Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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FXUS61 KCTP 250509
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
109 AM EDT Fri Sep 25 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
A large area of high pressure will remain off of the east coast
through the upcoming weekend. Increasing meridional upper level
flow is expected by early next week, as a deepening trough
forms over the plains and an upper ridge builds off the east
coast. At the surface, a slow moving cold front is likely push
through Pennsylvania either Tuesday or early Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
Large surface high centered near Bermuda will ensure fair
weather and light wind across central Pa tonight. Evening
satellite loop and latest RAP suggest cirrus linked to the
remnants of Beta will continue to stream into southeast Pa
overnight. Elsewhere, mainly clear skies and associated
radiational cooling should lead to patchy valley fog late
tonight, as the latest NAMNest and SREF prob charts indicate.
Min temps around sunrise will vary from the upper 40s in the
northern mountains, to the 50s elsewhere.

Latest guidance indicates the high cloud shield from Beta will
continue to affect southern Pa on Friday. Otherwise, expect
mainly sunny skies, filtered through a bit of upper level smoke
from western fires. Last visible satellite images of this
evening show the smoky skies across the Ohio and western Pa.

Max temps are expected to be a couple of degrees higher than
today due to increased sunshine, southerly llvl flow and very
similar, mean 925-850 mb temps with vertical mixing through that
level.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Following a good deal of cloud cover early Saturday as the
remnants and precipitation associated with Beta pass southeast
of PA Dutch Country, should see mostly sunny skies return
through the afternoon as temperatures warm into the mid-upper
70s. Backing southwest flow aloft will take shape for the second
half of the upcoming weekend as troughing digs through the Great
Lakes and Ohio Valley and ridging builds over the western
Atlantic, helping promote temperatures climbing well above
normal into the upper 70s to mid 80s in spots Sunday.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
All medium range guidance shows increasing meridional flow
early next week, as a deepening upper level trough forms over
the plains and an anomalous upper ridge builds over the western
Atlantic. At the surface, a slow-moving cold front will likely
approach Monday, then cross the state either Tuesday or early
Wednesday. Latest EC/ECENS are slower with the front than the
NAEFS. Have therefore gone with an increasing chance of showers
Monday PM, but the best chance of rain looks to be with the
fropa either Tuesday or Tuesday night. Latest GEFS suggest
rainfall will likely not be heavy enough to put much of a dent
in rainfall deficits across central Pa. However, given the
synoptic pattern of a deep trough and slow moving cold front
tapping Gulf of Mexico moisture, wouldn`t be surprised if some
parts of the region see 1+ inch amounts.

A period of chilly weather with scattered showers over the
northern and western mountains appear likely late next week, as
anomalous upper level trough swings into the northeast CONUS.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
No real change planned for the 06Z TAF package. Main thing is
some fog, mainly BFD so far.

Earlier discussion below.

VFR conds, mainly clear skies and light winds expected overnight
into this evening. The one potential issue, though, is patchy
low clouds and fog during the pre-dawn hours (generally 08-12z).
It appears that KBFD and KIPT have the best chance of seeing
IFR/LIFR conditions.

Surface winds should average 5 kt or less.

Outlook...

Sat...VFR.

Sun and Mon...Potential brief restrictions in scattered
showers.

Tue...Restrictions more likely, with more persistent showers
anticipated.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Higher dewpoints the next few days. Not much in the way of
wind. Some chance of showers after today. The showers will
help a little with the dry conditions.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Fitzgerald
NEAR TERM...Fitzgerald
SHORT TERM...Banghoff
LONG TERM...Fitzgerald
AVIATION...Martin/Gartner
FIRE WEATHER...Martin


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