Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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FXUS61 KCAR 250704
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
304 AM EDT Sat May 25 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure across New York will move off the coast today. A
warm front will lift north toward the region tonight. A cold
front will cross the area Sunday night. High pressure will build
into the region from the west Monday and will settle over the
area by Tuesday morning. The high will move east of the area
Tuesday afternoon.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Today will by far be the nicest day of the holiday weekend.  A
surface ridge centered across central NY State early this
morning will pass off the NY/NJ Bight this afternoon. The air
mass will continue to moderate today with 925H temperatures
expected to climb into the mid teens (C), and with a decent
amount of sunshine inland areas will climb into the mid 70s,
and it will in most areas be the warmest day so far this year.
Along the coast, the wind turns onshore this afternoon and with
a sea breeze to develop highs will be reached in the early
afternoon and will fall mid-late day owing to water temps that
are only in the mid 40s. The day will start sunny with some
high clouds to move in during the afternoon from the west in
advance of the next weather feature. The SPS for inland cold
water dangers and the beach hazard statement will remain in
effect today.

Clouds will increase and lower tonight as low pressure near James
Bay this evening lifts into northern Quebec overnight.  This will
cause a warm front in central NY State this evening to push
east and into western New England late tonight. It will remain
dry during the evening with showers to move into western zones
around midnight that will move east overnight. The combination
of clouds and a south wind will keep temperatures on the mild
side with the coolest temps confined to the immediate coast.
Patchy fog will be possible after midnight, especially along the
coast and across the central highlands.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A cold front is expected to move across the region on Sunday
bringing showers to the region bring showers to the region which
are expected to persist into the evening. Clearing is expected
later Sunday Night as high pressure builds in from the
northwest. Strong high pressure will continue build in on Monday
into Monday Night with partly to mostly clear conditions.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
High pressure is expected to crest over the region Tuesday
Morning then move off to the southeast of New England. Low
pressure will approach the region from the southwest on Tuesday
with increasing clouds and showers expected Tuesday Night into
Wednesday. A cold front will approach from the west on Thursday
and move across the region later in the day with more showers
expected. High pressure will build in from the west on Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR today and into the first half of tonight. Conditions
will gradually lower to MVFR after midnight tonight, and may lower
to IFR at the Down East terminals toward day break Sunday morning.

SHORT TERM: Expect IFR conditions on Sunday. VFR conditions are
expected on Monday. VFR/MVFR conditions are possible on Tuesday
and Wednesday.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: The wind and seas will remain below small craft
advisory levels through tonight. Patchy fog is possible over the
waters late tonight.

SHORT TERM: Have used the Nam to initialize winds however will
reduce model winds by 15 percent due to cold sea surface
temperatures (Mid 40s). Expect southerly wind wave to be the
primary wave system on Sunday and Monday with a secondary
southeasterly long period swell (1-2 feet/10-11 seconds). Long
period swell (around 2 feet/10 seconds) is expected to be the
primary wave system Tuesday.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...Beach Hazards Statement from 8 AM EDT this morning through
     this evening for MEZ029-030.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

Near Term...CB
Short Term...Mignone
Long Term...Mignone
Aviation...CB/Mignone
Marine...CB/Mignone


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