Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Caribou ME
1022 PM EDT Thu Oct 22 2020

Update to aviation section for Friday night

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will pass north of the state overnight and move
into the Maritimes Friday morning. A cold front will approach
Friday night and cross the region Saturday. High pressure will
build in on Sunday. Low pressure will approach Monday and cross
the area Monday night. High pressure will build to our north on
Tuesday as a frontal boundary stalls to our south.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
9:07 PM Update: High pressure will crest across northern Maine
overnight before shifting east and extending from eastern Quebec
and into the Maritimes by Friday morning. Fairly tranquil this
evening with some mid level clouds and relatively mild
temperatures for late October. Low pressure in the Midwest will
track into the Great Lakes overnight and will cause a warm front
to lift north across western New England. A shower could move
into far northwest Maine late tonight. Made some modest
adjustments to lower the PoPs just a bit based on upstream
radars prior to 09Z. There will likely be a bit higher chance of
a shower toward daybreak based on showers currently back across
southern Ontario.

Previous discussion:
High pressure will continue to reside over the forecast area
this evening, keeping winds calm. Mostly cloudy skies will
persist over the region as well. Cloudy skies will help keep low
temperatures mild across the region. The chance for rain is
expected across the west and the St. John Valley overnight
tonight as a surface low passes to the north. With this next
surface low passing by, the forecast area will sit in the warm
sector through the day on Friday, and temperatures will be above
normal. Highs Downeast will reach into the upper 50s and the
North will see temperatures rise into the mid-50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
High pressure will be well to our east Friday evening as a cold
front pushes into the St. Lawrence Valley. The gradient ahead of the
front will maintain a southerly breeze in western areas overnight
while high pressure ridging into the Downeast region will allow for
a more tranquil night Downeast. The cold front will press into the
area Saturday morning possibly with some showers. The best chance
for showers will be in western areas with less of a chance further
east as moisture along the front thins out with its eastward
progression. High pressure building in from the west will bring
clearing and much cooler air from northwest to southeast late
Saturday afternoon into Saturday night. The high will settle over
the area Sunday bringing a mostly sunny and chilly day with a
tranquil afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
High pressure will slide east of the region Sunday night as moisture
ahead of a large but poorly organized low pressure system quickly
moves into the region. Precipitation will spread into the area
Monday morning. The GFS has been consistently holding enough cold
air for precipitation to begin as some snow across northern areas
with an inch or two of snow possible over the far north before a
change to rain Monday afternoon. The ECMWF, however, has not been as
cold showing critical thickness for snow reaching the far north by
midday Monday as precipitation spreads in which would allow for
little or no snow followed by a quick change to all rain. By Monday
evening temperatures should be warm enough for rain across all of
the area. A light to moderate rain will continue overnight, pressing
down to southern parts of the area late Monday night into Tuesday
morning as high pressure builds over the north and a frontal
boundary pushes into the Downeast region. Enough cold air may press
back south with the high early Tuesday morning to change rain back
over the sleet across north central areas Tuesday morning. Weak high
pressure should end precipitation by Tuesday afternoon although
lingering moisture will keep the sky mostly cloudy. By late Tuesday
a band of moisture will extend from a trough position in Texas
northeast into New England. This will run along a very straight flow
from South Texas ENE with subtropical ridging in the southeast
expected to prevent any shortwaves from digging as they run up along
the front. Another weak and poorly organized low may track along the
front to bring some light rain Tuesday night followed by yet another
weak wave on Wednesday with another chance for light rain. Best
chances for rain Tuesday into Wednesday will be in southern areas
closer to the frontal boundary.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR conditions expected tonight with MVFR possible at
the northern terminals Friday. MVFR/IFR conditions will develop
Downeast late Friday as ceilings lower along the coast and the
lower ceilings move inland to KBGR.

SHORT TERM:
Fri night: IFR ceilings likely to develop in the evening along
the coast and will likely work north to the Aroostook County
terminals after midnight.

Sat: IFR To MVFR N improving to VFR late. VFR to MVFR Downeast. S
wind becoming N.

Sat night: VFR. NW wind.

Sun: VFR. NW wind becoming calm.

Sun night: VFR, lowering to MVFR late. Calm then SE wind late.

Mon: IFR. Snow to rain north. Rain downeast. SE wind.

Mon night: IFR, possibly improving to MVFR north late. SE wind
becoming N.

Tue: IFR to MVFR south. MVFR north. NE wind.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: The wind and seas will remain below SCA levels much
of tonight. Long period swell from the passing of Hurricane
Epsilon over the open Atlantic will meet SCA criteria beginning
early Friday morning, with seas up to 5 to 7 ft.

SHORT TERM:
A small craft advisory remains in effect into Sunday morning.
Seas will build up to 5 to 6 ft Fri night into Sat and possibly
up to 8 ft Sat night in swell from hurricane Epsilon.

&&

.CLIMATE...
A total of 6.61" of rain has been observed in Caribou, Maine so
far this month. This makes this the 3rd wettest October on
record since weather records began in 1939. The 2nd wettest
October was in 2005 when 7.38" of rain (and melted snow) was
observed. The all-time wettest October was in 1990 when 8.73" of
rain (and melted snow) was observed.

Drought conditions have improved markedly across the region due
to recent moderate to heavy rain events. The latest U.S. Drought
Monitor is available at drought.gov and you can also read the
latest drought information statement for northern and eastern
Maine on the news headlines on the top of our web page at
weather.gov/car

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 5 AM Friday to 8 AM EDT Sunday for
     ANZ050-051.

&&

$$

Near Term...AStrauser/CB
Short Term...Bloomer
Long Term...Bloomer
Aviation...AStrauser/CB/Bloomer
Marine...AStrauser/CB/Bloomer
Climate...



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