Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pendleton, OR

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FXUS66 KPDT 221724 AAA
AFDPDT

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated
National Weather Service Pendleton OR
1024 AM PDT Sat Sep 22 2018

Updated Aviation Discussion

.SHORT TERM...Morning Update...An upper level trough will slowly
work across the Pacific Northwest during the next 24 hours. Expect a
fair amount of cloud cover today with a gradual decrease tonight.
Isolated to scattered showers will be possible along a slow moving
surface front. These showers will mainly occur from central Oregon
northeast into the Blue mountains and Wallowa county today. These
showers will drift southeast through Wallowa and Grant counties
tonight. Also varying amounts of slop over showers can be expected
over the Cascade east slopes due to westerly low level flow. Winds
will become breezy through the Cascade gaps and over the Columbia
Basin this afternoon. The forecast package handles these trends
well. Updates focused on adjustments to shower coverages. Also a few
minor adjustments were made to sky cover, high temps and winds. 90

.LONG TERM...Previous Discussion...Good agreement through Thursday
with rex block offshore with a low off the Cali coast. This will
help keep us under stable northwest flow for most of the long term
period with the main storm track off to our east. Dry conditions
expected under mostly clear skies. Winds will be light and warming
trend expected with highs in the 70s to lower 80s in lower
elevations. Models differentiate towards Friday into the weekend.
Generally speaking, models are indicating a backdoor cold front
sliding down south out of western Canada into the Pacific northwest
as the high pressure off the coast retrogrades west a bit. Timing
and strength of the front over the area varies model to model and
run to run. GFS gives the area a stronger shot of cold air while the
EC gives a glancing blow. Both models are suggesting at a
reinforcing shot of colder air possible next weekend. For now, no
real strong precip signals on either run for the CWA so have kept
dry forecast this far out as wait to see how models resolve the
system as we get closer. Have increased cloud cover and lowered
temps a touch on Friday, as well increased winds with the possible
frontal passage.

&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAFs...VFR conditions expected at all TAF sites
through the next 24 hours. Mid and high level clouds will persist at
all TAF sites this afternoon, then decrease overnight.as well. With
the  today, a few light showers possible over the eastern foothills
of the Cascades as well as over the Blue Mountains. VCSH possible at
times near KDLS, KPDT and KALW. Wind gusts to 15 to 25 kts after 20z
due to passing cold front.   76

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  73  48  67  43 /  10  10  10   0
ALW  73  51  68  46 /  10  10  10   0
PSC  76  49  72  43 /   0   0  10   0
YKM  74  42  71  41 /  10  10  10   0
HRI  76  49  71  43 /  10   0  10   0
ELN  69  45  67  43 /  10  10  10   0
RDM  68  34  66  30 /  20  10  10   0
LGD  68  42  65  37 /  30  20  10   0
GCD  71  41  65  35 /  20  20  10   0
DLS  72  49  70  45 /  20  10  10   0

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$

90/84/76


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