Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tiyan, Guam

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FXPQ50 PGUM 242033

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tiyan GU
633 AM ChST Fri Sep 25 2020

.Marianas Synopsis...
Partly cloudy skies with patchy showers and light winds prevail
across the Marianas this morning. Buoys show seas between 2 and 3


Light and variable winds through Sunday will result in island
convection over Guam through the weekend. Otherwise, a fairly dry
pattern will dominate the region for the next couple of days. The
only real weather producer over the next several days is a broad area
of weak upper-level divergence over the region beginning tonight,
combining with a slight increase in mid-level moisture. This will
bring the risk of isolated thunderstorms to the region from tonight
through the end of next week.


Buoys show seas between 2 and 3 feet this morning. Seas are expected
to remain at these levels for the next several days, resulting in a
low risk of rip currents through at least the beginning of next week.
Winds will be light to gentle through Tuesday.


.Eastern Micronesia...
A broad surface trough extends across much of eastern Micronesia and
is producing cloudy conditions with scattered showers and isolated

A weak trough will continue to produce sporadic areas of
convection today. How much convection is still a question but the
GFS, with its less active pattern, makes the most sense. The Euro
still pushes for more organized convection through Saturday but, the
CIMSS MIMIC Layer Precipitable water shows a drier area moving in
from the south. This dry air is associated with a ridge that supports
the GFS forecast and will reduce convection and create nicer
conditions. The fair conditions from this ridge will continue until
Sunday when the next disturbance will begin to form near Majuro. This
next system is forecast to organize and strengthen across the region
and by Monday will begin to affect Pohnpei and Kosrae.

Seas will remain below hazardous levels through Tuesday and will
stay in the 3 to 5 foot range.


.Western Micronesia...
A disturbance is located between Koror and Yap and is responsible
for showers along with isolated thunderstorms in the region.
Models indicate that this trough will become stationary across the
region with the heaviest showers occurring Friday evening with a
second round quickly coming in on Monday. By Tuesday a third and
final round is possible; however, models only show a weak signal
for showers. Overall, after Friday night, atmospheric conditions
will become less favorable for widespread convection.

The weather in Chuuk today will be caused by a trough that will
linger today and tonight. The sounding for Chuuk shows plenty of
moisture available for showers today. However, by Saturday, dry air
will move back into Chuuk`s region and will support partly cloudy
skies and isolated showers that will last through Tuesday.

Combined seas across the region will be stay in the 2 to 4 foot
range across west Micronesia.


Marianas Waters...None.


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