Drought Information Statement
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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TXC013-019-021-029-031-053-055-091-123-127-137-149-163-171-177-
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Drought Information Statement...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
323 PM CDT Tue Sep 22 2020

...Abnormally Dry to Extreme Drought Conditions persist across
primarily western portions of South Central Texas...

SYNOPSIS...

Corrected to denote that San Antonio remains in Stage 1
restrictions.

Drought conditions have improved over northern portions of the region
recently. Abnormally Dry (D0) conditions remain for Williamson,
northwest Travis, and western Llano County in the September 17th
issuance of the Drought Monitor. Drought also extends from south
of Eagle Pass to New Braunfels to Rocksprings, with worsening
conditions to Severe Drought (D2) in northwest Val Verde and in
Uvalde, Zavala, and portions of Maverick and Dimmit Counties.
Extreme Drought (D3) remains for western Zavala and southwest
Uvalde. After reaching a maximum of 93% of the area under D0 or
worse on September 1st, that`s come down to 55%. For D2 or worse,
30% of the area was outlooked on the 1st and it`s already down to
13%.

SUMMARY OF IMPACTS...

Water Restrictions.

Austin - Conservation Stage
Del Rio - Stage 1
Fredericksburg - Stage 1 (voluntary after Sept. 30)
Kerrville - Year Round Conservation
New Braunfels - Stage 1
San Antonio - Stage 1
San Marcos - Stage 1
Uvalde - Stage 1

Other locations may have water conservation or restriction rules
so be sure to check for your location.

Edwards Aquifer information:

Current Level     2019 Level      September Average     Difference
   663.5 ft        666.3 ft          660.6 ft          +2.9 ft

Reservoir levels have recovered over the past 4-5 weeks and are
now above September average values as a result of above average
rainfall recently over portions of the basin.

Reservoir Conditions as of September 21, 2020...

Below is a list of reservoirs with the latest elevations and
normal pools.

              Conservation Pool    Latest Elevation    Difference
                    (FT)                 (FT)             (FT)

Lake Amistad        1117                1071.5            -45.5
Medina Lake         1064.2              1039.7            -24.5
Canyon Lake          909                 905.8             -3.2
Lake Buchanan       1020                1015.5             -4.5
Lake Travis          681                 662.4            -18.6

Soil Moisture Impacts.

As of September 21, 2020, the Climate Prediction Center (CPC)
indicated the percent of available soil moisture has recovered
back into the near-normal range across most if not all of South
Central Texas. This means the available soil moisture is between
the 30th and 70th percentile for this date. Far western Val Verde
County is right near the 30th percentile.

Fire Danger Hazards.

Fire Danger Map - September 21, 2020
According to the latest Observed Fire Danger Map from the Texas
Interagency Coordination Center (TICC), the majority of south-
central Texas was under a Low Fire Danger rating. Moderate fire
danger was present across primarily the area between Eagle Pass
and San Antonio.

Texas A&M Forest Service indicated Keetch-Byram Drought Index
(KBDI) values lowered significantly since the last Drought
Statement across much of the area, and now ranges from
200-700 with most counties in the 400-600 range. KBDI is an index
used to determine forest fire potential, which is based on a
daily water balance considering precipitation and soil moisture.
The KBDI can range from 0 to 800, where a value of 0 represents no
moisture depletion, and 800 would be representative of absolutely
dry conditions. A KBDI between 600 and 800 is often associated
with severe drought and increased wildfire potential.

County KBDI values as of September 21, 2020:

200-300     300-400     400-500     500-600     600-700
Burnett     Atascosa    Bexar       Bandera     Medina
Hays        Blanco      Caldwell    Bastrop     Zavala
Karnes      Edwards     Comal       Dimmit
Wilson      Kendall     DeWitt      Fayette
            Llano       Gillespie   Frio
            Travis      Gonzales    Lavaca
                        Guadalupe   Lee
                        Kerr        Maverick
                        Kinney      Uvalde
                        Real        Williamson
                        Val Verde

Texas A&M Forest Service maps indicated that burn bans are in
effect for 30 counties across the region. As of September 21, 2020:

Counties with burn bans currently in place:
Bandera       Kinney
Bexar         Maverick
Dimmit        Medina
Edwards       Real
Frio          Val Verde
Karnes        Zavala


Counties without burn bans currently in place:
Atascosa      Guadalupe
Bastrop       Hays
Blanco        Kendall
Burnet        Kerr
Caldwell      Lavaca
Comal         Lee
DeWitt        Llano
Fayette       Travis
Gillespie     Uvalde
Gonzales      Williamson
              Wilson


Agricultural Impacts.

The Texas Crop and Weather report from Texas A&M AgriLife as of:
September 9, 2020

-Parts of the district reported up to 2 inches of rainfall.
-Areas that did not receive moisture continued to experience extremely dry conditions.
-Corn and grain sorghum harvests complete; average to good yields.
-Livestock in fair shape with supplemental feeding.
-Cattle, sheep, and goat prices steady, fall shearing continued
-Home gardeners have started planting fall gardens.

LOCAL DROUGHT OUTLOOK...

While recent trends have been good in terms of drought
improvement, the outlook is for drier than normal conditions to
return and likely for a while.

In the short term, after Tropical Storm Beta exits the region,
the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) 8 to 14 day outlook made
September 21 and valid September 29-October 5 is calling for
greater chances for below average temperatures (33-40%) and for
below average rainfall (40-50%). The week 3-4 outlook created Sept
18 and valid Oct 3-16 continues the likely dry pattern (50-55%)
while indicating good chances for warmer than normal conditions to
return (55-60%).

With an El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) pattern that is
showing increasing favorability for La Nina development as we
head into the fall, a La Nina Advisory was issued on September
11th. The typical La Nina pattern of below- normal sea surface
temperatures has translated into an active Atlantic Basin
Hurricane season. Although we`re now past the peak of the season,
it doesn`t officially end until Nov. 30. La Nina years in South-
Central Texas are typically warmer and drier than normal with this
signal becoming strongest in the winter. Thus, there is a good
chance that over the next several months there will be some
deterioration in drought status once again.

Local Rainfall for the Year to Date.

                     2020      Normal    Departure    Percent of
                    to Date   to Date   from Normal     Normal

Austin Bergstrom     32.25"    24.54"     +7.71"         131%
Austin Mabry         29.72"    24.29"     +5.43"         122%
Del Rio              11.22"    15.04"     -3.82"          75%
San Antonio          18.14"    23.11"     -4.97"          78%

NEXT ISSUANCE DATE...
This product will be updated around October 22, 2020 or sooner
if necessary in response to significant changes in conditions.

&&

RELATED WEB SITES...
Additional information on current drought conditions may be found
at the following web addresses:

US Drought Monitor:
http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu

US Drought Information System:
http://www.drought.gov

NOAA Drought Page:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought

Austin/San Antonio NWS...http://www.weather.gov/EWX

ADDITIONAL RIVER INFORMATION...

National Weather Service:
http://water.weather.gov

US Geological Survey:
http://water.usgs.gov

US Army Corps of Engineers:
http://www.usace.army.mil

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS...
The Drought Monitor is a multi-agency effort involving NOAA`s
National Weather Service and the National Climatic Data Center,
the USDA, State,and Regional Center Climatologists and the
National Drought Mitigation Center. Information for this
statement has been gathered from NWS FAA observation sites, State
Cooperative Extension Services, the USDA, USACE, and USGS.

CONTACT INFORMATION...
If you have questions or comments about this Drought Information
Statement, please contact:

National Weather Service
2090 Airport Road
New Braunfels Texas 78130
830-629-0130 Press 2
E-mail: sr-ewx.webmaster@noaa.gov

$$



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