Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
217 FXXX12 KWNP 131231 DAYDIS :Product: Forecast Discussion :Issued: 2025 Jul 13 1230 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # Forecast Discussion # Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity was at moderate levels. Region 4140 (S14E54, Cao/beta) produced the vast majority of the flare activity, including an M1.6/1f flare (R1-Minor radio blackout), the largest of the period, at 12/1210 UTC. Regions 4137 (N19W66, Dso/beta), 4139 (N22E03, Dai/beta), and newly numbered 4141 (S13W76, Cao/beta) all exhibited growth, while the remaining regions were mostly stable or showed slight decay. No Earth-directed CMEs were detected in available coronagraph imagery. .Forecast... Solar activity is likely to reach moderate (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) levels, with a slight chance for isolated X-class (R3-Strong) events over 13-15 Jul. Energetic Particle .24 hr Summary... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached moderate levels, and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels. .Forecast... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels over 13-15 Jul. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels through 15 Jul. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... Solar wind parameters continued to reflect increasing positive polarity CH HSS influence. Total magnetic field strength reached 14 nT early in the period before decreasing slightly to end the period near 7 nT. The Bz component briefly reached as far south as -10 nT, and solar wind speeds steadily increased to a peak near 725 km/s. The phi angle remained positive throughout most of the period. .Forecast... Elevated solar wind parameters are expected to persist over 13-15 Jul due to continued positive polarity CH HSS influence. Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic field reached G1 (Minor) storm levels due to positive polarity CH HSS influence. .Forecast... The geomagnetic field is expected to reach active levels on 13 Jul, with a chance for G1 (Minor) storming, followed by quiet to unsettled levels on 14-15 Jul due to continued influence from a positive polarity CH HSS.