Fire Weather Outlook Discussion
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453
FNUS28 KWNS 262101
FWDD38

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0259 PM CST Wed Feb 26 2020

Valid 281200Z - 051200Z

A fairly progressive pattern is expected to be in place through the
forecast period, with a mid-level trough moving across the eastern
CONUS, a mid-level ridge moving across the central CONUS, and
another upper trough traversing the western CONUS Day 3/Friday into
Day 4/Saturday. On Saturday, the southwest CONUS upper trough will
approach the south-central US, inducing surface lee troughing across
the central and southern High Plains. The upper trough will then
deepen as it ejects into the Plains Days 5-6/Sunday-Monday, with
surface low development and associated westerly downslope flow
taking shape across the southern High Plains each day. Towards Days
7-8/Tuesday-Wednesday, a cold front is expected to sweep across the
central/southern Plains bringing about cooler temperatures, but
breezy conditions.

...Days 3-5/Friday-Sunday...
The approach of a shortwave upper trough and subsequent surface low
development in the Plains will promote very dry, breezy conditions
across parts of the southern High Plains on Day 4/Saturday and Day
5/Sunday, as supported by a consensus among medium range guidance
members. Given the relative lack of recent and forecast rainfall up
to this point, and preceding days of a low-level dry airmass in
place, finer fuels may become at least modestly receptive to
wildfire spread. 40% probabilities for a critical delineation have
been added for areas where guidance members show the greatest
agreement in potential overlapping critical winds/RH.

Dry and breezy conditions will also prevail along the East Coast
during the afternoon hours each day, Days 3-5/Friday-Sunday. While
much of the region would have experienced accumulating rainfall in
the Days 1-2 time frame, multiple days of dry and breezy conditions
without further accumulating precipitation suggest that some of the
finer fuels may cure within this period.

...Days 6-8/Monday-Wednesday...
Deterministic model guidance begins to vary substantially regarding
the timing/position of the cold front across the southern High
Plains Day 6/Monday, and the subsequent evolution of the post-cold
frontal environment Days 7-8/Tuesday-Wednesday. Breezy conditions
with relatively little precipitation accumulation are expected
across the southern High Plains next week, with some guidance
members hinting at warmer, drier surface conditions. Should guidance
demonstrate more agreement in overlapping critically dry RH with the
aforementioned stronger winds, probabilities for critical
delineations may need to be added across the southern High Plains in
future outlooks.

..Squitieri.. 02/26/2020

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

$$



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