Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS61 KPBZ 200128
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
928 PM EDT Tue Mar 19 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry weather will continue before the next system brings
precipitation and colder air to the area starting late
Wednesday through the end of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
High pressure will promote dry weather overnight, although some
high clouds are already streaming in from the west on zonal flow
aloft. These will not hinder radiational cooling to a huge
degree, and allowed temperature forecast in the 20s to stand
with only minor modification.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Southerly flow and warm air advection will resume as sfc high
pressure transitions east of the forecast area. Temperatures
will reach into the upper 40s and 50s by Wednesday afternoon.

The next chance for precipitation comes early Thursday as
longwave troughing deepens and a shortwave and associated sfc
low swings across the forecast area. Precipitation will be
largely be rain outside of a mix along/north of I-80 and the
ridges. After a brief lull another shortwave will bring snow to
the region on Friday with colder air in place aloft...but
accumulations will be limited by sfc temperatures.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Temperatures will moderate a bit over the weekend as the deep
eastern CONUS troughing progrades into the Atlantic. NW flow aloft
will flatten with the approach of a shortwave ridge. Conditions
will remain mostly dry, though a few quick passing shortwaves
on the NW periphery of our area may enhance cloud cover and a
few brief showers in what will largely be a dry weekend.

The next chance for precipitation will come Monday as southern
stream energy interacts with a northern stream shortwave. However,
global model solutions differ on timing and placement so will hold
off on details and go with a general blend in the forecast package.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR conditions expected through the TAF period. High clouds can
be expected overnight, mainly in the form of cirrus. Clouds will
begin to lower and thicken after 18Z as a mid-level shortwave
approaches. Some light precipitation may reach terminals like
ZZV and FKL just prior to 00Z Thursday, but no significant
restrictions are expected through that time. Light wind
overnight will turn toward the south with time on Wednesday.

.Outlook...
Flight restrictions likely starting Wednesday night through the
end of the week with a cold frontal passage and a return of
cold NW flow.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
OH...None.
PA...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$


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