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000
FXUS63 KJKL 201448
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
1048 AM EDT Sat Oct 20 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1048 AM EDT SAT OCT 20 2018

Some very light returns showing up on radar across the
northeastern two thirds of the forecast area. Surface observations
indicate light rain recently at Lexington, Morehead and
Middlesboro. Based on this have updated the forecast to include
isolated showers for all but the southwestern part of the forecast
area for the rest of the morning and into the afternoon. Only
minor changes were made to other forecast elements at this time.

UPDATE Issued at 748 AM EDT SAT OCT 20 2018

Much of the rain shower activity has been on the decline this
morning, as we loose better divergence aloft from the upper level
jet streak. Adjusted POPs to better match the current radar
trends, but otherwise the grids are on track at this time.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 412 AM EDT SAT OCT 20 2018

The surface analysis shows a prefrontal trough continues to push
south and east this morning with another cold front to the
northwest across portions of the Midwest and Great Lakes. We
continue to see rain push across the southern half of the CWA this
morning and this activity will continue to trend south. This has
been aided by the surface trough and some upper level divergence
from a jet streak across the Ohio Valley. Given the latest
mesoanalysis shows loss of some of the divergence would suspect
this activity is on track to relent through the morning. The
thermal gradient will tighten ahead of the next front passage and
we will see strengthening low level jet in response to strong
upper level jet aloft. This will lead to gusty winds this
afternoon and evening, with gust of 20 to 30 mph possible. The
next front and a embedded short wave will also lead to additional
gusty rain showers late this afternoon and evening as well.

Then final second front will usher in a cold airmass tonight into
Sunday. This will drop temperatures into the lower 30s in most
spots tonight. The potential for frost looks low given the
potential for mixing and even some lingering cloud cover under
northwest flow. We finally see clearing skies on Sunday, as a
Canadian high pressure settles into the Ohio and Tennessee
Valleys. However, this will lead to what would be normal high
temperatures for early December, with highs in many locations
struggling to climb out of the upper 40s.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 338 AM EDT SAT OCT 20 2018

A sprawling area of high pressure will be the primary weather maker
in the extended for eastern Kentucky and surrounding areas for most
of the upcoming work week. We can expect mostly clear skies, light
winds, and dry conditions through afternoon. Widespread frost will
be possible late Sunday through early Monday morning. Low
temperatures on Monday morning could fall into the upper 20s in some
of our deeper and more sheltered valleys. Overall Mondays lows
should bottom out in the lower 30s across the area. We may see some
frost around eastern Kentucky late Tuesday night into early
Wednesday morning as well in some our northern and western valleys.
An area of low pressure is forecast to move across the region
Thursday night and Friday. This system will bring a chance of rain
to eastern Kentucky to end the week and going into next weekend.
Daily highs should range from the upper 50s to mid 60s Sunday and
Monday, in the mid 50s to lower 60s Tuesday and Wednesday, and
between 55 and 60 on Friday. Nightly lows should range from the mid
30s to lower 40s Sunday night through Wednesday night. Temperatures
should be a bit warmer Thursday night and Friday night, as winds
shift to the southeast or south, and cloud cover begins to move into
the area ahead of an approaching weather system. This system will
bring a chance of rain to eastern Kentucky from Thursday evening
through Friday night.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
ISSUED AT 722 AM EDT SAT OCT 20 2018

We continue to see rain showers move across southeast Kentucky
this morning and this shower activity will continue to track
south and east exiting the region through mid morning. Overall
the CIGs have been a mix of MVFR to IFR and this will be the story
through late morning to early this afternoon. Then we will see
improvements to VFR later this afternoon and evening. However, a
shortwave and another front will move across the area this
afternoon and early this evening leading to some isolated to
scattered rain showers in the far east. The biggest issue will be
gusty winds ahead and behind the approaching cold front. This
will lead to gusts of 20 to 25 knots or higher in some cases late
this afternoon and evening, with winds shifting from the west to
the northwest through the evening. These winds are expected to
subside calm to the 5 to 10 knot range late in the TAF period.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SBH
SHORT TERM...DJ
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...DJ