Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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FXUS61 KCTP 232001
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
301 PM EST Fri Feb 23 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Periods of rain will continue through Sunday. A very saturated
ground and swollen streams will support an elevated risk for
flooding through the weekend. A break in the wet weather pattern
is expected early next week. Above average temperatures are
expected to continue through much of next week before a relative
cooling trend toward climatology into early March.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Expect area of steadier rain to move across east-central PA late
this afternoon into the early evening. There will be a general
lull in the precip tonight but it will stay cool and damp with
areas of drizzle and fog.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
*Flooding possible this weekend*

The focus this weekend will be on potential flooding with
additional rainfall amounts of 1-2 inches forecast over most of
the area. The heaviest rainfall period/greatest risk for short-
duration flooding should be Saturday night through early Sunday
morning. The flood watch was expanded to include all of Central
Pennsylvania through Sunday evening. Forecast rainfall and very
wet antecedent conditions (very saturated ground/soils and much
above normal streamflow/swelling streams) will support an
elevated risk for longer duration, widespread flooding of small
streams, creeks and river tributaries. Expansive low lying/poor
drainage flooding is also possible.

Temperatures will slowly climb into the mid 40s to low 50s on
Saturday before peaking in the mid 50s and low 60s on Sunday
based on multi model consensus blend.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The wet pattern looks like it will take a break during the first
part of next week before precip risk increases next Wed-Fri.
Model and ensemble guidance show a low pressure system tracking
east-northeast from the TX/OK panhandle across the Central
Plains/Midwest into the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley region by
Thursday. The ECMWF/CMC solutions want to develop a secondary
low to the south of PA from the southern Mid Atlantic piedmont
to the coast while the GFS is much farther north with any
secondary development. This may factor into some potential ptype
issues or wintry wx but only something to watch at this range.

Temperatures will continue to run above average next week with
signs of trending cooler/closer to daily climate normals into
early March.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Widespread IFR conditions for low cigs and vsby across much of
the area for next 24 hours. After rainfall moves through the
area this afternoon and evening expect lows clouds and fog
across the area. Strong low level jet will bring LLWS to some
locations as well.


Outlook...

Fri...Widespread restrictions in periods of rain. Some
improvement poss SW late.

Sat...Widespread restrictions with rain.

Sun...Widespread restrictions likely in periods of rain.

Mon-Tue...No sig wx.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Active hydrologic pattern through Sunday. Recent snow melt and
rainfall has soils quite wet. Streamflows are also running
high. Forecast rainfall of 1-2 inches will produce significant
rises and will need to monitor levels closely. Some poor
drainage and small stream flooding is likely.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through Sunday evening for PAZ004>006-010>012-
017>019-024>028-033>037-041-042-045-046-049>053-056>059-
063>066.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Steinbugl
NEAR TERM...Steinbugl
SHORT TERM...Steinbugl
LONG TERM...Steinbugl
AVIATION...Ross
HYDROLOGY...Ross



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