Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS61 KPBZ 202209
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
609 PM EDT Thu Sep 20 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Warm afternoon temperatures with highs in the 80s continue
through Friday outside the mountains. A cold front will bring a
line of storms Friday evening. Cooler, more seasonal, weather
returns this weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...

Earlier thunderstorms near Lake Erie from a lake breeze have
fizzled out; a few rain showers remain in Eastern Ohio and are
expected wrap up in the next hour. Otherwise, a quiet but humid
night. Fog is not expected to not a problem.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Overall dry weather will continue through early tomorrow as the
mid/upper ridge shifts eastward. A cold front will track from
the Wrn Great Lakes/Upper Midwest into the Ern Great
Lakes/Upper OH Valley region late Friday afternoon and evening.
Chances for showers and thunderstorms will increase ahead of the
frontal passage with instability and shear sufficient for
severe thunderstorm potential. At this time it appears the
primary threat being locally damaging wind gusts. SPC has
maintained a Day 2 Slight Risk for most of the area.

Latest model runs have trended several hours slower than
previous thinking... bringing the main line of thunderstorms
into the area from the NW after around 00z... and into the
Pittsburgh Metro area by roughly 9-10 PM. With this later
timing, the greatest uncertainty will be in how conducive the
environment remains for severe storms as convection crosses
through the forecast area with rapidly decreasing instabilities
after sunset. The threat for severe storms will continue to
lessen overnight as the line of storms shifts eastward.

As the front clears the area Friday night, shower and
thunderstorm chances will decrease. The front is expected to
stall south of the forecast area, maintaining higher PoPs for
southern zones, especially higher elevations, Saturday and
Saturday night. Dry weather is expected to continue for northern
areas of the forecast area as high pressure builds in from the
north. Temperatures will drop to below normal values this
weekend.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Rain chances continue for areas south of I-70 on Sunday as the
front remains stalled to our south while areas to the north
remain dry. A series of shortwaves will maintain increased PoPs
through mid-week before another cold front sweeps through the
region on Wednesday. Temperatures should average just around
seasonal values before a post-frontal cool-down Wednesday
night.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
High confidence forecast. Convection in northwestern CWA will
continue to weaken as it enters a more stable environment, with
no impacts expected at airports. Otherwise, eroding high
pressure will maintain VFR conditions this evening through
Friday morning.

SW winds will increase by midday Friday ahead of an approaching
cold front. The cold front is progged to impact airports during
the evening hours, with restrictions likely in thunderstorms.

Outlook...
No widespread IFR weather is expected.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
OH...None.
PA...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$


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