907
FXUS61 KCAR 180401
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
1201 AM EDT Sun May 18 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will approach tonight then slowly cross the region
Sunday through Sunday night, then slowly exit to the east
Monday through Tuesday night. Weak high pressure builds in on
Wednesday. Low pressure approaches Wednesday night.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Update...
Made some adjustments to shower coverage overnight based on
latest radar imagery and hi res guidance. Otherwise, just minor
tweaks to current temps/dew points based on latest observations.

previous discussion
An upper level disturbance exits the region this evening.
Vertically stacked surface/upper lows then approach from
the west late tonight. An isolated thunderstorm is possible
across the north early this evening. Otherwise, expect
numerous/widespread showers across the region tonight. Will
also have fog tonight, most extensive across Downeast areas. A
Dense Fog Advisory could eventually be needed across Downeast
areas. The vertically stacked system will begin to cross the
region Sunday with numerous/widespread showers along with
patchy/areas of fog. Low temperatures tonight will range from
around 50 to the lower 50s across much of the forecast area,
with mid to upper 40s along the Downeast coast. High
temperatures Sunday will range from around 60 to the lower 60s
across much of the forecast area, with mid 50s to around 60
along the Downeast coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Vertically stacked occluded low pressure system moves out of
Maine by Sunday night, moving out to Nova Scotia on Monday
night. Cold air advection behind this system, which keeps
temperatures on the cool side during the short term period.
Rain showers overnight, with some areas of fog over coastal
areas, and patchy fog more inland, both of which may linger
into the morning hours. Highest rainfall rates in northern
counties, but throughout the short term period, not looking at
more than half an inch of rain of additional rainfall from what
previously fell over the weekend. Overnight lows in the upper
40s/low 50s. Plenty of cloud cover forecast with ample moisture
throughout the atmosphere, keeping highs on Monday in the upper
40s to mid 50s. Overnight lows on Monday night in the
lower-40s.

Brief period of upper-level ridging Tuesday into Wednesday,
bringing in some dry air in the mid-levels, which helps rain
showers begin to diminish. Skies become partially cloudy by
Tuesday afternoon, with highs in the mid-50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Mid-week brings a brief period of ridging Wednesday, that moves
out by Wednesday night as the next vertically stacked low
pressure system from our west moves into New England. Two low
pressure centers begin circle around each other right over
Maine. Current guidance is struggling with the placement of the
low center as it moves around, with the GFS staying more to the
north of Maine, while the EURO has the low more along the
coastline. Either way, as a result, rain showers forecast for
the rest of the week next week. Chance of rain showers
continuing into the weekend. Highs stay relatively cool, in the
50s throughout the end of the week. Lows in the 30s/40s.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: Generally IFR/LIFR overnight through Sunday.
Occasional VLIFR overnight through early Sunday, mostly
KBGR/KBHB. Otherwise, numerous/widespread showers tonight
through Sunday. Patchy/areas of fog tonight through Sunday.
Widespread dense fog also possible vicinity KBHB. Southeast
winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming variable tonight. Variable winds 5
to 10 knots Sunday.

SHORT TERM:
Sunday night...MVFR/IFR conditions due to rain showers, and a
potential for low cloud ceilings. Fog at southern terminals
possible. Winds from the N/NW at 5-10 kts. Gusts up to 20 kt
possible.

Monday-Monday night...MVFR conditions due to rain showers.
Winds from the N/ NW at 5-10 kts with gusts up to 20 kts
possible.

Tuesday...VFR/MVFR due to rain showers. Winds from the N/NE at
5-10 kts. Gusts up to 20 kt possible.

Tuesday nightWednesday..VFR conditions. Winds from the NE,
shifting to the E by Wednesday at 5-10 kts.

Wednesday night...MVFR conditions due to rain showers. Winds
from the E at 5-10 kts.

Thursday... MVFR due to rain showers. Winds from the E at 5-10
kts, with gusts up to 20kt possible.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Winds/seas below small craft advisory levels tonight
through Sunday. Widespread/numerous showers tonight, then
scattered showers Sunday. Fog tonight through Sunday.

SHORT TERM: Seas and winds stay below Small Craft Advisory
criteria throughout Monday. Winds have a chance to gust up to
low end small craft winds on Tuesday over the outer waters.
Potential for some areas of fog to develop over the waters
Sunday night into Monday morning. Rain showers throughout the
weekend, into the middle of next week. Outer waters stay at or
below 4 ft in the short term period. Intra-coastal waters stay
at or below 3ft. Winds on Sunday night from the SW, shifting to
the NW by Monday. Winds from the N Monday night, and then shift
NE by Tuesday.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$


Near Term...TWD/Norcross
Short Term...Brennan
Long Term...Brennan
Aviation...TWD/Norcross/Brennan
Marine...TWD/Norcross/Brennan