Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000
FXUS61 KRLX 191810
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
210 PM EDT Tue Jun 19 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
A front will drift south into the region today, providing
showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

As of 210 PM Tuesday...

Not a whole lot of changes in the overall forecast from this
morning. Cold front is currently draped across Northern West
Virginia and will continue to sag southward this afternoon and
evening. However, this boundary eventually stalls this evening
and retreats back to the north. Expecting on going numerous
thunderstorms out ahead of this front, with activity growing as
we near max heating for the day. Although wind shear is weak,
instability is quite high with a very moist atmosphere in place.
PWAT values close to 2 inches, short corfidi vectors support
training cells and deep warm cloud layer will also elevate the
flash flood threat. However, very tough to pin point an exact
location and a watch will not be issued, but localized flash
flood event is very possible.

Severe potential is modest this afternoon and evening. Biggest
threat will be due to wet microbursts. SPC meso analysis
indicates DCAPE values across our Central CWA above 1000...with
PWATs as high as they are, would not be surprised to see a few wet
microbursts from precip loading. However, potential severe
storms should be isolated and probability for any convective
watch appears quite low.


&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 AM Tuesday...

A frontal boundary will slowly sag southward across the area Wednesday
and Wednesday night, providing showers and thunderstorms. Concerned
with a flood threat since the front will provide a focusing mechanism
and models showing 1.9 inches of precipitable water. Meso Nam is
showing some locations receiving over 4 inches of rain between
now and Wednesday evening. Will need to monitor this situation
closely. The front is expected to stall near or just south of the area
for Wednesday night or Thursday.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 300 AM Tuesday...

The front will push back northward on Friday as a warm front.
This will put the area back into warm sector for the weekend,
with chances of showers and thunderstorms, more numerous in the
afternoon and evening hours.

Another weak cold front is expected to push through the region
late Sunday or Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 140 PM Tuesday...

Showers and storms are popping up across the region as a cold
front moves in from the north. These showers and storms could
bring brief IFR periods to sites, but will have to handle this
with amendments when it appears one may pass overhead.

Depending on what sites see rainfall and the extent of cloud
cover tonight, dense river valley fog will be possible at any
terminal that receives rain.


FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...


FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing and extent of convection today may
vary from forecast.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    L
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    H    H    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    H    M    M    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    H

AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY...
Brief IFR conditions expected in thunderstorms throughout the
week.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RPY/MPK
NEAR TERM...MPK
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...MPK


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