Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS61 KPBZ 251742
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
132 PM EDT Fri May 25 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will maintain dry weather and warm temperatures
today. The threat for showers and storms returns this weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Dewpoints have shot up today with increased moisture out of the
south but despite the low level moisture surge increasing
instability...the ridge axis currently transitioning over the
area should keep a lid on convection today. Highest probability
is south and east of Pittsburgh, but opted to not mention in the
forecast with the latest update as chances look too low. Latest
guidance has pushed back timing of the next shortwave
approaching from west so have kept a dry forecast in place
overnight. Lows will be well above normal with increasing cloud
coverage.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

Scattered showers and thunderstorms expected on Saturday as a
shortwave crosses and triggers convection...increasing in
coverage during peak heating in the afternoon/evening.
Temperatures will continue to be well above average.

More of the same expected on Sunday with little change in the
overall pattern or forecast for Sunday.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Hot and humid conditions with diurnally supported convection will
persist through the extended with the best chance of organized
precipitation later in the week. Only minor adjustments were
made...with PoPs lowered on Monday (but not removed) as there
looks to be a better cap on convection.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
High pres will maintain VFR today. There is a low chance of vis
restriction tonight with patchy fog as moisture increases.
Confidence in this is too low for inclusion at this time. VFR will
continue Saturday, with some scattered convection in the
afternoon/evening.

OUTLOOK...
Spotty restrictions possible late Saturday into Sunday
with a passing trough.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
OH...None.
PA...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$


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