213
FNUS22 KWNS 151939
FWDDY2

Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0238 PM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026

Valid 161200Z - 171200Z

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MIDDLE AND LOWER TEXAS COAST...

Dry, post-frontal northerly flow is still expected to bring fire
weather concerns into portions of central and southern TX on
D2/Monday. Farther west, dry return flow on the western periphery of
surface high pressure settling into the Plains will bring an
Elevated fire weather threat to southeastern NM and far west TX.

...Southern and Central Texas...
Stronger northerly flow will commence this evening across southern
TX as a robust cold front quickly moves southward. Showers and
thunderstorms are more likely to develop along the cold front near
and east of the Houston metro area tonight into Monday morning,
leaving much of southern TX dry. Sustained north winds of 15-25 mph
and relative humidity between 15-25% by Monday afternoon are likely
across portions of the middle and lower TX Coast areas where fuels
remain very dry, including ongoing severe drought across far
southern TX. These conditions necessitated introduction of Critical
Highlights within a broader Elevated fire weather threat across
central/southern TX.

...Eastern New Mexico into west Texas...
Dry return flow on the western fringe of surface high pressure
settling into the central U.S. will affect portions of southeastern
NM and west TX Monday. A dry air mass will be in place across much
of the southern High Plains in the wake of a cold front. South winds
of 15-20 mph will develop and align with relative humidity of around
15% (despite considerably cooler temperatures) to bring an Elevated
fire weather threat to east-central and southeastern NM as well as
portions of western TX where dry fuels remain.

..Williams.. 03/15/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1253 AM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026/

...Synopsis...
Post frontal northerly flow will shift into southern/central Texas
for D2/Monday, with Elevated fire weather conditions expected. Dry
return flow will bring Elevated fire weather concerns across eastern
New Mexico into western Texas as a high builds across the southern
Plains and moves into the lower Mississippi River Valley.

...Eastern New Mexico into west Texas...
Across eastern New Mexico into western Texas, south to southeast
winds 10-15 mph will overlap relative humidity reductions to around
15-20%. An Elevated was maintained with this outlook to support this
threat. Fuels in this region are expected to be critically dry after
multiple days of dry/wind conditions.

...Southern/Central Texas...
Behind the southward advancing cold front, relative humidity
reductions to around 15-25% (locally around 10% in south Texas) will
overlap sustained north winds at 10-20 mph across portions of the
south Texas Brush Country to the Rio Grande Valley and across the
Middle Texas Coast. The D3 40 percent was maintained and expanded
across the coast with this update. Fuels across the south Texas
Brush Country are critically dry, with ERCs forecast to be around
the 75-90th percentile. Fuels across the middle Texas coast region
are more marginal but are forecast to be around the 50-75th
percentile by D2/Monday.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

$$