunny in the north with warm
temps in the 80s. As the shortwave moves in, instability
increases with higher CAPE and steepening lapse rates. Chance of
thunderstorms is expected north of the Central Highlands.
Decided to keep slight chance in the south with a decreasing
stability. In addition, upper air model soundings show PWATS
well above normal. Will most likely need a heavy rain tag on
thunderstorms for the day.

Thursday night: Showers will continue across the region as the
cold front moves into the state. Instability will decrease with
the diurnal cooling and a shift if winds from the W. Patchy fog
is expected to develop in areas that experience rain.

Friday: Per the previous discussion, a cold front from the west
will enter the forecast area early Friday morning and quickly
swing through the area through the day. With frontal passage
expected through the north by mid morning on Friday, the chance
for any stronger storms in the north is low. However, the front
will continue to push into the Downeast region through Friday
afternoon, which will line up better with peak diurnal heating
and could result in a few thunderstorms through the afternoon
and evening. Elevated moisture levels remain ahead of the front,
and so there could still be areas of moderate to heavy rainfall
with the frontal passage into Friday afternoon. However, a drier
air mass is moving in behind the front, and will quickly end the
threat of heavier rain after the boundary moves through.
&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
High pressure should move in front the Great Lakes by Saturday
making for partly cloudy skies and temps in the upper 70s to low
80s. High pressure should last into Sunday, however, some models
are trying to bring the next cold front into the region. High
uncertainty with the timing of the next system gave low
confidence in the NBM precip forecast. Decided to reduce chance
to slight chance. Model seem to return to agreement with the
next high pressure system early next week. Temps will be near
normal.
&&

.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM:
KFVE/KCAR/KPQI/KHUL: Generally VFR overnight into Wednesday
night, though occasional MVFR possible with haze. Variable winds
around 5 knots overnight. Southwest/south winds around 10 knots
Wednesday, then around 5 knots Wednesday night.

KBGR/KBHB: VFR early tonight, then variable conditions with low
clouds and fog overnight into early Wednesday morning. VFR later
Wednesday morning through early Wednesday night, then variable
conditions again later Wednesday night. Variable winds
around 5 knots overnight. Southwest/south winds around 10 knots
Wednesday, then around 5 knots Wednesday night.

SHORT TERM: Thurs: VFR/MVFR as rain moves in from the north. TS
possible, mainly at northern terminals. S winds 5 to 10 kts.

Thurs night: MVFR/IFR over most terminals, with FG possible
along with lingering rain showers. Light S winds may begin to
shift NW late at FVE/far northern terminals behind frontal
passage. LLWS possible ahead of the front.

Fri: MVFR/IFR early, quickly lifting to VFR behind frontal
passage from north to south. Winds shifting NW 5 to 10 kts with
gusts to 20 kts. LLWS possible ahead of the front.

Fri night-Sat: VFR. Winds light and variable.

Sunday: Uncertain conditions. Possible VFR/MVFR in rain showers.
WSW winds 5-10 kts.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Winds/seas below small craft advisory levels
overnight into Wednesday night. Patchy/areas of fog overnight
into Wednesday night.

SHORT TERM: Winds and seas will remain below SCA conditions for
this period.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...Air Quality Alert until midnight EDT Wednesday night for
     MEZ001>006-010-011-031-032.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$


Near Term...Norcross/Brennan
Short Term...LaFlash
Long Term...LaFlash
Aviation...Norcross/Brennan/LaFlash
Marine...Norcross/LaFlash