Fire Weather Outlook Discussion
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FNUS28 KWNS 242056

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0354 PM CDT Sun May 24 2020

Valid 261200Z - 011200Z

There is a continued signal in model guidance for an upper-level
cutoff low to develop within the southern Plains by D3/Tuesday. As
is usually the case with these features, models have been
inconsistent in the exact positioning of the cutoff as the week
progresses. Even with that uncertainty, it appears that upper-level
ridging will flank the cutoff to the east and west and the strongest
upper-level flow will generally reside near the Canadian border.
Rain and thunderstorms associated with the cutoff as well as more
diurnally-driven activity in the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic will
limit fire weather concerns in those regions. With the upper-level
ridge building across the West, the chance for isolated
thunderstorms will increase towards the end of the week. The timing
and degree of moisture return will be dependent on when the cutoff
moves east/dissipates. Late in the period, guidance has suggested a
trough deepening in the Northeast, though the degree of deepening
has been variable over the last few days of model runs.

Guidance also remains consistent in placing a potent shortwave
trough approaching the West Coast and moving into the Pacific
Northwest during the weekend. This will bring potential for wind/RH
fire weather concerns within the western Great Basin. Thunderstorms
will be possible in the Pacific Northwest after a period of drying
fuels. Concern for lightning ignitions will be dependent on the
state of fuels as a majority of storms will bring wetting rainfall.
Timing difference between the trough between GFS/ECMWF keep
confidence low enough that highlights for either threat will be

..Wendt.. 05/24/2020

...Please see for graphic product...

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