Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS61 KPBZ 161234
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
734 AM EST Tue Jan 16 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will bring relatively light snow to the region
today followed by bitter cold on Wednesday. Warmer temperatures
and dry conditions expected the remainder of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL TONIGHT/...
Morning update with changes to  PoPs based on slower snow
erosion. Very little perpendicular push to the front and
associated snow will mean longer residence time over the eastern
half of the forecast area. PoPs have been raised and slowed to
account for this change. Kept snow totals largely intact, but
did make some adjustments upward for eastern locations where
snow will hold the longest. This pushes the Advisory areas up to
4-6" total while most other locations have storm total snows of
2-4". The fluffy nature of this snow will allow some to see the
higher end of those ranges, but with a long duration event
(started midday yesterday), 12hr Advisory criteria will likely
not be met outside of current Advisories, thus no changes to
headlines were made.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Snow showers will taper off and cold air will move in behind
the front early Wednesday...with single digit overnight lows
forecast. Below normal temperatures will continue through
Wednesday with northwesterly flow maintaining potential for
light snow...primarily along and north of I-80. A warming trend
in temperatures will commence on Thursday as ridging builds back
in over the forecast area.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
High pressure looks to be the dominant feature for much of the
period with a building southeastern ridge resulting in well
above normal temperatures by the weekend. Moist advection
around the western flank of the ridge will keep at least chance
PoPs in for for the early weekend. By this time, temperatures
should be warm enough to support all rain.

Models show relatively good agreement with the next frontal
system impacting the region next Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Widespread MVFR to IFR restrictions in snow can be expected
until low pressure pulls a cold front across the region this
afternoon. Conditions will improve during the afternoon and
evening as subsidence and dry advection ensue in the wake of the
front.

.OUTLOOK...
Northwest flow may lead to further restrictions Wednesday.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for
     MDZ001.
OH...None.
PA...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for PAZ076.
WV...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for WVZ510-
     511.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for
     WVZ512>514.

&&

$$



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