Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS61 KPBZ 210938
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
538 AM EDT Sat Jul 21 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Periodic rain chance into early next week with the encroachment
and passage of slow moving low pressure.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Upper low will sit and rotate over Ohio today. This will
provide the risk for showers and possibly a thunderstorm
throughout the entire day. The trough axis, extending southward
from the center of the low will remain over the western half of
the region and this will be the primary area where large scale
ascension will rest. Because of this, have kept higher PoPs
generally over my Ohio counties and have included the mention
of thunder. Atmosphere does not destabilize much today, and
there will be little to no sun to stir things up, but low-level
moisture convergence will continue under the 500 low which will
cause an increase in parcel ascension and thus possibly lead to
iso-sct convection.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
The aforementioned upper low will slowly transition south into
Monday, before phasing out in the increasing southerly flow
aloft. This will result in continued unsettled conditions with
periodic showers and thunderstorms. A diurnal trend to POPs and
storms was maintained in the forecast, which seem appropriate
with this pattern. Extensive cloud coverage will keep high
temperatures slightly below average and lows slightly above
through the weekend.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Minimal change made to the extended today with decent model
continuity with previous runs. Shower/storm chances will
continue daily as the upper low over Ohio continues south and
another upper low approaches southeastern Canada. The best
chance for areawide activity will be Wednesday with a surface
cold front. Temperatures will be near seasonable levels.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Mainly VFR conditions are expected for most ports through the
TAF period. Low level moisture in place across OH should
continue the MVFR cigs this morning before mixing lifts cigs to
VFR by this aftn. Otherwise, swd drifting low pressure across
the OH Valley should result in mainly diurnally driven sct
showers with local restrictions. Enough instability is progged
across OH for a VCTS mention at ZZV during the aftn. Outside of
OH, any tstm coverage is expected to be too isolated for TAF
inclusion.

MVFR is expected across NW PA overnight with increasing low
level moisture.

OUTLOOK...
Periodic restriction potential continues through mid week with
the slow moving low and subsequent upper troughing.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
OH...None.
PA...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$


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