Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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FXUS61 KCAR 211035
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
635 AM EDT Sat Jul 21 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will exit to the east Today. Low pressure will
approach from the south tonight and lift north across the
region Sunday. Unsettled weather and humid conditions will
continue into next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Hot and a tad more humid today.

630 AM Update... Stratus and fog was starting to lift and burn
off this morning along the coast per the latest micro and
visible satl imagery. The latest obs from KBHB(Bar Harbor)
indicate this as well. Hrly temps were adjusted to match the
latest obs showing the warming trend this morning

Previous Discussion...
Stratus and fog has moved into the Downeast
coast this morning per the latest micro satl imagery and is
trying to edge its way up the Penobscot Bay near Bangor. The
HRRR and HREF guidance did a nice job in catching the stratus
and fog this morning. The stratus and fog is expected to retreat
offshore later this morning leading to mostly sunny conditions.
Elsewhere, another hot day w/dewpoints creeping up to near 60F
and tad more humid. Daytime temps are forecast to be in the mid
and upper 80s from the Central Maine Highlands northward. From
Bangor to the coast, a se wind will keep temps down into the
upper 70a and lower 80s.

For Tonight, the stratus will once again be present across the
Downeast region and is expected to gradually lift nne into early
Sunday morning. High pres will be east of the region w/that sub
tropical wave lifting n. Showers in advance of this wave will
move onto the coast overnight and then push north by Sunday
morning. Used a blend to capture the pop scheme bringing 50-60%
into portions of the Piscataquis and Penobscot region including
the Downeast region. Further n, dry conditons should hold w/the
ridge holding in longer. Kept the mention of fog in the forecast
especially across the Bangor and Downeast region. Overnight
temps are expected to be slightly cooler than Friday night.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
The Bermuda high will be the dominant features during this
period with a moist onshore flow and the diurnal ebb and flow of
stratus and fog inland. Dew points will be rising to the upper
60s to lower 70s, but cloud cover is expected to prevent highs
from getting out of the 70s...except Monday afternoon in the
northern and western zones where lower 80s are forecast. The
high dew points and clouds will also ensure that overnight lows
stay in the upper 60s to lower 70s.  A cut off low in the Ohio
Valley will send an impulse northward on Sunday that will
provide much-needed shower activity over the area Sunday into
Monday. This is a deep flow of moisture with high PWATs
originating from the Carribean. The lack of any cold air
advection aloft and low level stability due to low clouds and
fog leads to a decision to not mention any thunderstorms until
Monday afternoon when some surface-based instability may occur
in the NW portion of the forecast area.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The Bermuda high continues to be the weather maker into the end
of the upcoming week with abnormally high humidity. However,
expected cloud cover will keep highs from exceeding the lower
80s while nighttime lows remain in the upper 60s to lower 70s.
Fog will be prevalent nights into early morning along the coast
and afternoon showers or thunderstorms will be a threat further
inland. A strong front will finally break the grip of the
Bermuda high on Friday with cooler and less humid air.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: KBHB seeing LIFR conditions attm w/fog and stratus.
This stratus is trying to works its way into KBGR where
cigs/vsbys could drop to IFR through mid morning. THis will be
monitored this morning. Otherwise, VFR into tonight with the
exception for KBGR and KBHB as MVFR and possibly IFR settle in
after midnight.


SHORT TERM: IFR cigs and fog will affect all sites...especially
closer to the coast...each night into the early morning.
Cigs/vis will lift to VFR daily by afternoon with the possible
exception of BHB and coastal airfields. Afternoon thunderstorms
will be a threat further inland each day.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: No headlines through tonight. Navigation efforts
might be hampered due to fog. Vsbys this morning were down to <
1NM and this should be the case again tonight. Light ESE winds
of 5 to 10 kts w/seas 3-4 ft. Per collaboration w/GYX and USCG, Beach
Hazard Statement was issued as Paddlecraft Risk is rated High
for Today.

SHORT TERM: Fog will be prevalent in a very humid air mass from
Sunday into Friday. Long period swell may reach 5 feet at times
from Sunday night into Monday night. Long period south swell 5
feet or greater will return next Thursday night into Friday.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for MEZ029-030.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

Near Term...Hewitt
Short Term...MCW
Long Term...MCW
Aviation...Hewitt/MCW
Marine...Hewitt/MCW



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