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FXXX12 KWNP 201230

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2018 Mar 20 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
#             Forecast Discussion
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was very low. Region 2702 (N19W80) decayed to plage. No
CMEs were detected in available coronagraph imagery.

Solar activity is expected to remain very low all three days (20-22

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at moderate to high levels,
with a maximum flux of approx 19,500 pfu at 19/2120 UTC. The greater
than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background values.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach high levels on
day one (20 Mar) due to CH HSS influences. The electron flux is expected
to decrease to normal to high levels on day two (21 Mar) and increase to
moderate to high levels by day three (22 Mar) due to effects of CIR
followed by onset of another CH HSS. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux
is expected to continue at background levels all three days.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters were indicative of the waning influences of an
isolated, negative polarity CH HSS. Total field strength ranged
primarily from 4 to 6 nT. The Bz component underwent mainly weak
deviations. Solar wind speed slowly and unsteadily decreased from just
over 525 km/s early in the period to around 450 km/s by the periods
end. The phi angle was negative.

Solar wind speed is anticipated to continue an unsteady decline on day
one (20 Mar) as effects from the isolated, negative polarity CH HSS
continue to wane. Day two (21 Mar) is likely to see the return of a
enhanced conditions due to effects of a passing CIR ahead of another CH
HSS. Solar wind speed is expected to elevate further on day three (22
Mar) as the western branch of a northward extension of the south polar
CH HSS rotates into geoeffective position.


.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.

The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled on day one
(20 Mar) due to waning CH HSS influences. Day two (21 Mar) is expected
to see an escalation in responses to the unsettled and active levels,
with a chance for G1 conditions, due to CIR and early-stage CH HSS
effects. The geomagnetic field is expected to be primarily unsettled to
active, with a period of G1 conditions likely on day three (22 Mar) as
CH HSS effects peak. is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.