Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cheyenne, WY

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FXUS65 KCYS 242324

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
524 PM MDT Sun Jun 24 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 235 PM MDT Sun Jun 24 2018

Upper low evident on satellite over east-central Wyoming this afternoon
with some bands of showers and storms over mainly the southern parts
of the CWA. little rain has fallen over the north and with only some
showers and maybe a few storms expected into this evening have cancelled
the Flood Watch as the threat for flooding appears to be quite low
now. Otherwise, the upper low will move east slowly overnight with
pcpn coming to and end. HRRR holds on to some pcpn over SE Wy this
evening, so have added in some low pops there.

Monday will see a return to drier and warmer weather with the upper
low continuing to drift east. Not out of the question to see some
showers over the eastern Panhandle in the afternoon with somewhat
cooler mid-level temps. Clear Monday night and Tuesday with a short
upper ridge passing across. Quite warm Tuesday with max temps low
to mid 90s over much of the NE Panhandle as 7H temps warm to over 20C.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 235 PM MDT Sun Jun 24 2018

Zonal flow aloft Wednesday between upper ridge over the southern
Rockies/high plains and trough north of the US-Canadian border.
The flow aloft backs to southwest Wednesday night/Thursday with
strengthening ridge over central/southern Plains and upper trough
moving into the Pacific coast states. East-west oriented surface
front from central SD into southern MT will drift a bit further
south Thursday, however dry southwest flow aloft will prevail. The
southern extent of convection remains just north of Converse/Niobrara
counties through Friday. Front pushes south into the high plains
late Friday afternoon and evening with scattered convection developing
east of a Lusk WY-Kimball NE line. Front drifts west and stalls along
the Laramie Range Saturday, with scattered convection along and east
of the front into Saturday night. Models hint at a MCS developing
east of the front over the NE Panhandle. After isolated morning
showers or tstorms northeast plains, drier southwest flow will spread
across the CWA Sunday. Well above normal temperatures are forecast
Wednesday and Thursday with 700mb temperatures between 20 and 22
deg Celsius Thursday. High in the 90s will be common east of I-25,
with a few locations in the NE Panhandle equaling or exceeding 100
deg. Temperatures then cool back to near normal this weekend.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 523 PM MDT Sun Jun 24 2018

VFR. Wind gusts to 22 knots through 03Z, then up to 25 knots after
15Z Monday.


Issued at 215 PM MDT Sun Jun 24 2018

An upper low pressure area over eastern Wyoming will move east overnight.
As it does so scattered showers and a few thunderstorms will come to
an end over the districts. The next few days will see a return to warmer
and mainly dry conditions which could increase fire weather concerns
a bit over western areas by mid-week.




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