Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Rapids, MI

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288
FXUS63 KGRR 240002
AFDGRR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
702 PM EST Fri Feb 23 2018

LATEST UPDATE...
Aviation

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 328 PM EST Fri Feb 23 2018

After a quiet night and Saturday, rain will move back into the area
Saturday night.  A couple rumbles of thunder will also be possible.
This will be a quick moving system, so rainfall amounts should only
be around a quarter inch.  Sunday and Sunday night look dry again.
The next chance of rain should hold off until the Wednesday and
Thursday time frame.

Daytime high temperatures will stay in the 40s much of the next
seven days, but we may soar into the 50s Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 328 PM EST Fri Feb 23 2018

The short term will be quiet with the exception of Saturday night
when an occluded front comes through.

High pressure will gradually move in by Saturday.  Temps will remain
5 to 10 degrees above normal, with Saturday highs in the 40s.

An occluded front swings through Saturday night giving the region a
quick period of showers and perhaps isolated thunderstorms.  The
amount of rain will be held down with the fast movement of the
front, and a general quarter inch of rain is expected.  Localized
higher amounts could occur within thunderstorms.

It will become very windy into Sunday as a 982 mb surface low passes
to our NW.  We may approach wind advisory criteria with frequent
gusts to around 40 mph.  However we look to stay dry Sunday into
Sunday night as high pressure builds over the OH Valley.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 328 PM EST Fri Feb 23 2018

A period of showers returns for Wednesday and Thursday as another
surface low moves in from the southwest.  We will have to watch the
low`s track trends as the current movement takes it from Chicago to
Saginaw.  A slight track change to the south or east could result in
snow from this system.  At it`s current path we should largely see
rain, then change to snow Thursday night into Friday.  At this point
the snow potential in this time frame looks to be light.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 702 PM EST Fri Feb 23 2018

IFR conditions will slowly improve to MVFR overnight. MVFR
conditions are expected to continue on Saturday with ceilings 1500
to 2500 feet AGL. Winds will go northwest tonight and then east on
Saturday around 10 knots.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 328 PM EST Fri Feb 23 2018

Levels along the Grand, Thornapple, and Kalamazoo Rivers have
crested in upriver locations and will crest over the next couple
days downriver. Many river forecast points in these basins are
seeing river levels that challenge modern records over the last 5 to
50 years. Moderate to major flooding is ongoing in the most flood-
prone locations. In Kalamazoo this is a record high river level, but
flood impacts compared to Sep 2008 are reportedly not quite so bad
due to recent flood mitigation projects. Still, many roads are
closed and properties are taking on water. In Kent County, the crest
on Saturday is expected to climb just a little under the levels of
April 2013, but flood impacts will nonetheless be substantial near
the river especially in Comstock Park.

A tenth of an inch of rain fell Friday morning, and a quarter to
locally half inch of rain is expected Saturday night. This may not
increase the flood impacts much if at all, but it could delay the
recession of river levels.

Please see the latest flood statements or river hydrographs for
details. Hydrographs are available by going to weather.gov/grr and
clicking on the "Rivers and Lakes" link above the map of flood
warnings.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
LM...None.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JK
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...Ostuno
HYDROLOGY...CAS



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