Fire Weather Outlook Discussion
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FNUS22 KWNS 031953

Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0252 PM CDT Wed Jun 03 2020

Valid 041200Z - 051200Z

Much of the previous forecast remains on track. Latest model
guidance depicts elevated conditions across southwestern portions of
the Great Basin. Stronger flow aloft associated with an approaching
upper low will barely glance the area by afternoon peak heating,
promoting 15-20 mph sustained southwesterly winds coinciding with
10-20% RH. At the moment, the surface wind field still appears too
weak for the addition of a critical area. In addition, very isolated
thunderstorms may produce a couple dry strikes across portions of
central Nevada into western Utah. However, marginally receptive
fuels and the sparse storm coverage preclude an isolated dry
thunderstorm delineation at this time.

Otherwise, the previous forecast regarding the northern and central
Rockies remains on track (see below for details).

..Squitieri.. 06/03/2020

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0123 AM CDT Wed Jun 03 2020/

The ridge of high pressure over the Southwest will shift to the east
under the influence of the upper low moving onshore across
California. A belt of stronger southwesterly flow is forecast to
overspread portions of the Great Basin and Southwest, bringing dry
and windy conditions to the region. Elevated fire weather conditions
will be likely and an Elevated area has been added.

...Southern Great Basin into portions of Utah and Arizona...
A belt of 30 to 40 kt mid-level flow is expected along the eastern
fringe of the upper low moving into California. Surface RH of 10-15%
and winds of 20-25 mph will likely support widespread elevated and
locally critical fire weather conditions. Fuels are receptive for
fire spread with ERCs running above average across much of southern
Nevada and southwestern Utah. Some uncertainty exists on the
strength of mid-level flow, with the GFS stronger and farther east
than the ECMWF or NAM. There is a possibility that some areas of
critical fire weather may become more clear and need to be
highlighted in coming forecast cycles, though no Critical areas are
clear at this time.

...Eastern slopes of the Northern/Central Rockies...
Stronger westerly flow under the mid-level jet will promote gusty
downslope winds of 20-25 kt across much of the region. Surface RH is
forecast to fall to around 20-25% and locally elevated conditions
may occur. Fuels remain only modestly receptive given recent
precipitation and early season green up, and no areas Elevated areas
were added.

...Please see for graphic product...

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