Fire Weather Outlook Discussion
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000
FNUS28 KWNS 162124
FWDD38

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0322 PM CST Sat Nov 16 2019

Valid 181200Z - 241200Z

A series of mid-level shortwave troughs will propagate across the
central and eastern CONUS throughout the extended term. Mid-level
ridging will persist across the western CONUS through Days
3-4/Monday-Tuesday, with a mid-level cut-off low slowly traversing
the region through at least Day 6/Thursday. Cool and occasionally
rainy conditions will accompany this overall progressive upper-level
pattern, limiting widespread wildfire-growth potential across much
of the CONUS. A few exceptions include a weakening pressure gradient
across southern California early Day 3/Monday, where a dry and
breezy offshore flow event will be on the wane. At least patchy
dry/breezy conditions may also occur across parts of the southern
High Plains Days 4/Tuesday and northern California on Day
5/Wednesday.

...Day 3/Monday...
As lingering high pressure begins to shunt eastward, the pressure
gradient across southern California will gradually weaken throughout
the day. Still, strong and dry offshore flow is expected to be in
progress at the start of Day 3, with at least localized critical
wind/RH conditions expected. Given the relatively short-lived nature
of the potentially critical conditions, 40% critical probabilities
will remain in place for parts of the southern Transverse Ranges.

...Day 4/Tuesday...
With low-level lee-troughing developing across the High Plains, and
high pressure moving across the Four Corners area, a corridor of
near-critically dry and breezy downslope flow may develop across
portions of eastern New Mexico into the Texas Panhandle by afternoon
peak heating. The localized and brief nature of these conditions
(based on latest guidance) precludes probabilities for critical
conditions at this time, especially given the lack of larger-scale
upper-level support.

...Day 5/Wednesday...
As a surface low deepens across southern California, northerly winds
are expected across portions of northern California. Dry and breezy
downslope winds are likely within the Sacramento Valley by peak
afternoon heating, where boundary-layer mixing may transport a belt
of stronger northerly flow aloft to the surface. Questions remain
regarding how dry this airmass will be, with probabilities for
critical conditions withheld for now, though conditions will
continue to be monitored.

..Squitieri.. 11/16/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

$$


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