Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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FXUS61 KRLX 231701
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
1201 PM EST Fri Feb 23 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Nearly stationary front meanders about the area through the
weekend, as surface waves pass. Areas of significant rainfall
possible into the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 1200 PM Friday...

Extended Flood Watch in time from 12Z to 21Z Sunday. Also got
the gusty winds with the thunderstorms this afternoon into this
evening in the package.

As of 1025 AM Friday...

Adjusted PoPs to allow rainfall to get farther east, to about
the Ohio River, with the wave existing this morning up north,
and the second wave this afternoon into this evening. Still
allow for the chance for thunder near and on the warm side of
the front this afternoon into this evening. Thin CAPE but
adequate shear, freezing level around 11 kft, and a dry mid
level could lead to gusty winds, and perhaps small hail. Will
add the gusty winds to the grids and forecast for this
afternoon. Bulk shear will be higher tonight and Saturday.

As of 420 AM Friday...

Models show a front pushing back northward today as a surface
wave brings more rain to northern portions of the forecast area.
While most of the rain will be north of the front, some
instability develops this afternoon south of the front, so can
not rule out some showers or even thunderstorms there as well.
Will continue the flood watch as ground is saturated and
several streams and rivers remain in flood in southeastern Ohio.

Behind the wave this evening, the cold front pushes back
southward into the region before again stalling. Another wave is
set to move along the front late Friday night into Saturday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 415 AM Friday...

We continue to highlight the flooding potential over the
weekend. An impressive low level moisture feed into the Ohio
Valley will interact with a quasi stationary baroclinic zone to
produce rounds of downpours and some storms. It appears there
will be two significant rounds of heavy rain. One mid to late
morning Saturday into early afternoon across much of the area.
The other slated for Saturday night, with the focus across
southeast Ohio, as the frontal boundary pivots northwestward as
a warm front. This will be followed by a cold frontal passage
during the day Sunday, with a continued threat for showers. Qpf
amounts around 2 inches are forecast across southeast Ohio,
tailing off as once progresses east of the Ohio River. This will
result in a renewed threat for flooding across southeast Ohio,
with main stem rivers in the zone for significant flooding come
Sunday night and Monday. This is especially true for the Ohio
River, where major flooding is forecast along many of our
official forecast points. The current forecast levels compare
closely to Ivan in 2004, which produced significant flooding
along the Mighty Ohio.

Temperatures will remain very warm over the weekend, with a
slight cool down behind the front for Monday. Some showers may
linger across the mountains on Monday before the upper trof
finally sweeps everything east.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 435 AM Friday...

A brief lull in the active weather early next week before
another wet system crosses mid to late week. It will remain very
mild for this time of year.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 515 AM Friday...

A frontal boundary across the area will gradually push northward
this morning. LIFR conditions can be expected north and west of the
front, with generally VFR or MVFR conditions south and east of
the front.

A wave will move along the front today providing rain to Ohio
and northern WV. The front will push back southward behind this
wave this evening, again stalling over the area. Once again
Friday night, expect LIFR north and west of the front with
generally VFR or MVFR south and east of the front.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: The timing of the frontal boundary moving
could vary, meaning LIFR conditions could last longer or lift
quicker than forecast.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04
EST 1HRLY       12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    L    L    L
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    L    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    M    M    H    H    M    H    L    L    L
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    L    L    L    L

AFTER 18Z SATURDAY...
IFR possible at times in showers into the weekend.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...Flood Watch through Sunday afternoon for WVZ005>011.
OH...Flood Watch through Sunday afternoon for OHZ066-067-075-076-
     083>087.
KY...Flood Watch through Sunday afternoon for KYZ101>103-105.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/RPY/30
NEAR TERM...TRM/RPY
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...RPY


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