Drought Information Statement
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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TXC013-019-021-029-031-053-055-091-123-127-137-149-163-171-177-
187-209-255-259-265-271-285-287-299-323-325-385-453-463-465-491-
493-507-160130-

Drought Information Statement
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
835 PM CDT Fri Jul 13 2018

...ABNORMALLY DRY TO EXTREME DROUGHT CONDITIONS REMAIN ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...

SYNOPSIS...

Dry conditions have improved slightly across much of the
area,especially across the western half of the region. After a
week of scattered rainfall from July 4th through July 9th across
the region, high pressure was building back over south central
Texas and drier and hotter weather is expected for several days.
Many locations over the western third of south central Texas have
reported less than three inches of rainfall since January 1, 2018.
For the remainder of the summer we will have to watch for
easterly waves to move west across the Gulf of Mexico into Texas
to increase the moisture over the region and help produce
rainfall. Lake and reservoirs continue to fall with high
evaporation rates and the increases in water consumption. These
declines in levels will continue over the next several months
without rainfall to provide inflows. Most locations have imposed
varying stages of water restrictions due to the direr than average
conditions. Fifteen counties currently have county-wide burn bans
due to continuing dry conditions. Several counties have seen
grass and brush fires the last few months and officials are
expecting additional fires if wetting rains are not observed.

The Climate Prediction Center (CPC) is forecasting ENSO neutral
conditions from now into the summer. Even though La Nina and El
Nino events have significant impacts across South Texas, other
circulations across the globe help drive weather patterns too, so
we should not just be looking at one pattern, but others as well
to potentially provide rainfall for the region.

The US Drought Monitor (USDM) valid July 10th and issued on July
12th indicated drought conditions have improved due to the early
July rainfall across many sections of South Central Texas.
Abnormally dry (D0) to Extreme (D3) drought conditions were
present across South Central Texas. The driest locations were
located along and to the west of Interstate 35.

Currently 75 percent of the state is in Abnormally dry (D0) to
Exceptional (D4) drought conditions.

SUMMARY OF IMPACTS...

FIRE DANGER IMPACTS...

Fire danger was low to moderate. During periods were wetting
rainfall is not observed then fire danger threats will continue to
increase.

As of July 13th, there were 15 counties with county-wide burn
bans in effect across south Central Texas. There were 18 counties
with no burn bans currently in effect.

Counties that currently have burn bans in place:

Bexar
Blanco
Burnet
Dimmit
Edwards
Frio
Gillespie
Guadalupe
Kerr
Kinney
Llano
Maverick
Val Verde
Wilson
Zavala

Counties currently without county-wide burn bans:

Atascosa
Bandera
Bastrop
Caldwell
Comal
DeWitt
Fayette
Gonzales
Hays
Karnes
Kendall
Lavaca
Lee
Medina
Real
Travis
Uvalde
Williamson

Residents in all counties should contact their local city or
county web site, Judge`s office or Fire Marshall before deciding
to conduct any type of outdoor burning as burn bans may be issued
before the next update of this drought statement.

The June 14th County Keetch-Byram Drought Index (KBDI) showed the
following KBDI values:

200-300     300-400      400-500     500-600     600-700

Lavaca      Bandera      Atascosa    Dimmit      Maverick
            Bexar        Bastrop     Edwards     Zavala
            DeWitt       Blanco      Frio
            Fayette      Burnet      Gillespie
            Karnes       Caldwell    Kerr
                         Comal       Kinney
                         Gonzales    Llano
                         Guadalupe   Real
                         Hays        Uvalde
                         Kendall     Val Verde
                         Lee         Williamson
                         Medina
                         Travis
                         Wilson

The Texas Forest Service uses the KBDI as a means for relating
current and recent weather conditions to potential or expected
fire behavior. The KBDI is a numerical index calculated daily for
each county. Each number is an estimate of the amount of
precipitation, in hundredths of an inch, needed to bring the soil
back to saturation. The index ranges from zero to 800, with zero
representing a saturated soil and 800 a completely dry soil.
Remember, that fire danger can change quickly from one day to
another as winds and relative humidity vary.

AGRICULTURAL IMPACTS...

The Texas Crop and Weather Report issued by Texas A&M on July
10th almost all counties reported rainfall and cooler
temperatures. Conditions were so poor, little improvement was
noted. Without more rainfall, pasture and rangeland conditions
will continue to deteriorate. Areas severely damaged by drought
will likely not recover immediately. Wildlife were expected to
benefit from the rains.

CLIMATE SUMMARY...

The next several days are expected to see increasing temperatures
and no rainfall.


Precipitation from January 1, 2018 to midnight July 12, 2018 and
departure from normal:

                   2018      Normal  Departure from   Percent of
                                         Normal      Normal to
Date
Austin Mabry      16.92       18.71      -1.79           90%
Austin Bergstrom  13.61       19.43      -5.82           70%
San Antonio       12.82       17.54      -4.72           73%
Del Rio            3.32       10.27      -6.95           32%

For July to date, Del Rio has received 1.17 inches of rainfall.
This is 0.45 of an inch above the normal of 0.72 of an inch. The
average temperature for July to date is 85.6 degrees. This is
0.1 degrees below the normal of 85.7 degrees.

For July to date, San Antonio International Airport has received
4.57 inches of rain. This is 3.14 inches above the normal of
1.43 inches. The average temperature at the San Antonio
International Airport for July to date is 84.3 degrees. This is
0.2 degrees above the normal of 84.1 degrees.

For July to date, Austin Mabry has received 4.02 inches of
rain. This is 3.17 inches above the normal of 1.65 inches.
The average temperature at Austin Mabry for July to date is 85.1
degrees. This is 0.9 degrees above the normal of 84.2 degrees.

For July to date, Austin Bergstrom International Airport has
received 1.26 inches of rain. This is 0.77 of an inch above
the normal of 1.19 inches. The average temperature at the Austin
Bergstrom International Airport for July to date is 84.3
degrees. This is 1.4 degrees above the normal of 82.9 degrees.

PRECIPITATION/TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK...

The latest Climate Prediction Center (CPC) 8 to 14 day outlook
issued July 13th and valid July 21st through July 27th was
indicating stronger signals for above average temperatures
and stronger signals for below average precipitation.

The longer range outlook for August 2018 through October 2018
created on June 21st was indicating stronger signals for above
average temperatures and below average precipitation.

HYDROLOGIC SUMMARY AND OUTLOOK...

After one early July rainfall event the majority of the region
has started to dry out once again. because of the recent rainfall
most locations have recently seen some slight improvements in
drought conditions.

The 7 day stream flow averages for the Rio Grande, Pecos, Nueces,
Guadalupe and Colorado basins were showing below normal
(10-24 percent) stream flows. The Frio and Medina basins were
seeing normal (25-75 percent) stream flows. The San Antonio basin
was seeing above normal (76-90 percent) stream flows.

RESERVOIR CONDITIONS AS OF July 13th...

Below is a list of reservoirs with the latest elevations and
normal pools.

              Conservation Pool    Latest Elevation    Difference
                    (FT)                 (FT)             (FT)

Lake Amistad        1117                1084.1            -32.9
Medina Lake         1064.2              1039.3            -24.9
Canyon Lake          909                 903.9             -5.1
Lake Georgetown      791                 779.3            -11.7
Lake Buchanan       1020                1013.8             -6.2
Lake Travis          681                 659.2            -21.8

Restrictions...

The San Antonio Water System (SAWS) is currently in Stage 2 water
restrictions.

Latest Readings from the Edwards Aquifer:

 Current      2017 Level   Departure    July  Departure from
  Level      on this date  from 2017   Average       Average

 655.1 FT      658.1 FT     -3.0 FT     660.2 FT       -5.1 FT

Many communities across South Central Texas are now into
various stages of water restrictions.

The Barton Springs Edwards Aquifer Conservation District is
currently in no drought status.

Location          Current Water Restrictions

Fredericksburg    Stage 3
New Braunfels     Stage 2
San Marcos        Stage 2
Uvalde            Stage 1
Austin            Conservation Stage
Kerrville         Year round conservation measures

All cities continue to warn residents that stricter restrictions
could return at any time if drier conditions develop.

Locations that do not currently have mandatory restrictions
continue to strongly promote year round water conservation.

NEXT ISSUANCE DATE...

This product will be issued again on August 9, 2018 or sooner if
conditions warrant.

&&

RELATED WEB SITES...

For further information on the drought impacting South Central
Texas, please visit the following web addresses.

Austin/San Antonio National Weather Service:
weather.gov/austin
weatehr.gov/sanantonio
weatehr.gov/ewx

Climate Prediction Center:
cpc.ncep.noaa/gov

U.S.Drought Monitor:
droughtmonitor.unl.edu

Office of the Texas State Climatologist:
climatexas.tamu.edu

United States Geologic Survey (USGS):
water.usgs.gov

United States Army Corps of Engineers (USACE):
swf.usace.army.mil

International Boundary and Water Commission:
ibwc.state/gov

Acknowledgments...

The drought monitor is a multi-agency effort involving NOAA`s
National Weather Service, National Climatic Data Center, the
USDA, State and Regional Center Climatologist and the National
Drought Mitigation Center. Information for this statement has
been  gathered from NWS and FAA Observation sites, State
Cooperative Extension Service, the USDA, USACE AND USGS.

QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS...

If you have any questions or comments about this Drought
Information Statement, please contact...

National Weather Service
2090 Airport Road
New Braunfels Texas 78130
830-606-3617 Press 2

$$



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