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Fire Weather Outlook Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
443 FNUS22 KWNS 261935 FWDDY2 Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0235 PM CDT Fri Jul 26 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z The main change to the Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook Update was to expand isolated dry thunderstorm highlights westward to include portions of western Idaho into eastern Oregon. The lack of upper-level support and shallow buoyancy suggests that thunderstorm development in these areas should be more sparse compared to places farther east. Still, fuel beds in these areas remain receptive to fire spread wherever dry strikes may occur, necessitating the expanse of isolated dry thunderstorm highlights this outlook. Otherwise, the previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Squitieri.. 07/26/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0158 AM CDT Fri Jul 26 2024/ ...Synopsis... As a mid-level trough progresses eastward from California into the northern Great Basin on Saturday, isolated dry thunderstorms are expected across portions of eastern Idaho, southwestern Montana, western Wyoming, and portions of far northern Utah. This trough is also expected to bring dry and windy conditions to much of southern Nevada into southwestern Utah. ...Dry Thunder... An approaching trough from California is expected to bring chances for isolated dry thunderstorms to portions of Idaho, Montana, Wyoming, and Utah. Recent wetting rainfall could potentially limit some lightning ignitions, but pockets of receptive fuels still remain across much of the highlight area. Dry boundary-layer profiles will support gusty thunderstorm outflow that could contribute to wildfire spread with any lightning based ignitions. ...Southern Great Basin... Relative humidity of 5-10% and wind speeds of 25-30 MPH are expected across southern Nevada into southwestern Utah, exceeding the meteorological criteria for critical conditions. However, there is uncertainty in the receptiveness of fuels to wildfire spread due to recent significant wetting rainfall, precluding the inclusion of critical highlights at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... $$