Routine Fire Wx Fcst (With/Without 6-10 Day Outlook)
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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FNUS54 KMRX 121939
FWFMRX

Fire Weather Planning Forecast for East Tennessee...Southwest
Virginia...and Extreme Southwest North Carolina
National Weather Service Morristown TN
239 PM EST Mon Nov 12 2018

.DISCUSSION...

An area of low pressure will continue to bring light rain to the
region tonight as a cold front moves eastward. This will bring
colder air to the region through midweek. Drier air will result in a
brief break in precipitation from Tuesday night through Wednesday.
More rain arrives Wednesday night as another low pressure system
approaches.



VAZ001-002-005-006-008-132045-
Jefferson National Forest/Virginia District 6-
239 PM EST Mon Nov 12 2018

                      Tonight      Tue          Tue Night    Wed

Cloud cover           Cloudy       MCldy        MCldy        MCldy
Temp (24h trend)      37-42 (+2)   41-46 (+1)   25-30        41-46
RH % (24h trend)      95-100 (+21) 68-73 (+18)  90-95        51-56
20ft Wind-AM(mph)                  N  5                      LGT/VAR
20ft Wind-PM(mph)     LGT/VAR      N  7         LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR
Precip type           Rain         Showers      None         Showers
Chance precip (%)     90           70           0            20
Precip duration       7            2                         1
Precip begin          7 PM         Continuing                1 PM
Precip end            Continuing   6 PM                      Continuing
Precip amount         0.31         0.09         0.00         0.01
LAL                   1            1            1            1
LASI/Haines                        2                         4
Mixing hgt(ft-MSL)                 3800                      3600
Mixing hgt(ft-AGL)*                1800                      1600
Transport wnd (mph)                N 13                      NE  9
Vent Rate (mph-ft)                 49400                     32400
Dispersion                         18 Gen poor               12 Poor
Max LVORI                          5                         4
33ft wind-AM(mph)                  N  6                      NE  5
33ft wind-PM(mph)     E  5         N  8         N  6         NE  5

Remarks...None.

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Showers likely. Lows in the 20s to upper 30s.
East winds up to 10 mph.
.THURSDAY...Showers likely. Highs in the 30s to upper 40s. South
winds up to 10 mph.
.THURSDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Lows in the
20s to mid 30s. West winds up to 10 mph.
.FRIDAY...Partly cloudy. Highs in the 30s to upper 40s. West
winds less than 10 mph.
.SATURDAY...Partly cloudy. Lows in the lower 30s. Highs in the
lower 40s to mid 50s. West winds less than 10 mph.
.SUNDAY...Mostly cloudy. Slight chance of showers. Lows in the
lower 30s. Highs in the upper 30s to lower 50s. North winds less
than 10 mph.
.MONDAY...Partly cloudy. Lows in the mid 30s. Highs in the lower
40s to mid 50s. Southwest winds less than 10 mph.


*The AGL Mixing Height is calculated from an average elevation for
the entire Forecast Zone and should only be used as a guide.
For a specific AGL Mixing Height a Spot Forecast will be needed.

$$

TNZ018-041-043-045-047-132045-
Northern Cherokee National Forest-
239 PM EST Mon Nov 12 2018

                      Tonight      Tue          Tue Night    Wed

Cloud cover           Cloudy       Cloudy       MCldy        MCldy
Temp (24h trend)      38-43 (+5)   41-46 (+1)   27-32        42-47
RH % (24h trend)      95-100 (+18) 75-80 (+26)  89-94        49-54
20ft Wind-AM(mph)                  NW  5                     LGT/VAR
20ft Wind-PM(mph)     SE  6 G18    NW  7 G17    N  5         LGT/VAR
Precip type           Rain         Showers      Showers      Showers
Chance precip (%)     90           80           20           30
Precip duration       8            2            1            1
Precip begin          7 PM         Continuing   Continuing   1 PM
Precip end            Continuing   Continuing   11 PM        Continuing
Precip amount         0.47         0.16         0.01         0.09
LAL                   1            1            1            1
LASI/Haines                        2                         4
Mixing hgt(ft-MSL)                 4200                      3600
Mixing hgt(ft-AGL)*                1400                      900
Transport wnd (mph)                NW 14                     E  8
Vent Rate (mph-ft)                 58800                     28800
Dispersion                         15 Gen poor               5 Very poor
Max LVORI                          6                         5
33ft wind-AM(mph)                  NW  6                     NE  5
33ft wind-PM(mph)     SE  8 G18    NW  9 G17    N  7         E  5

Remarks...None.

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Showers likely. Lows in the 30s to lower 40s.
Southeast winds up to 10 mph.
.THURSDAY...Showers likely. Highs in the upper 30s to lower 50s.
South winds up to 10 mph.
.THURSDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers and snow
showers. Colder. Lows in the 20s to mid 30s. West winds up to
10 mph.
.FRIDAY...Partly cloudy. Highs in the 30s to upper 40s. West
winds up to 10 mph.
.SATURDAY...Mostly clear. Lows in the lower 30s. Highs in the 40s
to mid 50s. West winds less than 10 mph.
.SUNDAY...Mostly cloudy. Slight chance of showers. Lows in the
lower 30s. Highs in the upper 30s to lower 50s. Northwest winds
less than 10 mph.
.MONDAY...Partly cloudy. Lows in the mid 30s. Highs in the lower
40s to mid 50s. West winds less than 10 mph.


*The AGL Mixing Height is calculated from an average elevation for
the entire Forecast Zone and should only be used as a guide.
For a specific AGL Mixing Height a Spot Forecast will be needed.

$$

TNZ072-074-132045-
Tennessee Portion Of The Great Smoky Mountain National Park-
239 PM EST Mon Nov 12 2018

                      Tonight      Tue          Tue Night    Wed

Cloud cover           Cloudy       Cloudy       MCldy        MCldy
Temp (24h trend)      39-44 (+5)   41-46 (-2)   29-34        42-47
RH % (24h trend)      95-100 (+13) 72-77 (+16)  90-95        60-65
20ft Wind-AM(mph)                  NW  6 G16                 NE  5
20ft Wind-PM(mph)     S  6 G22     N  7 G18     N  6 G15     E  5
Precip type           Rain         Showers      Showers      Showers
Chance precip (%)     100          80           20           40
Precip duration       8            2            1            1
Precip begin          7 PM         Continuing   Continuing   1 PM
Precip end            Continuing   Continuing   11 PM        Continuing
Precip amount         0.46         0.15         0.01         0.23
LAL                   1            1            1            1
LASI/Haines                        2                         4
Mixing hgt(ft-MSL)                 4200                      3700
Mixing hgt(ft-AGL)*                1200                      700
Transport wnd (mph)                N 14                      E 13
Vent Rate (mph-ft)                 58800                     48100
Dispersion                         12 Poor                   6 Very poor
Max LVORI                          7                         6
33ft wind-AM(mph)                  NW  8 G16                 NE  7
33ft wind-PM(mph)     S  8 G22     N  9 G18     N  8 G15     E  6

Remarks...None.

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Showers likely. Lows in the mid 30s to lower
40s. Southeast winds up to 10 mph.
.THURSDAY...Showers likely. Highs in the 40s. South winds up to
10 mph.
.THURSDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers and snow
showers. Colder. Lows in the lower 20s to mid 30s. West winds up
to 10 mph.
.FRIDAY...Partly cloudy. Highs in the 40s. West winds up to
10 mph.
.SATURDAY...Mostly clear. Lows in the lower 30s. Highs in the
lower 40s to mid 50s. Northwest winds less than 10 mph.
.SUNDAY...Mostly cloudy. Slight chance of showers. Lows in the
lower 30s. Highs in the 40s to lower 50s. Northwest winds less
than 10 mph.
.MONDAY...Partly cloudy. Lows in the mid 30s. Highs in the lower
40s to mid 50s. West winds less than 10 mph.


*The AGL Mixing Height is calculated from an average elevation for
the entire Forecast Zone and should only be used as a guide.
For a specific AGL Mixing Height a Spot Forecast will be needed.

$$

TNZ087-102-132045-
Southern Cherokee National Forest-
239 PM EST Mon Nov 12 2018

                      Tonight      Tue          Tue Night    Wed

Cloud cover           Cloudy       Cloudy       MCldy        MCldy
Temp (24h trend)      40-45 (+5)   44-49 (0)    31-36        43-48
RH % (24h trend)      95-100 (+1)  69-74 (+1)   92-97        70-75
20ft Wind-AM(mph)                  NW  6 G18                 NE  5
20ft Wind-PM(mph)     SE  5 G16    N  9 G22     N  7 G16     LGT/VAR
Precip type           Rain         Showers      Showers      Showers
Chance precip (%)     100          80           20           40
Precip duration       8            2            1            1
Precip begin          7 PM         Continuing   Continuing   Continuing
Precip end            Continuing   Continuing   Continuing   Continuing
Precip amount         0.47         0.12         0.02         0.29
LAL                   1            1            1            1
LASI/Haines                        2                         4
Mixing hgt(ft-MSL)                 3400                      2800
Mixing hgt(ft-AGL)*                1400                      800
Transport wnd (mph)                N 15                      NE 10
Vent Rate (mph-ft)                 51000                     28000
Dispersion                         17 Gen poor               6 Very poor
Max LVORI                          6                         6
33ft wind-AM(mph)                  NW  8 G18                 NE  6
33ft wind-PM(mph)     SE  6 G16    N 11 G22     N 10         NE  5

Remarks...None.

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Showers likely. Lows in the upper 30s.
Southeast winds up to 10 mph.
.THURSDAY...Showers likely. Highs in the 40s. Southwest winds
less than 10 mph.
.THURSDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Colder. Lows
in the 20s to mid 30s. West winds 5 to 10 mph.
.FRIDAY...Partly cloudy. Highs in the 40s to lower 50s. Northwest
winds less than 10 mph.
.SATURDAY...Mostly clear. Lows in the mid 30s. Highs in the 40s
to upper 50s. Northwest winds less than 10 mph.
.SUNDAY...Partly cloudy. Slight chance of showers. Lows in the
lower 30s. Highs in the 40s to mid 50s. North winds less than
10 mph.
.MONDAY...Partly cloudy. Lows in the upper 30s. Highs in the 40s
to mid 50s. West winds less than 10 mph.


*The AGL Mixing Height is calculated from an average elevation for
the entire Forecast Zone and should only be used as a guide.
For a specific AGL Mixing Height a Spot Forecast will be needed.

$$

NCZ060-061-132045-
Nantahala National Forest-
239 PM EST Mon Nov 12 2018

                      Tonight      Tue          Tue Night    Wed

Cloud cover           Cloudy       Cloudy       MCldy        MCldy
Temp (24h trend)      42-47 (+8)   47-52 (+4)   33-38        45-50
RH % (24h trend)      95-100 (0)   71-76 (+4)   93-98        68-73
20ft Wind-AM(mph)                  NW  5                     LGT/VAR
20ft Wind-PM(mph)     SE  5 G16    NW  7 G18    N  5         LGT/VAR
Precip type           Rain         Showers      Showers      Showers
Chance precip (%)     100          90           20           40
Precip duration       8            3            1            1
Precip begin          7 PM         Continuing   Continuing   Continuing
Precip end            Continuing   Continuing   Continuing   Continuing
Precip amount         0.59         0.17         0.02         0.30
LAL                   1            1            1            1
LASI/Haines                        2                         4
Mixing hgt(ft-MSL)                 3500                      3300
Mixing hgt(ft-AGL)*                1200                      1000
Transport wnd (mph)                N 13                      E  8
Vent Rate (mph-ft)                 45500                     26400
Dispersion                         13 Gen poor               6 Very poor
Max LVORI                          6                         6
33ft wind-AM(mph)                  NW  6                     NE  5
33ft wind-PM(mph)     SE  6 G16    NW  9 G18    N  6         LGT/VAR

Remarks...None.

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Showers likely. Lows in the mid 30s to lower
40s. Southeast winds up to 10 mph.
.THURSDAY...Showers likely. Highs in the 40s. South winds less
than 10 mph.
.THURSDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Colder. Lows
in the 20s to mid 30s. West winds 5 to 10 mph.
.FRIDAY...Mostly clear. Highs in the 40s to lower 50s. Northwest
winds less than 10 mph.
.SATURDAY...Mostly clear. Lows in the lower 30s. Highs in the
50s. Northwest winds less than 10 mph.
.SUNDAY...Partly cloudy. Slight chance of showers. Lows in the
lower 30s. Highs in the 40s to mid 50s. North winds less than
10 mph.
.MONDAY...Partly cloudy. Lows in the mid 30s. Highs in the 40s to
mid 50s. West winds less than 10 mph.


*The AGL Mixing Height is calculated from an average elevation for
the entire Forecast Zone and should only be used as a guide.
For a specific AGL Mixing Height a Spot Forecast will be needed.

$$

TNZ015>017-038>040-042-044-046-070-132045-
East Tennessee District East-
239 PM EST Mon Nov 12 2018

                      Tonight      Tue          Tue Night    Wed

Cloud cover           Cloudy       MCldy        MCldy        MCldy
Temp (24h trend)      39-44 (+4)   43-48 (+2)   29-34        44-49
RH % (24h trend)      95-100 (+10) 72-77 (+11)  91-96        53-58
20ft Wind-AM(mph)                  NW  5                     LGT/VAR
20ft Wind-PM(mph)     LGT/VAR      N  7         LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR
Precip type           Rain         Showers      None         Showers
Chance precip (%)     90           70           0            30
Precip duration       7            2                         1
Precip begin          7 PM         Continuing                1 PM
Precip end            Continuing   6 PM                      Continuing
Precip amount         0.32         0.11         0.00         0.08
LAL                   1            1            1            1
LASI/Haines                        2                         4
Mixing hgt(ft-MSL)                 3300                      3100
Mixing hgt(ft-AGL)*                1800                      1600
Transport wnd (mph)                N 10                      NE 10
Vent Rate (mph-ft)                 33000                     31000
Dispersion                         17 Gen poor               14 Gen poor
Max LVORI                          5                         5
33ft wind-AM(mph)                  NW  6                     NE  5
33ft wind-PM(mph)     E  5         N  8         N  5         NE  5

Remarks...None.

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Showers likely. Lows in the 30s to lower 40s.
East winds less than 10 mph.
.THURSDAY...Showers likely. Highs in the 40s to lower 50s. South
winds less than 10 mph.
.THURSDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Lows in the
20s to upper 30s. West winds up to 10 mph.
.FRIDAY...Partly cloudy. Highs in the upper 30s to lower 50s.
West winds less than 10 mph.
.SATURDAY...Mostly clear. Lows in the lower 30s. Highs in the 40s
to mid 50s. West winds less than 10 mph.
.SUNDAY...Mostly cloudy. Slight chance of showers. Lows in the
lower 30s. Highs in the 40s to lower 50s. North winds less than
10 mph.
.MONDAY...Partly cloudy. Lows in the mid 30s. Highs in the lower
40s to mid 50s. Southwest winds less than 10 mph.


*The AGL Mixing Height is calculated from an average elevation for
the entire Forecast Zone and should only be used as a guide.
For a specific AGL Mixing Height a Spot Forecast will be needed.

$$

TNZ012>014-035>037-067>069-071-073-086-132045-
East Tennessee District West-
239 PM EST Mon Nov 12 2018

                      Tonight      Tue          Tue Night    Wed

Cloud cover           Cloudy       MCldy        MCldy        MCldy
Temp (24h trend)      38-43 (+3)   41-46 (-1)   28-33        42-47
RH % (24h trend)      95-100 (+4)  75-80 (+2)   91-96        53-58
20ft Wind-AM(mph)                  N  7 G17                  NE  5
20ft Wind-PM(mph)     LGT/VAR      N  8 G17     N  5         LGT/VAR
Precip type           Rain         Showers      None         Showers
Chance precip (%)     90           60           0            30
Precip duration       6            2                         1
Precip begin          7 PM         Continuing                1 PM
Precip end            Continuing   6 PM                      Continuing
Precip amount         0.28         0.08         0.00         0.13
LAL                   1            1            1            1
LASI/Haines                        2                         4
Mixing hgt(ft-MSL)                 3000                      2800
Mixing hgt(ft-AGL)*                1700                      1500
Transport wnd (mph)                N 14                      NE 12
Vent Rate (mph-ft)                 42000                     33600
Dispersion                         20 Gen poor               14 Gen poor
Max LVORI                          5                         4
33ft wind-AM(mph)                  N  8 G17                  NE  7
33ft wind-PM(mph)     LGT/VAR      N 10 G17     N  6         NE  5

Remarks...None.

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Showers likely. Lows in the 30s to lower 40s.
East winds less than 10 mph.
.THURSDAY...Showers likely. Highs in the 40s. East winds less
than 10 mph shifting to the southwest in the afternoon.
.THURSDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Lows in the
upper 20s to mid 30s. West winds less than 10 mph.
.FRIDAY...Partly cloudy. Highs in the 40s to lower 50s. West
winds less than 10 mph.
.SATURDAY...Mostly clear. Lows in the mid 30s. Highs in the mid
40s to upper 50s. Northwest winds less than 10 mph.
.SUNDAY...Mostly cloudy. Slight chance of showers. Lows in the
lower 30s. Highs in the lower 40s to mid 50s. North winds less
than 10 mph.
.MONDAY...Partly cloudy. Lows in the upper 30s. Highs in the 40s
to mid 50s. Southwest winds less than 10 mph.


*The AGL Mixing Height is calculated from an average elevation for
the entire Forecast Zone and should only be used as a guide.
For a specific AGL Mixing Height a Spot Forecast will be needed.

$$

TNZ077-079>085-097>101-132045-
Cumberland District South-
239 PM EST Mon Nov 12 2018 /139 PM CST Mon Nov 12 2018/

                      Tonight      Tue          Tue Night    Wed

Cloud cover           Cloudy       MCldy        MCldy        MCldy
Temp (24h trend)      38-43 (+3)   41-46 (-1)   31-36        42-47
RH % (24h trend)      95-100 (+2)  75-80 (+2)   90-95        60-65
20ft Wind-AM(mph)                  N  8 G21                  NE  6 G16
20ft Wind-PM(mph)     LGT/VAR      N 10 G23     N  8 G19     NE  5
Precip type           Rain         Showers      None         Showers
Chance precip (%)     90           50           0            40
Precip duration       6            1                         1
Precip begin          7 PM         Continuing                7 AM
Precip end            Continuing   6 PM                      Continuing
Precip amount         0.26         0.06         0.00         0.25
LAL                   1            1            1            1
LASI/Haines                        2                         4
Mixing hgt(ft-MSL)                 2700                      2400
Mixing hgt(ft-AGL)*                1600                      1200
Transport wnd (mph)                N 17                      NE 13
Vent Rate (mph-ft)                 45900                     31200
Dispersion                         23 Fair                   14 Gen poor
Max LVORI                          5                         5
33ft wind-AM(mph)                  N 11 G21                  NE  8 G16
33ft wind-PM(mph)     LGT/VAR      N 13 G23     N 10 G19     NE  6

Remarks...None.

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Showers likely. Lows in the mid 30s to lower
40s. East winds less than 10 mph.
.THURSDAY...Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Highs in the 40s.
Southwest winds less than 10 mph.
.THURSDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy. Slight chance of showers. Lows
in the upper 20s to mid 30s. West winds less than 10 mph.
.FRIDAY...Mostly clear. Highs in the mid 40s to lower 50s.
Northwest winds less than 10 mph.
.SATURDAY...Mostly clear. Lows in the mid 30s. Highs in the 50s
to lower 60s. Northwest winds less than 10 mph.
.SUNDAY...Mostly cloudy. Slight chance of showers. Lows in the
mid 30s. Highs in the 40s to mid 50s. North winds less than
10 mph.
.MONDAY...Mostly clear. Lows in the upper 30s. Highs in the 40s
to upper 50s. West winds less than 10 mph.


*The AGL Mixing Height is calculated from an average elevation for
the entire Forecast Zone and should only be used as a guide.
For a specific AGL Mixing Height a Spot Forecast will be needed.

$$



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