Fire Weather Outlook Discussion
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FNUS22 KWNS 201813
FWDDY2

Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0113 PM CDT Tue Oct 20 2020

Valid 211200Z - 221200Z

Adjustments to the northern California elevated have been made to
better align with recent guidance. Winds during the afternoon will
generally be light with a few exceptions within the northern
Sacramento Valley and other terrain-favored locations. The pressure
gradient will increase during the evening and overnight. Winds in
the northern and western Valley may approach 20 mph by early
Thursday morning. Duration of these potentially critical conditions
is still too uncertain to add critical highlights.

Localized areas of fire weather concern are still possible ahead of
the cold front that will be situated across the northern Great
Basin. The more favorable wind/RH combinations will likely occur
over mostly desert terrain. Dry fuels still exist within much
southern/eastern Utah into central Colorado. Locally elevated to
near critical conditions may occur briefly during the afternoon.

..Wendt.. 10/20/2020

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0139 AM CDT Tue Oct 20 2020/

...Synopsis...
The mid-level zonal flow pattern across the northern tier of the
U.S. will undergo amplification off the West Coast late
Day2/Wednesday. The increasing flow aloft and high pressure moving
onshore will increase surface pressure gradients across portions of
the West Coast. Lingering hot and dry conditions will likely support
elevated to near critical fire weather potential.

...Northern Central California...
Dry northerly/northeasterly surface winds will persist within the
northern Sacramento Valley vicinity through Wednesday. Flow is
forecast to increase later in the day as the northerly gradient
begin to tighten ahead of a maritime cold front. Dry downslope flow
will result in poor overnight humidity recoveries, and gusty surface
winds. Model soundings show boundary-layer gusts near 30 mph, and
humidity as low as 10%. Elevated to near critical fire weather
conditions appear likely given abundant critical fuels.

...Eastern Great Basin...
Flow aloft will increase late in the forecast period ahead of the
amplifying West Coast trough. Momentum transport from deep vertical
mixing may bolster low-level westerly winds enough to support some
locally elevated fire weather conditions overnight. Uncertainty
remains high enough on the spatial/temporal coverage of low humidity
and stronger winds that no areas have been added at this time.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

$$



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