Fire Weather Outlook Discussion
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FNUS22 KWNS 130712

Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0211 AM CDT Sun Jun 13 2021

Valid 141200Z - 151200Z


South to southwesterly upper-level flow is expected to persist along
the West coast for the beginning of the work week. Although surface
pressure falls will be modest over the broader inter-mountain West,
strengthening mid-level flow coupled with deep boundary-layer mixing
and hot/dry conditions will support a fire weather threat for parts
of the Great Basin. Other localized threats may evolved across
coastal Southern California and central New Mexico.

...Great Basin...
Little to no moisture recovery is expected across the Great Basin
over the next 48 hours, which will yield another day of single digit
to low teen relative humidity values. Winds will increase to 15-25
mph across much of NV and western UT with a smaller corridor of
20-25 mph sustained winds likely within this area. Short and medium
range ensemble guidance show reasonably high probabilities for
critical wind/RH conditions, likely being driven by increasing flow
aloft amid deep boundary-layer mixing. Recent fire activity and
reports indicate fuels are receptive for most of NV and western UT,
and should remain receptive through early this week. Expansion of
the critical risk area is possible into parts of northwest UT if
fuels cure sufficiently by Monday afternoon.

...Southern California...
Northerly pressure-gradient winds are forecast to increase late
Monday night into early Tuesday along the southern CA coast as high
pressure builds to the north. Resulting Sundowner winds could lead
to areas of elevated fire weather conditions across Santa Barbra
county, though confidence in the wind and RH forecast is somewhat
low given the somewhat modest pressure gradient and marine moisture
currently in place.

...New Mexico...
Isolated thunderstorms are expected to develop within the southern
Rockies Monday afternoon. Mid-level moisture atop a deep, dry
boundary layer may support a few dry lightning strikes. However, the
coverage of storms is expected to be somewhat low, and PWAT values
between 0.5 to 0.75 inches suggest a mixture of wet and dry

..Moore.. 06/13/2021

...Please see for graphic product...

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